Recruiting rankings no predictor of success in ACC, SEC
I love recruiting rankings. I find them particularly interesting because they are absolutely necessary in the world of quantification that we live in but they are also absolutely impossible to quantify.
Who’s really to say that a 6-foot-5, 300-pound offensive tackle in Dallas should be rated higher than a 6-foot-5, 300-pound offensive tackle in Fort Mill, S.C.? Yet the recruiting sites that college football fans love to frequent do it every day.
So on the occasion of college football preseason camps opening this week — and high schools, for that matter — I decided to break down the recently-released All-ACC and All-SEC preseason teams based on the players’ recruiting rankings coming out of high school. In the interest of time and simplicity, I went only by how many stars they earned and relied only on the rankings of Rivals.com rather than Scout.com or ESPN. You’ll find the charts listing the preseason selections followed by their star rankings at the bottom of this blog. Five stars is the highest ranking bestowed and reserved only for the top percentage of players at a respective position. Two stars apparently is the lowest ranking because I’ve never seen a one-star recruit (correct me here if I’m wrong, recruitniks).
The results were at once somewhat enlightening and somewhat predictable. For instance:
- There were nearly as many 2-stars players (five) that made the teams as 5-star players (eight).
- Players that signed with SEC schools on average were ranked higher coming out of high school than ACC players. The average All-ACC offensive player earned 3.33 stars versus 3.92 stars for the ALL-SEC offensive player. On defense, All-ACC players averaged 3.08 stars compared to 3.58 for All-SEC. That will only add fuel the long-standing, chicken-egg debate in recruiting: Are recruits that sign with elite teams and conferences better players or do they earn higher rankings because they commit/sign with those teams?
- A high star ranking would appear to predict success more often for an offensive skill player than any other position. Florida quarterback Tim Tebow, running back C.J. Spiller and wide receivers A.J. Green (Georgia) and Julio Jones (Alabama) all had 5-stars. Then again, Preseason All-ACC quarterback Russell Wilson of N.C. State was a 2-star recruit.
- Star rankings aren’t a good predictor for offensive linemen and, surprisingly to me, defensive backs. Neither conference had a 5-star offensive lineman on their squads (the ACC group averaged 3.0 stars). Also, there were two 2-star recruits (Kentucky’s Trevard Lindley and Viginia Tech’s Kam Chancellor) among the eight players selected to the all-conference secondaries. Tennessee’s Eric Berry was the only 5-star in the defensive backfield.
Anyway, there are a number of conclusions one can draw from the data, namely that recruiting rankings are at best a best guess. If nothing else it makes for interesting conversation. Have a look for yourself:
PRESEASON ALL-ACC TEAM
Offense
- QB Russell Wilson, MD, 2 stars
- RB Jonathan Dwyer, GT, 4
- RB C.J. Spiller, CL, 5
- WR Demaryius Thomas, GT, 3
- WR Jacoby Ford, CL, 4
- TE Greg Boone, VT, 3
- OT Jason Fox, MI, 4
- OT Anthony Castonzo, BC, 2
- OG Sergio Render, VT, 3
- OG Rodney Hudson, FS, 3
- C Matt Tennant, BC, 3
- PK Matt Bosher, MI, 4
Defense
- DE Jason Worilds, VT, 4 stars
- DE Willie Young NCS, 4
- DT Vince Oghobaase, Duke, 4
- DT Marvin Austin, NC, 5
- LB Dekoda Watson, FS, 3
- LB Quan Sturdivant, NC, 3
- LB Alex Wujcak, MD, 3
- CB Ras-I Dowling, VA, 4
- CB Kendric Burney, NC, 3
- S Morgan Burnett, GT, 4
- S Kam Chancellor, VT, 2
- S Travis Baltz, MD, 2
PRESEASON ALL-SEC TEAM
Offense
- QB Tim Tebow, FL, 5 stars
- RB Charles Scott, LS, 4
- RB Michael Smith, AR, 3
- WR Julio Jones, AL, 5
- WR A.J. Green, GA, 5
- TE D.J. Williams, AR, 4
- OL Ciron Black, LS, 3
- OL Mike Johnson, AL, 4
- OL John Jerry, UM, 3
- OL Mike Pouncey, FL, 4
- C Maurkice Pouncey, FL, 4
- PK Leigh Tiffin, AL, 3
Defense
- DL Terrence Cody, AL, 3 stars
- DL Greg Hardy, UM, 3
- DL Carlos Dunlap, FL, 5
- DL Antonio Coleman, AU, 3
- LB Brandon Spikes, FL, 5
- LB Rolando McClain, AL, 4
- LB Eric Norwood, SC, 3
- DB Eric Berry, UT, 5
- DB Trevard Lindley, UK, 2
- DB Joe Haden, FL, 4
- DB Javier Arenas, AL, 3
- P Chas Henry, FL 3
Rankings according to Rivals.com
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70 comments Add your comment
Saint Simons
August 4th, 2009
9:44 am
45 -42 !!!!!!!!!!! hahahahahahahahahahahaha
god and greyhound
August 4th, 2009
9:50 am
There are far fewer 5 or 4 stars than 3 or 2, but i bet a larger percentage of them end up on these lists
cltnc
August 4th, 2009
10:01 am
I find these types of looks at recruiting rankings very interesting. I would love to see some sort of look at how team recruiting rankings stacked up against actual end of the season rankings for the teams with those kids on them, or a look at what the star rankings were for draft picks.
