Comments on: Recruiting rankings no predictor of success in ACC, SEC

By: Keith

Keith — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 17:32:53 +0000

A big part of the stars thing is exposure. What camps you go to, who is showing interest, etc. It is also largely opinion base just like the pre season team rankings, and season rankings as well. I have watched a kid go from NR to two star just because a school came in to the mix. Then change to a 3 star when he signed his LOI. I think it has a lot to do with the schools that are recruiting a kid. They want their numbers to look good so a kid will change rankings when a GA or FL comes in to the fold. Like Tampa said, those numbers don’t only change while the kid progresses through a program, but they can change from the time he hits Rivals to the time he inks the LOI.

By: Big Dawg

Big Dawg — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 22:29:06 +0000

As usual Chip a great article to get people thinking. The thing that corrupts this process is the subjective picking of pre-season All ACC and SEC teams. Being a football fan I know that the post season All conference teams will be a lot different than the pre-season teams as injuries and other factors will eliminate some players. So by the end of the year you will have a much clearer picture of how valuable or invaluable these recruiting rankings really are.

By: Few Georgia ’stars’ in newly revamped ESPN150 rankings | AJC College Sports Recruiting

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:03:49 +0000

[...] yesterday the much-maligned system of rating recruits with star rankings. Quite unscientifically, I listed the preseason All-ACC teams and All-SEC teams and pulled their corresponding star rankings …. The predictable outcome was that the teams weren’t made up of only 4- and 5-star players. In [...]

By: AtlantaTruth

AtlantaTruth — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 14:22:05 +0000

Tech has always been and will continue to be a lower tier division one school when it comes to thier football program. Tech fans blame thier past failures on the coaches they’ve hired and although thats part of the problem the main part is how the school is perceived by others like the media and high school athletes. Tech fans have never supported the football program. The only time they sell out their home games are when teams with winning programs come to Grant field. The very fact that they have to continuously advertize to sell tickets to games so they can fill up thier tiny stadium is proof that the Tech football program is considered as lower tier. Just look at how their fans respond and act on the blogs in the AJC…..like little kids (which most probably are)If you don’t think thier actions transends to people on the outside looking in at their program, why can’t they ever win the recruiting battle in the state of Georgia. Not only does UGA out recruit Tech each year in the state but so does, Auburn, Tenn, Clemson, S.Carolina and recently Alabama. Maybe CPJ will eventually turn that around…but I don’t think so. Tech will continue to sign the two and three star athletes that really want to go to other schools but know they won’t receive offers.Unless the Tech fan base starts putting thier money where their mouths are it won’t be long before CPJ leaves for a school that truely knows how to stand behind their team instead of hiding on this blog and taking cheap shots at successful programs.
PS.Tokyo jacket…ND hasn’t had a top five recruiting class in over ten years.

By: Chip Towers

Chip Towers — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 10:29:42 +0000

Folks, I appreciate all the critical analysis of the data I compiled here, but this wasn’t scientific and it wasn’t supposed to be. I just pulled out the all-conference lists and looked up the star value each player received just to see what came out. . . . I think we all know that recruiting rankings are flawed and highly subjective. But it definitely gives us all something to talk about!

By: Tokyo jacket

Tokyo jacket — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 04:03:21 +0000

Jarvis, I agree with you actually. I think bench time is very important. Separate but related stat: up until Ben Rothlisberger’s rookie year, there were only two rookie QBs with a winning record, ever: Marino and Kerry Collins. Bench time is important.

Going pro early is historically not good for career success. As Cassell and TD prove, you can learn a lot on the bench.

By: hey WARD

hey WARD — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 04:01:11 +0000

45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42

hey ward are you pi$$ed of yet? if not here is another for good measure….

FORTY FIVE TO forty two

ill meet you but youll have to tell me which one of these fug ugglies you are…….

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=140&f=2938&t=4534694

i think your the guy with the clown wig and the low hangers.

By: jarvis

jarvis — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 03:14:50 +0000

Tokyo – Terrell Davis played a very limited amount in college and was the most dominate RB in the game for a couple of years. I’m trying to think of some others, but coming up blank.

Maurice Clarett only played one year and…..wait….that’s not helping my argument at all.

By: Tokyo jacket

Tokyo jacket — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 03:06:15 +0000

jconservative…I totally disagree. What do Texas, UF, LSU and USC all have in common? They’ve all had a #1 recruting class and won a national championship within 3 years of that class in the past 10 years. But, I’m inclined to think it’s correlation more than causality.

What do UGA and ND have in common? They have consistently brought in top 5 classes with no NC over the past 5 years. I say they don’t have the coaching and development that the other teams I listed provide. CPJ’s 3- and 4-stars beat CMR’s 4- and 5-star players, but got hammered by LSU’s 4- and 5-stars.

