Rural voters may sway race for governor

The candidate most likely to be elected governor next year is the one who can carry rural Georgia.

Odds favor the Republican. No surprise. Georgia is a red state.

Barack Obama made it close. Excluding Jimmy Carter who carried Georgia twice, Obama got a higher percentage here (47 percent) than any other Democratic presidential candidate has since 1964.

Obama carried 34 of Georgia’s 159 counties, but only one – Athens-Clarke County – where blacks comprise less than 30 percent of registered voters. The star-alignment for Obama was unique.

It’s inconceivable that any other candidate could come close to repeating the Obama effect. A Democrat who can’t turn out a phenomenal percentage of the black vote in the general election probably shouldn’t plunk down the qualifying fee to run for one of the top two statewide offices on the ballot in 2010, governor and U.S. senator. And yet one who runs too far left to get it is dog food in the general election in November.

Latest of the Democrats to announce are Attorney General Thurbert Baker and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, a lawyer and newspaper editor.

Baker’s entry seriously complicates life for the three moderate whites who’ve announced or are being urged to announce, including Porter, former Adjutant General David Poythress and former Gov. Roy Barnes.

Blacks, who are likely to be energized by the prospect of following Obama’s success with the election of a black governor, are 30 percent of the registered voters and half of the Democratic primary base. In 2006, Baker got more votes than any other Democrat running statewide and more, even, than two Republicans who’ll be vying for governor, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Karen Handel. Only Gov. Sonny Perdue, School Superintendent Kathy Cox and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, another Republican gubernatorial candidate, got more votes.

Baker’s a moderate who’s generally well liked. Assuming he’s able to resist the pressure that’s always on Democrats to veer left, he could emerge from the primary as a strong contender in November. The Democratic base is probably 41-43 percent. Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor got 38 percent against Perdue in 2006. Without Obama’s coattails, Jim Martin got 43 percent in a runoff last December against U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

Porter, Poythress and Barnes all have their strengths, too. Porter, as minority leader, has made the House Democratic caucus a more cohesive, focused group whose members are less likely to rush before TV cameras to blurt out rants. By the traditional gauge of candidate likability, the fishing standard, Porter will wear well. The “fishing standard” is “which of the people running would you actually like to take fishing?”

Barnes has the experience, the contacts and the ability to raise money, all important. Poythress has been adjutant general, secretary of state and commissioner of labor and was well-regarded in all.

Had Democrats been able to hold on to rural Georgia, they’d now be in control statewide. The 28-county metro area, which represented 57 percent of the vote last November, is trending Democratic. Obama won the region, 51-48, largely because he won Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton by almost 400,000 votes. Outside metro Atlanta, John McCain prevailed with 58 percent.

Any successful Democrat needs to be center-right in rural Georgia and capable of turning out a huge black vote in metro Atlanta. Liberal activists, including those in the General Assembly and in the pure, hard-core Democratic areas like DeKalb and Clayton, are trouble for their candidates. If they cut them some slack through the primary, their November chances improve considerably. Known liberals lose Georgia. Get them firmly on record as supporting the Obama agenda, for example, and they’re toast.

Republican gubernatorial candidates also need to be center-right in rural Georgia. It prefers Chamber of Commerce types who’ll not lunge sharply left or right. Sonny Perdue. Joe Frank Harris. George Busbee. Solid, dependable, predictable. No sudden moves. Gradualism. They carried Georgia for McCain, just as they put Perdue in the governor’s mansion in 2002.

While the bulk of the vote is in metro Atlanta and it is trending Democratic, it’s still pretty evenly split. It’s the rest of Georgia that picks winners.

103 comments Add your comment

Jen

April 10th, 2009
8:15 pm

I’d vote for any candidate willing to be pro-Atlanta (and therefore pro-Georgia as far as financial health goes), including transportation, energy, water, and education…and that means funding public education.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
8:17 pm

100% of the Republitard base in Georgia are poorly educated white crackers like Wooten. Mouthing off with a bang, and as always, like the perenial looser they were born to be, Palin, Jindal, and Perry meekly accepted stimulus funds after playing to their ditzy delusions that refusing them would help them when they get crushed in the Republitard primary.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
8:40 pm

Republitards meet ole Flip ‘n Flop:

Jindal – who became the party’s most prominent voice against the stimulus in his rebuttal to Obama’s State of the Union address last month – appears to be rejecting just one other pot of federal cash on top of the $98 million in unemployment insurance: $9.5 million in health spending.

