InsiderAdvantage/Channel 2 poll: Another one says governor’s race could be headed for runoff

Yet another statewide poll – the third this week – shows that Georgia’s race for governor remains in runoff territory. From Channel 2 Action News and InsiderAdvantage:

– Republican Nathan Deal, 47 percent;

– Democrat Roy Barnes, 41 percent;

– Libertarian John Monds, 5 percent;

– And undecided, 7 percent.

According to Channel 2 Action News, the survey touched 2,119 voters and has an MOE of +/- 2 percentage points.

IA CEO Matt Towery’s analysis, in part:

“Nathan Deal got a little closer to the magic 50-per-cent-plus-one mark by improving his numbers among independent voters. This is likely the result of recent ads in which Deal has punched back at Democratic nominee Roy Barnes, who hammered Deal with a series of tough ads for months. But this race is not yet decided. Deal continues to have trouble bringing Republicans home. In our last survey, 76 percent of Republicans said they were voting for Deal. In this survey, that percentage remains within the margin of error at 74 percent.”

By happenstance, Emory University this afternoon pushed out the YouTube analysis below by Merle Black, the political scientist, on Barnes’ chances:

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119 comments Add your comment

first!

October 26th, 2010
5:27 pm

FIRST!

And Jim, those ‘undecideds’ are gonna vote too. That should give Deal the 50.

Ralph

October 26th, 2010
5:29 pm

Keep hoping, Galloway (without your fake groan).

But not likely as undecided and wasted Monds votes convert to Deal.

Ralph

October 26th, 2010
5:33 pm

Even this Cox/AJC/WSB sponsored poll is not posted under the “Latest from the Pollsters” on the Georgia Politics page. The more accurate non-sponsored (hence higher for Deal) poll from Rasmussen is also missing.

NO DEAL!!

October 26th, 2010
5:34 pm

Please vote against Nathan Deal on Nov. 2nd!!! PLEASE!

buck

October 26th, 2010
6:09 pm

ALLOF;UM R CROOKS BUT I’LL GO W/ THE CONSERVITIVE CROOK BEATS OL’ KING ROY HANDS DOWN HIM BEING A OBAMA VOTER & ALL

McGill

October 26th, 2010
6:14 pm

Seems we have a pretty slim pickings if we’re asked to vote “against” someone. Doesn’t seem right. I’d much rather vote FOR one fellow or the other. Problem with this race is that neither of the two serious candidates appear interested in talking issues, so it’s hard to say which I can vote FOR. But I’ll tell you this, when I decide, I’ll vote FOR someone, and not AGAINST the other, as on eof your correspondents suggests.If it ever comes to that, we’re sunk as a democracy.

dorothy stapen

October 26th, 2010
6:16 pm

If Georgia is such a RED State, then Nathan Deal should have more than 50% in the polls. Be afraid, GOP, be very afraid.

older conservative

October 26th, 2010
6:22 pm

Again, I will say that you should vote for Mr. Deal or Mr. Barnes, not the Liberitarian cand. If you do, then there will be another month of slander between the two. I don’t know about you, but I have seen enough of personal attacks on the candidate and his family, some are blatant lies.
Study the issues and the facts, not the gossip!!!!! There are ways to learn what is factual and what is not.

john

October 26th, 2010
6:24 pm

So how does women going to Barnes and Deal losing GOP support result in Deal leading more?

MrLiberty

October 26th, 2010
6:28 pm

The runoff needs to be between Deal and Monds. Please wake up and realize that these two major party clowns are not right for GA and send that message with your vote for the clear best choice – John Monds.

MrLiberty

October 26th, 2010
6:32 pm

Older conservative – yes, you should just throw your principles out the window like every other conservative does when elections come around. It would be nice to have principles and vote for the best candidate, but apparently some people just want to get this election over with. This of course is how we ended up with McCain as the GOP nominee instead of Ron Paul and how so many complete losers have been nominated and elected as GOP candidates over the years.

Maybe if you cared as much about your vote, and maybe if everyone cared as much about their vote everyone would realize that the only correct and proper candidate to vote for is Monds.

Please tell me how anything is going to change when you all keep doing the same things over and over and keep voting for the same losers over and over?? Is something magical going to happen that I am not aware of???

john

October 26th, 2010
6:37 pm

http://www.peachpundit.com/2010/10/19/new-insider-advantage-poll-in-governors-race/
Comparing those crosstabs to the new ones, Barnes over doubled GOP support from 5.6 to 11.6%. In the same week, GOP support slipped from 76.3 to 74.3 for Deal.