Football Scoop » Blog Archive
August 4th, 2009
10:06 am
[...] Rankings according to Rivals.com: Read AJC article. Link… [...]
Bryan
August 4th, 2009
10:08 am
There might be 4 5star QB’s, RB’s, OL, etc. per class in the nation. 6 out of 24 or 25% of the SEC’s team are 5 star players. There are 100 times more 2, 3, 4, star players. Seems like the 5 star players are living up to expectations for the most part if you look at sample size.
Floyd
August 4th, 2009
10:13 am
Chip,
Great research, but I’d be far more interested in seeing how team recruiting rankings correlate to final rankings in the polls, say, four or five years later.
For instance, take a look at the top ten recruiting classes from 2003-2005 and figure out how those classes played out in the final polls in 2006-2008. I think that’s probably a better indicator of whether or not recruiting rankings are reasonably accurate or just something for us to bounce around amongst ourselves during the off season.
Just my gut feeling, but I bet teams with top ten recruiting classes finish in the top ten final rankings, more times than not. In my opinion, the recruiting services do a better job ranking classes as a whole than they do ranking individual players. But, if not, it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong.
Ward
August 4th, 2009
10:14 am
Saint Simons- I invite you to personally say that to my face at the next game. I am sick of seeing it on a Georgia post. Get over it! You guys win once every 9 years and you act like lil’ bitche$. You wonder why UGA fans give it to you so bad? It is because Tech idiots act like babies and think you are so special for the 1 time you actually do something worth a damn.
juvenal
August 4th, 2009
10:23 am
when a big star gets hit by another one, instead of the unrated kids like he played against so often in high school, then we see how many stars his heart has-as for all the meaness on these sites, if nothing else it is boring-the teams don’t play the games with their tongues
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
10:28 am
Ward…First, this is NOT a Georgia posting site. It is a recruiting site for anyone. Second, please ignore St. Simons. He loves it when you address him. Third, why don’t you post something about the topic of the article? Something like the following: I for one read the recruiting sites just to keep me connected to college football, the greatest sport to me (sorry, world, maybe your soccer “football” players get star ratings before turing pro, too. It is sort of like reading baseball cards for baseball junkies. The banter between team fans the “recruiting wars” cause is highly entertaining to us all…except for a few childlike creatures out there. But the thing to remember is: boys turn into men from the ages of 18 to 22…and a 5-star at 18 can easily be a 2 star or less at 22. And a 2 star at 18 can easily grow into a 5-star at 20, 21, 22. The star ratings are fixed in time…and time goes by.
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
10:31 am
Great point, Bryan. Also, 4-5 years ago, these recruiting sites were handing out more 5-star rankings than they are now. They are really limiting these high rankings to the “sure fire” studs. But even with all of the resources available to grade a recruit, there will be some to slip through the cracks…for good or bad. It’s not just HS recruits, though. There are pro bowlers drafted in the latter rounds of the draft and their are absolute busts drafted in the 1st round. It seems to me that a players inability to live up to a high ranking is too often attributed to his character/work ethic. These recruiting sites can only grade off of what they see on the field, whether it’s in person or on film.
beasy31
August 4th, 2009
10:34 am
coaches dont make their money getting 4 or 5 star recruits. its the 2 and 3 star guys that they have to coach up and develop that make a team and help them win. for ward it didnt really matter what bulldogs we played. we ran both yall over for than 800 yds. your getting a taste of what we had for five years with uga fans rubbing it in our faces.
