Your morning jolt: Barack Obama leaking white voters

The Gallup organization has become the bearer of worrisome mathematics for President Barack Obama:

Barack Obama is receiving less support in the 2012 presidential election from some of the white subgroups that gave him the strongest support in 2008. These include non-Hispanic white registered voters who are 18 to 29 years old, female postgrads, and the nonreligious, among others.

The 46% of registered voters supporting Obama today is five percentage points below the 51% supporting him in final weeks of the 2008 election campaign. Similarly, whites’ support for Obama is six points lower than it was in October/November 2008 (38% vs. 44%), and blacks’ is down four points (87% vs. 91%). At the same time, Hispanics’ support, at 67%, is essentially unchanged….

Even if Obama were to regain his 2008 level of support among blacks and improve his support somewhat among Hispanics, he could still lose if his support among whites slips any further. By the same token, even a slight increase in whites’ support could secure his re-election.

***
My AJC colleague Daniel Malloy says Georgia members of Congress – and many others – have found ways around a ban on outings financed by lobbyists. The trips are now financed by education and charity organizations, set up by those same lobbyists. Two paragraphs:

The pace of trips has only accelerated in 2012, including Tifton Rep. Austin Scott’s January excursion to Taiwan with his wife and two staff members. They flew first class and stayed in the $200-per-night Far Eastern Plaza Hotel, with the total tab of nearly $45,000 picked up by Fu Jen Catholic University, an elite school on the island that has hosted several members of Congress.

Scott said in a statement that the trip was valuable to his work on the Armed Services and Agriculture committees, and he used a meeting with Taiwan’s president to talk about the contentious issue of U.S. beef exports.

***
U.S. Rep. Tom Price of Roswell is the star of a piece in The Hill that examines House Republican ambitions in the health care field that will be unveiled only after the U.S. Supreme Court hands down its ruling:

Planning for the GOP got a little easier this week when three large insurers said they would voluntarily leave in place certain parts of the healthcare law even if the statute is struck down. UnitedHealth, Humana and Aetna said they would continue to let young people stay on their parents’ plans through age 26 — a popular piece of the health law that Republicans had said they planned to replace.

The rest of the “transition” won’t be as easy. Drug companies might not be able to voluntarily continue providing discounts on prescription drugs, and some items just can’t be done by the private sector. Part of the law simply reauthorized existing programs, some of which had been in place for decades before the healthcare law was signed.

When asked whether the GOP would move first to replace the law’s reauthorizations and other small-bore, generally agreed-upon items, Price said such speculation was “premature.”

Buzzfeed reports that the price of a Newt Gingrich speech inside the D.C. Beltway has risen to $25,000. Ocean crossings push his ticket beyond $100,000:

That puts his speaking fees below James Carville’s and Mike Huckabee’s….but Gingrich — who is trying to reassemble his private sector empire after a presidential bid that left it in ruins — may be able to make up on volume what he loses on sticker price.

***
While many candidates are embracing that $100 (per day) cap on gifts from lobbyists to state lawmakers, three of four candidates in the race for Senate District 6 – including Democratic incumbent Doug Stoner – say they won’t sign a pledge to that effect.

Stoner says he prefers to make his campaign promises only to his constituents. Three Republican candidates — eager to grab a redrawn district that stretches from Smyrna through Buckhead — explained themselves last night at a forum sponsored by the Cobb County Republican Women’s Club. From the Marietta Daily Journal:

[Attorney Josh] Belinfante said while he didn’t believe in signing pledges, he had imposed a $100 lobbyist gift cap on himself.

[Furniture businessman Drew] Ellenburg said he had agreed to sign the pledge inked by Common Cause Georgia, Georgia Tea Party Patriots and Georgia Conservatives in Action, which states that lawmakers will not accept lobbyist gifts worth more than $100.

“Frankly, I have a job, and I run a business and I don’t want anybody buying my lunch and giving me presents,” Ellenburg said. “It’s pretty simple.”

[Hunter] Hill said ethics rules should be reformed to put more of an onus on lawmakers.

