After Super Tuesday, the GOP contest could become a matter of persuasion
To understand why Newt Gingrich feels no compunction to leave the GOP presidential race — short of a Mitt Romney landslide on Tuesday, anyway – requires a walk deep into the weeds with Randy Evans of Atlanta.
Evans is a longtime Gingrich ally. More important, he serves as the former U.S. House speaker’s attorney.
Super Tuesday, Evans says could be the dawn of a new phase in the GOP nomination process that will be dominated by persuasion – not raw arithmetic. The contest will shift into the hands of delegates who can change their minds from week-to-week, or month-to-month.
Here’s the step-by-step logic he e-mailed over this afternoon:
There are actually 524 unbound delegates to the Convention.
A total of 1,144 delegates out of 2,286 are required to win. But to win the nomination pre-convention, with legally bound delegates, a candidate must receive 1,144 out of 1,762 legally bound delegates — or 65 percent of the legally bound delegates.
Romney has won Arizona and Florida (both of which have been contested as proportional under the Republican National Committee). Newt has won South Carolina.
To date, only 214 bound delegates have been determined.
Although they have had primaries or caucuses, delegates from Iowa (28), Maine (24), Colorado (36), and Minnesota (40) are actually not legally bound.
If Romney splits Super Tuesday states, he has a big math problem. Tomorrow, the total legally bound delegates at play is 382.
North Dakota (28) and Wyoming (29) are actually not legally bound.
To date, Romney has 146 delegates.If he splits the 10 Super Tuesday states, he gets 191. He would have 337 delegates out of the 1,144 needed to win — or under 30 percent.
There are only eight remaining winner-take-all states left, with only 382 legally bound delegates. The three other winner-take-all contests have already happened.
If Romney swept all the winner take all states, he would only get 382 more delegates. Such a result would only get him to 719 delegates, or still 425 delegates short of 1,144.
But, at that point, there would only be 784 bound delegates left available — putting aside the winner- take-all states.
More significantly, the 784 must be divided proportionately in some way or the other. Here is the math problem:
Assuming a split on Super Tuesday, and that Romney wins all the winner-take-all states, he would still need to win 321 of the remaining available 784 to win the nomination before the convention. With states like Alabama (47), Mississippi (37), Louisiana (25), Arkansas (33), and Texas (155) – or 297 delegates – on the horizon, the math just does not add up for a Romney, legally bound, pre-convention nomination. In fact, the proportionality rules make it impossible.
Basically, if Romney does not sweep tomorrow night, his shot at a forced, pre-convention nomination is gone.
Evans adds these footnotes to help with the math:
– List of unbound delegates by state: AL-3; AK-3, American Samoa, Ark.-3, CA-3, CO-36, CT-3, DE-17, DC-3, Guam-9, Hawaii-3, ID-9, IL-69, IN-19, IA-28, KY-3, LA-21, ME-24, MD-3, Mass.-3, Minn.-40, MS-3, Montana-26, Neb.-3, NM-3, NY-3, NC-3, ND-28, Northern Marina-9, OH-3, OK-3, OR-3, PA-72, PR-3, RI-3, SD-3, TE-3, TX-3, UT-3, Virgin Islands-9, VA-3, WA-3, WV-3, Wis.-3, WY-29.
– List of bound delegates by state: NH (12), SC (25), FL (50), Nev. (28), AZ (29), MI (30), Wash. (40).
– Super Tuesday legally bound delegates by state: Alaska-24, Ga. 76, ID (23), Mass. (38), OH (63), OK (40), TN (55), VT (17), and VA (46).
– List of Romney legally bound delegates by state: NH-7, FL-50, Nev.-14, AZ-29, MI-16, WA-30.
– Winner-take-all state contests yet to occur: CA-169, DE-17, DC-16, MD-34, NJ-50, PR-20, UT-37, and WI-39. Five other states (IN, KS, MI, VT, and VA) have various winner take all forms at the congressional district level.
– Winner -take-all state contests that have already happened: AZ-29; FL-50; SC-25. Michigan was winner-take- all at the congressional district level.
- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider
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52 comments Add your comment
All I'm Saying Is...
March 5th, 2012
5:38 pm
So ‘unbound delegates’ are the ties that will bind the GOP candidates together until the convention…reads like a recipe for disaster a la the Dems in ‘68…
Watcher
March 5th, 2012
5:39 pm
Mr. Evans and his ilk are going to ensure that President Obama is reelected.