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
10:37 am
I’d love to see a list of 5-star recuits in the SEC that have been at their respective school for at least 2 years. If they are not All-SEC (1st or 2nd team), then surely it’s because of injury/character/work ethic issues.
beasy31
August 4th, 2009
10:43 am
or played for uga and are in jail
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
10:45 am
There is definitely some truth to what you’re saying, beasy31. But let’s be honest, not many 2-stars are being signed by major programs. 3 stars? yes. 2 stars? no. 3 stars definitely have a chip on their shoulder, and may have not yet fully developed by HS graduation. The likelihood of a 2-star panning out and contributing to a Top 20 school is not good. I’ll give the recruiting services a little credit.
However, Clay Matthews, the LB out of USC (now with Green Bay) wasn’t even rated out of HS….I don’t think. I’m pretty sure his only offer was to Oregon State. He walked on at USC and blossomed into what he is now. It definitely happens, but not too often.
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
10:46 am
..or played for Tech and turned gay.
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
10:49 am
J Smurf….nice, intelligent post. NOT.
beasy31
August 4th, 2009
10:50 am
true and calay matthews is a rarity in college football..but we get degrees not jail time. also we dont get ran on for 400 rushing yards in one game. like i said it doesnt matter what bulldogs we played last year. we ran for over 800 yds in two games. best of luck this year and should be a good game when we meet.
beasy31
August 4th, 2009
10:51 am
clay *
ReptilesRule
August 4th, 2009
10:55 am
Recruiting is very important, but only a part of the equation. Much undervalued is player character and chemistry, for instance I have already seen the Gators pass on a very talented player, who even starred at their featured camp recently, because they felt he was too much of a “me” guy and would not fit in the locker room or with their “ultimate team” philosophy. We’ve all seen what a “T.O.” can do to a team. Also undervalued is filling the most critical needs of your team, not just for the next year but for the longer term. You can recruit five star running backs but if you don’t have the necessary horses up front, you’re spinning your wheels. You can recruit 5 star recievers up the ying yang but what about the trigger man?? And then of course you have coaching and development which involves alot of things including physical development (strength and conditioning) as well as teaching and motivational factors (HC and coaching staff).
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
10:57 am
I hope Coach Meyer has learned that it is not all about the 5 stars when recruiting (I believe he has if you look at some of the players he has commits from this year). For example, Meyer took a chance on some big time, 5-star recruits who did not turn out so well. There names are Torrey Davis (rated the best DL prospect in the nation but is no longer at Florida or anywhere else that I know of due to lack of academic and performance responsibility), John Brown (also rated one of the top DL prospects who performed poorly at Florida both athletically and academically and is now at Tennessee), and the renowned Jamar Hornsby (rated one of the top safeties in the country but seemed to never understand that greatness requires character and morality…something Houston Nutt may have just discovered as well).
Kendawg
August 4th, 2009
11:02 am
Lumping the ACC and the SEC in the same analysis of recruiting rankings makes no sense at all. The ACC is not a top-tier league. So what if they have a two-star QB on their all-league team? It’s a league of two-stars.
Americus Fan
August 4th, 2009
11:07 am
I agree with Bryan above: Because there are so many more 2 & 3 star recruits in both conferences, the analysis above seems to support that the recruiting services do a pretty good job. Or you can take it to the next level: 4 & 5 star recruits start off at a higher “press” level, and are more likely to be picked for pre-season all-conference teams. (Or as I read on a GT blog by a UGA fan, “How the heck can they pick Dwyer as preseason player of the year when he hasn’t even played a down yet this year?”)
And since I teach at a college, I can assure you that an 18-year old will change over the 4 or 5 years they are in college. Some will take football more seriously, or partying, or academics. They may overcome bad coaching in high school, or as someone else suggested, improve with a higher level of competition. (Or worsen since they are no longer the big stud on the team.)
One thing is certain: There is always next season. To me, this is the greatest time for football: When Fall practice starts, I’m reading about the new freshmen, and predicting what type of season my team is going to have. I think the recruiting services really make this more interesting because you know more about the incoming players.
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
11:12 am
beasy, you make no sense. Yea, you ran for 400 yds. Have you paid attention to any of Paul Johnson’s teams. All of your yards come on the ground. no doubt tech will lead the ACC in rushing yards, but they won’t win anything of value. If your argument is yards, then we outgained Tech in total yards. Sure we lost…I’m just saying.
TampaGator, stop making excuses for your weak recruiting class. We didn’t offer that same WR prospect. Don’t act like Urban Meyer has a conscience, because he doesn’t.
Big Ed
August 4th, 2009
11:16 am
I know that it means absolutely nothing, but Rivals has GT with an average of 3.5 player rating and Georgia with a 3.4 player rating for the 2010 class. Isn’t Georgia suppose to be significantly higher than GT. They always have a top a top five recruiting class even if 4 or 5 recruits don’t qualify and several end up in jail. Maybe the recruitment of a better quality of the individual has some meaning or relevance at GT. My theory is an intelligent/quality kid rated a 3 will ultimately produce better results than a dumb/thug who rated a 4 or 5. Maybe that’s why I like GT and hate Georgia.
