Over the weekend, a Mason-Dixon poll showing a thin wafer of majority support in metro Atlanta for next year’s transportation sales tax was released by the AJC and Channel 2 Action News.
Fifty-one percent of voters said they would support it, and 36 percent said they would oppose it.
In a conversation with Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon this morning, Tim Bryant of WGAU (1340AM) in Athens pointed out that a 15 point lead looks pretty good. Coker’s answer, in this clip Bryant sent over, might surprise you:
”Typically in tax referendums, the undecided voters more often than not will break strongly against the tax increase. So I’m a little less optimistic that this will actually pass once the time [to] vote comes around….
“I’ve been polling referendums for 25 years, and usually a referendum gets its strongest support at the very start of the campaign, and over time – it’s always easier to flip people into the ‘no’ column. One of the reasons is that people don’t really know about this plan yet. We found that only 30 percent are really familiar with it, and what projects are probably going to be proposed….
“A lot of times once the details become more widely known, then support backs off. I’ve seen sales tax referendums that start out with 57, 58 percent support and at the end of the day they only get 45.
“So 51 is not a great number to be stake out this early.
- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider