Your morning jolt: Fla. win no guarantee, says Herman Cain

GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain addresses delegates at the Republican Party of Florida Presidency 5 Convention and Straw Poll at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando. Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/MCT

GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain addresses delegates at the Republican Party of Florida Presidency 5 Convention and Straw Poll at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando. Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/MCT

Herman Cain spent Monday morning relishing his startling Saturday victory in Florida’s GOP presidential straw poll, but stopped short of citing his 37 percent showing as a guarantee of future success.

Cain won 37.1 percent of more than 2,500 votes cast in the straw poll conducted at the tail end of a three-day convention of activists in Orlando. Conducted off-and-on since 1979, the winner of the Florida straw poll has gone on to win the Republican nomination.

“I think it means we have picked up some substantial momentum,” Cain said in an interview with Scott Slade on AM750 and 95.5FM News/Talk WSB – where Cain once served as a night-time talk show host.

“I don’t think that the past is necessarily a predictor of the future, although I like the fact that this has been a trend over the years. But the political landscape has changed so much…that I don’t think that it guarantees anything – other than I and my team, we need to keep working hard,” Cain said.

The attention has given Cain a window to plug his economic plan: A shift in the U.S. tax code to a 9 percent corporate tax, a 9 percent personal income tax, and a 9-percent sales tax.

But the former pizza magnate gave himself credit for overcoming the media’s focus on other candidates. Cain said he drew two lessons from the vote: “No. 1, the voice of the people is more powerful than the voice media. And No. 2, message is more important than money.”

In fact, most national news outlets focused on the straw poll results as a setback for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

From the New York Times:

But Mr. Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, left the state early Friday for events in Indiana and Michigan, effectively telegraphing that his campaign did not place that much importance on the result.
Mr. Perry stayed in Florida through Saturday morning and hosted the breakfast for conference delegates. A win for Mr. Perry at the straw poll might have helped blunt criticism that has been building of his performance in Thursday night’s debate.

From Politico.com:

An issue that may have less impact in other early-state Republican primaries, immigration is a hot-button issue in Florida — and Perry’s botched attempt to explain his policies back home in Texas during Thursday’s Fox News debate has soured conservative activists here on him.

In interview after interview as they filed out of the Orange County Convention Center hall where votes were cast, delegates pointed to his support for a state-based version of the DREAM Act — which provides in-state tuition rates to some illegal immigrants — and his denouncement of those who disagree as lacking “a heart.”

Pointing to the fact that Michele Bachmann won the GOP presidential straw poll in Iowa, and immediately sank, has WP’s The Fix wondering if the Republican’s sharp rightward shift hasn’t rendered the informal votes useless as a predictor:

Straw polls in which only a few thousand people (at most) vote tend to reward candidates with the most loyal, not necessarily the largest, vote bases. The more attention a candidate lavishes on a straw poll, the more likely he or she is to win it. Only the most conservative portion of the Republican base shows up at these events, skewing the results to the most ideological candidate, not the most electable one.

***
The AJC’s Politifact Georgia today takes a look at GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain’s claim that we are in the worst jobs recovery since the Great Depression.

***
Given this Tweet from a NYT reporter on Saturday, Mitt Romney has conceded the LaGrange vote to Rick Perry, or maybe Herman Cain:

Romney says it’s good to be back in MI where you see “More Fords and Chevys and Dodges than you see Nissans and Kias and Toyotas”

***
State Rep. Martin Scott, R-Rossville, had already served notice that a call to the pulpit would prevent him from seeking re-election in 2012. The Chattanooga Free Press pointed out this weekend how religion has warped the man’s thinking:

“I just was not convinced of the fairness of the maps we voted for,” said [Scott]. “I thought more could be done to ensure the other side felt like they had fair access to mapmaking abilities and lawyers that we had.”

Scott was one of two Republicans to vote against the House legislative map, which was criticized widely by Democrats who said they weren’t given a fair chance to develop their own map until the last minute.

Scott had not returned messages asking about the mapmaking process during or after the session, but he returned one left last week.