Bobby Anthony

October 26th, 2010
7:13 pm

Bye Bye Barnes.

Josh

October 26th, 2010
7:34 pm

Vote for Deal because of the Conservative ideas he supports. Vote for Deal because you care about the future of Georgia.

Bob

October 26th, 2010
7:40 pm

Josh: What if you’re a moderate or a liberal and care about the future of Georgia?

Bobby

October 26th, 2010
7:40 pm

Hey King Roy, remember us? “Boot Barnes” and we intend to boot you again just as our Georgia Confederate ancestors would have done. We have no intentions of letting you be elected dog catcher, let alone Governor. On the other hand Deal is a crook. So, I’m voting Monds.

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
7:47 pm

Really Josh. What specific conservative ideas Deal supports that will positively impact the future of Georgia? What wasteful GOP spending built up over the past 8-years does he plan to cut? How will he offset more tax cuts to balance the budget? What jail time does he propose for women who have abortions? Will he have a problem when TI gets out of jail and attends a GOP rally with an AK-47? What federal stimulus funds does he plan to reject?

td

October 26th, 2010
7:49 pm

john

October 26th, 2010
6:24 pm
So how does women going to Barnes and Deal losing GOP support result in Deal leading more?

Barnes has not went over 41% in any poll since the primary, so how are all of these people switching to him? The numbers for for Deal have fluctuated from 47% to 52% and Monds has never gotten over 5%. The undecided people is what keeps changing. These undecided wants to vote for Deal one day and not the next (they have never went to Barnes). They will more than likely go to the pole, hold their nose and vote for Deal or will stay at home. If they stay at home Deal goes to probably 52 or 53% if they vote for him he receives 54 or 55%. Either way Deal will be the next Governor of the state of Georgia.

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
7:50 pm

Bobby. Mentioning favorably both your confederate ancestors and Monds in the same sentence is rather funny.

td

October 26th, 2010
7:52 pm

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
7:47 pm

“What wasteful GOP spending built up over the past 8-years does he plan to cut?” You do realize the state budget has been cut from $22.8 billion at its high in 2006 to $16.8 billion tis year?

john

October 26th, 2010
7:52 pm

Yes, I’m sure deal voters love to go to the pole.

dan

October 26th, 2010
7:56 pm

A VOTE FOR BARES IS A VOTE FOR THE STATE A VOTE FOR DEAL IS A VOTE FOR THE REPUB. PARTY DEAL CAN NOTRUN THE STATE OF GA.UNLESS YOU PEOPLE WANT HIM TO BANKRUPT THE STATE AND ONE CAN NOT GO BY INDEPENDENT POLLS

Perspective

October 26th, 2010
7:57 pm

Its very interesting how folks still want Deal to replace Perdue in Georgia despite several years of failed Republican policies, both at the state and federal level. It took 8 long years for Bush and Co. to get us into this mess, this after starting with a SURPLUS, and now people want Obama to fix things in less than 2 years on the job, while still being saddled with 2 wars, a Wall Street fiasco, an oil spill caused by his predecessors’ policies, a housing market that was sliding down since 2005, and a weak US Dollar. I guess being rational is too much to expect in this political climate!!

td

October 26th, 2010
8:00 pm

john

October 26th, 2010
7:52 pm
Yes, I’m sure deal voters love to go to the pole.

Typical lib when you can not argue the facts or even dispute them you try to run down the other person. I am not perfect but I know that Deal will be the next Governor.

Best for Georgia

October 26th, 2010
8:03 pm

If Georgia Republicans knowingly elevate a person as corrupt as Deal, there will come a day when that decision will come back to haunt them. Once Deal is indicted, Georgia Republicans will be remembered as the party that deliberatedly put partisanship ahead of principle.

td

October 26th, 2010
8:04 pm

Perspective

October 26th, 2010
7:57 pm
Its very interesting how folks still want Deal to replace Perdue in Georgia despite several years of failed Republican policies, both at the state and federal level. It took 8 long years for Bush and Co. to get us into this mess, this after starting with a SURPLUS, and now people want Obama to fix things in less than 2 years on the job, while still being saddled with 2 wars, a Wall Street fiasco, an oil spill caused by his predecessors’ policies, a housing market that was sliding down since 2005, and a weak US Dollar. I guess being rational is too much to expect in this political climate!!