“Currently lobbyists can give to legislators an unlimited amount of gifts that only they report,” Hill said. “I am for proposing that legislators also have to report any sort of gifts they’re given, who gave it to them and what is the value of that gift is. … Whether the gift ban is $100 — which I’ll support — or if it’s $50 or $25, it’s irrelevant. … you can hold us accountable. You’ve elected us.”

***
We often talk about the gap between Republican officeholders and the state GOP, but a similar chasm exists on the Democratic side. This is from a fund-raising missive sent out by the progressive group Better Georgia, featuring former Gov. Roy Barnes:

Party-driven partisan politics is holding Georgia back. Political parties are no longer the most effective or the most efficient way to support progressive values, ballot issues or candidates.

All you have to do is look at the laws passed in last session to know that progressive values are being ignored, sometimes by politicians from BOTH parties: like the importance of investing in high quality public education, protecting the HOPE Scholarship, making sure we care for our precious natural resources and making sure every citizen has access to an adequately funded judiciary.

***
Walter Jones of Morris News Service says business and community leaders across the state are meeting in Albany today “to plot defensive strategies for fending off action by Washington to cut or close the state’s military installations.”

Writes Jones:

While no new round of base closings has been announced, military leaders expect one in the next few years based on previous rounds that came about every four years. The last, in 2005, resulted in Georgia losing the Navy Supply Corps School in Athens, the Naval Air Station in Marietta and the Army’s Fort Gillem/Fort McPherson headquarters/supply complex in Atlanta.

- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider

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72 comments Add your comment

Jeff

June 13th, 2012
9:40 am

Interesting that Obama’s support among “non-Hispanic white registered voters who are 18 to 29 years old, female postgrads, and the nonreligious” is down about 5-6%…. and Gary Johnson is polling around 5-8%….

Kinda bursts the GOP’s bubble that the ONE man who could actually beat Obama, and that they rejected, is “stealing votes” from Romney….

clyde

June 13th, 2012
9:40 am

Obama does not have to worry.The justice??department is suing to keep non-citizens on the voter rolls in Florida.That’ll help.

Ah,the dreaded ethics and the politician.Them that can be bought will find a way to be bought.Wonderful people.those that are paid for.

Independent voter

June 13th, 2012
9:43 am

He’s leaking ALL VOTERS… disappointed blacks.. women.. young voters of all colors who can’t find a job or just working part time… I’m a middle class taxpayer and we can’t afford public Labor Unions.. I’ve got friends who are teachers and fire men… they have long vacations.. early retirement …. we have to support them to ” buy ” democrat votes ??? we have to vote him OUT !!!!!

the cat

June 13th, 2012
9:45 am

i voter-what do your teacher and firefighter friends think about Romney’s pledge to fire them all? They okay with that?

Destin Dawg

June 13th, 2012
9:49 am

this election should be a land slide… Obama does not understand businees.. he never had a real job or run a company.. what exactly is a Community organizer any way ??? can’t be Pro Labor Union anti business and create jobs…. I have to vote for Romney

Independent voter

June 13th, 2012
9:54 am

Cat… no not fire ‘em dumby.. just eliminate a few expensive benefits.. too much overtime / vaction / early retirement we need firemen teachers etc.. they can put their Union dues $$$ In an IRA acct … Cat do you pay taxes.. look at Greece.. hell look at California !!!

SBinF

June 13th, 2012
9:58 am

Destin are you serious?

Obama expanded the map so much that Romney will have a difficult time overcoming it. It will likely be a close count in the popular vote, but my money’s still on Obama to take it. We’re getting this narrative now to keep folks interested until November.

Centrist

June 13th, 2012
9:59 am

Of the 44 US Presidents, only 15 sitting presidents were re-elected, ten incumbent presidents lost their bid for re-election, and five additional sitting presidents failed to win their party’s nomination for a second term. Of the 15 sitting presidents who won a second term, all 15 won by a larger margin than their first election.