Dooley's Cardiologist
August 4th, 2009
11:17 am
I thought that UGA linebacker was preseason All-SEC? I could have swore I heard someone say that he was. I guess my sources weren’t very credible on that one.
PT
August 4th, 2009
11:19 am
Not exact science, but look at every National title winner for the past 12 years, and you will find atleast one #1 recruiting class and several top 5 classes. You better recruit fellow.
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
11:23 am
“My theory is an intelligent/quality kid rated a 3 will ultimately produce better results than a dumb/thug who rated a 4 or 5.” I think your theory has some substance. Just look at Duke, Vandy, and Tech.
Big Ed, that’s a great reason to like GT football. I like tailgating with 100,000+ people and being 1 of 90,000+ in the stadium to watch a perennial Top 10 program. All of this while looking at beautiful women dressed in red and black skirts. Maybe that’s why I like Georgia and I hate GT.
JimboDawg
August 4th, 2009
11:29 am
J Smurf and I are lovers
rightofcenter
August 4th, 2009
11:32 am
The ACC Sports Journal has done a review for a number of years on this subject. The bottom line: the recruiting services have about as many misses as hits on an individual player basis. However, their team rankings are much more accurate. I do like what Paul Johnson said the other day: the NFL teams have much larger personnel budgets and a much smaller pool of players to evaluate, plus most of the players won’t change that much physically. Yet they still have a lot of misses every year. So how can you put much faith in a recruiting service? It’s merely an entertaining diversion until the first kickoff.
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
11:35 am
Smurf…no excuses were given in my post for this year’s Gator recruiting class (which just happens to be rated in the top 5 by almost every recruiting site so far). I was simply saying Meyer is obviously looking at more than just 5 stars when recruiting players now. He has commits from two players that had no stars when he recruited and received commits from them…and no other SEC schoool was recruiting either of them at the time. One recruit has enough high school credits to enter the U of F now…not in January, which he is doing. And he is going to be an outstanding wide receiver at Florida in the future. And your opinion of Meyer is just that….your opinion. Obviously, the President of the University of Florida…who is more intelligent than either you or me…does not share that opinion. Nor does the writer of the ESPN article who wrote about Meyer and the recent academic achievements of his players. You might want to read that article before making such rash statements about the man…who just happens to be the best coach and highest paid coach in the SEC right now. You don’t pay that kind of money to a person who has no conscience and who is not positive leader of young men.
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
11:46 am
I’m basing my opinion on facts. 24 arrests in 4 years. Sure, a “positive leader of young men”. You wouldn’t happen to have a name for this genius WR of yours, would you?
Don’t tase me bro.
Stephen
August 4th, 2009
11:53 am
Many of you have nailed what Chip Towers could not: There are way more 2 star players than 5 star players. The fact their numbers are equal on the All-SEC & ACC teams further strenghens the fact that the recruiting services do have value. This article is an embarrassment to ajc.com. A kid in middle school could see the failed logic in the article. The AJC should do better and the readers should expect better.
J Smurf
August 4th, 2009
12:01 pm
Nevermind, his name is Stephen Alli and he’s from New Hampshire. He caught 14 passes last year and has played 2 years of football. Sounds like a PR stunt to me.
OP Shark
August 4th, 2009
12:17 pm
The better and more objective analysis would be to check the number of stars Rivals and others assigned to the players taken in the April 2009 NFL draft. Or check the number of stars the 22 starters for the Falcons (or any other NFL team) had coming out of high school.
George P. Burdell
August 4th, 2009
12:29 pm
Rivals recruiting rankings for teams include a component for number of recruits as well as quality. With Tech only signing 12 players this year, even if they were all 4 or 5 stars, there is no way we break the top 10 in recruiting. That is also a product of the Gailey era where he got the classes out of balance. I think CPJ is making strides towards balancing the classes back out, but there is only so much you can do in a given year. It really means in years when we have a lot of scholarships, we may have to pass on some players to save the scholarship for a later year.
I liked the article but I do have to agree that comparing the arbitrary ranking system on the basis of a somewhat arbitrary preseason all-conference list may not tell much. I do enjoy going back to the old rankings and seeing which players ended up being good or bad. I think it is still weighted towards the higher rankings generally having better careers, but it is no where near significant enough for all the fervor that gets based on it. I think it’d be interesting to take a look at the less arbitrary post-season all-conference lists to see what that data shows.
