Chances of hurricane evacuation in Tampa placed at 3 percent

Just posted by Jeff Masters at Weather Underground:

Isaac is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 – 30, and the official [National Hurricane Center] forecast now has Tampa in the 5-day cone of uncertainly. The latest 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gives Tampa a 9% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds for the 24-hour period ending on the morning of first day of the convention (Monday).

I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. I put the odds of an evacuation occurring during the convention in the current situation at 3%.

This weekend, J. Marshall Shepherd, who directs the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia and is president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, had an article on the topic of hurricanes, Florida and global warming, published in the Tampa Tribune. It included this:

If a doctor gave you a 1 in 6 chance of catching the flu this season, there is a pretty strong likelihood you would get a flu shot.

Climatologists at Climate Central recently published a peer-reviewed report and set of interactive maps showing areas of the Tampa Bay region that have a 1 in 6 chance of flood risk due to sea level rise, storm surge and tide.

The study projects a sea level rise for 2020 to 2070 that ranges from 1 to 10 feet. The Tampa Bay Estuary Program notes that water levels in Tampa Bay have been rising roughly an inch per decade since the 1950s. This rate will likely accelerate in coming years.

To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, many Republicans aren’t ready to swallow global warming. But global warming may be ready to swallow them.

- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider

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76 comments Add your comment

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
3:27 pm

The hot air and storm of bull sheet coming from those clowns will raise the probability to around 97%. But if a storm hits, michelle and marcus bachmann will be there, along with the tony perkins types to “pray it away”

Going Right

August 22nd, 2012
3:35 pm

Speaking of “praying…” the Republicans would be praying but not alongside the Dimocrats. Are there even a handful of Dimo who believe in God and would pray? Thought not.
To paraphrase Ronald Reagan, “…There you go again (Aunti…)”

Kris

August 22nd, 2012
3:41 pm

@ Auntie …Well said.

IF the RNC is canceled just think of all the revenue the prostitutes will loose let alone the buses carrying the gop slime to skinny dip in the ocean, This is God’s way of protecting the fishes.

joe

August 22nd, 2012
3:44 pm

If the Hurricane hits, its gotta be Bush’s fault…per any Dumbarse Dem on the planet.

God Sent

August 22nd, 2012
3:46 pm

Whats wrong with praying?Let me guess ur one of those we evolved from ape types right?

DannyX

August 22nd, 2012
3:50 pm

When are Republicans going to get the message? God isn’t happy with them.

In 2008 a hurricane struck Louisiana during the Republican Convention. God has directed this hurricane directly at the Republicans this time. Republican idolization of the rich and their kicking the poor have made God irate.

George W and Cheney used the last hurricane as a convenient excuse to miss the last convention. How convenient they get to use that excuse again. I wonder if Pat Robertson will show up?

REPENT all you Republicans! Its not too late!!

DannyX

August 22nd, 2012
3:54 pm

“Whats wrong with praying?”

Nothing at all, as long as you follow the words of Jesus and only pray in private.

Matthew 6 5-8

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
3:55 pm

God Sent
August 22nd, 2012
3:46 pm

Whats wrong with praying?Let me guess ur one of those we evolved from ape types right?
************************************************************

Let me guess, you are one of the apes, right?

floridian

August 22nd, 2012
4:04 pm

Oh, we are so hoping it shallac’s the crap outa Tampa, then we can say it’s God’s retribution against the GOP just like the GOP evangelicals said Katrina was all New Orleans’ fault, God willed it and they got what they deserved.

findog

August 22nd, 2012
4:05 pm

The Tampa area rises from the ocean 1-foot a mile
Seven foot storm surge from a Northeastern in early 90’s went in seven miles.
Lucky for Tampa they have a great flood plain manager; they are ready.
Now, if a hurricane hits will global warming be accepted?

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
4:06 pm

For those who are accusing me of not praying, I’ll have you know I pray every day to God, Jehova, Yawah, Allah, Zeus, Buddha, Zarathustra, Jesus, Bruce Almighty, and George Burns. I cover all the bases, just in case.

Maybe one of you good christians can tell me tho, is it redundant to pray to Jesus after I pray to God, I mean since they are both one and the same, and do I have to pray to the father, son and holy ghost? This is all so confusing to me.

Pamela

August 22nd, 2012
4:06 pm

I wish this hurricane do swallow those red necks! Afterall they don’t believe in global warming…. :) EXPERIENCE IS the best teacher. :)

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
4:10 pm

And if a storm does hit, I am confident that these good republicans will refuse any help from government workers like EMT’s, rescue workers, fire and police. Neither will they be tuned to the NATIONAL weather service for updates on the storm. That would be just downright hypocritical of them if they did.

honested

August 22nd, 2012
4:11 pm

What’s wrong with praying?

