Just posted by Jeff Masters at Weather Underground:
Isaac is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 – 30, and the official [National Hurricane Center] forecast now has Tampa in the 5-day cone of uncertainly. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 9% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds for the 24-hour period ending on the morning of first day of the convention (Monday).
I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. I put the odds of an evacuation occurring during the convention in the current situation at 3%.
This weekend, J. Marshall Shepherd, who directs the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia and is president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, had an article on the topic of hurricanes, Florida and global warming, published in the Tampa Tribune. It included this:
If a doctor gave you a 1 in 6 chance of catching the flu this season, there is a pretty strong likelihood you would get a flu shot.
Climatologists at Climate Central recently published a peer-reviewed report and set of interactive maps showing areas of the Tampa Bay region that have a 1 in 6 chance of flood risk due to sea level rise, storm surge and tide.
The study projects a sea level rise for 2020 to 2070 that ranges from 1 to 10 feet. The Tampa Bay Estuary Program notes that water levels in Tampa Bay have been rising roughly an inch per decade since the 1950s. This rate will likely accelerate in coming years.
To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, many Republicans aren’t ready to swallow global warming. But global warming may be ready to swallow them.
- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider