Your morning jolt: Nathan Deal steps up on transportation sales tax

On Monday, Gov. Nathan Deal chose Savannah as a venue for one of his strongest endorsements yet of a penny sales tax to boost transportation spending. From Larry Peterson and the Savannah Morning News:

Deal acknowledged that people don’t like higher taxes.

“The question,” he added, “is what is the alternative to keep your area growing and progressive?”

…He said funds from the measure would help move goods more efficiently in and out of the port of Savannah.

Deal said the increase, which would boost sales taxes in Chatham County to 8 percent, is needed because other revenues haven’t kept pace with growth.

***
On a similar note, Lori Geary of Channel 2 Action News draws a line between July 31 transportation vote and the burgeoning race between Senate Majority Leader Chip Rogers of Woodstock and Republican challenger Brandon Beach:

***
Then we have the case of Cobb County Commission Chairman Tim Lee, who took time from his re-election campaign last week to refer to critics of light rail as “spoiled brats.” From Geoff Folsom and the Marietta Daily Journal:

In a Monday email to the Journal, Lee attempted to retract his remarks.

“Let me apologize for calling anyone a spoiled brat,” he wrote. “Sometimes my passion for an issue gets ahead of me and I certainly wish I had chosen a better description.”

***
The AJC’s Politifact Georgia today takes a look at an anti-transportation tax group’s contention that light rail in Cobb County would double the commute time for automobiles on I-75.

***
The campaigns of Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama have moved on to a discussion of Bain Capital, but last week’s gay marriage discussion continues. From New York Times, on a new poll:

Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed by The New York Times and CBS News since the announcement said they thought that Mr. Obama had made it “mostly for political reasons,” while 24 percent said it was “mostly because he thinks it is right.” Independents were more likely to attribute it to politics, with nearly half of Democrats agreeing.

The results reinforce the concerns of White House aides and Democratic strategists who worried that the sequence of events leading up to the announcement last week made it look calculated rather than principled.

***
In a Monday report, Paul Crowley of 11Alive allows GOP strategist Ralph Reed to theorize on the problem that President Barack Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage has posed for Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed.

***
For the last two years, Jessica Colotl, the former Kennesaw State University student, has been the Georgia face of young people caught in the illegal immigration trap – brought here by their undocumented parents.

We may about to get a new contender for public sympathy: A Thursday rally will be held at Pebblebrook High School for Jesus Cruz, a recent graduate of that Cobb County high school who has been in deportation proceedings since last August. Cruz has been in the country since he was 11, brought here by his mother.

***
Jimmy Carter will be off to Egypt next week to watch the voting. From the Associated Press:

The Atlanta-based Carter Center has been accredited by Egyptian authorities to send international election witnesses for that country’s presidential election.

The Carter Center says it received approval from Egypt’s Supreme Presidential Election Commission to deploy 22 witnesses from 14 countries. The presidential election is set for May 23 and 24.

They will be joined by a larger delegation of 80 witnesses from over 35 nations who will travel to Egypt several days before the election, led by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider

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121 comments Add your comment

the original and still the best John Galt

May 15th, 2012
9:40 am

Nathan Deal, as a typical Demopublican, is always against raising taxes except when he is for raising taxes.

CobbGOPer

May 15th, 2012
9:48 am

Well, that seals it. If Deal is for T-SPLOST, then I’m against it. It doesn’t hurt that I’ll be turning out to vote against Helen Gorham and Tim Lee as well (though I don’t think Gorham has drawn a challenger – primary or otherwise – despite the fact she voted with Lee to raise taxes in Cobb). Oh, and vote in favor of Sunday sales. Again.

Centrist

May 15th, 2012
9:55 am

Deal is hurting his credibility with a large part of his Republican base by supporting this massive new sales tax increase of between 15% – 20% depending on the County. It is in addition to the existing MARTA, education SPLOST, and parks SPLOST. The AJC must have mixed emotions – always favors new taxes, but enjoys seeing Deal defending it.

It is also true that this T-SPLOST is a major issue for the District 21 Senate race mostly in Cherokee County (also charter schools), and Cobb County Commission Lee is under fire for supporting it and rail. My guess is Rogers is safe and Lee is in trouble.

jimbob

May 15th, 2012
9:55 am

I wonder if Deal wold have the same idea about education. “The question,” he added, “is what is the alternative to keep your area growing and progressive?”

td

May 15th, 2012
9:56 am

A poll skewed to Democrats say that Obama coming out is not good and now give Romney a 3 point lead. Not a prediction because it is still way to early but everyday that goes by it is not looking good for an Obama re election.

td

May 15th, 2012
9:57 am

Centrist

May 15th, 2012
9:55 am

I think your guess is a good one.

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
10:00 am

“The question,” he added, “is what is the alternative to keep your area growing and progressive?”

The alternative, Governor, is for the legislature to do their job and manage the state’s infrastructure the way that will help keep this area “growing and progressive”. But I guess it’s easier for the legislature to give us a choice between half a loaf and the threat of no loaf.

td

May 15th, 2012
10:00 am

jimbob

May 15th, 2012
9:55 am

Our education system is working fine in any and all households where the parents are involved in the education process with their children. This is true across all political, racial and gender lines. The problem with education is not the school systems but the parents.

Allie F.

May 15th, 2012
10:01 am

This entire proposition is a joke; another scam wrapped in lies and fraud. Georgians are being taxed to death by all of these progressive measures that never seem to come to fruition. How about taking the money for the bogus trolly to no-where? How about fixing the millions of pot holes in Atlanta streets? How about streamlining the state’s over-employment and egregious benefits package. This program is just another example of waste and abuse on the part of our government.

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
10:02 am

Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed by The New York Times and CBS News since the announcement said they thought that Mr. Obama had made it “mostly for political reasons,” while 24 percent said it was “mostly because he thinks it is right.” Independents were more likely to attribute it to politics, with nearly half of Democrats agreeing.

