Hours after a poll by The Hill newspaper in Washington showed him 13 points behind, U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall, D-Macon, released an internal poll that showed him with a 3-point lead over Republican Austin Scott.
Marshall says the race is a 47-44 contest, with 9 percent undecided. But the Democratic incumbent admits that the race will “come down to the wire.”
Read the Marshall poll memo here. The survey was conducted Oct. 17-19 – a few days earlier than the Hill poll.
One significant turnout: The Hill poll assumes a 23 percent African-American turnout; the Marshall survey is based on 26 percent turnout.
From a polling memo from the Marshall camapgin, by The Mellman Group:
Marshall is holding his base (87% among Democrats) and garners significant crossover support from Republicans (19%). On the other side, Scott is getting 73% of the Republican vote. Marshall has a slight 5-point edge among independents (45% to 40%). And though Scott holds a large lead among white voters (57% to 32%), Marshall garnes overwhelming support from African-Americans (84% to 10%) who comprise 26% of voters in the District. This 26% African-American turnout is the same percentage Marshall won with his narrow 2006 victory.
In short, the Congressional election in Georgia’s 8th District is going to come down to the wire.