How long is it going to take our children and grand children to pay off the debt Obama has run up in the last two years? We can not afford any more spending like this.

dan

October 26th, 2010
8:06 pm

PERSPECTIVE YOU ARE RIGHT BUT THE REPUBLICANS BLAME IT ON THE DEMOCRATS WHAT A JOKE

Virginia

October 26th, 2010
8:14 pm

@dan: That is because R’s are idiots!
@td: “can’t afford more spending like this” Obama has run up this debt this last 2 years?? Really? And where were you during the Bush Administration when he and the Republican-run Congress were spending like drunken sailors? Why sitting on your hands, of course and being VERY, VERY AFRAID! You are so pathetic!

Calhoun

October 26th, 2010
8:15 pm

Flash! This just in:

“Deal Travels State by Bus Advocating Truth, Justice, and the American Way”
Explanations and definitions for Barnesites expected within the week.
Criticism to follow from the AJC and squealers and howlers.

john

October 26th, 2010
8:17 pm

Where is the last man standing, I miss his lame attempts at humor, I’m sure he would’ve laughed, you need to take a chill pill td, get ready for Governor Barnes.

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
8:24 pm

td. The 2010 total budget I saw was $17.0 and the 2011 forecast is $17.9B, but why quibble. I can’t give the GOP credit for cutting $6B of their wasteful spending over the past four-years when they plan to increase it by nearly $1B next year. Deal tells us that he will cut wasteful spending, and we know that Perdue and the GOP cut all the wasteful budget line items Barnes accumulated over his four years that was $14.7B before he got kicked out of office. Therefore, all of the wasteful spending over the past 8-years that Deal plans to cut had to have been built up by the GOP.

td

October 26th, 2010
8:26 pm

Virginia

October 26th, 2010
8:14 pm

Really? And where were you during the Bush Administration when he and the Republican-run Congress were spending like drunken sailors?

And why do you think the far left is in charge of a center/right nation now and there is a movement called the tea party? When they wanted to become Democrat light then we stayed home and let them get voted out of office. Have you also noticed how so many of the establishment Republicans have been voted out in the primaries?

“You are so pathetic!” and you live in la la land not knowing what is about to happen.

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
8:27 pm

Darn Calhoun, I couldn’t help myself. I thought Nathan Deal was running for governor, not Superman! Truth, Justice, and the American Way? What about “faster than a speeding bullet, faster than a locomotive, and able to leap tall building in a single bound?”

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
8:28 pm

Sorry…That was “stronger than a locomotive.”

td

October 26th, 2010
8:29 pm

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
8:24 pm
td. The 2010 total budget I saw was $17.0 and the 2011 forecast is $17.9B, but why quibble. I can’t give the GOP credit for cutting $6B of their wasteful spending over the past four-years when they plan to increase it by nearly $1B next year. Deal tells us that he will cut wasteful spending, and we know that Perdue and the GOP cut all the wasteful budget line items Barnes accumulated over his four years that was $14.7B before he got kicked out of office. Therefore, all of the wasteful spending over the past 8-years that Deal plans to cut had to have been built up by the GOP.

Well the last time I talked to Mr. Deal I did give him the names of about 50 or so do nothing liberals he can purge from the government payrolls.

john

October 26th, 2010
8:30 pm

LOL, the dummy gets crazier by the day, first admitting Deal will abuse the governorship for financial reasons, now suggesting Deal use it for political reasons.

td

October 26th, 2010
8:33 pm

john

October 26th, 2010
8:17 pm

“get ready for Governor Barnes.”

Now that is the funniest thing I have heard in weeks:-) I will be chilling quiet well on the night of the election, giving high fives to all the state wide republicans that just made a clean sweep into office. Make sure you go vote on Nov 3rd now.

john

October 26th, 2010
8:34 pm

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
8:40 pm

td. Purging the 50 or so do nothing liberal from the government payrolls could take care of $10 million, if they were making $200K per year, but we know that all of those jobs were created by Perdue. Now, let’s talk about the $3-4 BILLION in real cuts.

