One of the most startling Georgia numbers to come out the U.S. Census Bureau data dump last week was the 120,000 people who suddenly went missing in the city of Atlanta.
The bureau’s 2009 estimate for the city was 540,922 – reflecting what was thought to be an influx of new young residents attempting to escape a grinding suburban commute.
Instead, the official 2010 number for the city of Atlanta is 420,003. Not even close to the half-million mark. The ’09 estimate was off by 22 percent. Was it the home mortgage crisis? The collapse of the condo market?
That’s the question more than one politico will be asking this week.
Here’s how the census undercount broke down in metro Atlanta’s top five counties:
– Clayton: 2009 estimate of 275,772; 2010 Census count of 259,424. Gap: -16,348 or 6 percent;
– Cobb: 2009 estimate of 714,692; 2010 Census count of 688,078. Gap: -26,614 or 3.7 percent.
– DeKalb: 2009 estimate of 747,274; 2010 Census count of 691,893. Gap: -55,381 or 7 percent;
– Fulton: 2009 estimate of 1,033,756; 2010 Census count of 920,581. Gap: -113,175 or 11 percent;
– And Gwinnett: 2009 estimate of 808,167; 2010 Census count of 805,321. Gap: -2,846 or .3 percent.
The undercount in metro Atlanta could be good news for south Georgia’s political clout. For instance, number-crunchers were anticipating that growth in metro Atlanta would require a shift of five House districts out of south Georgia. Now, only four may move.
- By Jim Galloway, Political Insider
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80 comments Add your comment
Eddie
March 21st, 2011
7:18 pm
I used to LOVE Atlanta until I actually started living in it. After experiencing life in cities such as Houston, Chicago and even Sydney Australia for a couple of months I learned that Atlanta may be the most overrated, dysfunctional, congested, poorly planned city in the history of the world.
People are probably leaving due to the God awful traffic and the HORRIBLE and painfully simple but yet extremely inneffecient metro system ever!
How can you call Atlanta a “major” city when there is only one Interstate that goes through the city and to the airport???
After returning to Atlanta from a trip to another city, one can’t help but feel a sense of depression simply because of the ineptitude of city planners and the realization that nothing can be done now…
John
March 21st, 2011
7:22 pm
People need to realize that their “precious” suburbs would not even exists if it was not for the city of Atlanta. Atlanta is a great city with numerous amenties. Sure it’s more expensive than the burbs, but that’s the price your pay for these amenties. No matter what people say, Atlanta will continue to grow and prosper.
Where did Atlanta go? | Conservative GA
March 21st, 2011
7:25 pm
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SOGA
March 21st, 2011
7:28 pm
DannyX, I’m sure there are more tax dollars collected outside the beltway than in but you Atlanta people think that it is your money. Sounds like entitlement mentality to me!
Damned Yankee
March 21st, 2011
7:35 pm
GaBlue, I’ve been here goin’ on 24 years and have foresaken my Yankee ways in favour of the more genteel ways of my wonderful friends and neighbors. Ah have foresaken the commute, though Ah live in Roswell. Ah AIN’T the problem and take umbrage with your comment
Jacob Alperin-Sheriff
March 21st, 2011
7:37 pm
There was a pretty clear undercount of the city of Atlanta. No other 100,000+ city was off from the 2009 estimates by half that much. http://hatthief.blogspot.com/2011/03/atlanta-2010-census-population-seems-to.html
Old South
March 21st, 2011
7:38 pm
Eddie, how right you are. At one point Atlanta attracted intelligent and accomplished people, primarily looking to move up a big company ladder. Today it is attractive to what might be described as economic refugees from the Post-Industrial north. Very different situation. The trouble is so much of this country is in severe decline that as bad as Atlanta is (and it IS bad) many people’s quality of life will increase..
Jason
March 21st, 2011
8:08 pm
You really can’t tell anything until the population numbers are broken down by demographics. Atlanta torn down every last housing project and the vast majority of its senior highrises. There are quite a few neighborhoods where the poor got priced out. A childless couple living in a house in Kirkwood that use to hold an extended family of eight is going to cause population numbers to drop. It’ll be interesting to see how much change there has been in the various economic groups over the past ten years. Anyone who has been here that long can see the changes.
