The reason most pre-season polls end up being off is because they simply judge teams based on star power alone.

People who think Florida would be or will be a bad team without Tebow are just as silly as people who think Georgia won’t be any good this year without Stafford and Moreno.

Look at Bama’s JPW last year he looked all world at times, why? Because he had one of the most dominant o-lines in the country.

Imagine if Jay Cutler had played for UF, UGA, Tenn, Bama of Aub instead of Vandy where he had little supporting cast?

Stars are nice but championships start in the trenches.

The recipie for championship teams is this:

1. Dominant Defensive line that can disrupt the offensive backfield. If the line is strong and can get pressure the LBs and Secondary will flourish

2. Dominant o-line that can move the pile, protect the qb and give him time to go through his progressions

3. A solid QB that can protect the ball and play mistake free ball. Doesn’t have to be a superstar, although it’s a definite plus if he is, it’s not a requirement.

4. A balanced offensive attack that can move the chains and keep defenses guessing. Also need to be able to do both as some teams will be better at against the run and others against the pass, and a balanced attack gives a team the ability to exploit the defense’s weakness.

5. Team chemistry, all units playing as one and not as individuals.

Look at the last 10 national champions and judge them based off that criteria and you’ll find they all have those things, and the teams that fell short, fell short somewhere on that list.

Also look at who QB’d the National Champions from 08-98 and then think about each team as a whole: Only 4 QBs on this list could truly be considered stars – Tebow, Young, Leinart, & Weinke

2008 – UF – Tebow
2007 – LSU – Matt Flynn
2006 – UF – Chris Leak
2005 – Tex – Vince Young
2004 – USC – Matt Leinart
2003 – LSU – Matt Mauck
2002 – OSU – Craig Krenzel
2001 – Miami – Ken Dorsey
2000 – Okl – Josh Heupel
1999 – FSU – Chris Weinke
1998 – Tenn – Tee Martin

Your story of the WR is along the lines of my point exactly. My position is that the recruiting services can certainly put the kids’ names out there. And yes, I would say that you probably have 90% of the top 150 high school players on the list. But until I learn differently, I’m still of the opinion that these ratings are based primarily on stats from camps. There are players out there who don’t spend their summers chasing football camps, and of those who do, I’d rather study film and check out the kid in person.

Of course, no matter WHAT you do, it’s still a partial crapshoot to predict future success at any level. Even the NFL, with all of the resources that they put into scouting, miss on players all too frequently.

Interesting personal story: My last year of Pop Warner ball, we had an awesome team. Our starting QB was a man among boys, calling audibles and checking off plays before most college QBs were allowed to do so. He never even made his high school’s varsity team. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th string QBs went on to start 8 years on their respective varsity teams in HS, and 2 of them earned scholarships.

Okay, I’m rambling now…..better go…lol

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again here. I feel pretty confident that Richt and Meyer, etc. don’t sit in front of a computer screen all day looking at these ratings. It doesn’t mean that the Dogs and Gators don’t have great recruiting classes, but I think the coaches are judging success on based on a little different set of criteria.

So, enjoy the ratings, I’m sure they’re reasonably accurate snapshots of a player’s college potential. Just don’t get too excited one way or the other.

TAMPAGATOR: Sorry to hear you’re under the weather, I tend to enjoy your posts. Hope you get well soon…but….as long as you have some time on your hands…have you thought about looking at the ratings and whether they tend to ‘downgrade’ kids after they have committed in order to keep the excitement going with ‘top notch’ uncommitted players? I’ve heard that charge before, just never had the time to check it out….could be interesting.

GTDog say…Ruff Ruff and Bzzz Bzz