Talent + Coaching + Luck = National Championship. If you’re missing one of the components, you will fall short.

By: jarvis

jarvis — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 03:05:51 +0000

How is 5 nearly as many as 8? It’s closer to being half than it is equal.

By: Tokyo jacket

Tokyo jacket — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 02:59:13 +0000

Atlanta Gator, great post. I almost thought about talking statistics for a moment instead of football. I have seen similar analysis with respect to draft potential and number of stars rated. The first reaction is to say “the same number of 2, 3, 4, and 5 star players get drafted every year, and actually a few more 2 and 3 stars.” But, the trick is that there is a much higher PERCENTAGE of the higher recruited players going to the pros because there are so much fewer 5-stars than 2-stars.

I agree with you that the real analysis comes in when you look at the other variables such as time on the bench and time on the field. If that number gets too high in either direction, it’s no good. 4 year starters often don’t make great NFL players because they relied on talent and never got to watch someone better than them. Cassell is the only guy I know of that could play in the NFL without ever starting a game. I think major programs don’t ever have to start first year guys and also play major talent on opposition. So, they create the key to playing in the NFL: learning off the field and learning on the field.

By: ReptilesRule

ReptilesRule — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 02:22:15 +0000

Tampa Gator…your problem is that you are trying to use reason and logic while dealing with idiots. Don’t waste your time my friend. God himself could descend from the heavens, proclaim Urbans loyalty to Florida, put it on a stone tablet and mount it right next to Tebows “Promise” on the stadium wall and still these morons would insist he’s going to Notre Dame. I think you just must come to the simple “Truth” that some people just have a “Smurf” for brains.

By: Atlanta Gator

Atlanta Gator — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 23:50:29 +0000

Chip Towers—-I read this column with interest, and it represents the good quality analysis that we’ve come to expect from you. That being said, your statistical methodology is a little suspect (too small a sample of data points) and your dependent variable (whether a player makes the preseason All-SEC list) is amazingly subjective. You’re also mixing apples, oranges and pears when you compare football players from position to position. Hard enough to compare the outcome for a wide receiver and tailback, let alone a quarterback and a safety.

Have you ever done regression analysis? It’s really neat stuff to play with.

Basically, you pick a mathematically sound dependent variable (i.e. yardage gained, or percentage of passes completed), then select independent variables that may explain the differences in the dependent variables. For example, one of several independent variables could be the kid’s Rivals star-ranking (potential proxy), the number of years he’s been on the team (practice experience proxy), the number of games he’s started (game experience proxy), the team’s win-loss record (proxy for the quality of his teammates). Best to use a position-specific dependent variable, like passing yards, tackles, interceptions, touchdowns, rushing yards, etc., but you could use the all-SEC selection, but with the small available sample a total of 22 first-team selections, your results are going to have a much bigger standard of deviation, thereby reducing there predictive value. At a minimum, you should have a sample with 32 or more data points (i.e. players).

After “regressing” the dependent variable on the independent variables, the software program will tell you how much of the variation in the outcome (e.g. passing yards) is explained by each of the dependent variables (e.g., Rivals ranking, years on team, games started, win-loss record, etc.).

Now, that’s neat stuff, and I’m not even a Georgia Tech grad. LOL

By: Tokyo jacket

Tokyo jacket — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 23:14:29 +0000

Sorry to get technical, but there’s a difference between correlation and causality. There is very clearly correlation between recruiting rankings and championships. But, I see no way to prove that those rankings are causing championships.

By: Bo Williams

Bo Williams — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:55:59 +0000

Oh Kendawg, how many first round draft picks came from the 2d-tier ACC?

By: Paddy

Paddy — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:21:36 +0000

Ward… I agree with you about St Simon. But sad to say this is not a UGA blog it is an AJC entity and as such all are welcome. No matter how stupid (add name St Simon) all are welcome but all are not appreciated.

By: shane#1

shane#1 — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:04:54 +0000

I have checked the Rivals recruiting rankings for top five finishes from 2002 to 2009. The overall recruiting winner was USC, no suprise there, with six top five classes. Runners up were UF, LSU, and Texas, with four top five classes each. All of the above named programs had at least one number one class. OSU, UT, and Miami{FL} had three top five classes. What does this prove? OU has had two top five classes, and is the ONLY team with less than three top five classes to win a BCSNCG! UGA and Bama have had two top five classes each, but Bama’s classes in 2008 and 2009 were number one classes. So watch out for Bama! Oh, the Wasted Talent Award goes to FSU with four top five classes and little to show for it, when was the last time FSU won the ACC? Individual rankings may not matter, but team rankings sure do.