Nothing, if you do it to make yourself feel better.

What good does praying do?

None, unless you do it to make yourself feel better.

No difference, same outcome.

td

August 22nd, 2012
4:16 pm

I thought all you OWS people were going down to Tampa to show those “rich white B’s) that you were not going to take it anymore? I guess you are all to scared now that a little tropical system might come through. Typical libs.

NotYou

August 22nd, 2012
4:25 pm

Always good of those that don’t use prayer to tell you what it’s all about. Glad to see all the open-minded, nonjudgmental people have arrived to comment.

so

August 22nd, 2012
4:28 pm

Because a hurricane never hit NC.

Hurricane Issac

August 22nd, 2012
4:28 pm

REPENT Republicans or face the wrath of my holy water!

Uncle

August 22nd, 2012
4:30 pm

Why are you non-religious types so angry? Hard to say the other side starts all the fights when y’all spout off BS the first chance you get.

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
4:44 pm

I thought all you OWS people were going down to Tampa:

Opulent Wall Streeters: check, they’ll be there buying up a few more repubs.

Old White Sh–ts: check, they’ll be there, they’ll be in the majority

Obnoxious Whining Sonsab—ches: check, hannity, limbaugh, oreilly, ailes et al have already rsvp’ed

Odorous Warty Sellouts: check, deal and the rest of the Ga contingent have verified attending (remember to check balfour’s expense vouchers when they get back, he’ll probably claim to be on state business)

Our Weak Sisters: check, all the chicken hawk warmonger draft dodgers will be there (look for saxby’s flag, the one with the chick filet chicken on it)

Other Wimpering Sissies: check, of course romney will be there!

I’m sure td lots more OWS folks will be in Tampa, lets hope tho that these I mention do get some backbone and don’t wimp out if it rains.

God Sent

August 22nd, 2012
4:46 pm

Auntie Christ u never answered the question RU one of those we evolved from ape types.Clearly ur with all the sarcasm and blasphemy.Why RU guys always so angry and so defensive when it comes to other people faith.Is it because u feel guilty about your own beliefs?If u believe there isn’t a god that’s your belief.Man just stop knocking other peoples belief

zeke

August 22nd, 2012
4:47 pm

maybe storms will discourage skinny dipping in the gulf

AnotherSoldier

August 22nd, 2012
4:49 pm

“And so many of the people in the arena here, you know, were underprivileged anyway, so this (she chuckles slightly)–this is working very well for them.” – Barbara Bush, comment about Katrina evacuees in Houston.

Yeah, please tell me more about how the GOP is all about God.

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
4:52 pm

Uncle
August 22nd, 2012
4:30 pm

Why are you non-religious types so angry?

Why do all you religious types concern yourself with what I believe or don’t believe? Why are you so intent to push your beliefs on me, insisting on posting religious icons in schools, parks, and every other public place, insisting on making someone’s religion or lack of a campaign issue, trying to open every public event with one of your prayers, and worst of all, trying to make the war to protect all of us a “crusade” against another religion. After a while it all starts to get on one’s nerves.

zeke

August 22nd, 2012
5:00 pm

i wonder if the religious types understand our ancestors came from africa?

BirdDawg25

August 22nd, 2012
5:02 pm

There is a storm brewing , it will be all the Ron Paul supporters riding into town. they will be a force to be reckoned with. Ron Paul is the right man for the job.

DebDoes

August 22nd, 2012
5:03 pm

I’m a Dem and I pray….so I’m praying for a storm in Tampa. If you are a gambling Republican, take my bet: if the storm hits, the Republicans will get wet, if it doesn’t they won’t!

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
5:04 pm

God Sent
August 22nd, 2012
4:46 pm

Auntie Christ u never answered the question RU one of those we evolved from ape types.
*****************************************

Your question reveals your lack of knowledge of the process of evolution and natural selection, a shortcoming so many of you “I didn’t come from no ape” types possess. Iguanas and alligators have a common ancestor, bears and dogs have a common ancestor, zebras and horses have a common ancestor, and somewhere back in the dark reaches of time, you and the baboons have a common ancestor.

Now if you want to argue that supposition, and claim we all came from Adam and Eve, be prepared to ’splain to me how I came from an incestuous relationship, which if you are going to quote Genesis is the only way we could have got here, either from A & E or from Noah & family.

cc

August 22nd, 2012
5:05 pm

Are the dim-wits now counting on a hurricane to obama?

Don’t hold your breath! obama is a goner and so is the dimocrat controlled senate.

Party hearty, libs/commies. Your party is nearly over . . .

cc

August 22nd, 2012
5:07 pm

“Are the dim-wits now counting on a hurricane to obama?” should read:

Are the dim-wits now counting on a hurricane to save obama?

Dave

August 22nd, 2012
5:07 pm

I remember several years ago there were three major hurricanes which hit Florida the same summer.