During the past 80 years, only four presidents failed in their re-election bid. All four (Hoover, Ford, Carter, and H. Bush) presided over struggling economies. Consequently, the ability of a president to become re-elected appears to have little to do with who his opponent is, and everything to do with how satisfied voters are with the job being done. Obama realistically hopes to win by a smaller popular vote and slimmer electoral college margin, as several states are polling they will be flipped.

Still too early to predict either way. Predictions may hold weight after Labor Day.

the cat

June 13th, 2012
10:02 am

i voter-sugar-once you start calling people names we all know you have lost the plot.

Married for Life

June 13th, 2012
10:05 am

Fickle voters. They may have pinned their hopes on Obama’s ideals but when it gets down to it, even idealists get sucked into the idea that leaders should look and act like cowboys—ride ‘em and rope ‘em. The key to real leadership, though, is that you never see it happening; real leadership is about creating an environment where all can grow. Look for leaders who are creating that environment–those are the people to vote for.

Mark

June 13th, 2012
10:07 am

OBAMA 2012!!!

TBone

June 13th, 2012
10:24 am

The problem here is the way libs like to group people in nice little categories and draw broad references from these polls. Obviously there was something askew with the polls in Wisconsin last week and validity depends on truthful responses from your target groups. The only poll that matters will be unveiled after the November elections. If the total and utter lack of Justice Department doesn’t provide the means for the election to be stolen, the US will have an experienced adult in the White House and a new batch in Congress and it won’t be the same cast of characters.

Jeff

June 13th, 2012
10:43 am

TBone: So you expect Gary Johnson to win? He’s the only experienced adult running.

Independent voter

June 13th, 2012
10:46 am

in order to attract quality teachers ( and all public workers ) we need to be able to evaluate them just like in private business.. pay the better ones MORE and eliminate a few under performers… competetion improves performance every where !!! forget union dues period !!

gw

June 13th, 2012
10:48 am

“Rarely is the question asked, is our children learning?”

TBone

June 13th, 2012
11:05 am

@ Jeff … If you want to vote for Mr. Johnson, go right ahead. I hear Roseanne Barr is also running. My only concern with Libertarians is a lack of moral underpinning. Makes me long for Frank Zappa.

Jeff

June 13th, 2012
11:12 am

TBone: Government has no right to legislate morality….

Don't Tread

June 13th, 2012
11:14 am

0bama’s leaking white voters??? Say it isn’t so!

How does the saying go…”Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”?

Maybe some people have been awakened and found out what this man is really up to. Let’s hope they stay awake.

Edward

June 13th, 2012
11:14 am

So, does Romney plan to take over the government, load it up with even more debt, sell off the profitable parts, then dump it and run off with a nice tidy sum of money while the rest of us are left to clean up the mess? You know, like he did with Bain Capital?

TBone

June 13th, 2012
11:20 am

@ Jeff … and yet they do it all of the time or have you not been paying attention. A law written devoid of morality is vacuous at best and dangerous at worst. All legislation attempts to correct the selfish and depraved condition we find ourselves.

MrsH

June 13th, 2012
11:22 am

That’s very racist of them if he is. They obviously don’t agree with him only
because he is black.(sarc)

kewl

June 13th, 2012
11:23 am

romney’s leaking robot oil.

Marlboro Man

June 13th, 2012
11:25 am

Romney is just not a viable alturnative, that’s the republican’s problem. He is out there in richy rich land.

Shar

June 13th, 2012
11:35 am

Any poll done now is useful only as a fundraising tool. As always, a significant proportion of undecided voters will make up their minds in late October, barring a ’surprise” that definitively shifts the electorate before then. Publicizing these early polls only serves as free marketing for both parties.

Jeff

June 13th, 2012
11:48 am

TBone: You seem to think “selfish” is a bad word. I do not. I *earned* what I have, and it is MINE, not yours. “Depraved”, again… government has no right to legislate morality. The ONLY purpose of government is to PROTECT – not “grant” – rights. Yet both Obama and Romney continually seek to DESTROY/ INFRINGE rights.

Tom B.

June 13th, 2012
11:59 am

the cat
June 13th, 2012
9:45 am

“i voter-what do your teacher and firefighter friends think about Romney’s pledge to fire them all? They okay with that?”

