PPP poll: Newt Gingrich could lose Georgia to Barack Obama

Former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich would struggle to win his former home state of Georgia, and – even if he does – could lose it to President Barack Obama, according to the first significant poll of the state in the ’12 primary season.

And this only five months after a lopsided drumming of Democrats in the race for governor. And everything else.

The survey by Public Policy Polling of North Carolina says Gingrich’s favorables in Georgia stand at 39 percent. Forty-seven percent of voters polled have an unfavorable view of the potential candidate.

Thirty-one percent say Gingrich should take a shot at the White House, but 50 percent say he shouldn’t. And in a match-up with Obama, the president leads Gingrich, 46 to 45 percent – a statistically insignificant margin, so call it a tie.

The stats: 790 Georgia voters surveyed from March 31st to April 3rd. MOE is +/-3.5%.

Gingrich has said that, should he enter the race, he would base his campaign in Atlanta.

The analysis from PPP:

Obama looks like a pretty viable contender in the state next year regardless of who his Republican opponent is. 47% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 48% that disapprove. Those numbers suggest Georgia is probably the state Obama lost in 2008 that he has the best chance of flipping for 2012 because in the two states that he came closer to winning last time around — Missouri and Montana — his approval numbers are far worse at 43/52 and 41/54, respectively.

In addition to his lead over Gingrich, Obama also has an advantage over Georgia’s other home grown candidate, Herman Cain, at 44-39 and over Sarah Palin at 48-43. He trails both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney by three points at 48-45 and 46-43 respectively, but even those deficits represent an improvement from his 5 point loss in the state in 2008.

Georgia’s yet another generally Republican leaning state where voters are just not responding very positively to the leading names in the GOP Presidential picture. Only Huckabee has more voters in the state with a positive impression of him than a negative one at 48/33. In addition to Gingrich’s negative numbers Romney comes down at 37/41, Cain at 28/36, and Palin at 35/56.

Here’s the most provocative paragraph:

Even if Obama doesn’t end up winning in Georgia next year the vast differences in his support along age lines suggest Democrats should be competitive in the state in the years to come. Among voters under 65 Obama’s approval rating is a 52/42 spread. It’s only his horrid numbers with senior citizens at 27/68 that put his numbers in negative territory overall. As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two this state should start looking a lot ‘purpler’ than its red tinge in recent election cycles would suggest.

Much of this talk of Georgia being in play stems from a weekend New York Times interview of Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager. Over at the Washington Post, the Fix takes a more skeptical view:

Georgia is more deep South than new South, and you see that when you analyze the white vote. While 35 percent of white voters in North Carolina voted for Obama, just 23 percent of white voters in Georgia did, according to exit polls. That number is more on-par with a state like South Carolina (26 percent of white vote) and closer to Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi — where Obama took high teens of the white vote — than North Carolina and Virginia.

While white voters in Georgia supported Obama more than in some other Deep South states, it’s hard to win a state when the state’s largest demographic group votes against you three-to-one. Georgia remains a majority-white state, and Obama would need more white votes, in addition to the growing black vote.

- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider

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84 comments Add your comment

Engineer

April 5th, 2011
2:05 pm

Not a big surprise considering the flip-flopping on the issues we’ve seen from Newt make John Kerry look like a straight shooter.

Still GA

April 5th, 2011
2:14 pm

It doesn’t matter. Ga will vote white no matter what

Clinton "Skink" Tyree

April 5th, 2011
2:16 pm

The current field of GOP hopefuls is pathetic. If they are to have a chance, a new face must come forward.

Gingrich stands about as much chance as I do, but the wealthy and large corporations have sent millions of dollars to his PACs and he’s determined to spend it on one massive ego trip that will take him around the country on someone else’s dime, but won’t come anywhere near the White House.

He’ll have a short honeymoon, but if he begins to gain traction which I don’t believe he will, his opponents will spit him out like a sunflower seed recounting his failed political career and serial womanizing.

Newt is very bright, but he’s just not likeable and electable!

Douglas

April 5th, 2011
2:19 pm

They should see how Newt does in Ohio verses Barry. After all, that’s his REAL home state. (At least that’s what Newt’s birth cirtificate would say — IF HE’D SHOW IT (which he won’t because he’s REALLY from Ceti Alpha Five (aka Menkar) in the consellation Cetus.

