11Alive/V-103/WMAZ-TV poll: Governor’s race could be headed to a runoff

Sunday’s Insider column pointed to the possibility of a runoff in Georgia’s race for governor. 11Alive just provided some fresh statistical underpinnings:

With the general election just a week from Tuesday, a new independent poll from SurveyUSA commissioned by 11Alive News and V-103 Radio shows a commanding lead for Georgia’s Republicans in statewide offices, but it also shows an increased possibility of a runoff in the hotly contested governor’s race.

Democratic candidate and former Gov. Roy Barnes is up a small bit from our last survey six weeks ago, but the numbers indicate that Republican former US Congressman Nathan Deal is ahead of Barnes, 49 percent to 39 percent.

Libertarian John Monds, at 8 percent, Monday takes the votes of 1-in-4 independents and 1-in-6 liberals, potentially keeping Deal just under the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, though support for third-party candidates sometimes collapses on Election Day.

From the SurveyUSA web site, with crosstabs:

Deal is flat. Barnes has gained ground among men and voters under age 50; there is offsetting momentum for Deal among women andvoters 50+.

Libertarian John Monds, at 8%, today takes the votes of 1 in 4 independents and 1 in 6 liberals, potentially keeping Deal just under the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, though support for 3rd-party candidates sometimes collapses on Election Day.

The stats:

The survey interviewed 1,100 Georgia adults between Oct. 21 and Oct. 24 via telephone. Of those surveyed, 909 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election. The margin of sampling error was a plus-or-minus 4.1 percent.

My AJC colleague Jeremy Redmon was with Deal today during a swing through Cedartown in Polk County, and filed this:

“We are hoping that won’t be the case,” Deal said about a runoff. “I don’t think anybody wants to have another month-long session of this. We feel pretty good about avoiding that possibility, quite frankly. We think the undecideds are breaking our way. And if that happens, there won’t be a runoff.”

Neither is Barnes talking about a runoff. Following the former governor in middle Georgia, my AJC colleague Aaron Gould Sheinin sent this:

“I think I can win without one,” Barnes said. “I think I’ve been through these things before. You generally move around and see it gel at the end. I see that happening already.”

SurveyUSA also says two other races could end up in a runoff:

Republican Sam Olens is right at the 50 percent mark in his race against Democrat Ken Hodges for attorney general, and John Barge is under 50 percent in his contest against Democrat Joe Martin for state school superintendent.

In the governor’s race, both Deal and Barnes are on bus trips across the state today.

This morning, the Barnes campaign issued this version of the Marietta attorney’s closing argument – in which Barnes pitches himself as an alternative to scandal:

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113 comments Add your comment

Hmmmmm

October 25th, 2010
12:38 pm

Please God, no runoff.

TRUTH

October 25th, 2010
12:43 pm

The raw Deal; the real steal

Wore Out

October 25th, 2010
12:43 pm

Run them off and out of the state

jtaylor27

October 25th, 2010
12:48 pm

I’m no Deal fan, but run-offs are stupid. They are a waste of time and money. The only people who could possibly see them as beneficial are the political campaign organizations and TV stations who get more ad money. I hope Roy pulls it out, but if he loses the general he will get BLOWN OUT in a run-off. A repeat of the 2008 Senate race, I feel certain.

UGA 1954

October 25th, 2010
12:50 pm

I don’t think I could endure another few additional weeks of campaign ads. Sick to death of them ALL already!!

UGA 1954

October 25th, 2010
12:51 pm

As an aside, I wonder if Barnes does in fact end up in a runoff, if he will avoid Obama like he did earlier or welcome him here with open arms?

Puzzled

October 25th, 2010
12:54 pm

Well this is the best the democrats can do. After all the scandal from Deal and Barnes can’t move up even a few points in a poll. I can’t even imagine how bad Barnes would be polling had Deal not won that primary. Come on dems, get something together.

Catherine

October 25th, 2010
12:57 pm

I think after yesterday’s debate, Ken Hodges can give up hope of a runoff. Olens stomped him good!

RHWOA

October 25th, 2010
1:01 pm

Deal or No Deal? NO DEAL!!!!!!
Republicans can not earn our vote as they don’t deserve it. It was the Republicans that put this world into war and in the worst shape EVER. We have no jobs here, gas prices are at the highest, we are losing our schools, and health plans are outreagously over priced. It’s time for change and the only way that change can be made is to continue to give Obama the opportunity to fix what Bush and the republicans have created. NO DEAL… NO REPUBlICANS! Exercise your Right to Vote and Vote Democrat on Tuesday, Nov 2nd.