Ok I'll play along
March 5th, 2012
5:59 pm
I thought Newt was hanging in there until all the books were sold.
candidates make final push ahead of Super Tuesday – CBS News | 24h News
March 5th, 2012
6:00 pm
[...] Tuesday, State by StateNew York Times (blog)The Associated Press -Daily Beast -Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)all 2,661 news articles » © 2012 24h News Free [...]
jconservative
March 5th, 2012
6:07 pm
“There are actually 524 unbound delegates to the Convention.”
And the vast majority of these are breaking for Romney.
ld
March 5th, 2012
6:26 pm
Though Newt is running for president and not VP,
Newt would likely accept the VP position because what he wants is power and the opportunity to hear himself speak that comes w/it and the opportunity to scope out money-making opportunities for after office.
If/when he loses it is because he has made statements that have actually served to decrease the power and influence that might have remained after he left the position of Speaker.
Love the Democracy
March 5th, 2012
6:32 pm
Leave it to Newt to rely on the unbound.
That’s what was so appealing to him during his open marriage period.
Centrist
March 5th, 2012
6:49 pm
What a bunch of wishful thinking.
Romney has all but clinched the nomination. Tomorrow he will win half the Super Tuesday delegates to pad his majority lead. The national and state polling momentum is with him with majorities in most polls. The big delegate rich states on both seaboards are behind him. Santorum is in trouble in his own rustbelt industrial region. Gingrich has only a few southern states. There is no math that works – just smoke, mirrors, and a compliant media selling advertising and shilling for Obama.
Limbaugh Dialectic
March 5th, 2012
7:17 pm
If a woman uses birth control, she must be a s!ut;
If her insurance covers her birth control, she is a pro$titute.
sheepdawg
March 5th, 2012
7:35 pm
if a frog had wings…….
Ok I'll play along
March 5th, 2012
8:25 pm
centrist…with fox news blaring in banks and even in restaurants and stations like 750 AM and 920 AM in Atlanta how is it that the POTUS is getting a break from the press?? What is it you want the other channels to say about the president? fix news was the ones calling him the messiah. 750 and 920 have made plenty of money trying to discredit everything he does EVERY day!!
Look before I leap...
March 5th, 2012
8:31 pm
Prediction markets are much rosier for Romney than the polling.
They are forecasting 7 states for Romney (MA, VA, OH, VT, ID, AK and ND) In fact the prediction for OH is that Santorum only has a 1 in 5 chance of winning.
2 for Santorum (OK and TN)
1 for Gingrich (GA).
VT and VA will go almost 100% to Romney. 66 bound and unbound.
Romney should do well in the Atlanta metro districts and net about 30 delegates statewide.
Various district scenarios have Romney picking up an additional 125-170 delegates in the other states. That should equate to about 2/3 of the delegates at stake tomorrow. Giving Romney just under half of what he needs to claim the throne.
If Romney exceeds expectations and picks up in excess of 300 delegates tomorrow, he is poised quiet nicely as his chances in the remaining winner take all states should net him another 350 delegates.
With those numbers, he need only take 30% of the remaining proportional state’s delegates. Highly unlikely that he will fall short on that.
Gingrich has absolutely no path forward to the nomination and will have to drop out within 2 weeks after tomorrow’s voting. And any support remaining for Gingrich will split to Romney and Santorum.
Also, one of Santorum’s wins (MO) was essentially a straw poll and will actually vote non-binding caucuses in March and select delegates in April where the results may be far different that the results from early Feb.
So while there are scenarios that may bode for a brokered convention, they appear to be unlikely.
Romney can’t sew it up tomorrow, but he can drag it out if he manages to somehow not meet expectations.
Attack Dog
March 5th, 2012
8:47 pm
Talk about “matter of persuasion,” when you see the wizards of oz (plural) behind radio, you will see that it is more like “matter of indoctrination.” How many social conservatives remember the MSM trying to do an balancing act when Dixiecrats were hollering that we should not change Presidents in the middle of war, and that Cheney was doing such a great job? 2. Sidebar, can anyone say what Cheney’s secret energy policy was? Since it was a secret, and hearing none, meeting adjourned.
Look before I leap...
March 5th, 2012
8:58 pm
TN is now a horse race.
Romney has now closed to within the margin of error in the polls and Gingrich has had a late surge only trailing Romney by 4 1/2 points.
