Just posted by Jeff Masters at Weather Underground:
Isaac is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 – 30, and the official [National Hurricane Center] forecast now has Tampa in the 5-day cone of uncertainly. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 9% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds for the 24-hour period ending on the morning of first day of the convention (Monday).
I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. I put the odds of an evacuation occurring during the convention in the current situation at 3%.
This weekend, J. Marshall Shepherd, who directs the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia and is president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, had an article on the topic of hurricanes, Florida and global warming, published in the Tampa Tribune. It