***
On that same topic: Just before the weekend broke, Aaron Blake over at WP’s The Fix posted a list of the “10 most gerrymandered districts of 2011.” Georgia accounted for one-fifth of the total:

– Coming in at No. 9 was the 8th District of U.S. Rep. Austin Scott, R-Tifton:

While the GOP could have massaged the new districts to go after Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) in the southwest corner of the state, instead they moved Scott’s Macon Democrats into Bishop’s district and moved the freshman south into more conservative territory from the districts represented by Bishop and Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R). Scott’s current district went 43 percent for Obama; his new one would have given the president just 33 percent.

– But U.S. Rep. John Barrow, R-Savannah, rated second place:

Republicans chopped off Barrow’s base (and home) in more liberal Savannah in the southeast part of Georgia’s 12th district and gave him more of the strongly Republican Augusta area to the northeast, completely reshaping the district and making Barrow a marked man. The 12th drops from a swing district that went 55 percent for Obama to one that would go about 40 percent for Obama.

***
The Augusta Chronicle provided this happy news on Sunday:

In 2004 and for the next two years, the indictment and conviction of three prominent politicians rocked the Augusta area. In a few years all three will be released from federal prisons.

Linda Schrenko, Robin Williams and Charles W. Walker Sr. should complete their prison sentences on Aug. 29, 2013, July 20, 2014, and Sept. 26, 2014, respectively — except Walker could be out earlier if his current appeal suceeds.

- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider

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88 comments Add your comment

Retired Solider

September 26th, 2011
9:29 am

Since a large number of states have not completed their redistricting, the WP article and Galloway’s inclusion of it mean nothing.

Mike

September 26th, 2011
9:39 am

“While the GOP could have massaged the new districts to go after Rep. Sanford Bishop;” this statement demonstrates a lack of understanding of the Voting Rights Act. Bishop is black, Sec. 5 requires that he be protected. Sec. 5 of the VRA requires gerrymandering. What is more telling is that, while Sec 5 effects very few states, 8 out of 10 of the states mentioned were either completely covered under Sec. 5 or have counties covered under Sec. 5. This, more than any study I’ve seen, shows the VRA, Sec. 5 States are required to gerrymander.

Centrist

September 26th, 2011
9:49 am

There is a grossly biased AP article on at least the front page of the electronic edition of the AJC titled: “The American ‘allergy’ to global warming: Why?” There is absolutely no balance or mention of the tens of thousands of scientists (not economic and politically motivated politicians, U.N. employees, and junk scientists profiting from grants eliciting false data) who refute the hypothesis of ANTHROPOGENIC (man made) global warming. Natural global warming has been real since our relatively recent Ice Age and will hopefully continue for tens of thousands more years until the next Ice Age. It’s benefits will likely outweigh negatives (as when Greenland’s coast was arable for the Vikings during the Medieval Warm Period purposely ignored in the famous junk science “Hockey Stick” graph.

Bill Orvis White

September 26th, 2011
10:02 am

Annoy the media and the elites: Herman WILL become president. Why? Because just like the honorable President Reagan, Herman is an American success story that people look up to. Herman will fight for the American Dream the minute that he’s inaugurated.
Amen,
Bill
http://billwhitesavesamerica.blogspot.com/2011/09/why-herman-will-be-president.html

Ol' Timer

September 26th, 2011
10:02 am

The only thing Herman Cain’s victory in Florida shows is how screwed up the GOTP really is.

And, in response to the Chattanooga Free Press statement — Mr. Scott is not the only person to have their thinking screwed up by religion.

Bill Orvis White

September 26th, 2011
10:05 am

@Centrist The global warming hoax has been concocted by socialist-secular “scientists” who not only suck off the teet of grant money, but also kill jobs and economic growth. This socialistic maneuver ultimately weakens the US’ position in the world thereby making WE THE PEOPLE vulnerable to the jihadist threat. In all honesty, these scientists are engaged in treason of the highest order. But, WE THE PEOPLE don’t have time to rightfully prosecute the criminals. We can only stock up on essentials for the day the jihadists storm our shores.
Amen,
Bill

Joe Mama

September 26th, 2011
10:05 am

Mr. White, have you been drinking before lunchtime again?