Because barely sticking up for 5% of the population that is being demonized by 30% of the population is “good politics” :roll:

Bob Loblaw

May 15th, 2012
10:03 am

Ralph Reed isn’t qualified to discuss the political issues that the gay marriage issue will pose to the Mayor. Wrong guy, wrong electorate to evalualte, wrong on most every other political evaluation. Why does this guy get press, here? For his politics? For his experience? For his personal expertise at campaigning? Leave this joker alone so he can continue his Lazarus project among the sheep of the right wing.

Just Nasty & Mean

May 15th, 2012
10:03 am

Brandon Beach is the quintessential DOT and Chamber of Commerce insider. The absolute LAST thing we need is another “one of the boys” directing the state. Beach tilts to big business and government control EVERY SINGLE TIME.

Beach says he is a conservative: He is a henchman for Big Business and massive government.
PLEASE…Give me a FREAKING Break!

td

May 15th, 2012
10:06 am

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
10:02 am

“Because barely sticking up for 5% of the population that is being demonized by 30% of the population is “good politics””

Yes it is when that “5%” represents 1 out of every 6 of your big money bundlers. Follow the money..

Bob Loblaw

May 15th, 2012
10:06 am

Sen. Rogers sure does look scared.

Mr. KnowitAll

May 15th, 2012
10:07 am

I have YET to hear Brandon Beach and the pro-TSPLOST folks explain why Fulton & DeKalb should pay for the backbone of the whole initiative (MARTA) and the rest of the region skates by?

Well Beach…answer the question: Why should Fulton/DeKalb pay and the rest not? Hello??
…chirp….chirp…..

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
10:12 am

Hey Chip….since God gave children to parents, not school boards, then why doesn’t God pay for their education? If God foots the bill He can send those kids wherever He wants and nobody will object.

Becky

May 15th, 2012
10:24 am

Why isn’t Ralph Reed in jail?

Look before I leap...

May 15th, 2012
10:26 am

I wonder if Nathan Deal is getting daily nasty-grams from Grover and the ATR?

Don’t we already take in about $900M in gas taxes?
Where is THAT money going?

Kandie

May 15th, 2012
10:26 am

Deal is showing leadership, whether you agree with him or not, unlike our last governor who was a bad joke and a buffoon.
Rogers is very anti-public education and a crook to boot. Maybe the good people of Cherokee County who have traditionally had good public schools will step up to the plate and send Rogers packing. That would be one of the best things that could happen to improve the GA legislature and public education in this state.

Look before I leap...

May 15th, 2012
10:28 am

“Yes it is when that “5%” represents 1 out of every 6 of your big money bundlers. Follow the money.”

Citation please?
I think you overestimate the financial condition of gay people.

Laurie

May 15th, 2012
10:29 am

8% sales tax, plus income tax, plus fees that are tacked on here and there to do things like register your car, buy new tires, etc… These guys don’t need any more money to waste, they are doing an excellent job with what they get already. The one added benefit to this summer’s election is that not only do I get to vote NO for the TSPLOST, I get to vote NO for Chip. July and August are going to be awesome!

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
10:32 am

Yes it is when that “5%” represents 1 out of every 6 of your big money bundlers. Follow the money..

td, like Look, I call BS. Put up the citation.

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
10:37 am

“A poll skewed to Democrats say that Obama coming out is not good and now give Romney a 3 point lead.”

A poll skewed to Republicans (Rasmussen) says that since Obama announced his support for gay marriage Romney’s lead has shrunk from 8% to 2%. Gallup had Romney leading when Obama announced his support, Romney now trails in that poll.

Also the CBS poll that td cited is not even figured into the Real Clear Politics (right leaning) average because it is bogus.

jconservative

May 15th, 2012
10:56 am

I will be happy to vote for a tax increase the year after the size of government has been cut so that no tax increase is necessary.

Road Scholar

May 15th, 2012
10:59 am

“…events leading up to the announcement last week made it look calculated rather than principled.”

Looks like repubs can’t calculate or have principles!

Look:”Don’t we already take in about $900M in gas taxes?
Where is THAT money going?”

I suggest you look at GDOT’s budget. They get about $2B ($1B Fed and $1B state) and $400-500,000 goes to debt service on transportation bonds sold under “Go Fish” Perdue for the next 15 years. Georgia is the largest state east of the Mississippi and not only has capacity issues on the roads, but also maintenance issues.The Interstates and main state routes were built in the 1950’s- 1970’s; Roads are built for a 20 year design life and bridges are built for a 50 year design life.GDOT used to spend 10% of their budget on maintenance; now they spend just 2 %/yr. They are loosing ground as the roads and bridges need major maintenance.

That being said, our new infrastructure needs are not able to get funded. People like Centrist and td can stay at home all day and not use the roads..as evidenced by their constant blogging and whining. Others must make a living and purchase goods that get to the stores or your doorstep via truck. The state needs to invest more on infrastructure…and thus create jobs since over 90% of what GDOT does is by private contractor.

td

May 15th, 2012
11:10 am

Look before I leap…

May 15th, 2012
10:28 am

http://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor/2012/05/14/inside-obamas-lgbt-donor-machine-how-the-president-will-make-millions-from-gay-marriage-push/

“The Washington Post recently combed through the list of top Obama bundlers — that is, those bringing in more than $500,000 — and identified as many as 1 in 6 as openly gay.”