Spread misinformation much? “..fire them all” ? Wow, let’s not allow you to (re)write the history books!

GaBlue

June 13th, 2012
12:02 pm

Tom Price is the poster boy of House Republican ambitions. See, there’s two kinds of doctors: 1) those who swear the Hippocratic Oath, and 2) those who become Republican politicians, and swear the Hypocritic Oath, replacing everything they promised in the Hippocratic Oath.

Poster Boy has BIG ambitions, and a super-secret close personal relationship with the Brothers Koch. Big.

Rafe Hollister

June 13th, 2012
12:12 pm

Good news on the polling numbers. Check out the latest NC poll done by PPP, showing black support dropping off dramatically for our dear leader and Romney pulling ahead.

I love those Obama folks who find solace in Karl Rove’s outdated electoral map. He has SC and NC as swing states. Yeah, I’m sure, the land of Jim Demint, Strom Thurmond, Nikki Haley, and Lindsay Graham are undecided. I think maybe Karl maybe trying to get you guys a little over confident.

Marlboro Man

June 13th, 2012
12:28 pm

Most in the country don’t think like folks in GA.

Auntie Christ

June 13th, 2012
12:28 pm

business and community leaders across the state are meeting in Albany today “to plot defensive strategies for fending off action by Washington to cut or close the state’s military installations.”

You mean business and community leaders are going to fight to keep these “government jobs?” Where’s the outrage from all the anti public sector jobs folks, who are sooooo concerned that we have too many teachers, too many fire fighters, too many sanitation workers, et al who are draining our precious treasure through the munificent benefits of early retirement, 30 days a year vacation, health care and other expensive perks.

But I guess we can’t afford to cut the 40% of every tax $$ we pay going to the pentagon. After all, if romney is elected, we will be invading Syria, Iran, and maybe even N Korea, so we’ll just have to make do with bake sales to fund education budgets, fire fighting budgets, and feeding needy school children. We need to keep soldiers in Germany, Italy and Okinawa to because that is the only way to be protected from shoe bombers, underwear bombers and dirty bombs in knapsacks.

Go ask the Russians how well it worked out for them, paying for a bloated military and neglecting its citizens. Ask a citizen of N Korea how its working out for them. That is the direction we are heading, and the right wingers are too stupid to see it..

Carole

June 13th, 2012
12:55 pm

I believer that the Obama campaign should look at these numbers and make sure they are dotting I’s and crossing T’s, but this early in the game it doesn’t mean a whole lot. Wait until there are debates and you get to hear each person lay out their own ideas. Polls done after the conventions will really have more meaning.

Kris

June 13th, 2012
1:03 pm

“Mitt Romney wants to cut back on the number of teachers, firefighters and police officers around the country.
In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday at a campaign rally in Iowa on Friday in which he appeared to suggest the country could do without more public sector jobs.”

Wonder if that includes politicians (GOP) and governors?.

OBAMA 2012!!!!

TBone

June 13th, 2012
1:58 pm

Jeff… I don’t recall stating that I had any desire to covet what is “YOURS”. But I give all the glory to what I have been blessed with to a power much greater than myself. I am merely a steward of HIS gifts to me and my family. That my friend is what I refer to as moral underpinning. You go on believing that YOU are in charge while I will go mow the lawn HE has blessed me with. What exactly has Mitt done to you to infringe upon your freedoms? Thanks for the give and take; I gotta go sweat for awhile.

td

June 13th, 2012
2:08 pm

More good news for the people that want Obama out of office.

“The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 47% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.”

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

Jeff

June 13th, 2012
2:22 pm

td: Yeah, Scott Rasmussen isn’t a big fan of using Gary Johnson’s name – he’s afraid Romney will tank when a Governor who actually *did what he said he would do and stands by it* is in the poll.

Kris T.

June 13th, 2012
2:24 pm

Stand by……Just saw this in Atlanta’s best news source…(AJC)…might besomething intelligent from the newt.