Even better news for Newt, his projected delegate count is now at 56 for GA with Romney currently projected at 17 and Santorum at 3.
I may have to eat my words on Newt dropping out within 2 weeks.
I hate doing that.
Look before I leap...
March 5th, 2012
9:01 pm
The numbers for Santorum have just gone off a cliff.
Wrongly or rightly, I think the silly Rush flap has done significant damage to Santorum.
I wonder if that was Rush’s intent? Has he endorsed?
Madison
March 5th, 2012
9:03 pm
So these delegates can throw over the will of the people who selected them? That ought to play well.
Look before I leap...
March 5th, 2012
9:28 pm
Madison
March 5th, 2012
9:03 pm
So these delegates can throw over the will of the people who selected them? That ought to play well
Used to happen quite often. In the past, there were far more caucuses than primaries.
In 1976, Ford did not have enough committed delegates when the RNC started but managed to win on the first ballot beating out Ronald Reagan.
The last time this happened was the DNC 1984 when Mondale was a bit short in delegate counts. The super-delegates handed Mondale the Democratic nomination early in the balloting process.
Madison
March 5th, 2012
9:52 pm
Okay. Super delegates. I get that. The gOP convention ends August 30, 66 days before the general election. We wont know the candidate until then. The post convention bump will be offset by the Dem convention over the following week. The race to beat the incumbent is 9 weeks. Or…59~ days
td
March 5th, 2012
10:01 pm
Madison
March 5th, 2012
9:03 pm
It is the same with the Electoral College. Most states do not bind the delegates. In other words the American people could vote for one candidate by more than 60% but the delegates could cast their ballot for the other and that candidate would be the next President.
Madison
March 5th, 2012
10:10 pm
I remember 76 and 80. But I also remember the winner in both those close conventions – Ford and Carter both were so weakened that they lost the general election.
Centrist
March 5th, 2012
10:11 pm
Romney will have the nomination wrapped up long before the convention. Santorum may be out by next weekend – Gingrich is having too much fun with his bigger ego. But for argument sake -
When delegates switch allegiance it is usually FOR the front runner to avoid a debilitating party fight (like the Ford and Mondale examples above). When a candidate drops out of the race, he can (and usually does) release his delegates to vote for their next choice – even if that candidate endorses. Endorsements don’t carry any obligation to delegates. Romney is going to pick up some of either Santorum’s or Gingrich’s delegates either after one drops out, or at the convention in the unlikely event that neither drops out.
Georgia Values
March 5th, 2012
10:20 pm
Gingrich will win Tennessee. Late polls are showing that Tennessee voters have realized that the Obama contraception deception was made possible by Santorum, and he slid almost 10 points just today.
Centrist
March 5th, 2012
10:33 pm
Tennessee is now a 3 way race and since it is a proportional state for those earning more than 15% of the vote – looks like Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich will each get about a third of the delegates:
Yesterday’s We Ask America poll showing former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 30% of the vote and U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich tied with former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum at 29% followed by Texas congressman Ron Paul at 12%.
Look before I leap...
March 5th, 2012
10:51 pm
@Centrist
There is usually a price to pay for release of delegates.
Though quid pro quo is technically illegal, there is usually an understanding.
This brings up the issue of VPOTUS. In my view, Santorum offers little in additional regional weight for Romney. That he can be an effective anti-Obama pit-bull is not without doubt. But there is little appeal in the swing states (PA being a biggie). Santorum fairs badly in all swing states, OH possibly excepted.
Gingrich is smarter and more seasoned than Santorum, but the personal and political baggage is heavy. He does open up appeal in the south but these states are going red regardless.
I like Hunstman, but he is Romney II. Not enough cross-over appeal there to provide significant advantage.
Christie? perhaps but gain there is a regional issue. Both are NE politicians and Christie can’t deliver NJ to the GOP.
Rubio – limited national exposure and too many unknowns and no executive leadership experience. Plain at least had been governor for a couple of years. An experiment not likely to be repeated by the GOP after the 2008 disaster.
Boehner? a VP that cries on cue? Did not work so well for Hillary.