Besides Bean, Obama’s gay bundlers include, per the Center’s excellent OpenSecrets.com site:

Charles Myers, of Evercore Partners, who has bundled at least $500,000
Eugene Sepulveda, of Austin, Texas, who bundled at least $500,000
Andrew Tobias, a writer and treasurer of the DNC, who bundled at least $500,000
Dana Perlman and Barry Karas, of Los Angeles, who bundled at least $500,000
Wally Brewster and Bob Satawake, of Chicago, who bundled at least $100,000
Kathy Levinson, former president and CEO of E-trade, who bundled at least $200,000
Laura Ricketts, of Ecotravel LLC in Chicago, who bundled at least $100,000
Jeff Soref, of New York, who bundled at least $100,000
Fred Eychaner, of Chicago, who bundled at least $50,000
Paul Horning, of Atlanta, who bundled at least $50,000
Kevin Jennings, the former Department of Education official, who bundled at least 50,000
Tim Gill and Scott Miller, of Denver, Colo., who bundled at least $500,000

Marlboro Man

May 15th, 2012
11:15 am

I guess you folks thinks roads are free and will fix themselves.

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
11:15 am

I will be happy to vote for a tax increase the year after the size of government has been cut so that no tax increase is necessary.

OK jconservative, time to tell us exactly what you’d cut. “Government waste” is not a category either.

I keep hearing all these people saying they want to cut government. Meanwhile they want roads (which the aptly-named Road Scholar has pointed out are already underfunded) police, sewers, and all the other goodies of government. People constantly underestimate how much it costs for these services. They think if they cut the Department of Left-Handed Voters Assistance their taxes will magically drop. Newsflash: all those little annoying things you fixate upon are probably less than 5% of the total budget. Despite the talk radio and breitbart.com screams, that’s not where your money goes.

If you think you’re being overcharged for those services you want, speak to your elected officials. Since they are overwhelmingly elected if they can use the word “conservative” more often their opponent, jconservative may not like looking in his mirror.

td

May 15th, 2012
11:15 am

Look and Byte,

“Some liberal gay donors had threatened to withhold contributions over Obama’s stance on gay marriage as well as his administration’s decision to shelve an executive order banning sexual-identity discrimination by federal contractors.”

td

May 15th, 2012
11:16 am

Look and Byte,

“Some liberal gay donors had threatened to withhold contributions over Obama’s stance on gay marriage as well as his administration’s decision to shelve an executive order banning sexual-identity discrimination by federal contractors.”

Forgot to credit sorry.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/same-sex-marriage-debate-many-of-obamas-top-fundraisers-are-gay/2012/05/09/gIQASJYSDU_story.html

td

May 15th, 2012
11:18 am

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
10:32 am

Yes it is when that “5%” represents 1 out of every 6 of your big money bundlers. Follow the money..

td, like Look, I call BS. Put up the citation.

Are you going to come back and say my statement was correct now?

KID

May 15th, 2012
11:29 am

Obama all the way back in 2012!

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
11:34 am

Are you going to come back and say my statement was correct now?

I think we should all acknowledge your link, and also that Jim’s rules have produced an apparent miracle…td posts a real link to a real website verifying his claim about the ratio of gay bundlers! Hooray!

Whether or not that supports your main conclusion, td, is a matter of conjecture. It’s not like all those gay folks were about to jump ship and go fundraising for Romney. They’ve been raising a lot of money up to this point. If this ups the ante, so to speak, it will also provide a fundraising boost on Romney’s side.

I think it’s political but given the waffling Obama did, it didn’t seem like a masterfully timed move. And given how the anti-gay crowd can be manipulated quite easily by Republicans for practically nothing, I don’t think it was a smart move.

td

May 15th, 2012
11:36 am

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
11:15 am

I will be happy to vote for a tax increase the year after the size of government has been cut so that no tax increase is necessary.

OK jconservative, time to tell us exactly what you’d cut. “Government waste” is not a category either.

Sorry jconsevative for jumping in but I would like to answer the question.

Freeze all spending at its current level in every department for 5 years and then cut 1% per year for each of the next five years. The budget will be balanced and no one can tell me that there is not 5% of waste, fraud and abuse that could be cut out of every ones budget during a 5 year period This is called the “Penny plan” and has already be introduced by Connie Mack but Harry Reid will not even let it come to a vote.

http://www.newsmax.com/LannyDavis/Mack-Penny-Plan-budget/2011/08/03/id/406026

Rev Jones

May 15th, 2012
11:38 am

We dropped the ball giving women a vote.

Capitol Hack

May 15th, 2012
11:49 am

You whiners always complaining about taxes need to move to another state. Living in Georgia, you have one of the lowest tax burdens in America. And it shows. Our roads are trashy and overgrown, our traffic is terrible, education could be better, and our government services are among the leanest anywhere. And still….you complain? Please move to another state, so you can really have something to complain about!

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
11:57 am

Are you going to come back and say my statement was correct now?

I’ll grant you that the statement you made is correct, but the sentiment you (and the article) expressed — that somehow 5% of the electorate and 15% of a subset of his bundlers — which do not even comprise close to a majority of his overall total money raised — is more important than the 30% who are strongly opposed… or that he even needed to do it to keep the money rolling in (the majority of his money is coming from small contributions). In fact, when compared to the 30% who dispise it, the bigger money might have been found going in the other direction.

So you fell for WaPo’s logic. I don’t accept it until we see the other side of the argument of how many high-$$ bunders will drop out because of this newly defined position.

To say “it was just politically calculated”, you have to provide evidence that the money he would receive from this position is going to be higher than the money he would have received from taking the other position or just doing nothing different. I don’t see the dots connecting.

findog

May 15th, 2012
11:57 am

Mr. Lee, did you mean something like, “Incipit twits”?

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:00 pm

Freeze all spending at its current level in every department for 5 years and then cut 1% per year for each of the next five years. The budget will be balanced and no one can tell me that there is not 5% of waste, fraud and abuse that could be cut out of every ones budget during a 5 year period

Won’t even come close at current revenue levels, especially since Social Security and Medicare benefits are not part of any “department” statutorially controlled by the budget.

