Archive for the ‘Strategic Vision’ Category

Two Georgia pollsters fare poorly in nationwide ranking

The New York Times last week announced that it would begin hosting the popular political blog FiveThirtyEight, and bring founder Nate Silver into its stable of regular contributors.

The NYT’s justification:

Mr. Silver, a statistical wizard, became a media star during the last presidential election season for his political projections based on dissections of polling data. He retains all rights to FiveThirtyEight and will continue to run it himself, but “under the banner and auspices of NYTimes.com,” The Times said in a news release.

In other words, what Silver writes suddenly has more weight. And on Sunday, the fivethirtyeight.com author ranked the nation’s pollsters. Georgia’s two polling firms, Strategic Vision and InsiderAdvantage, fared poorly.

Strategic Vision was blacklisted “for extreme misconduct; substantial likelihood that polls were fabricated.” See the background here. Dave Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision, has denied wrongdoing, but has severely cut back …

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On polls, Ralph Hudgens, and Strategic Vision

Georgia-based Strategic Vision’s return to public polling this week by the larger names in the field. The following was posted by Mike Blumenthal at Pollster.com:

But let’s ponder the meaning of “genuine” as we consider what Strategic Vision’s latest release doesnot tell us: They say nothing about the mode of the survey (whether it used live interviewers or some automated method), the sample frame (whether telephone numbers were selected from some sort of list or via a random digit method), the weighting procedure (whether results were weighted and the variables used to weight them), and they do not identify of who conducted the survey (the call center or field-work provider, if these used one). These basic facts are part of the minimal disclosure requirements of both AAPOR and the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP).

NCPP also requires that its members describe the “size and description of the subsample, if the survey report relies primarily on less than the total …

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Believe it or not, a pollster returns to the fray

Crushed into silence by wave of criticism that cut to the firm’s credibility, Georgia-based Strategic Vision on Monday issued its first statewide poll in six months.

We’ll get to the numbers in a second. The return of the GOP-oriented firm to polling is news in itself.

“We just decided to take a hiatus while the controversy detracted from our poll numbers,” said David Johnson, CEO of SV. “I’m not going to pursue it. I’m sure I’ll be hounded by somebody. We’re releasing the crosstabs and everything.”

Last year, Strategic Vision was censured for failing to cooperate in an investigation, conducted by the 2,000-member American Association for Public Opinion Research, into New Hampshire polling in the 2008 presidential primary.

Afterwards, Nate Silver, a prominent political statistician, publicly suggested, in a series of posts on his much-read blog, fivethirtyeight.com, that Strategic Vision might be making up its results.

Johnson made noises about filing a libel lawsuit, which he …

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Nate Silver again prods David Johnson and Strategic Vision for poll info

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com continues to worry David Johnson and Strategic Vision like a terrier with a chew toy.

After the American Association for Public Opinion Research censured Strategic Vision last week for his refusal to disclose his methodology, Silver ran several years of SV poll results through a randomization test, and declared the results to be suspicious — though not definitive.

In a weekend post, Johnson rejected the suggestion that his numbers might be fake, termed Silver’s comments a matter of libel, and promised legal action. He also promised to release crosstabs with all future polling.

But Silver wants more, and is willing to pay to get it – to a bona fide charity.

Here’s what he posted late last night:

Subject: couple questions
From: Nate Silver
To: xxx@strategicvision.biz

Hi David,

I’m writing you for two reasons.

Firstly, I wanted to make sure that you had some decent contact information for me. Was really looking forward to the lawsuit and …

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David Johnson and a troubled Strategic Vision promise crosstabs with every poll

Mark Twain divided falsehoods into three categories: Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Had he lived to see them, Twain might have added a fourth: Public opinion polls.

Atlanta has two political polling firms that routinely tell us who is ahead this race or that, whether for mayor of Atlanta or governor.

Front-running candidates often use numbers generated by these companies to raise campaign cash. Journalists sometimes use the same statistics to help determine which candidates are worth their time.

One of these survey companies, Republican-oriented Strategic Visions LLC, has just finished a very bad week.

The firm was censured by a national organization of pollsters. And Nate Silver, a prominent political statistician, publicly suggested, in a series of posts on his much-read blog, fivethirtyeight.com, that Strategic Vision might be making up its results.

A clearly exhausted David Johnson, CEO of seven-year-old Strategic Vision, on Friday called the intimations libelous. …

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