By: jconservative

jconservative — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:23:03 +0000

Several years ago someone out west ranked the Big 10. They put the stars by every grant-in-aid player on every Big 10 team. At the end of the season the ranking were compared with the win/loss records. Results: rankings were meaningless. The number of stars by a high school player had nothing to do with how the teams performed in the season. As a bonus, MVP for two teams were walkons.

But it does make for good conversation.

By: TampaGator

TampaGator — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 18:34:01 +0000

theTruth…If not, your post surely has a very strong inference to such. Plus, you still hvae not provided specifics concerning Charlie’s lack of honor related to his student athletes on the Notre Dame campus. All coaches, including Meyer and Richt, make changes to their rosters to change the culture and enviroment to the culture and environment they want to have. Some student athletes just don’t buy into what the new coach wants…which is usually wanting not to lose anymore. Plus, most coaches (college and pro) make assistant coaching changes when the team is not performing well. And I believe Meyer is doing a great job in leading the large majority of his young student athletes in a very positive manner (stated clearly in the ESPN article is you read it), and is dealing, and has dealt, with those “offending” student athletes on the U of F football team in a highly positive and fair manner, giving some of them a fair chance to change for the better and dealing with others by asking them to leave the team as appropriate (Davis, Brown, Hornsby). And Patrino does not make the money that Meyer makes. Not even close. Weiss does. In fact, he makes more than Meyer even with the new contract given to Meyer yesterday. And, by the way, Meyer is not going to Notre Dame next year…no matter what happens to good ole Charlie and his team this year up in South Bend. It also gets real cold up there in South Bend. Not so much in Gainesville.

By: theTruth

theTruth — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 18:14:27 +0000

TG, I wasn’t comparing Meyer to Petrino as far as ethics/morals, just that others ‘make that kind of money’ that aren’t leading young men in a positive manner as they should be.

Charlie has threw a few of his young men under the bus including year 2 of his regime when they started playing poorly including his assistant coaches at the time.

By: TampaGator

TampaGator — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:42:46 +0000

the Truth…what exactly has old Charlie done to those young men up at Notre Dame? I haven’t read any of those stories. The only stories I have read about him is related to his lack of head football coaching skills, not the poor or ill treatment of his players. Please share and enlighten me. Now, I understand your comments about the Arkansas coach, although he has seemingly righted his ship out there compared to his dealings with Louisville, Auburn, and the Falcons. People can learn valuable lessons from their mistakes, and maybe Patrino has learned his. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, at least for now, although how shallow that benefit of doubt might be based on his past dealings with people and organizations. But to put Meyer in the same category as Patrino’s past dealings is not worth any comment.

By: TampaGator

TampaGator — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:13:59 +0000

TRUE2THEJACKETS….well, you might want to add Georgia Tech to that hit list because they are suddenly recruiting well, too. Have you ever thought that maybe Richt, Meyer, and now Johnson are recruiting so well because they (and their assistant coaches) out-work and out-think the competition. Knowing what Richt, Meyer, and Johnson stand for publicly…I don’t believe for a second that any of them are doing anything that intentionally goes against NCAA recruiting bylaws. I am sure Richt and Meyer…and now Johnson…are just sitting in their offices figuring out a way to get around the recruiting bylaws so they can some day lose their jobs…which pay them millions of dollars. Yeah, right!

By: Whopper Dawg

Whopper Dawg — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:11:16 +0000

The ratings are fair from an absolute. As a UGA fan, I would be highly concerned if our recruits were two stars or not ranked – something would be very wrong. Everyone has intangibles that ultimately are huge factors in the success of everyone in every walk of life. However, the schools are get the top grades in recruiting are usually the schools that win the games on the field, that is a direct correlation. If your class is chock full of a mix of 5s, 4s and 3s, you have done a pretty good job.

By: TampaGator

TampaGator — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:07:03 +0000

Stephen…I believe you missed the main point of Chip’s article…as some others did, I believe. What I read into the article is that you can’t judge a high school player, or the future star ability of a high school player, by his current star rating. Or you can’t judge a current recruiting class my the star ranking of that class….and I also see no reason for you to personally attack a good AJC sports writer who, I think, writers some excellent and relevant stores for us to think about and blog about.

By: TRUE2THEJACKETS

TRUE2THEJACKETS — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:58:09 +0000

I WILL BET YOU ANYTHING THAT LSU, UGA & FLA WILL BE INVESTIGATED BY THE NCAA FOR RECRUITING VIOLATIONS WITH IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS. LOOK UGA HAS NEVER RECRUITED THAT GOOD AND NOW THE PAST 6 YEARS THEY ARE GETTING 4 AND 5 STAR PLAYERS….WELL LOOK DEEP INTO IT, THEY WILL BE BUSTED

By: TRUE2THEJACKETS

TRUE2THEJACKETS — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:56:02 +0000

LOOK I HAVE A MILLION BUCKS IN MY POCKET THAT SAYS SOMEWHERE DOWN THE LINE UGA, LSU AND FLA WILL HAVE SANCTIONS AGAINST THE FOR VIOLATIONS FOUND OUT FOR THE PAST 8 YEARS. WANNA BET?