Aaron Burr V Mexico

May 15th, 2012
12:02 pm

(Still munching popcorn)

td

May 15th, 2012
12:04 pm

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
11:57 am

It is impossible to prove your assumptions for what might have happened or what will happen on the other side of the argument based on what did or did not happen. This is why the WP is correct in stating it was a political calculation that Obama thought was in the best interest of his campaign or in other words a calculation made to rake in the maximum amount of dollars to his campaign.

td

May 15th, 2012
12:08 pm

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:00 pm

Did even read the article I posted? It was written by a liberal writer and he says it will work and Medicare and SS are included in the freezing and the reductions. SS could just not give any COLA’s for the next 5 years and meet the goals of the plan.

findog

May 15th, 2012
12:12 pm

Deal is showing leadership?
Said he’d lead the destruction of the 400 toll booths
Why would anyone agree to give the GOP a penny for transportation on every purchase except for fuel?
Why does the GOP give profitable companies a tax break on fuel?
Why did they put a 10-year sunset on that tax; just like President Bush’s tax cuts they will live forever…

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:16 pm

Raising taxes to modify the transportation system is inevitable as whatever improvements will not get built for free.
If road building will be the preferred choice for the auslanders, so be it. Use (raise) motor fuel taxes, as that user fee is in place to provide for motor vehicle transportation infrastructure.

If you want to move people back and forth from the same point A to the same point B at the same time, 5 days a week, then MASS TRANSIT is the most sensible method and requires financing other than motor fuel taxes, but that isn’t part of the ‘Grand Plan as Pronounced from On High by our Illustrious Small Town Mayors’.
You say the OTP bunch doesn’t want mass transit? Then increase the motor fuel tax by about 300% to grow the roads necessary for those who do not want the most sensible or most efficient but instead wish for the most EXPENSIVE.

Me, I don’t care. I live ITP, my business is ITP, my customers are ITP. My ‘commute’ is a mile.
Why should I be burdened for YOUR short-sightedness?

clyde

May 15th, 2012
12:18 pm

Deportation hearings should not take months but only minutes.Canada can do it in less than 3 minutes.

We are not really in a position any longer to be the watchdog for other country’s elections.We need watching ourselves.

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:19 pm

It is impossible to prove your assumptions for what might have happened or what will happen on the other side of the argument based on what did or did not happen. This is why the WP is correct in stating it was a political calculation that Obama thought was in the best interest of his campaign or in other words a calculation made to rake in the maximum amount of dollars to his campaign.

Of course it can’t be proven. But the people running the campaign have a HUGE detailed database of all their top donors and know which way they’d fall on this. The question is: if this were a political calculation that was well-considered, why was it so badly handled? Doesn’t make sense to have a political calculation bungled by a team very adept at getting the details right.

But you go ahead and accept the liberal media biased WaPo’s conclusion. LOL! :lol: Oh, sweet irony.

Can't blame the Democrats for this one

May 15th, 2012
12:20 pm

All Republicans all the time has brought our current disaster. Democrats have not mattered for 10 years.

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:22 pm

td,

Reading connie mack’s drivel on newsmax is about as relevant as reading any book about the UNfair Tax. Luckily, cleverly designed shell games are not massive tax law/budgeting changes are made.

If you want to reference relevant thinking on budgetary considerations, I’m sure it would be properly discussed. Bringing up wrong-wing pipe dreams will be summarily discounted, as it should be.

td

May 15th, 2012
12:24 pm

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:19 pm

Even the Wp and NY Times gets 1 in 50 articles correct. I

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:25 pm

Did even read the article I posted?

Actually I didn’t until just now… worried about newsmax putting a virus on my computer. :)

He glosses over something in the article, though: how does revenue go up from 14.9% to 18% of GDP in 7 years at current tax rates? It won’t happen “naturally” unless some tax cuts expire as they are designed to. Which also comes back to the exact statement I said: at current revenue levels… you can’t close the hole with this plan. Just won’t happen, the hole is nearly 40% of the budget.

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:26 pm

Reading connie mack’s drivel on newsmax is about as relevant as reading any book about the UNfair Tax.

It was Lanny Davis — formerly in the Clinton WH — in an editorial talking about Mack’s plan.

td

May 15th, 2012
12:27 pm

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:22 pm

So using the same methodology as most states have to use to balance their budgets( because they are Constitutionally required to do so) is “wrong-wing pipe dreams”. Now sounds like they are having unrealistic dreams?

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:29 pm

td,

Ok enlighten me.
What states have implemented connie mack’s pipe dream?

td

May 15th, 2012
12:30 pm

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:26 pm

Reading connie mack’s drivel on newsmax is about as relevant as reading any book about the UNfair Tax.

It was Lanny Davis — formerly in the Clinton WH — in an editorial talking about Mack’s plan.

Honested thinks Lanny is a right wing nut.

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:32 pm

ByteMe

In all honesty, I’m not really interested in any opinion piece on any websites I tend to avoid at all cost because of the time limitations and the fact that it generally derails the thread farther into irrelevancy.

Now back to traffic.

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:33 pm

td,

I no longer believe in ‘right wing nuts’.
Politics has at least two sides, Left and wrong.

td

May 15th, 2012
12:34 pm

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:29 pm

What do think Georgia has had to do for the past 5 years? Cut spending and not raise taxes. They went from Revenues of about $23 billion to $17.5 billion within three years and had to cut spending across the board.

20/20

May 15th, 2012
12:36 pm

Becky, 10:24, “Why isn’t Ralph Reed in jail?” Don’t know but my guess it’s the same reason you aren’t. Makes good sense, doesn’t it?

MrLiberty

May 15th, 2012
12:37 pm

Obviously lots of Deal’s friends stand to make a ton of money off the worthless projects. As many have noted, this is the reason why folks are fed up with the two party monopoly that has destroyed our country – there is basically no difference whatsoever between the two of them.