Dirty Dawg
March 21st, 2011
8:12 pm
Eddie…Houston? You’re sh***n’ me, right? And the last time I looked we had three, count ‘em, three Interstates passing through town – not that that should be an indicator. I moved out of Cobb County and into Atlanta about ten years ago…about the time Cobb decided to question Evolution in science education. Cobb County had gotten so bad that the Churches were the leaders in prejudicial politics…not exactly my idea of a Christian outlook.
The problem with what’s been happening here is that racism has felt that the coast was clear to rear it’s ugly head again and decided to do everything it could to stifle the City in every way possible – but particularly in transportation. Somehow it seems that Sam Massell may have been right when he proclaimed that ‘Atlanta was a city too young to die.’, when it was about to elect it’s first black Mayor. However the reason he may have been right wasn’t because of black leadership, it was because a racist-driven, predominately white, surrounding set of counties and state legislature has decided to ‘kill the Golden Goose’, cause it’s feathers were no longer the ‘correct’ color. Well you folks can be proud, you’ve indeed managed to douse the fire of enthusiasm and pride that marked what this city possessed for decades with your incessant harping about things that are wrong instead of looking for the good and/or working to make it better.
I will say that the last time projected numbers changed so dramatically around here, we ended up with our first Republican Governor (how’d that work out for you?) and a Republican Senator that decided to throw a war-hero under the armored personnel vehicle in order to get in…thanks Diebold, one day we’re gonna get you for that.
I don’t know how or why these numbers changed so, but I’m betting that ‘the fix is in’ for continued dominance of a prejudice-driven State Government.
BigAl
March 21st, 2011
8:18 pm
GaBlue – amen brother….
Serious Robuck
March 21st, 2011
8:23 pm
Last Man, please don’t come back!!! We don’t miss you AT ALL!!!
It’s interesting to me that the 2009 estimate for Georgia was so far off the official count for 2010. The estimate for North Carolina, the state that is our closest demographic match, was right on target.
I traveled a lot around the country in 2010. There were major public efforts virtually everywhere to urge the public to be counted in the census. I never saw anything here except a portable billboard in Flowery Branch. Ole Sonny knew what he wasn’t doing. An accurate count would play havoc for the good ole boys.
Amy in the ATL
March 21st, 2011
8:36 pm
I do live in the city, have a family, and am surrounded by lots of other nice, educated, professional families who like the proximity to work, parks, entertainment, non-chain restaurants, etc. If you look at the map of intown Atlanta, the established and/or trendy neighborhoods all GAINED population. The decline came in the poorer neighborhoods in the South, and my guess is a lot of that is probably due to the city’s program of demolishing the housing projects. That would also explain the demographic shift.
There is a sickness in GA
March 21st, 2011
9:03 pm
People need to chill out. My guess is that the US Census bungled some numbers. I don’t know what the process for appeal is, but I have read that Mayor Reed, and I assume others, are indeed talking to the US census about this situation.
I live in Atlanta, I don’t like it very much but am stuck here now as it is too expensive to relocated anywhere else. I will say this for the city though, it has the best major metro weather of any place outside of SoCal.
To those of you talking about how great the OTP is, there is no amount of money you could pay me to move out there. I work in Cobb and see the traffic those poor SOBs have to fight every day just so they can live in some poorly constructed, soulless, glorified sub-division. Hell no, not for me. Also, you people who like to talk about how dangerous the ATL is are clueless. Yes, for the last 30 years Atlanta has had a higher crime rate than other major urban settings. However, for the last decade crime in the city has declined dramatically per the FBI which tracks these things. You most likely perceive that the city is still so dangerous, because your butts are glued to local news broadcasts which hype what violence there is to get better ratings.
Last Man Standing
March 21st, 2011
9:03 pm
Eddie:
If I had lived in Houston, even I would think that Atlanta was a ’step up’ from that hell hole! Even if they worked at it, Atlanta could never match Houston for crime! Back in the 70’s, Houston was begging for police officers with experience and paying very well to get them. They had a crime problem even then and it has gotten significantly worse. That problem wasn’t helped by all the thugs that moved there after Katriba blew them out of New Orleans.
Go on back to Chicago and live in a truly corrupt city, or move back to Houston.
Y’all come back, ya hear?
Snoozie
March 21st, 2011
9:18 pm
Alas the seeds of Atlanta’s downfall were planted 50 years ago when the decision was made to disect the heart of the city with three major freeways. This terrible decision made it too easy for people to abandon the once vibrant and safe community to live in the far flung suburbs. The city naturally decayed from neglect and the freeways have become massive concrete, smog belching no mans lands that divide whats left of the citizenry into disconnected pockets of urban blight.