Centrist
March 5th, 2012
10:57 pm
We won’t know the delegate count until Wednesday (and a few will change later). The media will breathlessly be trying to call winners of the states until 1 or 2 in the morning – even though actual winners don’t matter, only delegates. Romney will win about half of tomorrow’s delegates and add to his commanding lead which will total about a third of what he needs for the nomination with 3/4 of the delegates yet to pick. Large hunks of the remaining delegates are on both coasts. You may recall these are mostly “blue” states where Romney is doing best – you know, the ones the GOP need to flip to win in November. This fact is not lost on the primary electorate and a big reason they are turning to Romney.
Antebellum Ayn
March 5th, 2012
11:00 pm
Brilliant. The super attorney has figured out that delegates matter. That’s what Ron Paul has been telling us with a sly smile for MONTHS. Beyond primaries and caucuses, beyond allocations and bound delegates, without a clear winner prior to the convention it all comes down to persuasion which is why Ron Paul has spent his money — from small individual donations, not from a single super pac donor — in a truly fiscally responsible way on small states with an affordable media market and on delegate outreach. Expect that to continue.
Look before I leap...
March 5th, 2012
11:00 pm
Madison
March 5th, 2012
10:10 pm
I remember 76 and 80. But I also remember the winner in both those close conventions – Ford and Carter both were so weakened that they lost the general election.
Ford was not weakened by the convention, he had economy issues and had Nixon taint.
Mondale was just plain unappealing. No zip. decent guy, pretty smart running against a charismatic incumbent. No chance.
80 – never a doubt that Carter would get the nod. Never a doubt that he would lose to a GOP turnip with good hair. Kennedy tried to make some mischief and Carter did not get the nod until the first ballot, but it was known well before the DNC what the outcome would be.
Look before I leap...
March 5th, 2012
11:03 pm
Ayn
I like Ron Paul.
He has ZERO chance.
There is NO delegate math that give him the nomination.
double
March 5th, 2012
11:09 pm
I will be hurt if the great state of Tennessee fails Newt.All us redneck hillbillies should stick together.
honested
March 5th, 2012
11:11 pm
This discussion of which VP candidate will revive the gop dead horse race provides levity.
Outside of our potty little state (and the two even more backward ones to the east and west) most of America has come to clearly understand the gop has NO CHANCE of regaining the Presidency this cycle (and probably not next).
Despite the gop’s best efforts in the House for the last year and a half, the economy is improving, one war is over and the other is ending, there is no rubber stamp in the White House for diving into a losing situation in Iran, in short items of success that the American People are seeking.
Maybe it is a good time for the minority party to revisit the concept of successful governance instead of concentration on failed ideology.
dixiedemons
March 5th, 2012
11:13 pm
Come on republiCons !!!!!! you know that you know you are going to vote for which ever white guy wins your party’s nomination
George Hills
March 6th, 2012
12:03 am
> step-by-step logic
Evans is going around the back of his hand to reach his thumb. Mr. Gingrich helped pass the 1996 misdemeanor gun ban in Congress, hiding it in a 750-page last-minute budget bill. He fooled a lot of people and many in his district stayed mad until he quit in 1998.
Travis McGee
March 6th, 2012
12:04 am
State-Wide I.Q Test Today!
Everyone who votes for Newt or Santorum will receive a Thank You note from the President.
Look before I leap...
March 6th, 2012
1:15 am
Travis McGee
March 6th, 2012
12:04 am
State-Wide I.Q Test Today!
That Georgia will overwhelmingly go for New tomorrow is not in question.
The question is why?
He can’t win the nod for the GOP nomination
He can’t unseat Obama in Nov should he defy all odds and get said nomination.
He is morally bankrupt – 2 ex-wives – admitted adulterer on wife 1 and 2.
3 changes in religious affiliation – Lutheran, Baptist and Roman Catholic
Hasn’t lived in GA for 13 years.
Resigned as a rep rather than have his own party toss his sorry *ss to the street (coward).
SO tell me, what is the man’s appeal in in GA?
WORKING STIFF
March 6th, 2012
6:24 am
Thanks FLUSH LIMBO for all you do to help the Democrats.
Buckhead Boy
March 6th, 2012
6:29 am
Look …, your question presupposes reason on the part of those guided by faith.
Travis McGee
March 6th, 2012
7:15 am
Thank you for making my point for me. I don’t understand it either; but watch it happen.
Father A. Long
March 6th, 2012
7:23 am
New is counting on people with no sense of commitment. That is how he can take both sides of issues, and remain Newtral.