20/20

May 15th, 2012
12:41 pm

Laurie @10:29a – From your remarks it looks as if California, New York or Illinois would be a better fit for your ideals of taxation. At least Georgia HAS TO (by law) balance it books every year. If not so we would be right up there with those “progressive states.”

td

May 15th, 2012
12:42 pm

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
12:25 pm

“He glosses over something in the article, though: how does revenue go up from 14.9% to 18% of GDP in 7 years at current tax rates?”

Revenues will improve as a % of GDP in the country due to more people going back to work and contributing and more corporations selling more products to these new workers and paying taxes on this increased supply of product of services. It has happened in Georgia already. Revenues went from about $23 billion and fell to $17.5 billion during the worst year of the recession. Georgia has not raised any taxes and yet Revenues are now back up to about $20 billion. If this same % rate increase happened all across the nation then you get to the 18% of GDP without raising taxes. When you get a surplus in revenue due to the freeze and actual decrease in spending the government can then start paying off actual debt and not just interest on the debt.

Marlboro Man

May 15th, 2012
12:45 pm

Ralph Reed reminds me of a meely mouth worm. Reckon he is ?

Look before I leap...

May 15th, 2012
12:45 pm

@td

A couple of points for clarification:

It is OpenSecrets.Org (not dot com)
The amount of money raised by “known gays” is about 5% of the total bundled revenues.
That the number of “gay top bundlers” is 16% of the total who raised 500K or more is unclear.
The report lists almost 120 people who bundled $500K or more yet only identifies 5 as gay.

Even if that list ends up totaling 20 people, the dollar amount raised is in line with the estimated gay population of 5%. The only conclusion I could draw from that is that gay people are better at raising money.

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
12:50 pm

What do think Georgia has had to do for the past 5 years? Cut spending and not raise taxes.

And we have people driving in the breakdown lane of GA 400.

td, remember when I said “government waste” was not a category? I said that for a reason. Because when you start cutting the budget, one man’s waste is another man’s necessity. You said Mr. Mack’s plan included no COLA’s for Social Security for five years….that doesn’t even fly with the freakin’ Tea Party. Because “taxed enough already” means “I’M taxed enough already, that guy over there isn’t, now GIMME MY COLA AND CUT SOMETHING ELSE. I have no idea what, but as long as it’s not money coming my way, I don’t care. Oh, and let me identify a tiny item that upsets and befuddles me, like shrimp treadmills, and until you cut that don’t touch my multibilliondollar entitlement.”

Once again, “cut 5% from everybody” is not a plan. Until you can identify the cuts and get people to accept them, it’s a tantrum. Tantrums and vague mumbles will not do anything, except make you feel good and stake a fake claim that you know how to solve the problem. You don’t.

Vashtai

May 15th, 2012
12:51 pm

Most intelligent people (who aren’t “religious”) don’t have a problem with same sex marriage. I know many gay couples who have been together for decades, and they should have all the legal protections and rights heterosexual couples already enjoy. I’m always amazed that so-called “religious” groups like Focus on the Family, American Family Association and the National Organization for Marriage spend so much money reviling gay people. God looks down on us in shame at how we have misused His word.

td

May 15th, 2012
12:53 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
12:50 pm

“You said Mr. Mack’s plan included no COLA’s for Social Security for five years”

That was not in the article but was my opinion about how they would not even half to look for waste and still make the cuts.

Right-O

May 15th, 2012
12:54 pm

As one who in 31 years+ has driven 90% of the roads in this state, I can categorically say that “Road Scholar” is grossly misinformed and should get out on the rural and less-known roadways of this state. This is not to say they are pristine, totally 100% smooth and newly-paved, rather they are in excellent shape. It goes without saying that “the road less traveled” (to coin a phrase) is not doubt in better condition due less traffic, etc., but it is in excellent shape nonetheless.
Most newcomers and younger people don’t seem to realize that many roads in Georgia were built in areas where the politicians lived – both Democrat and, lately Republican.
I would ask that you drive around in middle and south Georgia, east to west, north to south and see what I’m talking about.
There are, however, some beautiful highways that exist for no other reason than money and political pull; that’s a fact.

honested

May 15th, 2012
12:57 pm

td,

So I guess your answer is that NO states have implemented the mack plan.

Centrist

May 15th, 2012
12:58 pm

findog posted “Why did they put a 10-year sunset on that tax; just like President Bush’s tax cuts they will live forever…”

They are now President Obama’s tax (rate) cuts. They did have an expiration, and Obama and a Democratic Congress extended them (for good reason). They are not revenue cuts – the economy and tax receipts would tank if they were allowed to expire. Listening to campaign rhetoric/promises that are only meant to fire up the base, as opposed to actual actions should be classified as a disease. Same could be said for Governor Deal and his support for the enormous T-SPLOST tax.

honested

May 15th, 2012
1:02 pm

Right-O,

So a conclusion to your accurate synopsis.
Now that we have built roads to nowhere traveled by a tiny fraction of the population, can we re-direct the motor fuel tax to the purpose for which it was intended?

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
1:06 pm

That was not in the article but was my opinion about how they would not even half to look for waste and still make the cuts.

Sorry, I only glanced at the article you posted, which was long on “rah-rah” and absolutely devoid of real specifics. I’m still not sure why you posted the link, it seemed more like an attaboy from a Democrat to a Republican and a plea for bipartisan solutions instead of screeching nooooooooo at every turn.

Nevertheless, your idea of cutting by eliminating COLA’s only works in your head. It’s easy to propose solutions that don’t have to be implemented. Kind of like solving our traffic problems with flying cars. Talk is cheap.

The Snark

May 15th, 2012
1:08 pm

@ jconservative: If the “size of government” gets any smaller in this state, we’re gonna look a lot like Somalia.

Centrist

May 15th, 2012
1:09 pm

Tennessee and Florida don’t have state income taxes or SPLOSTS for infrastructure – why?

This has got to frost jgalloway after his blog headline yesterday saying Romney has a gender gap with women (ignoring Obama’s gender gap with men and Romney’s recent lead in polls): the new CBS-New York Times poll shows that the GOP presidential candidate now leads among women, too.

