Jim Marshall: His own poll shows him ahead — but he admits the race will be ‘down to the wire’

Hours after a poll by The Hill newspaper in Washington showed him 13 points behind, U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall, D-Macon, released an internal poll that showed him with a 3-point lead over Republican Austin Scott.

Marshall says the race is a 47-44 contest, with 9 percent undecided. But the Democratic incumbent admits that the race will “come down to the wire.”

Read the Marshall poll memo here. The survey was conducted Oct. 17-19 – a few days earlier than the Hill poll.

One significant turnout: The Hill poll assumes a 23 percent African-American turnout; the Marshall survey is based on 26 percent turnout.

From a polling memo from the Marshall camapgin, by The Mellman Group:

Marshall is holding his base (87% among Democrats) and garners significant crossover support from Republicans (19%). On the other side, Scott is getting 73% of the Republican vote. Marshall has a slight 5-point edge among independents (45% to 40%). And though Scott holds a large lead among white voters (57% to 32%), Marshall garnes overwhelming support from African-Americans (84% to 10%) who comprise 26% of voters in the District. This 26% African-American turnout is the same percentage Marshall won with his narrow 2006 victory.

In short, the Congressional election in Georgia’s 8th District is going to come down to the wire.

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31 comments Add your comment

Here's hoping

October 27th, 2010
2:17 pm

The Hill poll did seem a bit extreme.

Ken in Eastman

October 27th, 2010
2:18 pm

Will Marshall release his polling assumptions (e.g. percentage of Democrats, percentage of Independents, etc.)? Based on what I see down here Marshall is trailing.

Concerned for Jim...

October 27th, 2010
2:18 pm

Mellman Group does have some pretty bad internal polls in Georgia – I remember Mellman had current state Democratic Party Chair Jane Kidd up by almost double digits in her 2006 state senate race going into Election Day and it ended up being the opposite result. check your crosstabs everyone!

Melb

October 27th, 2010
2:18 pm

VOTE OUT THE CORRUPTION CREW: DEAL, CAGLE, HUDGENS, AND BUTLER!!

dorothy stapen

October 27th, 2010
2:21 pm

I’m with Melb.

keith

October 27th, 2010
2:21 pm

Its hard to believe that Marshall is polling in the 30s with the kind of republican support he has. It will come down to the African-American Vote, as well as independents. This seems like a more accurate picture than the one The Hill, who I greatly respect pit out this morning.

george

October 27th, 2010
2:56 pm

Jim Marshall is full of shat!!! I’m betting he loses by at least 10%. He’s a drowning man grasping for straws, putting all of his hopes on black voters. They’re not turning out in near the numbers of 2008. I just voted about two hours ago and there is no comparison.

lmno

October 27th, 2010
3:09 pm

“The Hill poll assumes a 23 percent African-American turnout; the Marshall survey is based on 26 percent turnout. ”

African-American voter turnout will play a huge factor in every contest.

It will be interesting to see how all of this goes.

Last Man Standing

October 27th, 2010
3:13 pm

Bye, bye Jim and other democrats. Hello, Governor Deal!

lmno

October 27th, 2010
3:20 pm

The state of Georgia saw an 85% increase in black voter turnout from the 2004 presidential election to 2008. This is a midterm, however, and it remains to be seen how this all comes down.

Mr. KnowitAll

October 27th, 2010
3:28 pm

Marshall is a Nancy Pelosi lap dog, voting for her TWICE! He’s saying he will vote one thing here, then goes to Washington and licks Nancy’s high heels.

Marshall is a prime example of the spineless wimps that have folded under Pelosi’s leadership and brought this country to the precipice of ruin.