Bill Orvis White
March 6th, 2012
7:32 am
We must recognize and be confident that any one of the three qualified GOP candidates WILL beat Hussein Obama come this November. With that fact clearly laid out here on this lefty blog, WE must come together to support the rightful Republican nominee. WE must not show discord within this successful party. WE must be dedicated to the values and principles that made this once-free nation great. WE must get the word out to the undecideds out there that the Republican Party is the party of the future that WILL better everyone’s lives. WE must get the word out that the Socialist-Democrat Party wishes to redistribute wealth and hand out hard-earned dollar$ to those who DO NOT DESERVE THOSE DOLLAR$! Vote Republican today and then really vote Republican in November 2012 to stop the socialistic Hussein Obama machine which will seriously destroy America.
Amen,
Bill
Madison
March 6th, 2012
7:37 am
In 1980, Carter was predicted to take the convention, but Kennedy’s play divided the party. People forget that Reagan was not the icon then that he was to become. Even with the Kennedy liberals against Carter, Reagan needed the Iran hostage crisis to get the win.
Murph
March 6th, 2012
7:40 am
Bill Orvis – We hear you. God bless these ones but not those ones. Yawn….
Despite your sanctimonious bluster, the election has come down to one simple choice. If you think the government is for the PEOPLE, then vote Democratic. If you believe government is for the CORPORATIONS, then vote Republican. All the rest is a distraction.
Madison
March 6th, 2012
7:41 am
BOW: “… three qualified candidates…” So are you leaving out Paul, Gingrich, Santorum or Romney. For my money, Paul and Romney are the only two that would govern with any kind of effectiveness. And of all candidates, Paul is the only one who believes what he says. Well, maybe Santorum, but if he believes it, that’s even more scary for women.
reebok
March 6th, 2012
7:43 am
It felt great to vote this morning, but it was bittersweet…almost certainly the last time I will ever be able to vote against Newt. How I have treasured the experience…
tm guy
March 6th, 2012
8:00 am
I voted Santorum this morning and am waiting on my thank you note from the President.
double
March 6th, 2012
8:05 am
Orifice are you saying vote for Kellog Brown & Root today?Then vote for Halliburton come November?
Centrist
March 6th, 2012
8:09 am
Romney’s VP choice will not matter much – few people vote with that in mind. VP’s are chosen mostly for balance (possibly flip a battleground state, concession to a nominee competitor, give a leg up to a future party rising star, unexperienced dark horse so as not to overshadow the candidate). I doubt Romney will pick the inexperienced lap dog (think Eagleton, Ferraro, Edwards, Quayle, Palin). There are so many battleground states, two nominee competitors, and several GOP rising stars.
The speculation is fun and a media focus which candidates love between securing enough nomination delegates and the convention. But whoever Romney picks is not likely to make much difference in the election result except possibly his home state – any more than Biden on the Obama ticket (Delaware is a blue state anyway).
Centrist
March 6th, 2012
8:25 am
Referred to “his” above in reference to a VP, but female Governors Rell, Brewer, Martinez, Fallin, and Haley are possibilities.
missmollie
March 6th, 2012
9:33 am
@ Centrist: You amaze me…
Are you a lawyer, college professor, banker, independent, politico, or just a retired ole business man/ (no offense)??? Seems like you are on top of GOP/Ga politics. I hope so. Have you voted for MR yet? I will later today. P.S. He will not pick any of your possibilities for VP.. I suggest his choices may be: Rubio, Christy, Va Governor, Jeb Bush (his connections with the Spanish vote and Barbara’s endorsement).
missmollie
March 6th, 2012
9:38 am
@ Centrist: Question Is it possible that the incumbent may pick Hilliary as his VP running mate….he and Bill are getting mighty cozy???
Bill Orvis White
March 6th, 2012
10:28 am
@Madison
Ron Paul is an anti-Semite. WE NEED an aggressive foreign policy agenda. Ron Paul wishes to weaken us with a cut and run attitude. Speaker Gingrich is the most qualified to take Hussein Obama down in a series of Lincoln/Douglas-style debates. Speaker Gingrich has a strong record of fighting for the people, has a great business acumen and vision for the future. Senator Santorum is another good candidate who practices everything he preaches. And I love Governor Romney although I cannot excuse him for RomneyCare. Like Speaker Gingrich, Governore Romney has a wonderful business acumen and strong record dealing with the Socialist-Democrat Party in Taxachusetts. If He can deal with those strong Taxachusetts liberals, then Governor Romney can handle anything slung at Him.
Amen,
Bill