With Obama (relatively) close in Ga., chances of a popular-electoral split are slim

The last week has been with replete with national polls showing a lead by Republican Mitt Romney, but swing state surveys that show President Barack Obama firmly in control there — leading some to wonder whether one candidate (Romney) could win the popular vote while another (Obama) wins the electoral contest.

The NYT’s Nate Silver today points to Georgia polling as a reason that this is unlikely to happen:

Mr. Obama trailed by “only” eight points, for instance, in a poll of Georgia that was released on Tuesday. Those are somewhat worse results than Mr. Obama achieved in 2008, when he lost Georgia by five percentage points. But they’re only a little bit worse, whereas the national polls are suggestive of a larger decline for Mr. Obama in the popular vote.

The survey in question is the Survey USA poll commissioned by 11Alive. An AJC poll of the presidential contest in Georgia, conducted two weeks ago, showed a similar margin. We’ll let Silver continue:

Or take the poll of Texas, also out on Tuesday, which had Mr. Obama behind by 16 points there. He’s obviously no threat to win the state or come close to it, but that still represents only a 4-point decline for Mr. Obama from 2008, when he lost Texas by 12 points instead.

High-population red states like these, Texas and Georgia, are just the sort of places where Mr. Obama would need to lose a lot of ground in order to increase the likelihood of his winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider

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29 comments Add your comment

atticus_thomas

October 31st, 2012
2:25 pm

RNC internal polling show Romney by a landslide.

Danny O

October 31st, 2012
2:34 pm

How about a poll on whether to ditch the electoral college system?

Nathan_Deal

October 31st, 2012
2:35 pm

We Southern Baptists are still highly reluctant to vote for a Mormom Cultist so it’s easy to see why President Obama is keeping this a close race in southern “red states.”

Saint Simon

October 31st, 2012
2:47 pm

Nathan_Deal: So you’d rather vote Muslim than Mormom (sic)?

Nathan_Deal

October 31st, 2012
2:52 pm

No Simon, I’d rather vote for Newtie! I told you all it would come to this.

Puerile Pedant

October 31st, 2012
2:56 pm

Winning the popular vote doesn’t make you president; winning the electoral college vote does. In 2000 Big Al won the popular vote and W won the electoral college.

Before the election it looked like it would go the other way and Georgia’s-own world class buffoon Newtsy Gingrich said that if Gore won the E.C. but lost the popular vote he should do the right thing and step aside. Of course, when the opposite happened, Georgia’s world-class hippo-crite was nowhere to be seem

Obama will win the E.C. and be President. He ran a lousy campaign and his record doesn’t merit another term. But Romney is a consummate flip-flopper and doesn’t deserve to be President either. Its a fine mess we are in.

The best part of the attached link are the looney-tunes that also ran in 2000:

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/prespop.htm

Lester Maddox....

October 31st, 2012
2:57 pm

Your statement that Osama Hussien Obama is “firmly in control of the swing states” is total BS. You must be watching that liberal lap dog NBC. The most inexperienced, unqualified, incompetent Muslim to ever occupy the White House will go flaming down in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin and Florida next Tuesday and We The People will regain control of this country. Socialism sucks. You’re a fool, Galloway.

jay

October 31st, 2012
3:00 pm

The scary thing about all these polls is that news sources from the Right have Romney winning (with possibility of landslide, ie Dick Morris) The news sources from the Left have the President winning (by a larger amount in Electoral College) When one side loses on Tuesday it is going to be a huge shock to that one side and will call in question the legitimacy of the results. Very dangerous times.

A big mess is going to happen

October 31st, 2012
3:48 pm

Ohio is not counting their absentee ballots UNTIL NOVEMBER 17TH!, unless Mittens conceeds, this will be dragged out like in 2000. President Obama will win electoral college with Ohio and the gop is going to fight this until absentee ballots are cast and electors actually cast their votes. Then the gop House will start talk about moving to a popular vote system.

Shar

October 31st, 2012
4:03 pm

@jay, that is a very good point. These echo chambers, of whatever stripe, are undermining our ability to understand and respect one another, even when we do not agree.

Wesley T.

October 31st, 2012
4:16 pm

@jay, good point about echo chambers, but just for the record Dick Morris is not a news source. He’s a joke with an almost unspeakably bad record of predicting election outcomes.

All I'm Saying Is...

October 31st, 2012
4:19 pm

All polls are snapshots and all national snapshots have been rendered worthless thanks to the power outages left in Hurricane Sandy’s wake. The only polls that matter are in the six to eight battleground states: tier one: Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia; tier two: Nevada, Florida, and New Hampshire; and tier three: Colorado and Wisconsin. Of those eight, Romney is going to win Virginia, Florida, and Colorado. Obama is going to win Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and, I say, Wisconsin (most of the state doesn’t like smug Ryan). And with that result, folks, the President is re-elected. Deal with that.

DJ Sniper

October 31st, 2012
4:19 pm

Can any of you neo-con nutjobs provide concrete proof that Obama is a Muslim? The voices in your head don’t count.

honested

October 31st, 2012
4:22 pm

All I’m Saying…..

I wholeheartedly agree!

But romney will win ‘dixie’.
Which is like being the ’star student’ in Mississippi.

Mr. Thomas Anrhony Jones, SR

October 31st, 2012
4:41 pm

As a Democratic party voter, supporter and contributor I find it interesting that people do not notice all the racist hate mail that President and First Lady Barack Hussein and Michelle Obama and their children receive from Recist Republicans. I notice that the AJC and the rest of the news media covers up all the racist hate mail they receive from Racist Republicans.Enough said.