Elections are “rigged” for the rich, according to former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Gingrich, talking to the Rev. Al Sharpton on the minister’s MSNBC television show Tuesday, said campaign finance rules should be changed to allow any American to donate any amount of after-tax personal income they want to give a candidate as long as the donation is reported “every night on the Internet

OBAMA 2012!!!!

td

June 13th, 2012
2:28 pm

Jeff

June 13th, 2012
2:22 pm

I am a libertarian at heart both fiscally and on social issues but my friend the philosophy can not work in this country. The American people are not going to allow people to suffer the consequences for the actions they take. The American public is not going to allow children to starve in the streets because their parents are to sorry to work. They are not going to let people die in the waiting room because they chose not to buy insurance.

If you are not going to allow people to totally fail when they make the wrong choices then the philosophy of total freedom will not work.

td

June 13th, 2012
2:29 pm

Kris T.

June 13th, 2012
2:24 pm

I have been saying the same thing for years. I am glad Newt is finally listening to me.

Independent voter

June 13th, 2012
2:43 pm

head line news: “only 3 in 10 teens have summer jobs ” global opinion of Obama way down…. “Obama trolls 3 Philly fund raisors ” Obama skips Green Summmit after Huge $$$$$ to Solundra “

honested

June 13th, 2012
2:50 pm

Something is wrong with the algorithms Gallup has been using for the last year or so.

I would almost pay 25K NOT to have to listen to gingrhoid.

honested

June 13th, 2012
2:52 pm

td,

For once you might be on to something.
How many rich people will stand back and let Darwin take it’s course when their kids take up the pipe?

CobbGOPer

June 13th, 2012
2:53 pm

“Barack Obama Leaking White Voters”

He should see a doctor about that…

honested

June 13th, 2012
2:54 pm

td,

For your breathless poll results, add in the ‘rasmussen factor’ (plus 5 to the Democrat, -5 from the republican) and then it gets close to the legitimate polls.

Rafe Hollister

June 13th, 2012
3:02 pm

honested

Google poll accuracy in 2008, there were only two that had the numbers right and one of the two was
……………………………………………………

RASMUSSEN

So, keep assuaging your fears with untruths. Polls don’t mean much at this point, but when they do, check Rasmussen if you want to know how things will come out.

Bernie

June 13th, 2012
3:03 pm

Despite all of the leaks presently, You can not honestly convince anyone that one Mitt ” Business Man – Flip Flopper” Romney is truly much better. Besides with all of the Republican Parties attacks on Women, Gays and other minority groups and relevant social issues the American people will realize that despite all of the problems with are faced with President Obama is far better to any alternative that has been presented to date. and that Sir is a verifiable FACT!

honested

June 13th, 2012
3:07 pm

rafe,

razmunchken only got close in 2008 towards the end,……..when they accepted the facts and showed President Obama leading!

Bernie

June 13th, 2012
3:13 pm

There are many more White Female voters who are quietly snickering at such absurdity. Especially when they are told by the Republican Party to put two aspirin between their legs and close their eyes, while they pass laws to force their physicians to perform invasive ultrasounds and telling their employers they longer have to cover birth control while watching many ads during the dinner hour telling Men that their is a cure for Penile Erectile Dysfunction and is covered by most insurance plans. Surely Jim, even you cannot be that dumb to truly believe such data.
The White female vote will surely surprise all of us…they are not willing to return to the 1950’s in the year 2012 for anyone based on skin color as some would so desperately hope.

GaBlue

June 13th, 2012
3:18 pm

Bernie,

Thanks, and… Shhhhhhh! It’s more fun if it’s a surprise.

ld

June 13th, 2012
3:22 pm

Kris T

Newt wants no limitations on donations and for anyone to be able to donate to any candidate.

If he really does not want money to be the only factor deciding an election, then there should be a maximum of $5,000/yr/ or less /candidate donation AND

ONLY those that are registered to vote and can vote in the election in which they are supporting a candidate be able to donate to that candidate

– or, at the very least, that, except for president and VP, you can only dontate to candidates who will be representing your state.

Don't Tread

June 13th, 2012
3:57 pm

Maybe that title should have been “Barack Obama leaking ON white voters”…