But I digress…

TRUTH

April 5th, 2011
2:21 pm

That’s a pure and honest statement @Still GA 2:14 pm. I couldn’t agree more and its sad that such bigotry is still practiced. But you, sir/madam, have hit the nail on the proverbial head. I applaud your honesty. Now media pundits and columnist, write a blog about that!

Besides, Newt Gingrich….really?! Might as well offer up Nathan Deal….

Newt and Barack Neck and Neck in GA

April 5th, 2011
2:23 pm

[...] H/T Jim Galloway, Political Insider   If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! [...]

Douglas

April 5th, 2011
2:24 pm

It would seem that this polling outfit is looking at some paralell-universe Georgia rather than this one. Or did they not notice the drubbing the Dems took last fall?

I used to respect Newt, but his flip-flop on the Lybian T-Sandwich just made him out to be a shrill shill. He ain’t gettin no vote from me.

Ric

April 5th, 2011
2:27 pm

Newt Gingrich is a lot like Jimmy Carter in the sense that the rest of America doesn’t realize that Georgians don’t take him seriously, because we’ve seen him first-hand.

Whenever Gingrich and Carter do or say something absurd, Georgians treat them like the crazy uncle at the family reunion.

Mike

April 5th, 2011
2:29 pm

@Still GA 2:14 pm is probably right. I guess all in all this state and country has not progressed very much over the years. You folks do realize this country is turning darker everyday. When that happens, what are you going to do? And who will you blame all the problems of this country on?

Randolph Philips

April 5th, 2011
2:35 pm

If by some mishap, Republicans nominate Newt Gingrich as their Presidential Candidate next year, Georgia will likely still go Republican for President.

Remember, rather than vote for Obama in 2008, Georgians voted for John McCain over Obama by a comfortable margin, and Gingrich has about the same views as McCain–always ready for a new war, amnesty for illegals, and exporting jobs and industry from the US to China and elsewhere. Kinda like Obama in fact, except maybe for wartime readiness (though Obama is still everywhre he said he wanted to leave–plus Libya).

As for the new census figures, they mainly show there’s a lot of illegal immigrants in Georgia, and Obama’s plan to change the electorate in order to get elected may result in some of them being fraudulently registered to vote, most of them won’t be able to vote. Georgia will go Republican next year–even with Newt.

hollywould

April 5th, 2011
2:40 pm

Mike, will you be happy when America is a total ghetto?

OneFreeMan

April 5th, 2011
2:54 pm

Newt won’t lose to The President in Georgia, but nationally he doesn’t stand a chance just like the rest of the GOP hopefuls.

Jesus

April 5th, 2011
3:01 pm

Much of Georgia is already a ghetto, albeit a white one with an obesity and meth problem.

Low-rent, white, meth-head, ignorant, inbred trash is the real problem – good for nothing but fluffing wealthy republicans.

Another Cynic

April 5th, 2011
3:14 pm

“As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two…..”

Yes… this may be a terrible thing to say but our country will be much better off when the majority of these people eventually “die out”. Whites AND Blacks who grew up in the south during this era just can’t seem to find a way to change their views, despite all of the changes & progress following the civil rights era. Unfortunately, racism will always be a topic in this country but it appears the majority of younger Americans are more capable of looking at an individual’s character vs. his/her color.

Let’s just hope they can find a way to make politicians work FOR the people.

Concerned Voter

April 5th, 2011
3:16 pm

I hope Georgia will not embarrass itself by choosing Gingrich as their Republican presidential nominee. Voting for Obama doesn’t make us ghetto. It shows our wisdom that integrity still matters. Why is it that so many are afraid of Obama’s intellect and resort to the ghetto accusations? Obama would no more be comfortable in a ghetto-thug situation than the holier-than-thou whites who tout patriotism and buy U.S.A. when it is convenient for them to do so.

Loran, Whatayagot?