The local press noted, meanwhile, that he plans to request federal funds for a New Orleans-to-Baton Rouge passenger rail service from the same pot of railroad money he denounced as a vehicle for “wasteful spending.”

A Jindal spokeswoman didn’t respond to a request for details about his stance, but he wrote in his certification letter that he would spend the money “in a way that does not add an undue burden to the current financial situation in our state.”

Palin’s reversal was even more abrupt. She opened the battle March 19 by saying her state would “not request” some 31 percent of federal funds. Facing an uproar from legislators, her lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, assured the media the next day that Palin wasn’t “rejecting” the money, just seeking a public debate on spending. And Palin herself then weighed in, saying the money was still “on the table.”

Palin the Retard folds like an accordion as does Jindal. Principals her butt.

catlady

April 10th, 2009
9:00 pm

I think more of Georgia will go Democratic next time, as the full extent of the Republican devastation becomes apparent. Rural Geogia loves to hear about the guns and fetuses, but once they start having more severe economic pain, they are likely to look for who caused it. Yes, there are enough truly uneducated, stupid, or racists in rural Georgia to believe the schtick about it being Obama’s fault, but I think their eyes will open when things start to get better.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
9:00 pm

Pro-Atlanta sure wouldn’t be ole fat butt Purdue. His response to transportation and Marta was that of a dead man.

REPUBLICANS EVIL TIMEISUP

April 10th, 2009
9:13 pm

PLEASE YOU STUPID HICKS DO IT ONE MORE TIME VOTE GOP SO YALL CAN STAY BROKE

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
9:15 pm

What the AtBizChronicle article on the Emory Winship conference isn’t telling you is that Emory and other Georgia med and biomed research arms have already lost grants thanks to the Republitard laughingstock stem cell law in hick Georgia.

@@

April 10th, 2009
9:16 pm

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards:

Please allow this poorly educated white cracker assist you with your spelling.

perenial spelled correctly is perennial

looser spelled correctly is loser

Principals spelled correctly is Principles

Glad to help.

@@

April 10th, 2009
9:18 pm

…and there is some missing punctuation in your 9:15.

Again…

@@

April 10th, 2009
9:24 pm

Put a “to” in there too, tutu.

“to assist”

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
9:47 pm

Ruff and Tuff Republitards who don’t give a rat’s butt about their states reverse course abruptly:

Republitard Presidential Hopefuls Make Fools of Selves as Usual

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:00 pm

Ignorant people who correct typos and have no ideas and little education aren’t helpful to anyoingne. You aren’t teaching this writer anything not already known. And if and whecen I feel the need, I can get a spell checker. These typos are by a sensitive noteook keyboard whose touch can’t be adjusted unfortunately.

Most school children can spell perrenial, loser, and know the hononyms principle and principal. But not in Georgia–never in Georgia.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:02 pm

They can spell perrenial, as well. Any moron can use a spell checker. The point is to know when taking that time is necessary.

booger

April 10th, 2009
10:07 pm

After reviewing @@’s corrections, I think he really thinks rough and tough are spelled Ruff and Tuff.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:14 pm

I really do. But what’s more important, I can analyze what’s going on and you can’t. My party winstin, and your party perennially and continually whines and moans while losing. The country as left the wingnut base behind. How ’bout Pathetic Palin, Jindal the Joke, and Perry the Putz reversing themselves on orders of their legislatures as to accepting stim money atwhen a short few days ago they swore they wouldn’t? That’s quintissentially a ruff tuff stickin’ to their priniples ain’t it?