78 DAWG
August 4th, 2009
12:35 pm
This is Bull! This just goes to show the anti DAWG leaning of this liberal rag! The DAWGS are in the top 5 in recruiting every year and it translates in to top 5 finishes on the field and in the class room. Use facts not BS!
Ga Boy
August 4th, 2009
12:38 pm
That was some pretty flawed logic Chip. There are only 17, 5 star athletes in the 2010 class according to Rivals. There are not that many 5 stars to go around. 70% of the time you can make statistics say anything you want and that is the truth 90% of the time.
Scout
August 4th, 2009
12:40 pm
We get it right most of the time… Julio Jones, AJ Green, Tim Tibow etc. We get it wrong sometimes… Jasper Sanks, Reshad Jones. But look at the teams playing for the NC the last 10 years and look at where they were ranked in the recruiting wars. There is a correlation.
Rather have folks recruited by LSU than Ga. Tech… see Chic-fil-a bowl.
The Sham
August 4th, 2009
12:42 pm
Chip: My intitial thoughts were similar to TampaGator’s (not proud to admit), but I do think the upsides and early maturity of these kids are more reflected in their recruiting rankings. I recall when Scout was analyzing Aaron Murray and Metzenburg to “guestimate” who would be a better prospect down the line and they used respective terms like “core muscles seemed to have developed already” or “core muscles were soft but the frame was there to be built upon”. Those aren’t exact quotes, but something similar. The end synopsis was that Murray was better prepared to make an impact sooner than Metz, but if I remember right, they were both 4 stars… My point is that these recruiting sites may or may not take into account what there future star value may be, so I’d like to see how many times a kid ends up on the all conference team during his eligible years (not just a snapshot) and that will tell a better story as to whether these sites get it right.
With that said, I do realize you are limited in time – but I like to critique none the less.
theTruth
August 4th, 2009
12:49 pm
TAMPAGATOR, You don’t pay that kind of money to a person who has no conscience and who is not positive leader of young men.
TG, there are many head football coaches that make ‘that kind of money’ that are not positive leaders of young men. Charlie Weis, Bobby Petrino, etc. Is is coincidence that UM is now making as much as Charlie Weis? Ole Charlie is making $4 mil at ND. By his actions and own words, I do not believe CW is a positive leader of young men.
Btw, how do you know Smurf isn’t as smart as your President of the University? The head man isn’t always the brightest apple on the tree. (Insert Lane Kiffin or Obama/Bush joke here) depending on your preference.
TRUE2THEJACKETS
August 4th, 2009
12:49 pm
IF YOUR A UGA FAN YOU GOTTA BE SICK WITH BEING CALLED LOSERS, YOUR TEAM DOES LESS WITH SOME OF THE BEST TALENT. I GUESS IT’S JUST IN THE AIR THERE IN REDNECKVILL ATHENS, MAYBE YOU GUYS SHOULD GROW PUMPKINS AND THROW THEM AROUND. WAY TO GO LOSERS….NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS…..UGA-1 GEORGIA TECH-5
JDW
August 4th, 2009
12:51 pm
Not surprising that ACC players have fewer stars than SEC players…the SEC has better players. If you only look at the SEC data there is only one player with a 2 star rating so 21 of 22 are rated 3 or better. 50% are rated at 4 or better. To really make sense of the data you need to know how many players in the league there were in each level. What % of five star recruits made all SEC? My guess is there are a lot more 3 star recruits that 5 star.
TRUE2THEJACKETS
August 4th, 2009
12:53 pm
HEY 78 DAWG, WHERE DO YOU SEE UGA IN THE TOP 5 AT THE END OF THE YEAR IN THE POLLS? JUST RECIENTLY HAVE THE FLEABAGS BEEN GETTING RANKED…LETS SAY THE PAST 5 YEARS MAYBE. BETTER READ UP ON YOUR STUFF AGAON AND EVEN NOW THEY DONT FINISH IN THE TOP 5 AT THE END OF THE SEASON.
TRUE2THEJACKETS
August 4th, 2009
12:54 pm
LOOK THE ACC FOOTBALL IS ALOT MOR COMPETATIVE THEN THE SEC BASKETBALL SO STOP TALKING, THE ACC IS A TOP 3 CONF IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL
TRUE2THEJACKETS
August 4th, 2009
12:56 pm
LOOK I HAVE A MILLION BUCKS IN MY POCKET THAT SAYS SOMEWHERE DOWN THE LINE UGA, LSU AND FLA WILL HAVE SANCTIONS AGAINST THE FOR VIOLATIONS FOUND OUT FOR THE PAST 8 YEARS. WANNA BET?