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
1:11 pm

Revenues will improve as a % of GDP in the country due to more people going back to work and contributing and more corporations selling more products to these new workers and paying taxes on this increased supply of product of services.

Ah, the magic of trickle down… cut government spending, which causes people to get laid off, and somehow magically the economy produces more tax revenues. History is not on your side with that argument.

BTW, we’re in month 36 of the expansion. Expansions lasting 4 years without a contraction are rare. The market is up nearly 100% in that 36 months. Expect a 37-50% retracement of the gain. Want to see revenues fall? That’s coming again and there’s really nothing the government can do to make it better, but there are a lot of things it can do to make it worse.

findog

May 15th, 2012
1:15 pm

Centrist,
Please do try to follow the new rules.
The 2001 Tax Cuts are President Bush’s and were set to end in 10 years (true or false?)
These taxes the state GOP have proposed are for ten years; like the state DNC’s GA-400 toll, will they end – ever? Doubt it!

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
1:20 pm

Tennessee and Florida don’t have state income taxes or SPLOSTS for infrastructure – why?

Apples to oranges. Atlanta metro population is about the size of all of Tennessee. Florida has tourism galore, a larger population spread over more area, and higher taxes and higher fees on other things to compensate. Florida also has toll roads all over the place.

I recommend we put a toll on all major roads leading into Atlanta. Want to see the infrastructure get paid for? Make all the commuters pay for the privilege of living out in the middle of nowhere while the people who live in the city have to pay for the infrastructure those people use to get to work. No tolls to leave, just a toll to get into the city. Will probably improve traffic as well by creating pacing points (the toll booths).

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
1:23 pm

“the new CBS-New York Times poll shows that the GOP presidential candidate now leads among women, too.”

That poll is so bogus Real Clear politics will not even use it in their averages.

findog

May 15th, 2012
1:24 pm

Centrist,
Florida does not have income taxes; correct, I bet you wait to get south of the border to buy gas on your way to Daytona.
What are the level of their property taxes, sales taxes, and fees?
Their lottery proceeds were to supplement education but instead supplanted the funding.
There is no free lunch and until everyone agrees on that we will never fix our tax and government services problems.
But just remember to vote no on the TSPLOST. If it was really that important then why would the state GOP have taken four years to pass it and wait another year to have it come up for a vote? They were able to get the same sex marriage amendment onto the ballot in only nine months back in 2004.

Centrist

May 15th, 2012
1:28 pm

Bytme posted “Atlanta metro population is about the size of all of Tennessee.”

Really? Big state with 4 major cities: Memphis, Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville. And as you say, Florida has more population and area to cover – meaning even MORE infrastructure.

It is Georgia’s budget priorities which have pushed down infrastructure. Lots of governments do this and when times get tight, instead of reducing government waste/size/less important programs – they layoff police, fire, teachers, skip infrastructure maintenance and blame the taxpayers.

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
1:36 pm

Really? Big state with 4 major cities: Memphis, Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville

Total population of Tennessee is 6 million, we’re at 5.2 million just in Atlanta region. Only two cities with more than 200,000 people and that’s Memphis and Nashville, with about 600K each, but that doesn’t include the metro areas around them, one of which stretches into another state entirely (Memphis).

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
1:37 pm

the new CBS-New York Times poll shows that the GOP presidential candidate now leads among women, too.

You’re late to the party. I already looked that up, Obama went from 49% to 44% among women. Straight from the poll:

“The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.”

Sorry to destroy your cherished fantasy of Mr. Galloway crying over his keyboard with the reality…. that he can grasp what’s going on better than you can. It’s not some big liberal conspiracy of silence. He’s paid to read the footnotes and do the maths before he starts typing.

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
1:37 pm

It is Georgia’s budget priorities which have pushed down infrastructure.

Absolutely correct. And that’s why I’m against the current jury-rigged TSPLOST. If it’s important, they should do it right instead of putting a band-aid on it.

td

May 15th, 2012
1:40 pm

ByteMe

May 15th, 2012
1:11 pm

“Ah, the magic of trickle down… cut government spending, which causes people to get laid off, and somehow magically the economy produces more tax revenues. History is not on your side with that argument.”

What I explained is not “trickle down” it is basic economics 101. I did not say anything about taxes at all. I said the natural flow of the economic cycle states that more people work then they need more good and services and both these facts results in higher revenue from taxes being collected. Those are facts and can not really be disputed.

td

May 15th, 2012
1:47 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
1:37 pm

Obama is going to win the woman vote just as every other Democrat has done since Kennedy (beside Reagan in his second term). When you have African American woman vote in a 98% block for the Democrat and the rest of the voting blocks voting near 50/50 then there will be always be a gap. I think if you look at recent polling data then you will see that Romney is actually ahead in the polls with White women. This could explain the CBS poll numbers (they may have over represented white women in the poll.

The main point to take out of the poll is it had 4% more Democrats then Republicans polled and Romney had a 3 point lead.

td

May 15th, 2012
1:48 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
1:37 pm

BTW: Can you tell us all what the male gender gap is in favor of Romney is?

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
1:49 pm

“Really? Big state with 4 major cities: Memphis, Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville. And as you say, Florida has more population and area to cover – meaning even MORE infrastructure.”

That means absolutely nothing. Georgia siphons off 35% of the gas tax generated in metro-Atlanta and uses the money in different areas of the state. Also, the way Georgia divides its share of federal funds also short changes metro-Atlanta.

Why isn’t the north the north Fulton/Milton crowd crying bloody murder over this the way they do when the county does it to them? Shouldn’t they be screaming for the right to create their own state?

Georgia seems to have a big entitlement to metro-Atlanta gas tax revenue.

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
1:54 pm

BTW: Can you tell us all what the male gender gap is in favor of Romney is?