Mr. Thomas Anrhony Jones, SR

October 31st, 2012
4:41 pm

As a Democratic party voter, supporter and contributor I find it interesting that people do not notice all the racist hate mail that President and First Lady Barack Hussein and Michelle Obama and their children receive from Recist Republicans. I notice that the AJC and the rest of the news media covers up all the racist hate mail they receive from Racist Republicans.Enough said.

Mr. Thomas Anrhony Jones, SR

October 31st, 2012
4:41 pm

As a Democratic party voter, supporter and contributor I find it interesting that people do not notice all the racist hate mail that President and First Lady Barack Hussein and Michelle Obama and their children receive from Recist Republicans. I notice that the AJC and the rest of the news media covers up all the racist hate mail they receive from Racist Republicans.Enough said.

Mr. Thomas Anrhony Jones, SR

October 31st, 2012
4:41 pm

As a Democratic party voter, supporter and contributor I find it interesting that people do not notice all the racist hate mail that President and First Lady Barack Hussein and Michelle Obama and their children receive from Recist Republicans. I notice that the AJC and the rest of the news media covers up all the racist hate mail they receive from Racist Republicans.Enough said.

Mr. Thomas Anrhony Jones, SR

October 31st, 2012
4:41 pm

As a Democratic party voter, supporter and contributor I find it interesting that people do not notice all the racist hate mail that President and First Lady Barack Hussein and Michelle Obama and their children receive from Recist Republicans. I notice that the AJC and the rest of the news media covers up all the racist hate mail they receive from Racist Republicans.Enough said.

John

October 31st, 2012
6:16 pm

Why vote “Muslim” OR Mormon when you can vote Christian (Lutheran) by voting for Gary Johnson?

Jay

October 31st, 2012
11:54 pm

@Shar, thanks
@Wesley, I agree with you on Dick but there are others that believe him hence the disconnect. It is like we are not speaking the same language.

Big Hat

November 1st, 2012
12:13 am

Fox News reported that Obama has a black baby, just like John McCain. Why aren’t the other LSM covering that?

Debra

November 1st, 2012
2:22 am

Well Romney leads in Swing State newspaper endorsements……11 to 8. Let’s hope the good people in those swing states follow in line with their state endorsement! O got a pass at every turn in 2008, but the American people see him for who he is; no thanks to the Lib media who are in his pocket and keeping the Benghazi coverup quiet until after 11/6. Thank God for the movie 2016, cuz he is the MOST unknown, mysterious, come from NO WHERE President ever. NO job record and HE is holding the most important office in the world? Really? I wasn’t hood winked by his “resume” before and I won’t be voting for him this time. Mitt’s resume is for me! He is an Eagle Scout and never done an illegal thing ever. Hoping there is no close call Tuesday….Mitt gets the popular vote and electoral vote!
ROMNEY/RYAN……..ALL THE WAY TO THE WH! Let’s get OUR America back and send BO to Hawaii or Indonesia or maybe Benghazi?

Big Al daLomba

November 1st, 2012
4:54 am

@Big Hat- you nut jobs will try anything. The funny thing is, most of you quacks work at Walmart and other low paying jobs for uneducated people, and would benefit from the government programs that the dems put forth.

FatFreddy

November 1st, 2012
6:30 am

Ignore Galloway, we know he’s in the tank for Obowma..

BHO is NOT a Muslim. he is too busy worshipping himself. he does have a deep affinity for them though – kind of like Stockholm Syndrome.

Hopefully, in just a few weeks, he’ll be able to graduate from the confines of the Oval Office to the plummy international job he’s always wanted, Ambassador Plenipotentiary without Portfolio Between Eastern and Western Hemispheres. Nothing to do, and everything to say, yada yada.

They can make up the title for him at the UN, give him a big expense account, and keep him him there forever, like the unleashed housepet he’s always wanted to be.

Realist

November 1st, 2012
11:16 am

The nerve of the Republican party. You uneducated idiots have turn this election into a race issue. Majority of you dont have a college degree, you work and make 7.00 an hour and you live in a trailer park with a ragdey trailer. You are part of the 47% that Romney plans NOT to help. You dummies need to move away from being raciest to focusing on rebuilding. We was put in this mess from a Republican and you want to represent the same policies. REally, does that make any sense. I drive down the road and I am tickeled to deaf. I see old ragedy cars barely making it down the road and have the nerve to have a Romney sticker on it as your choice. He is not for middle class, certainly not for the poor white trash. My pray is that Our President will continue the fine job he is doing as commander and chief.

XOXO

November 1st, 2012
1:09 pm

My understanding, from recent ‘polls’ in my state, is higher income receivers (for whatever reason) are more to likely vote ‘red’. I don’t know where you are where you see all the junk cars with bumper stickers for ‘red’. I have a Really junky looking car because it still runs good and paid for. Not increasing deficit that doesn’t help anybody.

JJ Jones

November 1st, 2012
2:10 pm

“atticus_thomas

October 31st, 2012
2:25 pm
RNC internal polling show Romney by a landslide.”

Of course it does…

Rasmussen is the only polling company showing Romney winning in Ohio and Rasmussen is on the Fox News payroll.

Realist

November 1st, 2012
3:13 pm

I am black and all blacks should vote for Obama. That is not racist at all.