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:16 pm

The only punctuation missing @@ is in your frontal lobe. You’re the last person in position to be a human spell checker or a punctuation maven. I’d work on getting that first book read if I were you instead of pasting from websites.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:17 pm

The only punctuation missing is in @@’s frontal lobe.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:23 pm

The Republitards are the party of losers and are bankrupt of ideas after bankrupting the country financially with their deregulation and ignoring of wild cand crazy banks. They will be known as the party of financial depression and the party of death. Very few of their candidates for Congress will be elected, and none of their candidates for the Presidency has a prayer.

And their chaotic organization is reflected on blogs where they are reduced to becoming spell checkers, and self-proclaimed punctuation mavens, stupidly claiming they can spell and the typist cannot when they know that’s not the case.

What is apalling is their pure lack of vocabulary and childish writing tone and style. Their Palinesque grasp of current events is evidence of a lot of children left behind in the educational system, who have grown into large bodies.

d

April 10th, 2009
10:27 pm

The one thing that has to happen is we have to have a governor that will take care of the needs of ALL of Georgia, not just Atlanta and not just outside of Atlanta. The new governor (and the General Assembly has to realize that we cannot cut off our nose to spite our face). I don’t care if the next governor is Democrat or Republican as long as that person will truly work together to make Georgia better for all Georgians.

booger

April 10th, 2009
10:29 pm

How on earth would you know to which party I belong, if any. I think you’ve become a little tightly wound. Time for a “Bud” break. Or maybe you’d prefer a wine spritzer.

E

April 10th, 2009
10:33 pm

So back to the article…..

just sayin'

April 10th, 2009
10:43 pm

yeah georgia, throw your tax dollars into the burning trash heap that calls itself atlanta.

and marta.

if the city of atlanta and marta would show some kind of responsibility and resourcefullness, maybe folks would support them more?

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:47 pm

The odds are good on any of these blogs that wingnuts are 100:1. And I haven’t seen a non-partison discussion on the merits yet on them.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 10th, 2009
10:53 pm

Marta actually showed a fair amount of fiscal responibility. If you want to see ugly, enanalyze the top 5 banks in Atlanta because while Marta did lose its n some CDS or credit default investments, they were exponentially lower than what Sun Trust and the now packmaned BB&T evolved into Chase, Wachovia, and Bank of America lost. Same for WaMu. They are white controlled Buckhead residents at the top who make Marta look financially stable. Their irresponsible loans and investments lost far more money than MARTA.

And MARTA is the only major transportation system in the country not funded a penny by the state which is also reprehensible.

What needs to happen is Metro Atlanta taxes don’t go to fund 3/4 or more of the infrastructure in the hick towns of North and South, East and West Georgia. Let rural Georgia stand on its ignorant own feet.

just sayin'

April 10th, 2009
11:03 pm

party tard, when marta can prove to the greater metro atlanta area that they could be a viable option, then they will get the support.

Tank

April 11th, 2009
1:24 am

The Party of No; Panic and Pepublitards is actually Chad Harris

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 11th, 2009
1:35 am

MARTA will survive for a number of reasons. What isn’t surviving is the Republican party. MARTA lost its tax base for some of the same reason that Sun Trust, the #1 bank as to market deposit share in Atlanta begged the taxpayers for a bailout and got a $4.3 billion dollar loans . One difference however, is that MARTA didn’t make prodigious bad loans that aren’t going to be repaid.

Suntrust took infinitely more money from the taxpayers than MARTA has asked for. ARC is giving MARTA a $25 billion shot in the arm. I and a few of my friends in the US gave Sun Trust $4.3 billion and I don ‘t ever expect to see it repaid.

Further, thousands of bankers at Goldman Sachs alone just got millons of dollars in loans–one $25 million because he pissed it away on his show horses. The embarassing loan also took him out of the running for Goldman Sachs CEO.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 11th, 2009
1:41 am

That should read of cout ourse that ARC is giving MARTA $25 MILLION dollars in stimulus funds to keep it afloat if approved. And while some of the hicks here are blithly demanding that MARTA proove this and that without an understanding of MARTA or the banks in this city, I can tell you that many people who run small and large busineses here, as well as state and federal agencies and hospitals have been sweating bullets over MARTA’s threat to axe one workday with no service. It’s not a joke to a lot of people no matter how many hot cars or gas guzzling trucks they personally drive.