April 5th, 2011
3:20 pm

While there is and always will be some prejudice (different from racism) in Georgia, and just because white people didn’t vote for Obama doesn’t mean they object to his heritage. His message is radical Democrat and socialistic. Georgia conservatives(majority)would vote enthusiastically for Herman Cain if he was the nominee. People need to quit assuming based on the past. It’s lazy and ignorant. Reality continues to be a dynamic situation.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

April 5th, 2011
3:25 pm

I tend to agree that when the last of the baby boomers dies off, the US will take a major lurch to the right. And no, your not getting all your SS and medicare paid for by my generation, even if you think you are. We simply will not comply with higher taxation.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

April 5th, 2011
3:28 pm

I will also be glad when Jimmy carter and Joseph Lowery are gone. Actually suing to try to reverse a more affluent population escaping the captivity of the inner city budget..tisk. Now even the leftards can see what Lowery and the civil rights pimps really want is for white dollars to subsidize black areas..income redistribution.

TrishaDishaWarEagle

April 5th, 2011
3:33 pm

And btw..Obama will not win GA..and it has everything to do with his tax and spend ideology. Most americans want government to be smaller, cost less, and be less intrusive in our lives.

Last Man Standing

April 5th, 2011
3:44 pm

Concerned Voter:

“Voting for Obama doesn’t make us ghetto. It shows our wisdom that integrity still matters.”

Exactly which planet do you call home? I can tell by the words you use that the democrats have nailed you with the Hussein Ray Gun. They’ve got you using their catchy words such as “wisdom” and “Integrity”, two commodities democrats do not have.

Have another sip of the Kool-Aid. Everything will be fine . . .

Centrist

April 5th, 2011
3:45 pm

The PPP is notoriously inaccurate and liberal.

Obama will not waste his campaign $$ on Georgia – he has no chance. Liberal wishful thinking is not going to sway his savvy campaign operatives.

Last Man Standing

April 5th, 2011
3:48 pm

Loran, Whatayagot?:

Great post! If Herman Cain gets the nomination, I shall happily cast my vote for him. In fact, it would be the first time in a long time that I actually voted FOR someone instead of voting AGAINST someone!

td

April 5th, 2011
3:51 pm

Georgia is a conservative state. It was a conservative state when run by Democrats and it is still a conservative state now. Obama set of electors WILL NOT win in Georgia if they run against Newt, Sarah or anyone else the Republicans run. This is not a black, white issue but is one truly about Philosophy. I would be on here saying the same thing and it would be true if Hillary would have won n 08.

dmcsga

April 5th, 2011
3:53 pm

As long as I have a job, I couldn’t care about the rest of the nation because the more I read about the comments it makes me more or or less care about my fellow people because they are so damn ignorant and deserve all the bad stuff that they are voting and advocating for.

Just Wait

April 5th, 2011
3:59 pm

@Tyree said it best that there are NO viable Republican candidates. Gingrich is a leftover from a 90’s science project in DC that ultimately failed because Republicans don’t even like themselves. Cain sure sounds good to talk, but do you REALLY want someone who has never held any office before. Even the twit from Alaska had been elected, unbelievably.

And now the race card comes out of the closet door. And don’t wait for a generation to die off for this to go away. Ain’t gonna happen that soon.

hollywould

April 5th, 2011
4:06 pm

Jesus, it is your brothers bringing the meth in.

root4au

April 5th, 2011
4:06 pm

Any republican candidate would be better than the most radical, liberal president that has ever stepped foot in the white house.

Troglodyke

April 5th, 2011
4:10 pm

Obama won’t win GA. This is a conservative state that skews red and male, no matter what serial womanizing flip-flopper is on the Republican ballot.

Newt’s hypocrisy is unbelieveable. He thinks his past shouldn’t matter, and that gays are ruining marriage. WTF? But those Repubs will happily vote for him, because “anything’s better than that socialist Obama.”

For all the hatred ya’ll have of Obama, you’d think your beloved Republican party could put up someone who could actually beat him. But all you can come up with are fools who talk a big game about the Constitution, but don’t respect the separation of church and state and will kowtow to the Religious Reich. It’s pathetic.