@crazyforliberty (Doug Craig)

October 25th, 2010
1:13 pm

If you dont want to feel greasy after the elections vote Libertarian
http://www.votemonds.com. The two reasons the libertarians are causing a run off is because the two big partiea are putting up bad candidates while the Libertarians are putting up great candidates. Maybe you should join the Libertarian party http://www.lpgeorgia.com and help us fight for smaller government on ALL fronts

Jimmie

October 25th, 2010
1:14 pm

One more poll out there showing that Roy Barnes has topped out in support at 40%. I like Roy (I happen to like Nathan more), but Roy can’t win with these numbers. If it goes to a runoff, he will certainly lose by fairly large numbers. Roy simply will not be able to drive the turnout he will need in a one-off election if it goes to a runoff. It is an electoral inevitability – I sure hope that for the piece of mind of all Georgia voters, this thing ends on November 2nd.

UGA 1954

October 25th, 2010
1:15 pm

@RHWOA — Are you kidding? You are now going to blame Republicans for “putting this world into war?” Which one? Be specific. If you think things are bad now, just wait. The liberal agenda will make it much worse. Don’t fool yourself into thinking that the root of all problems in the world is caused by the Republicans. The Democrats are just as guilty. Both parties share in this glorious mess!! Don’t forget that your good buddy Barney had his fingers all in the housing meltdown and his friend Chris Dobb. Oops, Democrats don’t like hearing the truth. Gas is lower than two years ago, the schools have been going downhill for about ten years, and if you think health care is overpriced now — just wait. We just got our new increase — imagine already paying 1700 a month and finding out you are getting a 17% increase to boot. Oh wait, we were promised about ten months ago that things like this wouldn’t happen. Oh, wait again, “let’s vote it in and then find out what’s in it.” [Pelosi, 12/09]. Yup, that’s right. Go on blaming the Republicans are all the woes in your life. I think at this point in time, one can blame BOTH PARTIES EQUALLY!!

Sandra

October 25th, 2010
1:16 pm

No deal! As for Roy Barnes not being able to avoid a run-off, Republicans will hold their noses and vote for Deal even though they know he is very ethically challenged just because he has that ‘R’ behind his name. On the other hand, if the same info had come out about Roy Barnes as it has Deal, they wouldn’t be scorching the earth with their comments about how we should consider his lack of ethics. Anybody wonder why I feel nothing but hyprocrisy that comes from these folks? I won’t vote a straight ticket one way or the other and will even vote for some Liberterians. I research the candidates and make up my mind about them individually. Too bad others can’t do the same. The Nathan Deal issue just totally defies common sense.

yuzeyurbrain

October 25th, 2010
1:16 pm

My instincts tell me race is closer than this poll indicates. Deal has long ago topped out. And his late barrage of really vile ads suggest desperation based on their own tracking polls. A candidate with really commanding lead would doing warm and fuzzies now.

Ernest T

October 25th, 2010
1:22 pm

It’s a mess. Just a mess.

Retired Soldier

October 25th, 2010
1:26 pm

yuz-

Really vile ads? The only really vile ads I have seen are ones by Barnes. I wouldn’t vote for Barnes even if I was inclined to because of his vile ads.

Janice

October 25th, 2010
1:26 pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

UGA 1954

October 25th, 2010
1:27 pm

@Retired Soldier — I think that’s why he’s polling so poorly. People are sick of dirty ads and even dirtier politics. Just completely fed up!!

khc

October 25th, 2010
1:40 pm

Ralph

October 25th, 2010
1:43 pm

Despite what Galloway hopes for – it looks like there won’t be any runoffs. The glossed over part – “support for third-party candidates sometimes (read usually)collapses on Election Day”, and undecideds will either not vote or likely Republican – they only need a percent or two.

Jimmie

October 25th, 2010
1:44 pm

I like Roy and for all those who speak of how bad the two choices for Governor are, I tend to disagree – we have two proven candidates that both have the skills to run the state. Both of these guys can do the job – it is just a question of directional focus. I think Nathan will do a better job, however, because I think government needs to be smaller and more responsive. It comes down to what you believe in – an ever expanding government sector, or an expanding private sector with a smaller more flexible state government. Roy is for higher taxes and bigger state government. If you depend on government, you are going to vote for Roy. If not, you’ll probably vote for Nathan. Nathan is for a larger private sector with a smaller, but better managed state government that is focused. The fact that when the Perdue administration came in, there was no record of how many state vehicles were in the fleet or how many leases the state had for buildings is an example of how Roy didn’t manage the state financially. I think it blew Perdue’s team away when they realized that successive Democrat administrations had no clue what the state’s assets were, didn’t have a list, weren’t managing then, and seemingly did not care. Government at all levels, local, state, and federal has to get smaller. This is what this election is about – if you want bigger, less accountable government, vote for Roy Barnes. If not, vote for Nathan Deal. Neither guy is the devil. Both have their plusses and minuses – for instance, even though Roy got crucified by the teachers, he was probably on the right track in his education reforms, and I applaud him for his leadership on the flag. Nathan’s tax plan is clearly superior to Roy’s ideas and I don’t think he will govern with the heavy hand Roy had. They just have fundamentally different ideas of the role of government in our lives. It is a clear choice of philosophy – it is a shame all the personal stuff is getting in the way of an adult discussion of the issues.