Marshall had his chance…and it is a DISASTER! Time to FIRE HIM and go with Scott.

findog

October 27th, 2010
3:37 pm

Last Man, don’t forget that in off year elections the democrats vote on Tuesday and the republicans on Wednesday to prevent violence

td

October 27th, 2010
3:41 pm

findog

October 27th, 2010
3:37 pm
Last Man, don’t forget that in off year elections the democrats vote on Tuesday and the republicans on Wednesday to prevent violence

I am pretty sure they changed that rule for this election since the Republicans are the incumbents.

findog

October 27th, 2010
3:58 pm

no incumbants for governor

AndyW

October 27th, 2010
4:00 pm

I think Marshall only polled his own campaign volunteers.

td

October 27th, 2010
4:01 pm

findog

October 27th, 2010
3:58 pm
no incumbants for governor

Then the rule is the party in power in the state (republicans at the present time) get to vote for their candidate on Tuesday and the Democrats have to vote on Wednesday to make sure their is no violence at the polls.

Imma Community Organizer

October 27th, 2010
4:39 pm

Will the New Black Panther Party members be stationed at the polls for “Security”?

Nancy sttttrrrrrrreeeeeeetccccch Pelosi

October 27th, 2010
4:42 pm

“It is the biggest bang for the buck when you do food stamps and unemployment insurance. The biggest bang for the buck,”

Bill

October 27th, 2010
4:47 pm

Imma: No, just lawyers. You can be sure that the repugs will have voter suppression operations going in minority precicts.

Last Man Standing

October 27th, 2010
4:50 pm

findog:

I guess I made a mistake then. I went out and voted early – against EVERY democrat on the ballot!

Last Man Standing

October 27th, 2010
4:52 pm

Bill:

“You can be sure that the repugs will have voter suppression operations going in minority precicts.”

You mean like the Black Panthers at the polling places in 2008?

Imma Community Organizer

October 27th, 2010
4:58 pm

Bill

October 27th, 2010
4:47 pm
Imma: No, just lawyers. You can be sure that the repugs will have voter suppression operations going in minority precicts.

And I know you have “proof” of the evil Republicans doing this, correct? Please share, or provide the link.

Mayor Richard Daley

October 27th, 2010
5:14 pm

Ok DEMS, remember, “vote early, vote often”, and don’t forget to vote for your dead friends. The Chicago Way!

td

October 27th, 2010
5:17 pm

Bill

October 27th, 2010
4:47 pm
Imma: No, just lawyers. You can be sure that the repugs will have voter suppression operations going in minority precicts.

Bill, I heard there were not going to be any evil Republican lawyers at the polls next Wednesday. You might want to spread the word.

calvinb

October 27th, 2010
5:32 pm

Well, the way I see it if Marshall does not declare what side he is on to signal the Black Vote he won’t be a lap dog for the Republi-stanker=Tea-idiots Blacks and Progressives won’t support him in great numbers. The Turnout will be fine. We are reving up the Community for Jubilee. So the ball is in his court!!!!

Side issue NO COMENT about the Senate’s Debate!!! How disappointing. I think all three talk their issues. Now, we have decision. It look like Michael Thurmond issues were great, save for the TAX CUTS for the Upper Rich??????

findog

October 27th, 2010
5:55 pm

Last man, you have to vote against democrats because you don’t have anything to vote for

td, based on your logic that all that is bad in the world is from those in power you have to vote democrat for state office and republican for national office, so you get to vote both days

Last Man Standing

October 27th, 2010
6:24 pm

findog:

When the election of ‘08 sent all these socialist dems to Washington, I swore a solemn oath NEVER to vote for a democrat. I will keep that pledge.

UGA 1954

October 28th, 2010
11:27 am

Well, the heading says it all — his own poll. Of course it will be in his favor — he paid for it.

kreedham

October 29th, 2010
12:40 am

Forgive me if this has been mentioned before but I predict if he wins Jim Marshall will bail and change to the Republican Party!

Jayne M. Barker

October 29th, 2010
9:01 am

Politics have reached the boiling point in Middle Georgia. You would
not believe some of the shenanigans that are trying to be pulled. I still believe there will be a runoff at the top. I want the whole state of Georgia to know that Willie Talton is the right one for the
job. I think it was a wise decision for him not to debate; why let
his opponent trash his many years of public service. If he can’t win on that, he can retire or go back to policing… Jim Marshall would have been better off to have run on his record outside of his DC
connections and those who have put him in a trap…

Hank Weinner

November 2nd, 2010
12:05 pm

I voted for Jimmy because he will help the military complex and our black friends