.SunTrust begged and screwed the taxpayers for a $4.3 BI.LLION dollary loan

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 11th, 2009
1:42 am

Tank, as usual, filed bankruptsy as to ideas and the ability to express them long ago.

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards

April 11th, 2009
2:21 am

Or was it that Tank filed bankruptCy on ideas long ago?

Redneck Convert

April 11th, 2009
7:38 am

Well, they’re crazy if they think people like me will vote for a Democrat–unless it’s old Zell and he ain’t running. When we go into the voting booth we got just a few things on our mind–guns and Those People and the gays. The godly Republican canadate that promises to let us keep our guns and stop this taxing to help Those People and keep the gays from marrying will get our vote. This is a Christian state and no Democrat is going to Heaven with the way they think.

We had to leave the Democrat party when it got all librul and passed these equal rights laws that are against good White People and started sucking up to the gays and wanting to tax us. They won’t never be getting us back. Now we’re Republican thru and thru. Except for a few of us Libraritarians that vote Republican anyway.

I say let Atlanta rot. Don’t do nothing to help that evil place. It’s nothing but a cesspool of librul Democrats and Those People that want to take our money and guns away from us and make our marriages worthless by going against the Bible and letting the gays marry.

That’s my opinion and it’s very true. Have a good weekend everybody.

Chris Broe

April 11th, 2009
7:51 am

Inconceivable? I don’t think that word means what Wooten thinks it means.

Ga Values

April 11th, 2009
8:07 am

I just hope Ms Handel is less bad than the 2 men. I hate to think I’s vote Democratic but the 2 male Republican fools are actually worse than Saxby. Where are the camable Republicans, they certainally are not in the legislature.

Jim Jr.

April 11th, 2009
8:52 am

**”Sarah Palin – shes one of us”**
Tell it like it is Levi…….

CommunistAJC

April 11th, 2009
9:02 am

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards, if you hate that Georgia is a red state please move up here to Illinois where democrats and corruption reign supreme. At least Georgia governors and senators aren’t being hauled off to jail and under investigation by the FBI like Illinois politicians are.

CommunistAJC

April 11th, 2009
9:09 am

The Party of No; Panic and Republitards aka Jeffery Dahmer, Marta will be LONG gone before the GOP will. Marta is a useless pill of crap on wheels. Atlanta is an unplanned stretched out city that was never meant for public transportation.

CommunistAJC

April 11th, 2009
9:10 am

oops, I meant to write PILE of crap. Not pill of crap. My bad.

CommunistAJC

April 11th, 2009
9:11 am

Real Jews understand the danger that is Bacrock Hussein Osama.

Column One: Surviving in a post-American world

Like it or not, the United States of America is no longer the world’s policeman. This was the message of Barack Obama’s presidential journey to Britain, France, the Czech Republic, Turkey and Iraq this past week.

Somewhere between apologizing for American history – both distant and recent; genuflecting before the unelected, bigoted king of Saudi Arabia; announcing that he will slash the US’s nuclear arsenal, scrap much of America’s missile defense programs and emasculate the US Navy; leaving Japan to face North Korea and China alone; telling the Czechs, Poles and their fellow former Soviet colonies, “Don’t worry, be happy,” as he leaves them to Moscow’s tender mercies; humiliating Iraq’s leaders while kowtowing to Iran; preparing for an open confrontation with Israel; and thanking Islam for its great contribution to American history, President Obama made clear to the world’s aggressors that America will not be confronting them for the foreseeable future.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1238562949505&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

get out much?

April 11th, 2009
9:56 am

Another case of the tail wagging the dog.

Poultry

April 11th, 2009
10:01 am

Let’s face it, the next Governor is the politician who hits the heaviest, Cagle. The SOB. Mr. Jim Wooten is right to say in his own way that coming into an election there is statehouse power, and then there is popular power. Cagle is a disgusting man who puts off any voter not attracted to a certain kind of Huey Long flexion, yet a good number of voters hereabouts do get exercised over oily displays of political muscle. The politically lazy like to think that easy solutions lie with a Casey Cagle. They don’t.