TRUE2THEJACKETS
August 4th, 2009
12:58 pm
I WILL BET YOU ANYTHING THAT LSU, UGA & FLA WILL BE INVESTIGATED BY THE NCAA FOR RECRUITING VIOLATIONS WITH IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS. LOOK UGA HAS NEVER RECRUITED THAT GOOD AND NOW THE PAST 6 YEARS THEY ARE GETTING 4 AND 5 STAR PLAYERS….WELL LOOK DEEP INTO IT, THEY WILL BE BUSTED
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
1:07 pm
Stephen…I believe you missed the main point of Chip’s article…as some others did, I believe. What I read into the article is that you can’t judge a high school player, or the future star ability of a high school player, by his current star rating. Or you can’t judge a current recruiting class my the star ranking of that class….and I also see no reason for you to personally attack a good AJC sports writer who, I think, writers some excellent and relevant stores for us to think about and blog about.
Whopper Dawg
August 4th, 2009
1:11 pm
The ratings are fair from an absolute. As a UGA fan, I would be highly concerned if our recruits were two stars or not ranked – something would be very wrong. Everyone has intangibles that ultimately are huge factors in the success of everyone in every walk of life. However, the schools are get the top grades in recruiting are usually the schools that win the games on the field, that is a direct correlation. If your class is chock full of a mix of 5s, 4s and 3s, you have done a pretty good job.
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
1:13 pm
TRUE2THEJACKETS….well, you might want to add Georgia Tech to that hit list because they are suddenly recruiting well, too. Have you ever thought that maybe Richt, Meyer, and now Johnson are recruiting so well because they (and their assistant coaches) out-work and out-think the competition. Knowing what Richt, Meyer, and Johnson stand for publicly…I don’t believe for a second that any of them are doing anything that intentionally goes against NCAA recruiting bylaws. I am sure Richt and Meyer…and now Johnson…are just sitting in their offices figuring out a way to get around the recruiting bylaws so they can some day lose their jobs…which pay them millions of dollars. Yeah, right!
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
1:42 pm
the Truth…what exactly has old Charlie done to those young men up at Notre Dame? I haven’t read any of those stories. The only stories I have read about him is related to his lack of head football coaching skills, not the poor or ill treatment of his players. Please share and enlighten me. Now, I understand your comments about the Arkansas coach, although he has seemingly righted his ship out there compared to his dealings with Louisville, Auburn, and the Falcons. People can learn valuable lessons from their mistakes, and maybe Patrino has learned his. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, at least for now, although how shallow that benefit of doubt might be based on his past dealings with people and organizations. But to put Meyer in the same category as Patrino’s past dealings is not worth any comment.
theTruth
August 4th, 2009
2:14 pm
TG, I wasn’t comparing Meyer to Petrino as far as ethics/morals, just that others ‘make that kind of money’ that aren’t leading young men in a positive manner as they should be.
Charlie has threw a few of his young men under the bus including year 2 of his regime when they started playing poorly including his assistant coaches at the time.
TampaGator
August 4th, 2009
2:34 pm
theTruth…If not, your post surely has a very strong inference to such. Plus, you still hvae not provided specifics concerning Charlie’s lack of honor related to his student athletes on the Notre Dame campus. All coaches, including Meyer and Richt, make changes to their rosters to change the culture and enviroment to the culture and environment they want to have. Some student athletes just don’t buy into what the new coach wants…which is usually wanting not to lose anymore. Plus, most coaches (college and pro) make assistant coaching changes when the team is not performing well. And I believe Meyer is doing a great job in leading the large majority of his young student athletes in a very positive manner (stated clearly in the ESPN article is you read it), and is dealing, and has dealt, with those “offending” student athletes on the U of F football team in a highly positive and fair manner, giving some of them a fair chance to change for the better and dealing with others by asking them to leave the team as appropriate (Davis, Brown, Hornsby). And Patrino does not make the money that Meyer makes. Not even close. Weiss does. In fact, he makes more than Meyer even with the new contract given to Meyer yesterday. And, by the way, Meyer is not going to Notre Dame next year…no matter what happens to good ole Charlie and his team this year up in South Bend. It also gets real cold up there in South Bend. Not so much in Gainesville.
jconservative
August 4th, 2009
3:23 pm
Several years ago someone out west ranked the Big 10. They put the stars by every grant-in-aid player on every Big 10 team. At the end of the season the ranking were compared with the win/loss records. Results: rankings were meaningless. The number of stars by a high school player had nothing to do with how the teams performed in the season. As a bonus, MVP for two teams were walkons.