By: TRUE2THEJACKETS

TRUE2THEJACKETS — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:54:44 +0000

LOOK THE ACC FOOTBALL IS ALOT MOR COMPETATIVE THEN THE SEC BASKETBALL SO STOP TALKING, THE ACC IS A TOP 3 CONF IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

By: TRUE2THEJACKETS

TRUE2THEJACKETS — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:53:09 +0000

HEY 78 DAWG, WHERE DO YOU SEE UGA IN THE TOP 5 AT THE END OF THE YEAR IN THE POLLS? JUST RECIENTLY HAVE THE FLEABAGS BEEN GETTING RANKED…LETS SAY THE PAST 5 YEARS MAYBE. BETTER READ UP ON YOUR STUFF AGAON AND EVEN NOW THEY DONT FINISH IN THE TOP 5 AT THE END OF THE SEASON.

By: JDW

JDW — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:51:29 +0000

Not surprising that ACC players have fewer stars than SEC players…the SEC has better players. If you only look at the SEC data there is only one player with a 2 star rating so 21 of 22 are rated 3 or better. 50% are rated at 4 or better. To really make sense of the data you need to know how many players in the league there were in each level. What % of five star recruits made all SEC? My guess is there are a lot more 3 star recruits that 5 star.

By: TRUE2THEJACKETS

TRUE2THEJACKETS — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:49:48 +0000

IF YOUR A UGA FAN YOU GOTTA BE SICK WITH BEING CALLED LOSERS, YOUR TEAM DOES LESS WITH SOME OF THE BEST TALENT. I GUESS IT’S JUST IN THE AIR THERE IN REDNECKVILL ATHENS, MAYBE YOU GUYS SHOULD GROW PUMPKINS AND THROW THEM AROUND. WAY TO GO LOSERS….NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS…..UGA-1 GEORGIA TECH-5

By: theTruth

theTruth — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:49:28 +0000

TAMPAGATOR, You don’t pay that kind of money to a person who has no conscience and who is not positive leader of young men.

TG, there are many head football coaches that make ‘that kind of money’ that are not positive leaders of young men. Charlie Weis, Bobby Petrino, etc. Is is coincidence that UM is now making as much as Charlie Weis? Ole Charlie is making $4 mil at ND. By his actions and own words, I do not believe CW is a positive leader of young men.

Btw, how do you know Smurf isn’t as smart as your President of the University? The head man isn’t always the brightest apple on the tree. (Insert Lane Kiffin or Obama/Bush joke here) depending on your preference.

By: The Sham

The Sham — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:42:05 +0000

Chip: My intitial thoughts were similar to TampaGator’s (not proud to admit), but I do think the upsides and early maturity of these kids are more reflected in their recruiting rankings. I recall when Scout was analyzing Aaron Murray and Metzenburg to “guestimate” who would be a better prospect down the line and they used respective terms like “core muscles seemed to have developed already” or “core muscles were soft but the frame was there to be built upon”. Those aren’t exact quotes, but something similar. The end synopsis was that Murray was better prepared to make an impact sooner than Metz, but if I remember right, they were both 4 stars… My point is that these recruiting sites may or may not take into account what there future star value may be, so I’d like to see how many times a kid ends up on the all conference team during his eligible years (not just a snapshot) and that will tell a better story as to whether these sites get it right.

With that said, I do realize you are limited in time – but I like to critique none the less.

By: Scout

Scout — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:40:26 +0000

We get it right most of the time… Julio Jones, AJ Green, Tim Tibow etc. We get it wrong sometimes… Jasper Sanks, Reshad Jones. But look at the teams playing for the NC the last 10 years and look at where they were ranked in the recruiting wars. There is a correlation.

Rather have folks recruited by LSU than Ga. Tech… see Chic-fil-a bowl.

By: Ga Boy

Ga Boy — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:38:11 +0000

That was some pretty flawed logic Chip. There are only 17, 5 star athletes in the 2010 class according to Rivals. There are not that many 5 stars to go around. 70% of the time you can make statistics say anything you want and that is the truth 90% of the time.

By: 78 DAWG

78 DAWG — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:35:56 +0000

This is Bull! This just goes to show the anti DAWG leaning of this liberal rag! The DAWGS are in the top 5 in recruiting every year and it translates in to top 5 finishes on the field and in the class room. Use facts not BS!