Bill Orvis White

September 26th, 2011
10:11 am

@JoeMama Why is it that Herman Cain resonates with average Americans? I’m not talking about those elites on the coasts-those secular-socialist folk drink at lunchtime. BTW, nice try at the drinking thing with me since I gave up the drink years ago when I accepted Jesus Christ into my life and never looked back — just like Mr. Cain accepts Jesus and knows that this is a Judeo-Christian nation built upon the principles of God, free markets and self-reliance. Mr. Cain knows this and guess what? He’s winning! I’m praying that Mr. Cain goes into Governor Romney’s territory in Michigan, reminds those folks that RomneyCare failed and that union thugs destroyed their lives. Once those folk up in Michigan hear these truths, guess what? Herman will WIN MICHIGAN OF ALL PLACES and then go on to win the nomination and destroy Hussein Obama in the debates.
Amen,
Bill

Missy

September 26th, 2011
10:25 am

Has Herman ever been elelcted to any office?

td

September 26th, 2011
10:29 am

Let the Republicans debate, vote and vet every candidate and get the best, most conservative member for the job. Whoever they decide on will be the next President of the United States.

Jon Lester

September 26th, 2011
10:39 am

Would Cain care to elaborate on why he likes a Pinochet-era program so much, when the current elected Chilean government is near to achieving practical income equality?

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
10:40 am

Nice win…yet will still not probably get the nomination.

clem

September 26th, 2011
10:49 am

SNL spoof of republican debate was too close to reality

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
10:52 am

clem….I just watched it. I am a repub and I actually thought it was really funny.

Retired Solider

September 26th, 2011
10:59 am

Missy-

Has Obama ever created a job?

GaBlue

September 26th, 2011
11:00 am

Oh, PLEASE DO send ALL your money to Mr. Cain’s campaign! Hahahaha!

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:07 am

Retired….nope but he has sure help to eliminate some.

TRUTH

September 26th, 2011
11:12 am

The excitement builds as Herman Cain WINS A STRAW POLL!!!

“STRAW POLL,” need we have any other discussion? In this space of “let’s pretend,” it amazes me that one would consider this a real earth moving moment. Cain of Perry, Florida showed its distaste for Tea Party politics in that vote, again, completely missing that aspect of the story. Mitt is too…o.k., a description of Mitt escapes me, as it does to the majority of the GOP. And, Cain, who by virtue of being from neighboring Georgia wins a STRAW POLL…

Frankly, the GOP has NO electable candidate. It’s a fractured party that plays to the fringe. Even if a GOP candidate was more centered, the fear is that the big, bad Tea Party will NOT endorse him and fund a candidate to run against him/her. Anyone noticed that the majority of candidates running for the GOP are NOT currently in office or has never held office before? The lone exception if Perry of Texas, Bachmann of Minnesota, and Paul, also of Texas. Insert bizarre political statements and claims here for any of these folks.

This is sad, but its sooooo flipping funny to watch.

OBAMA 2012!!

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:13 am

TRUTH….now THAT was funny!

TRUTH

September 26th, 2011
11:13 am

Apologies for the typos, but hopefully you get the gist of what was written…

TRUTH

September 26th, 2011
11:15 am

@Dacula 1995 11:13 AM, taking a bow…. Somebody had too say it, my friend…

I don't think Gerrymandering is a term they could define.

September 26th, 2011
11:18 am

Clearly these are shifts, but in a state that grew at 18+% as a whole with the majority of the growth being north of Atlanta, there have to be shifts in S. GA

Moving a district around is not gerrymandering. Gerrymandering is would be the Democratically drawn 2000 version of this district that extended from Savannah to Athens. Or David Scotts district that was a spider that wrapped around Atlanta or Phil Gingreys district that was only connected by single points in places to ensure a Democrat would win.

Republicans did not gerrymander this map. They did however shift the districts around due to population and demographic changes.

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:19 am

TRUTH….the FACT is that any and all of the candidates on the republican stage are better than what we have now. There is NO way Obama will win again. If you believe he will, can you please tell me what he is going to run on? Hope and Change will not work again.