According to that poll, there is currently no male gender gap in favor of Romney.

You really don’t understand “margin of error” do you?

honested

May 15th, 2012
1:59 pm

We’re not even 24 hours into the ‘new rules’ and td has already spouted ‘Those are facts and cannot really be disputed’ already.
‘Drink’

Byte Me
As to toll roads leading into Atlanta, if we are going to continue to avoid building mass transit like the plague, I don’t really see another answer.
If people are so stupid as to move 40, 50, 60 miles away from a place they have to be every day, why on earth do I feel any obligation to share the burden to get them there?
For instance, if the toll on 400 had started at Holcomb Bridge (or even farther north) and been based on mileage, either we would have 16 lanes on 400 now or there would be MARTA to the Forsyth County line.
Instead, we selected a tiny fraction of the daily 400 travelers and imposed a toll them alone. Now they are whining as if it cost them 50 bucks a day.
Get a grip. Move to town, finance real transit or pay sufficient motor fuel tax.
This one isn’t the fault of intown, Liberal Democrats.

td

May 15th, 2012
2:07 pm

honested

May 15th, 2012
1:59 pm

And which rule did I break?

BTW: The solution is more teleworking and getting companies to move away from the high congestion areas to the more rural areas 50, 60 or even 100 miles away from Atlanta.

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
2:10 pm

“The main point to take out of the poll is it had 4% more Democrats then Republicans polled and Romney had a 3 point lead.”

td, so what? You do know there are not an equal amount of Democrats and Republicans don’t you? According to the last poll on political affiliation from Gallup (6-11,) 45% said they were affiliated with the Democrats, 39% Republicans, +6% for the Democrats.

td

May 15th, 2012
2:11 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
1:54 pm

So you feel the entire margin of error is in Obama’s favor and that he is really in the lead? Like I said the poll was skewed to favor the Democrats by 4% already so if you recalculate for the skewing then Romney would have a 7 point lead and outside the margin of error.

honested

May 15th, 2012
2:25 pm

td,

Why would anyone in their right mind want to live in this state and be 100 miles from Atlanta?

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
2:30 pm

Like I said the poll was skewed to favor the Democrats by 4% already

I would really love to hear where you got that idea, td. Seriously, I need a laugh.

Rabbit

May 15th, 2012
2:32 pm

“Beach tilts to big business and government control EVERY SINGLE TIME.”

This statement seems to imply that it separates the candidate from his oponent who is the treasurer of ALEC, the organization that with stealth and artifice, has infiltrated state legislatures everywhere to tilt laws toward business and corporate interests. Expect an analysis of Beach’s opponent’s supported legislation to make comparisons with ALEC sponsored bills.

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
2:35 pm

“Like I said the poll was skewed to favor the Democrats by 4% already so if you recalculate for the skewing then Romney would have a 7 point lead and outside the margin of error.”

That is not even close to being accurate. That was a call back poll, the reason Real Clear does not acknowledge that poll is because they didn’t get the same response. The second poll had more responses from Republicans than the first poll. It is bogus.

Here are updated party affiliation polls, all within the past 2 months.

CBS- 34% Dem vs30% Rep
Wall St- 30% Dem vs 24% Rep
IPSOS 29% Dem vs 22% Rep
ABC 34% Dem vs 23% Rep
Pew 34% Dem vs 24% Rep

td

May 15th, 2012
2:39 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
2:30 pm

You have to read the actual poll and not just the highlights pulled out by the media. Below is link to the actual poll. Go to page 9 to read the demographic breakdown of the poll and see for yourself how it is skewed.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/CBSNYTPoll_051412.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody

td

May 15th, 2012
2:42 pm

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
2:35 pm

Thank you for making my point. Every poll you listed is skewed. There are higher numbers of Democratic respondents then Republican. To do a fair statistical analysis of the data then you would really need to say that the margin of error should always go in favor of Romney.

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
2:47 pm

Go to page 9 to read the demographic breakdown of the poll and see for yourself how it is skewed.

I can read. There is no explanation on that page that would tell me why you think the poll is skewed.

Unless you are under the impression that if a poll has 55 male respondents and 45 female respondents, that would automatically skew the men’s responses upwards by either 5 or 10%.

Is that what you’re trying to say?

td

May 15th, 2012
2:59 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
2:47 pm

You may have to delete my comment Jim and I apologize ahead of time.

What in the h3ll do you call the fact that the poll stated that of all the people polled 34% were Democrats and 30% were Republicans? This means the poll is SKEWED 4% in favor of the democratic view point.

Did you take basic statistics 101 in college? My freaking 11 year old daughter could see that this poll favors one side over the other.

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:03 pm

“Thank you for making my point.”

You have not come close to proving anything td. Those polling organizations use the same methodology to determine political races, the good ones are always within the margin of error. There are higher numbers of Democrats because there are more Democrats! Duh.

td

May 15th, 2012
3:05 pm

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:03 pm

“because there are more Democrats! Duh.”

Never heard that one before so you are going to have to prove it with a source please.

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:06 pm

“What in the h3ll do you call the fact that the poll stated that of all the people polled 34% were Democrats and 30% were Republicans?”

Do you really believe there are the same amount of Democrats as there are Republicans td???? Every major poll out there disagrees with you. Gallup, Pew, Wall St, ABC, CBS, IPSOS. Its not a liberal conspiracy.

td

May 15th, 2012
3:10 pm

Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.1%, Democrats 33.1%, Unaffiliateds 31.8%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

PRINCETON, NJ — In 2010, 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, down five percentage points from just two years ago and tied for the lowest annual average Gallup has measured in the last 22 years. While Democrats still outnumber Republicans by two points, the percentage identifying as independents increased to 38%, on the high end of what Gallup has measured in the last two decades.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145463/democratic-party-drops-2010-tying-year-low.aspx

This one proves your point but is within the margin of error.

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
3:12 pm

Did you take basic statistics 101 in college?