But it does make for good conversation.
shane#1
August 4th, 2009
5:04 pm
I have checked the Rivals recruiting rankings for top five finishes from 2002 to 2009. The overall recruiting winner was USC, no suprise there, with six top five classes. Runners up were UF, LSU, and Texas, with four top five classes each. All of the above named programs had at least one number one class. OSU, UT, and Miami{FL} had three top five classes. What does this prove? OU has had two top five classes, and is the ONLY team with less than three top five classes to win a BCSNCG! UGA and Bama have had two top five classes each, but Bama’s classes in 2008 and 2009 were number one classes. So watch out for Bama! Oh, the Wasted Talent Award goes to FSU with four top five classes and little to show for it, when was the last time FSU won the ACC? Individual rankings may not matter, but team rankings sure do.
Paddy
August 4th, 2009
5:21 pm
Ward… I agree with you about St Simon. But sad to say this is not a UGA blog it is an AJC entity and as such all are welcome. No matter how stupid (add name St Simon) all are welcome but all are not appreciated.
Bo Williams
August 4th, 2009
5:55 pm
Oh Kendawg, how many first round draft picks came from the 2d-tier ACC?
Tokyo jacket
August 4th, 2009
7:14 pm
Sorry to get technical, but there’s a difference between correlation and causality. There is very clearly correlation between recruiting rankings and championships. But, I see no way to prove that those rankings are causing championships.
Atlanta Gator
August 4th, 2009
7:50 pm
Chip Towers—-I read this column with interest, and it represents the good quality analysis that we’ve come to expect from you. That being said, your statistical methodology is a little suspect (too small a sample of data points) and your dependent variable (whether a player makes the preseason All-SEC list) is amazingly subjective. You’re also mixing apples, oranges and pears when you compare football players from position to position. Hard enough to compare the outcome for a wide receiver and tailback, let alone a quarterback and a safety.
Have you ever done regression analysis? It’s really neat stuff to play with.
Basically, you pick a mathematically sound dependent variable (i.e. yardage gained, or percentage of passes completed), then select independent variables that may explain the differences in the dependent variables. For example, one of several independent variables could be the kid’s Rivals star-ranking (potential proxy), the number of years he’s been on the team (practice experience proxy), the number of games he’s started (game experience proxy), the team’s win-loss record (proxy for the quality of his teammates). Best to use a position-specific dependent variable, like passing yards, tackles, interceptions, touchdowns, rushing yards, etc., but you could use the all-SEC selection, but with the small available sample a total of 22 first-team selections, your results are going to have a much bigger standard of deviation, thereby reducing there predictive value. At a minimum, you should have a sample with 32 or more data points (i.e. players).
After “regressing” the dependent variable on the independent variables, the software program will tell you how much of the variation in the outcome (e.g. passing yards) is explained by each of the dependent variables (e.g., Rivals ranking, years on team, games started, win-loss record, etc.).
Now, that’s neat stuff, and I’m not even a Georgia Tech grad. LOL
ReptilesRule
August 4th, 2009
10:22 pm
Tampa Gator…your problem is that you are trying to use reason and logic while dealing with idiots. Don’t waste your time my friend. God himself could descend from the heavens, proclaim Urbans loyalty to Florida, put it on a stone tablet and mount it right next to Tebows “Promise” on the stadium wall and still these morons would insist he’s going to Notre Dame. I think you just must come to the simple “Truth” that some people just have a “Smurf” for brains.
Tokyo jacket
August 4th, 2009
10:59 pm
Atlanta Gator, great post. I almost thought about talking statistics for a moment instead of football. I have seen similar analysis with respect to draft potential and number of stars rated. The first reaction is to say “the same number of 2, 3, 4, and 5 star players get drafted every year, and actually a few more 2 and 3 stars.” But, the trick is that there is a much higher PERCENTAGE of the higher recruited players going to the pros because there are so much fewer 5-stars than 2-stars.
I agree with you that the real analysis comes in when you look at the other variables such as time on the bench and time on the field. If that number gets too high in either direction, it’s no good. 4 year starters often don’t make great NFL players because they relied on talent and never got to watch someone better than them. Cassell is the only guy I know of that could play in the NFL without ever starting a game. I think major programs don’t ever have to start first year guys and also play major talent on opposition. So, they create the key to playing in the NFL: learning off the field and learning on the field.
jarvis
August 4th, 2009
11:05 pm
How is 5 nearly as many as 8? It’s closer to being half than it is equal.