Eli

September 26th, 2011
11:21 am

The GOP is fractured in an unproductive way…at least as far as 2012 is concerned.

Either the nominee puts the Tea Party it is rightful place, under the bus, or the embrace the Tea Party and lose the General Election.

The big question looming over the punditry is this: when the Tea Party gets thrown under the bus in the General Election campaign, what will they do?

They have options…but the real message of that campaign will be that the Tea Party is not a national player. It is a lose lose situation for the GOP. Either they alienate their primary base in the General Election or they alienate the other 90% of the voting public by embracing the Tea Party. Will the Tea Party guarantee the reelection of President Obama by running an “independent,” will they bite the bullet and vote for a Mitt Romney, or will they abstain from voting all together and, again, ensure President Obama’s reelection?

What a pickle! No wonder the smart money is on the Presidents Reelection!

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:24 am

Eli….with a 39% approval rating…..I dont think so.

td

September 26th, 2011
11:27 am

TRUTH

September 26th, 2011
11:12 am

“Frankly, the GOP has NO electable candidate. It’s a fractured party that plays to the fringe”

I can just about guarantee you that you will not see anything but a 100% united party come November 2012.

My Prediction

September 26th, 2011
11:27 am

Watch the GOP Florida primary votes (the ones that count) not the straw poll. The GOP/tea baggers are merely engaging in PR to improve their image on race. When the time comes when votes will count, they will not vote for Cain.

Retired Solider

September 26th, 2011
11:31 am

Eli-

What does the Tea party want to do?
1. Balance the budget.
2. Reduce our national debt.
3. Enforce the constitution.

Which of those do you disagree with Eli?

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:32 am

My Prediction…..I think most people would vote for Cain however I think he would be better served as a VP or something in that capacity.

GaBlue

September 26th, 2011
11:33 am

Dacula 1995:

Actually, your statements @ 11:19 comprise your OPINION, not “FACT.” I suspect you claim your opinion = fact, so that the good readers here will afford it more weight and credibility than someone else’s opinion, but the reality is, that’s just your opinion, and perhaps a dash of wishful thinking. (Helpful tip: Instead of citing your opinion as fact, use actual facts to support your opinion. Not everyone will agree, but you’ll have more cred. You’re welcome, and have a lovely day!)

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:35 am

GaBlue….ok so tell me what is Obama going to run on? He cannot run on his record? Do you really think “hope and change” is going to work?

DannyX

September 26th, 2011
11:36 am

I see the AJC is in hyper Republican cheerleader mode as usual. Bookman spends the morning propping up the huge Republican tax increase, now this blog totally pretends the Perry breakdown never occurred, we end up with another GO HERMAN story. Nice added touch was the ajc digging up an old scary APS story.

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:38 am

DannyX…..rose colored lenses you have?

GaBlue

September 26th, 2011
11:41 am

Dacula 1995, I’m sorry, but I am not privy to the President’s campaign strategy for next year. As such, the best I could offer is conjecture, and you seem like a person who demands answers. Predicting the future isn’t my speciality, but thanks for asking!

td

September 26th, 2011
11:48 am

Eli

September 26th, 2011
11:21 am

You are dreaming my friend.

Obama was elected by the following reasons:

1: The African American vote came out in record numbers and voted for Obama at a 97% rate: Is this group still going to turn out in record numbers considering the what I have been hearing about Obama not doing anything for them?

2: Youth vote: The youth turned out due to the “Hope and Change” message and because they could vote the first African American as President. With unemployment at the highest rate since the 70’s in this demographic and the realization that Obama has not changed the way politics is done in DC, will this group turn back out in record numbers or will they o back to more traditional numbers?

3: White suburban women: This is the demoraphic that put Obama over the top in 2008. This group has been called the soccer moms, security moms and other names in previous election cycles. With the way the economy has been in the past three years will this group give Obama that same 55 to 57% margin next year?

4: Social conservatives: This group carried the election of Bush in 2004 by turnout and stayed home in 2008 due to the McCain message (although Palin did have them a little more active in the waining days of the campaign). Will this group stay home again? I think this group is the most fired up to come out and make sure Obama does not get re elected.