Jim Wooten is right, however. Don’t forget that In the Republican primary Georgians went solidly for Mike Huckabee. That would be rural Georgia.

But hey, I dunno

Chris Broe

April 11th, 2009
10:37 am

The “fishing standard” is “which of the people running would you actually like to take fishing?”

Grading Wooten: The Old Man and the C+

So Wooten approves of a scaled-back bailout? Sorry, but a river runs through the holes in this piece, Mr Wooten, and a more appropriate title would have been, “the one who smelt it, dealt it”.

The topic today is about casting the senate with fishing buddies. Anyone else notice that only one schooled bobber is baiting this blog with fully half the total comments?

Jackie

April 11th, 2009
10:45 am

Rural voters are beginning to understand the “what they don’t know won’t hurt them.”
The Repubs have used overt racism to appeal to base instincts of many of those voters to frighten them into believing the Dems are going to take away “God and Guns.”

It appears many are beginning to understand the real power in any society is the control of ones financial wherewithal. If one has enough money to control a current situation, one is in control.

Politicians come and go. Many are beginning to realize that promises made are not always promises kept.

Goergia will be the next of the the old American Confederacy to vote the Repubs out of office.

RetLTC

April 11th, 2009
11:03 am

Latinos, who have registered to vote in record numbers in Georgia are dying to get their shots in against the Republican party as well. If not this election, somewhere down the line the Republican party will reap what they have sown from that group. Guys like Chip Rogers who covet that office will never get there because of that demographic.

Dusty

April 11th, 2009
12:17 pm

Jackie,

There is NO old American Confederacy now. You are about 150 years behind. Try to catch up. You can’t blame everything on something that happened that long ago.

If you can’t get over it, that is your problem. Everybody has problems of one kind of another. They work it out and move on. Excuses make you look like some kind of wimp and that is not the way successful people do things.

Billy Bob - the anti-LaRaza

April 11th, 2009
12:20 pm

RetLTC

As long as there are racist Latina groups like La Raza there will be Anglo groups to oppose them. Get it?

Poultry

April 11th, 2009
12:54 pm

To say nothing of your notorious Mullet, Chris Broe.

The answer is, sometimes people vote for the one they like, for a Jimmy Carter, and sometimes they vote for the one they think will lead, even though the candidate may have obviously fascistic impulses.

So take da fat bait, Kingfish.

CommunistAJC

April 11th, 2009
1:32 pm

Jackie, the current DEMOCRAP party has an ACTIVE member who was in the KKK. The democrats have kept black people poor for decades. The GOP wants black people to make money on their own. I don’t know ANY republicans who are or have been a part of ANY racist movement. Your own ignorance is astounding. Instead of wanting to talk about race issues you go and use a tired old democrat tactic of painting another party as racist when you have ZERO evidence to support your lame rhetoric.

Now, feel free to call me a racist, nazi or simpleton. It’s all you have, Jackie Brown!

CommunistAJC

April 11th, 2009
1:33 pm

Jackie, why are black people, like you, always blaming the past for their current situation?

Let’s have a look: black man gets black woman pregnant. black man blames white people.

black man shoots another black man. black man blames white people.

Get over yourself Jackie and grow up!

CommunistAJC

April 11th, 2009
1:35 pm

THIS IS WHY THE SOUTH HATES THE DEMOCRAT PARTY!

The Tax Capital of the World
States are raising taxes despite the ’stimulus’; New York is No. 1.

Like the old competition to have the world’s tallest building, New York can’t resist having the nation’s highest taxes. So after California raised its top income tax rate to 10.55% last month, Albany’s politicians leapt into action to reclaim high-tax honors. Maybe C-Span can make this tax competition a new reality TV series; Carla Bruni, the first lady of France, could host.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123940286075109617.html

Poultry

April 11th, 2009
1:43 pm

I’m betting on California. They’re in this one to win.