NO DEAL

October 25th, 2010
1:52 pm

cs

October 25th, 2010
1:53 pm

Re: Roy Barnes
Posted by Jack Williams on 10/23/2010, 1:48 pm, in reply to “Re: Roy Barnes”
216.81.106.116

King Roy is one piece of work. When he arrived at the Journal-Herald several weeks ago in his chauffeur-driven car, he walked into the front lobby and asked if he could use the restroom. He was given directons and arrived inside to do his business. When he was through, he simply left the restroom (without washing his hands) and walked upstairs to shake hands with the newsroom staff, including yours truly. I was the first to shake Roy’s hand after his “perforamnce” downstairs. His driver subsequently followed him into the restroom and performed in the sink! No kidding! He, too, left without washing his hands. All of this was witnessed by a long-time Journal-Herald employee who was in the restroom when both men entered and “performed.” This is what Roy thinks of his fellow Georgians! He doesn’t even have the courtesy to wash his hands after using the toilet — knowing full-well that he will be shaking hands with others moments later. He just doesn’t care. After all, he’s the king!

@Jimmie

October 25th, 2010
1:55 pm

Jimmie, I like your reasoned analysis, but what about the fact that Nathan Deal is a crook?

Jimmie

October 25th, 2010
2:07 pm

Nice try, @Jimmie. The couple of million in ad buys notwithstanding, Nathan has done nothing wrong, but I will give the Barnes campaign kudos for using whatever they can make up to try to derail Nathan. Politics is a contact sport, no question about it. I am frankly amazed that the Deal campaign has not hit back at Roy on some of his areas of exposure. I think that the Deal team is playing a more gentlemanly form of politics, but if you know Nathan, that is not surprising. But the fact is that Roy is not going to win, Nathan will be Georgia’s next governor and all of the innuendo surrounding Nathan that is 100% politically motivated (starting in the R primary) will be proven to be just that, innuendo and bare knuckled politics.

Noo Corrupt Deal, Nooooo King Roy

October 25th, 2010
2:09 pm

Voted for John Monds last week, I can look myself in the mirror and did not hold my nose. I’ll vote Monds in the run off. Deal is everything Barnes accuses him of & the some.

Ga Values

October 25th, 2010
2:12 pm

What is the difference between Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA), Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), & Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)? Deal resigned rather than face trial.

15 MOST CORRUPT CONGRESSMEN

Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA)
Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL)
Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL)
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA)
Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL)
Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV)
Rep. John Murtha (D-PA)
Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY)
Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA)
Rep. Pete Visclosky (D-IN)
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)
Rep. Don Young (R-AK)

Chris

October 25th, 2010
2:15 pm

Went to John Monds’ website and there is no mention of what he does for a living. Noo Corrupt Deal, Noooo King Roy, as a Monds voter, can you tell me what John’s background/career is? I have asked a couple of Monds supporters on this blog and haven’t gotten a response. Anybody know?

RHWOA

October 25th, 2010
2:21 pm

@UGA1954…You know for yourself that we have been living 8+ years of hell when the “Bush’s” were in office and even so today. This freaking war has costed us EVERYTHING. Lives, jobs, money, taxes, etc..you name it. This isn’t personal this is just facts. There is no way this was equal as the Republicans had more of the house and senate then Democrats in that era. The reason it’s so hard now is because of all the bad votes on bills and bad decision from the white house…we suffer. The sad thing about it is No one actually knows how to fix this mess but I believe the Democrats would certainly give it a try.

Noo Corrupt Deal, Nooooo King Roy

October 25th, 2010
2:23 pm

@Chris..The only thing that matters about Monds is that he is NOT Corrupt Deal or King Roy. I am a life long Republican and know both Deal & Barnes professionally, they are both bad news. I voted for Handel twice, she correctly nailed Nathan as “A Corrupt Washington Relic”

older conservative

October 25th, 2010
2:23 pm

Even though this seems to be primarily a liberal blog, I must take a stand for Nathan Deal. He is NOT a crook!!!!!!!!!! Do your research. This has been one of the most sickening campaigns of personal attack on a man and his family. Evidently theDemocratic campaign will do ANYTHING to win votes. Come on people, use some common knowledge rather than attack. What are the two candidates going to do if elected, NOT, how much of a scoundral the other person is.

bobby parr

October 25th, 2010
2:24 pm

Do you really think your headline is the top story here? After months of attacks, Deal has opened up the biggest percentage lead of any of the polls to date, 10%. Keep pushing Roy, AJC.