Tokyo jacket
August 4th, 2009
11:06 pm
jconservative…I totally disagree. What do Texas, UF, LSU and USC all have in common? They’ve all had a #1 recruting class and won a national championship within 3 years of that class in the past 10 years. But, I’m inclined to think it’s correlation more than causality.
What do UGA and ND have in common? They have consistently brought in top 5 classes with no NC over the past 5 years. I say they don’t have the coaching and development that the other teams I listed provide. CPJ’s 3- and 4-stars beat CMR’s 4- and 5-star players, but got hammered by LSU’s 4- and 5-stars.
Talent + Coaching + Luck = National Championship. If you’re missing one of the components, you will fall short.
jarvis
August 4th, 2009
11:14 pm
Tokyo – Terrell Davis played a very limited amount in college and was the most dominate RB in the game for a couple of years. I’m trying to think of some others, but coming up blank.
Maurice Clarett only played one year and…..wait….that’s not helping my argument at all.
hey WARD
August 5th, 2009
12:01 am
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
45-42
hey ward are you pi$$ed of yet? if not here is another for good measure….
FORTY FIVE TO forty two
ill meet you but youll have to tell me which one of these fug ugglies you are…….
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=140&f=2938&t=4534694
i think your the guy with the clown wig and the low hangers.
Tokyo jacket
August 5th, 2009
12:03 am
Jarvis, I agree with you actually. I think bench time is very important. Separate but related stat: up until Ben Rothlisberger’s rookie year, there were only two rookie QBs with a winning record, ever: Marino and Kerry Collins. Bench time is important.
Going pro early is historically not good for career success. As Cassell and TD prove, you can learn a lot on the bench.
Chip Towers
August 5th, 2009
6:29 am
Folks, I appreciate all the critical analysis of the data I compiled here, but this wasn’t scientific and it wasn’t supposed to be. I just pulled out the all-conference lists and looked up the star value each player received just to see what came out. . . . I think we all know that recruiting rankings are flawed and highly subjective. But it definitely gives us all something to talk about!
AtlantaTruth
August 5th, 2009
10:22 am
Tech has always been and will continue to be a lower tier division one school when it comes to thier football program. Tech fans blame thier past failures on the coaches they’ve hired and although thats part of the problem the main part is how the school is perceived by others like the media and high school athletes. Tech fans have never supported the football program. The only time they sell out their home games are when teams with winning programs come to Grant field. The very fact that they have to continuously advertize to sell tickets to games so they can fill up thier tiny stadium is proof that the Tech football program is considered as lower tier. Just look at how their fans respond and act on the blogs in the AJC…..like little kids (which most probably are)If you don’t think thier actions transends to people on the outside looking in at their program, why can’t they ever win the recruiting battle in the state of Georgia. Not only does UGA out recruit Tech each year in the state but so does, Auburn, Tenn, Clemson, S.Carolina and recently Alabama. Maybe CPJ will eventually turn that around…but I don’t think so. Tech will continue to sign the two and three star athletes that really want to go to other schools but know they won’t receive offers.Unless the Tech fan base starts putting thier money where their mouths are it won’t be long before CPJ leaves for a school that truely knows how to stand behind their team instead of hiding on this blog and taking cheap shots at successful programs.
PS.Tokyo jacket…ND hasn’t had a top five recruiting class in over ten years.
Few Georgia ’stars’ in newly revamped ESPN150 rankings | AJC College Sports Recruiting
August 5th, 2009
4:03 pm
[...] yesterday the much-maligned system of rating recruits with star rankings. Quite unscientifically, I listed the preseason All-ACC teams and All-SEC teams and pulled their corresponding star rankings …. The predictable outcome was that the teams weren’t made up of only 4- and 5-star players. In [...]
Big Dawg
August 6th, 2009
6:29 pm
As usual Chip a great article to get people thinking. The thing that corrupts this process is the subjective picking of pre-season All ACC and SEC teams. Being a football fan I know that the post season All conference teams will be a lot different than the pre-season teams as injuries and other factors will eliminate some players. So by the end of the year you will have a much clearer picture of how valuable or invaluable these recruiting rankings really are.
Keith
August 7th, 2009
1:32 pm
A big part of the stars thing is exposure. What camps you go to, who is showing interest, etc. It is also largely opinion base just like the pre season team rankings, and season rankings as well. I have watched a kid go from NR to two star just because a school came in to the mix. Then change to a 3 star when he signed his LOI. I think it has a lot to do with the schools that are recruiting a kid. They want their numbers to look good so a kid will change rankings when a GA or FL comes in to the fold. Like Tampa said, those numbers don’t only change while the kid progresses through a program, but they can change from the time he hits Rivals to the time he inks the LOI.