Back to Bama

April 5th, 2011
4:10 pm

It amazes that people like Ms.TrishaDishaWar Eagle know so much about left wingers or should I say minorities. I don’t know anyone in my circle of friends who receives welfare and most of you right wingers have no minorities as friends. I am wondering have you done research or study groups to support your rationale. I will say that most urban cities have there challenges with crime, poverty, etc. It’s not wise to assume that everyone who looks like you have the same values or standards of living. The thing with Southerns is far too many assumptions which makes us look very silly to the rest to the world. My last couple of visits to WalMart have been interesting to see women of the majority using WIC vouchers. I was floored happened twice in the month of March, so stop with all the drama and race baiting. If and when this ship sinks we will all go down together doesn’t matter as we will have no control. I say vote for the candidate of your choice and keep it movin or run for public office if your ideas are better.

Mike

April 5th, 2011
4:12 pm

“As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two this state should start looking a lot ‘purpler’ than its red tinge in recent election cycles would suggest.”

So this is why Roy Barnes got spanked last election, it was a bunch of redneck segregationists, ya that’s the ticket.

ricardus

April 5th, 2011
4:21 pm

Gingrich may have his baggage, but voters will carry his baggage rather than Obama’s. There are still enough voters in georgia with a brain and love of country.
Despite Gingrich’s global ideas and personal moral issues, he is far less dangerous to Americans’ freedom. At least Newt is an American both in birth and in patriotism.

jconservative

April 5th, 2011
4:21 pm

“Any republican candidate would be better than the most radical, liberal president that has ever stepped foot in the white house.”

As a historical note, Thomas Jefferson in one of his letters said he had to keep reminding John Adams that they were the “radical liberals” of their time.

DannyX

April 5th, 2011
4:24 pm

Herman Cain can’t win an election in Georgia, proven fact.

Wonder why?

RetiredSoldier

April 5th, 2011
4:24 pm

Let’s see if I have this correct, Ga is in play if Newt is the candidate. Ga, the state w/ a Rep Gov, overwhelming Rep legislature, 2 Rep senators and a large majority of the congressmen. In addition the last time it voted Dem for Pres was 1992. Just for good measure we are still in a recession, high unemployment, huge national debt and three wars?

Yep, I REALLY think Obama will carry GA. Would could you liberals be drinking?

Rick

April 5th, 2011
4:25 pm

All that Chicken Little talk makes the Republican Party look like they have no vision, nor faith in the American people. Did any of those predictions for the last election turn out to be accurate? We still have our guns, nobody took them away, we got those tax cuts extended. We are still pooring billions into wars (our military industry stocks values are still up), and Gates is still there, so our country did not turn out to be weak on foreign affars, after Obama went in, afterall. Now what for the future? The Republican Party needs to destroy the strong voice and power of your opposition; Mission, destroy labor unions. Another Mission: make sure no one gets medical care, who cannot afford it, unless it is a charitable act from someone in the private sector. Mission: destroy Medicare, Not even the elderly will be able to afford health insurance, a decade from now, when Republicans officially put them on their ice float voucher system. Jungle rule is where the Republican Party wants to take us. At least Republicans have the nerve to lay it out there. And, if that is what you want, the next election decides if America is going to remain an exceptional country, a kind nation, filled with hopes and dreams or one drenched in fear.

td

April 5th, 2011
4:28 pm

Back to Bama

April 5th, 2011
4:10 pm

“so much about left wingers or should I say minorities.”

I am not speaking fro Trisha but I can tell you that I am not upset about the “minorities”. I understand that you all have been brainwashed and put on the plantation by the White communist to do there bidding. You have been told for generations that government is the only way you will be truly free by the communist, by the churches and by the few race pimps.

I hate the minorities White communist masters. They have ruined the work ethic of at least 2 generations of a large part of the minority community, they have ruined the family structure, the morals and the ethics. Now for the past 20 years they have been working on the white community to put them on the plantation too. The White masters are the root cause of the problem and they must be stopped, rooted out and banished forever. I pray everyday that the minority community will in mass wake up and throw off the yoke and become the strong vibrant community that they deserve to be. This would be the final nail in the coffin for the communist and we the people could finally get rid of this evil.

JustMe

April 5th, 2011
4:32 pm

I still have a hard time believing Georgia would vote for Obama … even if it is Newt running on the GOP ticket. Georgia is so red to the point that we look like complete and total idiots considering that we time and time again vote for GOP’ers who are also complete and total idiots.