If 1-3 is not excited and come out then where will Obama get his vote totals from and where is Obama going to make up the votes from the social conservatives?

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
11:55 am

Big Hat

September 26th, 2011
11:58 am

Go Herman! America needs a President that speaks English as a second language.

Retired , ret, army, ret. PD, ret. building trades

September 26th, 2011
12:00 pm

I believe Herman Cain is the right guy at the right time.

Retired Solider

September 26th, 2011
12:02 pm

td-

To add to your good points, I submit the following:

1. Do you think Obama is going to carry Ind., VA. and North Carolina again?
2. Obama is behind in Fla., you know the state that just elected a very conservative senator and governor recently.
3. The entire upper mid-west is in play, states like Wis, Mich, and Pa that all just elected republican governors in 2010.
4. What states can Obama carry in 2012 that he lost in 2008? None that I know of.
5. Bottom line, Obama is toast.

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
12:09 pm

Retired….I think Obama knows he is toast as well.

DannyX

September 26th, 2011
12:14 pm

The problem for Republicans in 2012,

1. One after another the Republican Tea Party crowd pleasing candidates have come across as horrible candidates. Republicans have done a full circle going through a bunch of clowns and are now back to Cain. Sarah Palin must be filling invigorated.

2. Republicans think the public is upset with just Democrats. With things not improving one would expect the Republicans to be polling way ahead at this point, far from it. Republicans in office are just as unpopular as the Democrats.

3. The coddle the rich mantra is not what the public wants right now. Nor do they want to hear anything about cuts to SS/Medicare.

4. Everyone knows the American public will not tolerate a Tea Party president, which it seems Republican voters want.

5. The lack of any positive outcomes from Republicans on most issues the past 10 years is startling. The Republican record stinks.

6. The Republicans “Send in the Clowns 2012″ slogan is awful.

Now, if George W Bush stays in his self imposed exile, someone like Romneycare could sneak in and win the presidency.

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
12:18 pm

DannyX….nearly all of the most recent elections prove that the discontent is with the democratic party. It doesnt take a genius to see that. What is even better is that the Dems are in jeopardy of losing the Senate as well.,

Larry L. Clifton

September 26th, 2011
12:19 pm

Cain, Paul, Bachmann, Gingrich and FairTax Johnson would bring personal freedom and economic success to our nation. The time of the ‘club member invertebrate’ (CMI) pretty-boy party fav is going out the window. The time of those same ‘players’ being able to ‘buy’ lifetime political careers is also on the way out. The time of the ‘good ole boy’ incumbent power moguls who think ‘we’ work for ‘them’ is OVER and that is way overdue. We have all seen clearly and more than ever before that the media are Left-leaning and/or Right-leaning. AND all their claims of un-biased, fair, balanced and un-spun input, throughput and output is, in fact, totally the OPPOSITE of those claims. It appears that they, like the Left/Right party power brokers, would love to be King-makers.
Well… ‘We the People’ are, apparently, rocking their world in a very unsettling and unpredictable fashion. What a crying shame.
We aren’t following their ‘prompter spewed’ instructions. Woops. We’re not believing their uninspiring messages or messengers. Bummer.
That is where Cain, Paul, Bachmann, Gingrich and Johnson are coming into play. Surprise! Surprise! They are gaining steady and exponential political ‘traction’. All the concerted efforts to ‘dismiss and minimize’, these inspiring, honest, and steadfast patriots by the ‘CMIs’ and ‘media mouthpiece king-makers’ isn’t slowing down their growing popularity or inspiring messages. The obvious efforts to cast dispersions on them, consider them only ‘entertainment’ and relegate them to a ‘lower tier candidate status’ are FAILING! As it should be.
‘We the People’ are learning that we don’t have to SETTLE for their ‘CMI’ bs…or the Perry and Romney Show they love so. Just say thanks but no thanks. Their failures and the failures of the old political system surround us all. The ‘CMIs’ from BOTH parties have ‘served’ us right into the poorhouse. 60+ years of very poor leadership and Congressional job performance have gotten us here. Banner headlines say it’s “Worst economy since the Great Depression”. Did we do that? Who did that? They did it. No THEY did it. The old ‘flim-flam’ blame game. Fan-friggin-tastic! Great job!
The ‘CMIs’ from BOTH parties have proven over and over and over again that they are not up to the task of running our nation responsibly. Poor decisions and inept leadership has left us all with nearly 15 trillion in debt. AND there’s no sign of sanity, from those same delusional CMIs, in sight. They think it’s cool to raise the debt ceiling again and again and again. After all…it will keep their beloved ‘system’ up running. THEN try to scare us w/a spooky ‘OR ELSE if we don’t’ scenarios’…pure genius. Leadership at it’s best. Realize and understand…that IS their best. That’s all they’ve got. No wonder we’re in this mess. Should we laugh or cry?
I guess what I’m saying here is we don’t have to fall for the same old same old. We must bring in/demand REAL leadership… ‘new blood’ and FORCE common sense and responsibility on the ‘CMIs’. Our voice must be united and very clear. Our message must be unequivocal.
I’m crazy about Herman Cain. I truly believe Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich and Gary Johnson are just the people we need for the job of running this Republic. Any and all would be a God-send for our great nation. We need these fine men and women to stick together and BE the winning ‘team’. As a team they will be an unstoppable force for FREEDOM. Whoever is at the top of the list will need the others to fill important roles and cabinet positions so the positive changes, we need so bad, can be enacted. Times a wastin’!
Personal freedoms and an economic BOOM are needed now. These men and women (and the FairTax that Cain and Johnson love) can help us, help them, make it happen. Onward and upward America!