The Olympics exposed this blight to the world and now the boosterism that once fueled the hype driven economy has all but ceased.
Add in the crime, decaying infrastructure, traffic congestion, poorly planned mass transit, and its easy to predict Atlanta may be on the way to becoming the Detroit of the South.
We need inspired leadership to undo the damage this city has suffered over the last 50 years. My suggestion would be to bury the dingy freeways running thru the city in tunnels, and reconnect the neighborhoods as they were pre 1960.
transplant
March 21st, 2011
10:12 pm
I heart suburban sprawl!
sam
March 21st, 2011
10:25 pm
i been otp and itp, don’t make no diff to me, catch as catch can, as god as my witness, the southern woman is the best, fo’ sho’
Intown
March 21st, 2011
10:53 pm
WTF? This is a travesty!
rooster
March 22nd, 2011
1:15 am
OK, again, the Detroit analogy is just wrong. Atlanta and Detroit are about as different as any two large cities. Detroit is a hyper-segregated metro area. Inner city 80% black, surrounding counties 80-90% not black. Atlanta’s black population is much less concentrated. Only about 1 in every 6 or 7 blacks in metro Atlanta lives inside the city limits. There is far greater day-to-day proximity between whites and blacks here, in the burbs as well as intown.
There is a strong correlation nationally between the relative size of a black population in a metro area, and the degree to which that population is residentially segregated. In 2000, there were 2 metros which did not fit the correlation – Washington and Atlanta. Both were less residentially segregated than all other metro areas with black population shares of 20% or greater. Detroit was the most residentially segregated metro in the nation (followed by Chicago and New York, incidentally). Atlanta was not in the top ten. (segregation study by the Mumford center – an urban studies unit of the State University of New York – based on 2000 census data)
Now, Atlanta could have become more segregated in the last 10 years. We can’t assume that history is linear. When the Mumford center and others parse the 2010 census data, it may turn out that metro Atlanta has gotten closer to the national tendency for largest black populations to be the most segregated. We should hope that it continues to be an exception. But we can be sure that it willl never be “another Detroit”.
As for the downtown connector, I don’t see a whole lot of blight, if you don’t count that stupid torch just north of the Varsity. Along the connector we have seen a defunct steel mill replaced by a major mixed-use development, the emptiness at Spring and 5th replaced by the west campus of Georgia Tech, undeveloped land north of 10th filled with Turner networks buidlings, a depressing and dangerous housing project replaced by dorms and mixed-income housing. This is not blight. You may not like it, but it is not blight. I don’t mean to say that the configuration of the connector caused any positive changes, just that it has not prevented large-scale improvements in the area, even right alongside the roadway. If you want to think about freeways breaking up the city in a worse way, imagine 75 and 85 runnning separately, one on the west side, one on the east. Imagine Briarcliff being a freeway (85) with an exit at Ponce. No Druid Hills, no Little Five Points, no Poncey-Highland as we know them. As it is, 75 and 85 run together in the commercial center of the city. They do less damage to neighborhoods than any alternative. No, the connector is a problem for those who are on it, not so much for those up on the surface streets.
Brother Jeff
March 22nd, 2011
1:19 am
Has anyone ever realized that Atlanta is the only city everyone claims but noone lives in. Lol. The problems of Atlanta are many no political clout in the state government. No true transportational planning and most of all NO JOBS! When i lived in Atlanta all the jobs were in the suburbs. Lol. Now people say crime is a big problem in Atlanta it is but Atlanta has to have the most liberal gun laws of any major cities! Guns should never be less expensive than a book but in Atlanta it is. For the person who asks who retires to the north AFFLUENT PEOPLE DO! To fix Atlanta you need to fix georgia which starts with education and continues with education which hopefully will lead to competent leadership. Stop blaming people from other places for your incompetance because all of the leaders are home grown.
C.G.
March 22nd, 2011
2:52 am
A lot of these comments are hardcore bashing Atlanta and not even focusing on the census numbers – the main point of the article. Sometimes people need to sit back and understand that Atlanta is the reason there are jobs in Cobb, Perimeter, and Gwinnett. They all have self-sustaining job markets now, but they did not start that way. Also, what is all this about crime increases. Crime, specifically violent crime, is way lower in Atlanta than it was in the crazy days of the 90’s.