Global warming alarmists confidently predicted that this was the “new normal”, and that Florida should expect several major hurricanes hitting it every year from then on.

For the next several years, no hurricanes at all hit Florida.

If you’re someone who believes in the theory of anthropogenic global warming, it would be best to tamp down the wild-eyed alarmists in your own midst. They’re the ones doing the most harm to your cause right now.

Most people can buy into the idea that 6 billion human beings are having some impact on the environment. Most people can’t buy into the histerical assertions being made by the Al Gore and hollywood types.

DannyX

August 22nd, 2012
5:10 pm

“”"”“Are the dim-wits now counting on a hurricane to obama?” should read:

Are the dim-wits now counting on a hurricane to save obama?”"”"

Now that’s kind of ironic.

East Cobb RINO, Inc. (LLC)

August 22nd, 2012
5:11 pm

It is Isaac, son of Abraham, sent by God to deliver his wrath upon Joe Redner. But the Republicans will be spared from the flood as they will all be high above the flood waters up in the space needle.

DannyX

August 22nd, 2012
5:13 pm

“Most people can’t buy into the histerical assertions being made by the Al Gore and hollywood types.”

Don’t forget those scientist types.

Including the Koch bought scientist who recently changed his mind and now thinks global warming is man made and dangerous.

Kris

August 22nd, 2012
5:18 pm

Hurricane Isaac is God’s way of …oh what is that wording the stinking GOP slime use….oh “forcible” rape”of the RNC. And yes there ore 32 thousand cases of pregnancies a year due to RAPE

She does have a sense of humor.

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
5:26 pm

East Cobb RINO, Inc. (LLC)
August 22nd, 2012
5:11 pm

But the Republicans will be spared from the flood as they will all be high above the flood waters up in the space needle.
**************************************

All except newt, he’s packing up calista and three of his finest mistresses and heading for the moon colony. (soon as he fills his government health care provided viagra scrip, but alas the ladies have to provide their own BC pills, newt doesn’t think the government should provide those).

Just Wait

August 22nd, 2012
5:33 pm

They don’t need a hurricane, their will blow up their own storm of destruction just from talking. But then again, so will the Democrats.

East Cobb RINO, Inc. (LLC)

August 22nd, 2012
5:38 pm

Too bad the RNC did not book the moon for their convention.

Anyone that did not get my joke should search on Joe Redner, Mons Venus, or click the link below. The spaceship is easy to spot.

http://2001nude.com/

Pizzaman

August 22nd, 2012
5:38 pm

A “hard blow” threatens the convention of “blowhards”. How appropriate.

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
5:46 pm

East Cobb RINO, Inc. (LLC)
August 22nd, 2012
5:38 pm

Too bad the RNC did not book the moon for their convention.

Anyone that did not get my joke should search on Joe Redner, Mons Venus, or click the link below.
*******************************************

So that explains why all the christians who had been commenting so profusely suddenly ceased. They got the joke, but us godless heathens had no idea. They’ll all be back after the 15 minute free access pass expires.

RaceToTheBottom

August 22nd, 2012
5:50 pm

A hurricane might wake up the delegates listening to the “let’s make everything sno-white” blather from the podium.

honested

August 22nd, 2012
5:53 pm

AC,

Need to check balfour’s receipts very carefully.
No telling how many special rooms he would need to do ’state business’ at 2001.

findog

August 22nd, 2012
6:01 pm

td,
My friend, the first rule of combat is to never stop the enemy from destroying itself.
While I do not consider republicans as the enemy I feel sure they will destroy themselves in Tampa without any moderate or liberal assistance.

findog

August 22nd, 2012
6:05 pm

Dave,
That was 2004 and President Bush personally went down there to hand out free water.
That’s what made his flippant response a year later [non-election year] so freaking bad

burt

August 22nd, 2012
6:09 pm

I would hide in bachmann’s hairdo if the wind pick up.

Auntie Christ

August 22nd, 2012
6:10 pm

honested
August 22nd, 2012
5:53 pm

No telling how many special rooms he would need to do ’state business’ at 2001…..

and how much government provided viagra he’ll need to do it.

von

August 22nd, 2012
6:38 pm

Global Warming is about as likely to swallow someone as the Tooth Fairy is going to demand a refund for dentures and both for the same reason.

zeke

August 22nd, 2012
7:25 pm

glad to see another knuckledragger enter the fray

Going Right

August 22nd, 2012
7:26 pm

Anti Christ – 4.06p
Quote: “This is all so confusing to me.” With religion, as with all other things requiring considered thought and understanding,, everything is “confusing.”

td

August 22nd, 2012
7:56 pm

Just thought you libs might find this interesting reading. Anything for my friends. LOL

“Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012″

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/university-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk3&pLid=195989