This question just drips irony. td, do you realize statisticians ADJUST the percentages if there are more respondents in one group than another?

Basically this means if a poll has 100 respondents, 65 Democratic responses and 35 Republicans, a “yes” or “no” by a Republican carries more weight. Their yes or no does not equal 1% of the results, it equals more than 1%. An individual Democratic response would mean less than 1%.

I understand your frustration and I’m trying to say this as gently as I can…but don’t you think people who do numbers all day long have noticed that not accounting for more Republicans or Democrats would give skewed results?

Have you considered this situation has happened before and maybe they deal with it so the percentages are NOT skewed if the sample is skewed? You almost never get a non-skewed population in real life.

td

May 15th, 2012
3:16 pm

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:06 pm

The above two are the only polling agencies that I have found that polls total number of Dems V Repub in the country. One says the Repubs have 2 point lead and the other says Dems has a two point lead. That tells me they are the same.

Now go and look up people in the country that consider themselves conservative V liberal.

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:18 pm

td your Gallup link is nearly a year and a half old!!!

Try this one: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

And this one which shows the history of all the polls: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/30/party-id_n_725948.html

td

May 15th, 2012
3:19 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
3:12 pm

I understand the weighting of data to take out statistical anomalies but do you not think that would be stated in the methodology if they actually weighted the data as such?

td

May 15th, 2012
3:25 pm

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:18 pm

From reading the data in Gallop it appears that they are listing their polling data on asking the respondents their party affiliation and is not polling specifically to check party affiliation. I could be wrong but I do not think so. The Ramussen poll I cited appears to be an actual poll nationwide to determine party affiliation.

Sorry but I do not believe anything written in the Huffington post.

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
3:34 pm

do you not think that would be stated in the methodology if they actually weighted the data as such?

It’s always something that you do in statistics when converting raw numbers of respondents to percentages. The press release does have weighted and unweighted numbers so obviously somebody thought of it along the way. But I don’t know of anywhere to find the full step-by step calculated methodology of the poll online. I don’t know if anyone besides other statisticians would care. God, talk about glazed eyeballs….

Question Man

May 15th, 2012
3:36 pm

Why did Georgia end up with tax-and-spend Republicans?. Don’t we now have the worst of all worlds?

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:37 pm

“Sorry but I do not believe anything written in the Huffington post.”

All they did there is list the results of individual pollsters td, can’t find much bias in that. All you have to do is click the name of each poll listed and it brings you right to the source of the poll. That is a cop out. The Gallup poll is indeed accurate, another cop out.

Rasmussen is the only pollster to have Republicans ahead. Now a little research will also show they have been one of the most inaccurate. If you want to go with Rasmussen so be it, despite the overwhelming evidence.

td

May 15th, 2012
3:42 pm

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
3:34 pm

Below is the methodology Gallop uses and it has no statistical variances formulas to weed out anomalies.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105226/world-poll-methodology.aspx

td

May 15th, 2012
3:47 pm

DannyX

“Overwhelming evidence”? It appears that Rasmussen and Newsweek where the only two to get the 2008 Presidential election exactly correct.

Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election
—Initial Report, November 5, 2008—
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science
Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulo@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection
polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.
Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain
support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.
Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were
perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection
polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

td

May 15th, 2012
3:48 pm

td

May 15th, 2012
3:47 pm

Should be Pew and not Newsweek (they were the worst).

td

May 15th, 2012
3:52 pm

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
3:37 pm

Another site that rated the polls

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

Aaron Burr V Mexico

May 15th, 2012
3:55 pm

(munches popcorn)

Rules violations galore. Watching. Counting.

Aaron Burr V Mexico

May 15th, 2012
4:00 pm

http://www.politico.com/arena/bio/costas_panagopoulos.html

For those of you who want to know who Mr. Panagopoulos is, he’s a political consultant for Politico.

He is also a member of a trade group of national political consultants.

On the other hand, Michelle Malkin hates him so your mileage may vary.

Nate Silver at 538 has a different opinion.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

DannyX

May 15th, 2012
4:04 pm

2010 mid terms, Rasmussen missed badly. They were obviously overestimating the number of Republicans, just like they are doing now. They are currently out of sync with every single polling organization concerning political affiliation.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Rasmussen was the only thing Republicans had going for them in 2008! Rasmussen would release a poll that had McCain in front and Republicans would go crazy! All of the other polls contradicted Rasmussen, Rasmussen came around at the very end.

Aquagirl

May 15th, 2012
4:06 pm

td, that’s the methodology of how Gallup conducts a poll.They list it because there are variances between polling organizations–like calling cellphones or not, how many attempts, etc. They don’t go into statistical methodology because that doesn’t vary. How you calculate 100% based on 2971 responses doesn’t vary. Or at least it shouldn’t. If it does, that’s not called methodology, it’s called sucking at how you do math.

It’s been a while since I took statistics but I believe the breakdown of a non-stratified sample is called “statistical benchmarking.” You do that when you can’t deliberately get 50 men and 50 women, and you don’t want the results artificially skewed because 75 women picked up the phone.

There’s lots of squiggly figures involved that would make normal humans tear their hair out, but if you want to see what it looks like:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_benchmarking

honested

May 15th, 2012
4:36 pm

This has been fun (although a bit slow) to read.

Yet I though everyone knew about the raz-munchken rule – Subtract 5 from the repug. Add 5 to the Democrat, then be just below margin of error (usually at the limit) still for the republican.

Their polls are never right because of their lazy (inexpensive robocall) methodology.
But if you want to prove the inaccurate, they are definitely your guys.

Edward Ruffin

May 16th, 2012
7:15 am

Agree with John Galt, Deal is an establishment Republican who will raise taxes while talking about less taxes. The recent “tax reform” proves it. It shifts a whole bunch of taxes around but I have a hard time seeing where anyone’s taxes were cut.