I think there is just a different flavor of living when you compare the different suburbs and Atlanta. They each provide a different lifestyle for people and families to choose. By the same token, if you only compared the suburbs, I’m sure people in Peachtree City would say they would never live in Alpharetta because of all the traffic. North Fulton should really get off their high horse. They are quickly urbanizing and becoming more densely populated. With dense populations comes crime and numerous difficulties.
@Rooster, I agree with you that Atlanta will never be a Detroit but it most certainly has nothing to do with a high or low concentration of African Americans. Detroit’s economy was/is not diverse. Most jobs were involved in the steel and car industry. These industries were outsourcing and downsizing for years, and when the housing bubble hit, the slow decaying facade holding Detroit together finally cracked and crumbled. This will not occur in Atlanta because of Atlanta’s very diverse economy.
Lastly, I know there are problems in Atlanta and because of that I am going to make sure that I am involved in my neighborhood, county, and region. All levels matter. If the metro area could act as one and attack regional issues we would be helping our neighborhoods, counties, and regions all at the same time. I won’t tell anyone to move somewhere else or anything, I would only ask that you get involved and try to help. There are so many great things going on in our region…if we simply worked with each other the sky is the limit.
Alright, I’m sleepy….
debrabell77
March 22nd, 2011
5:40 am
After what seemed like a lifetime of thirty-Year adjustable-rate mortgages, with monthly mortgage payments going up all the time, The “Mortgage Refinance 123″ helped me to lock in a great low fixed rate of 3.16%, helping me to guarantee myself the ability to always make my mortgage payment on time with money to spare.
A Conservative Voice
March 22nd, 2011
8:57 am
You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet…….wait until the APS is de-certified…….there’s gonna be a mass exodus like you’re never seen before anywhere, anytime and it’s gonna spread to neighboring counties as well, making the whole metro area one of the most depressed areas in the country. Businesses will move out as well, bankruptcies will soar, foreclosures will be a dime a dozen…..it’s gonna be epic; however, predictions are also a dime a dozen
Matt
March 22nd, 2011
10:34 am
@Cliff – I’m glad someone in these comments still can see the good in Atlanta. As a lifelong GA boy and resident of Atlanta since 1995, I appreciate everything about this city. Sure it has problems but I think it is a city on the verge of great things! The beltline is a huge step and you are seeing many intown neighborhoods becoming revitalized with new businesses and life that they haven’t seen in years.
I’m really amazed at all of the pessimists on here and if they think Atlanta is so bad then leave. Enjoy your sprawl and strip malls, glued to your 500 channels, never knowing your neighbors while you have to drive EVERYWHERE because sidewalks are scary!
A Conservative Voice
March 22nd, 2011
10:52 am
@Matt
March 22nd, 2011
10:34 am
never knowing your neighbors while you have to drive EVERYWHERE because sidewalks are scary!
Matt – It’s not the sidewalks that scare me – it’s what’s crawling on the sidewalks that’s scary.
Eddie
March 22nd, 2011
5:35 pm
Dirty Dawg and Last Man Standing: no where in comment did i mention anything about crime/ I’ll agree with you that crime in Houston and Chicago is probably worse than Atlanta.
What I did comment about was the congestion, traffic and poor planning/layout of the city. Houston has a plethra of highways that connect the city and allow people to get to their destination, along with the advanced access roads, tollways and HOVs. Not to mention it is the 4th largest city in the US. God forbid an accident happens on the connector going North and traffic is backed. There is no other highway to take so you have no choice but to wait…
And the public transit system in Chicago is one of the best in the US
Key to Growth is Commerce. And for Commerce to be successful there needs to be efficient Transportation
Dirty Dawg
March 23rd, 2011
4:12 am
Eddie, Eddie, Eddie…you are shi**in us, ain’t ya’? My recollection of Houston was spending an hour and a half trying to get through town on I-10. You may have gotten around Houston, just like I can get around Atlanta, regardless of the time of day, but I assure you they don’t have any advantage on us on anything – after all it is Texas. As for Chicago, you’re talking about one of the great cities int he world, so to compare us to them is tough. And if you didn’t know, for decades MARTA was rated the ‘most respected’ rapid transit system in the country by it’s peers….then the State of Georgia and the surrounding counties decided to put a strangle hold on the system and have allowed it to become a whipping boy for all things racial.
Seat belter
March 23rd, 2011
4:17 pm
With all due respect, I would flee the City of Atlanta myself.
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