Tealiban Party

April 5th, 2011
4:33 pm

What the conservatives want is the status quo. They are afraid of change, which is evident in their constant fear propaganda. What the cons need to realize is that the world is changing, and the USA needs to change too in order to remain the leader of the world. An old 90’s unsuccessful adulterer has-been is NOT going to help the USA lead in today’s world.

JustMe

April 5th, 2011
4:39 pm

At least Newt is an American both in birth and in patriotism.

Oh give me a break. Are you really going to play the birther card? Get over it – its been proven time and time again that he was born in America. And it’s fools like you that make Georgia still look like its living in the 18th century.

gm

April 5th, 2011
4:40 pm

Of course Georgia are going to do what they have been doing for the last 8 years, vote against there interest, do you think racist southerners like Ms, Al, Ky, Wv, Sc are going vote for Obama? this is not football or basketball, that is the only time these people have respect for black males, these idiots rather have Rep destroy America then vote for someone that has taken us out the worst economy in 40 years.
Newt is a joke he along with the rest of the Rep idiots are only worried about birth certificates, and is the President a muslim, you know real issues.

Cutty

April 5th, 2011
4:41 pm

Trisha and td can speak as much as they want about minorities. On the internet. They would never say anything of the sort to a minorities face. Hell, I triple dog dare them to do it. Get the taste slapped out their mouths. Lol

Einsteindawg

April 5th, 2011
4:47 pm

Doesn’t matter the color, folks are tired of electing community organizers, lawyers, trust-fund babies, and career politicians to run the biggest business in the world (in the ground). The next president won’t be a one of these, but a business-savvy person to right the ship. It doesn’t take “me” to see where our country is headed with inept leadership…at all levels.

Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights.....

April 5th, 2011
4:48 pm

Yet another masterfully written piece of WISHFUL THINKING from our left-leaning buddies at the AJC! “Newt Gingrich could lose Georgia to Barack Obama”….Man! What have you guys up there at the “Dunwoody Journal Constitution” been smoking? Because whatever it is, I sure would like some of it because it sounds REALLY GOOD. I’m not saying that Obama wouldn’t be somewhat competitive in Georgia in 2012, but with all of the conservatives there are here that would turn out in droves just to vote against him, Obama couldn’t overcome that margin of voters to defeat an animal or inanimate object, much less, Newt Gingrich. Though it never hurts to have a healthy IMAGINATION, so keep dreaming AJC…

Ga Values

April 5th, 2011
4:50 pm

Newt Gingrich got Bill Clinton re elected, if nominated he’ll get OBAMA re elected. I hate Obama but he is less bad than Newt Gingrich.

changingcolors

April 5th, 2011
4:52 pm

Georgia is the home of the racist white majority regime. Hate has been taught here and throughout the rest of America, China, India, Austrailia, New Zealand, CANada, South Africa by WHITE PEOPLE. You claim to be christains but have done the work of the DEVIL AND BEEN DEVILISH TO OTHERS FOR THE last 500 years. Run and tell that!!!! That is a fact.

fox news hater

April 5th, 2011
4:59 pm

i will never vote for hypocrite newt gingrich…my vote goes TO PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA..the south is now browner with more liberal whites,blacks(have moved to the south in record numbers)..hispanics hate republicans as well as blacks..look for our president to regain the white house in 2012..no one else has the experience and isnt as highly educated and articulate as PRESIDENT OBAMA…THIS WHITE GEORGIA SOUTHERN REDNECK WILL GO FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA

RetiredSoldier

April 5th, 2011
5:01 pm

Changing-

The only “hate” I see here is what you just wrote. Get a life.

sam

April 5th, 2011
5:01 pm

Once again the media is trying to make it about race. When someone can’t stand on his/her issues, philosophies, and capabilities then call the electorate racists or bigots. Granted there are some who don’t like him because he’s black but there are just as many who voted for him just because he’s black. The rest of us vote on merit and we don’t like him because he’s way too liberal, too much of a Marxists, and too much of a secular humanists.

south of the gnatline

April 5th, 2011
5:02 pm

Uh-oh. Newt’s political passion fires are being stoked. That current wife better watch out.