DannyX

September 26th, 2011
12:20 pm

Under the Herman Cain plan the average Republican will be paying $18,000.00 sales tax on food alone. (Based on $200,000.00 yearly food purchases.)

That’s is a huge tax increase Herman is asking Republicans to swallow.

GaBlue

September 26th, 2011
12:21 pm

Treating next year’s election like a horse race, and constantly focusing on who’s currently ahead (like most of the lame non-news “news” channels do in leiu of giving us news), is (in my opinion)just deflection for people who either have no clue how to solve our problems, or no wish at all to do so. No wonder nothing ever gets fixed!

Are any of the candidates in this straw poll actually working to solve anything at present? Or are they ALL acting like John McCain in ‘08? “I know how to get Bin Laden; I CAN get Bin Laden, and I will, but ONLY IF you elect me first. If you don’t, I’ll take my secret knowledge and go home!” (Uhhh, thanks Senator.) If they CARE so damn much about this country, how come they spend ALL their time and energy whining about what everyone else isn’t doing? Color me unimpressed.

td

September 26th, 2011
12:22 pm

DannyX

September 26th, 2011
12:14 pm

“4. Everyone knows the American public will not tolerate a Tea Party president, which it seems Republican voters want”

Who is the American public that will not support a Tea Party candidate Vs Obama and who are the Tea Party candidates? While you are at it define the difference between Tea Party and Conservative?

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
12:23 pm

DannyX….You buy $200,000 in food annually? Seriously?

Larry L. Clifton

September 26th, 2011
12:24 pm

If Perry or Romney had won in Florida Cain’s critics would have talked obituaries. Because Cain won handily NOW the Florida straw poll is just a fluke. Wake up and smell the coffee. Cain is for real and has a loyal following that is growing…exponentially. Get on board the Cain train. He is just what the DR. ordered for our great Republic. He is the REAL DEAL!

Dacula 1995

September 26th, 2011
12:25 pm

Larry…..sorry dude. Cain has some good ideas but will not get elected. He may make VP but that is doubtful as well.

td

September 26th, 2011
12:30 pm

GaBlue

September 26th, 2011
12:21 pm
Treating next year’s election like a horse race, and constantly focusing on who’s currently ahead (like most of the lame non-news “news” channels do in leiu of giving us news), is (in my opinion)just deflection for people who either have no clue how to solve our problems, or no wish at all to do so. No wonder nothing ever gets fixed!

Did we not do the same thing in 2008 with Hillary and Obama? I think I remember seeing a poll everyday about which one was ahead. I do not think I saw the main stream media carry very much negative about them like they are doing to the Republicans this year.