Virginia

October 26th, 2010
8:45 pm

td

October 26th, 2010
8:26 pm
Virginia

October 26th, 2010
8:14 pm

Really? And where were you during the Bush Administration when he and the Republican-run Congress were spending like drunken sailors?

And why do you think the far left is in charge of a center/right nation now and there is a movement called the tea party? When they wanted to become Democrat light then we stayed home and let them get voted out of office. Have you also noticed how so many of the establishment Republicans have been voted out in the primaries?

@td: Do you have a point? I ask you again: where were you when Bush & Repub congress wasted a surplus and spent us into a huge deficit? Were you whining and crying and rolling on the floor in a big ole tantrum then? Hell NO!! And now you think everybody is going to be as gullible as you and believe it’s all Obama’s fault? Sorry, we don’t all get our marching orders from Rush & Glenn. And some of us were actually paying attention the last 10 years. Sorry you didn’t have time for that!! Want to give me an answer now?

john

October 26th, 2010
8:58 pm

td is intellectually dishonest, of course he won’t argue with you on actual issues, he just likes to preach about the evils of liberalism.

The Centrist

October 26th, 2010
9:03 pm

Virginia. Do you remember the Blue Dog Democrats, during the black hole years, talking to an empty House Chamber about the deficit and debt, while Bush was keeping the war supplementals off-budget?

jack freeman

October 26th, 2010
9:09 pm

the informed people of georgia are suprised that the polls say 47 per cent of voters will vote for deal but dont be suprised. you see these people every day at the checkout fumbling for their checkbook, staring at the light 10 seconds after it turns green, or staring at the buffet undecided about beans or corn. how could they possiblly decide between barnes and deal. tails for deal and georgia loses, heads for barnes and georgia wins.

Drew

October 26th, 2010
9:13 pm

NO ROY BARNES NO ROY BARNES NO ROY BARNES. VOTE FOR DEAL!!!!!!!!

td

October 26th, 2010
9:14 pm

Virginia

October 26th, 2010
8:45 pm

I guess you were not really reading what I wrote or you did comprehend it very well. Conservatives were paying attention. We did not like the spending direction the establishment Republicans were taking the country. We stayed home on election day in 06 and 08. The result was the Democrats took over congress and won the Presidency. It just took one year of the Obama administration for the conservatives to wake up and say enough is enough. They formed the tea party. They kicked out a great deal of establishment Republicans in the primaries and sent a message to the rest of the Republican party. The conservative are ready now to take back the Congress and most of the Governorships. Conservatives understand that it was partially the establishments fault but no where near as bad as what Obama has done in the last two years. Republicans now have one more chance to get it right or they will become an extinct party.

Does this answer your questions? This is as simple as I could write it.

mehlman rings twice

October 26th, 2010
9:27 pm

I recently attended a business round table where a prominent businessman said he has had conversations with both major candidates. He stated that one had a plan to trap storm run-off 10 years ago and the other didn’t even realize it was a problem. That is all you need to know about the Nathan Deal.

Brittiny

October 26th, 2010
9:28 pm

Conversatives have a vision for America…one based on individual freedom and responsiblity, not the power of the state. Next week there is a vote. Do you support what Obama and the progressives have done? Are you pleased with the acceleration of federal power and federal spending. Are you pleased that the federal budget is 25% larger than when Obama took office. Did the takeover of banks, car companies and student loans feel like a move in the right direction. Are you feeling like Obamacare is a good decison?
If you are Vote Democrat and be proud.
If you think that smaller government is better government. If you think the democrats have us on the wrong track,if you think that our government should get out of the way to allow us to grow again then vote Republican.
No need to shout at each other. No need to call names. The Obama record is clear for all of us. Now we will vote.

john

October 26th, 2010
9:37 pm

Fans of “small” government should move to Wyoming.

Billy Bob

October 26th, 2010
9:47 pm

@td…..I gave Nathan a list of people to fire and save big money, too. Just fire all of Sonny’s agency heads and advisors. I even gave him a list of all the places that have gone to hide. Will be great seeing them have to work elsewhere rather than stroke Sonny and say yes sir.

Steve

October 26th, 2010
9:52 pm

Says the referendum is on the state GOP leadership in Georgia for the last 8 years & Senator Johnny Isakson for the last 6 yrs in Washington.
How did we really all benefit?

Is the No Child Left Behind Act ok?
Is CAFTA & NAFTA ok?
Was the $700 million for the banks ok?