John Murtha

October 25th, 2010
2:25 pm

I am dead. Therefore I do not belong on the list of most corrupt congressman.Although I do understand how some people can mistake a dead person for a congressman.

td

October 25th, 2010
2:29 pm

RHWOA

October 25th, 2010
2:21 pm
@UGA1954…You know for yourself that we have been living 8+ years of hell when the “Bush’s” were in office and even so today. This freaking war has costed us EVERYTHING. Lives, jobs, money, taxes, etc..you name it. This isn’t personal this is just facts. There is no way this was equal as the Republicans had more of the house and senate then Democrats in that era. The reason it’s so hard now is because of all the bad votes on bills and bad decision from the white house…we suffer. The sad thing about it is No one actually knows how to fix this mess but I believe the Democrats would certainly give it a try.

You are delusional my friend. Who attacked whom on 9/11? What were we suppose to do? What should have been the solution? Please give us fact to these questions?

Chris

October 25th, 2010
2:34 pm

Noo Corrupt Deal Nooo King Roy, I appreciate how you feel and I applaud you for voting whatever your convictions are, but as a Monds supporter, I am simply asking for information on your candidate. I can’t find any information on what Mr. Monds does for a career, either in this blog or on his website, and I think that is a reasonable question to ask of one of his supporters. You seem to be a reasonable person and you obviously take your vote seriously – I applaud you for that as well – that being the case, I am sure you researched John Monds before you pulled the lever for him. What’s his occupation – it’s not a trick question. Thanks. I am not sure who I am going to vote for, so info. on an alternative would be helpful.

Believing

October 25th, 2010
2:35 pm

A vote for Deal is a vote against common sense. That is nothing new for Georgia. After all we like thumbing our nose at folks who try to tell what’s best for us. Sad. So sad.

Tom

October 25th, 2010
2:38 pm

Deal’s polling numbers are slipping?

Uh-oh…….guess it’s time to link Barnes to “teh gayz’.

Noo Corrupt Deal, Nooooo King Roy

October 25th, 2010
2:43 pm

Noo Corrupt Deal, Nooooo King Roy

October 25th, 2010
2:46 pm

@ Chris.. hope this my above post doesn’t confuse you.. It is the AJC’s bio of John Monds.

khc

October 25th, 2010
2:48 pm

hey td, after 9/11 did you rush out and join the service….you are staunch conservative believing in strong national defense

Virginia

October 25th, 2010
2:50 pm

@td: Obviously you are the one who is delusional, AGAIN! We were not attacked by Iraq on 9/11!! Only you and Dick Cheney still believe that little sugarplum!

Chris

October 25th, 2010
2:51 pm

Noo Corrupt Deal, Nooo King Roy – thanks for sending me that link – I should have thought to dig around AJC site (Mr. Monds website doesn’t give as much bio as this did). That is helpful info. and gives me something to chew on and I appreciate it.

Sarah Mills

October 25th, 2010
2:52 pm

DPG just did a hit piece on the corruption of Nathan Deal and Casey Cagle!

Check it out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDwFMnB6oV8

td

October 25th, 2010
2:56 pm

khc

October 25th, 2010
2:48 pm
hey td, after 9/11 did you rush out and join the service….you are staunch conservative believing in strong national defense

I was a little to old at the time so they would not take me. I did have plenty of relatives that either were in or joined afterwards and I sure as heck did send a lot of care packages for them and the other American heroes that went over there to kick some butt.

McGill

October 25th, 2010
2:57 pm

I am almost sick unto ill health of thee two gentlemen (loose definition) who are running for governor. With all of the accusations, charges, counter-charges, lies, half-lies, exagerations, and other charges flying I invite anyone truly concerned about the condition of Georgia citizens to explain to us where these two men stand on any important issue! (Sorry Mr. Monds, you are not a serious candidate.) Four more weeks of this? Twenty eight more days of disgusting TV ads, nonsensical radio “blurbs” and countless robotic telephone calls to my home are simply too intolerable to contemplate. Political campaigning has become a bad joke on the population. Count me out.

McGill

October 25th, 2010
2:59 pm

While we’re at it, what the hell does 9/11 have to do with Georgia politics? You people go away.

td

October 25th, 2010
3:00 pm

Virginia

October 25th, 2010
2:50 pm
@td: Obviously you are the one who is delusional, AGAIN! We were not attacked by Iraq on 9/11!! Only you and Dick Cheney still believe that little sugarplum!

And Iraq was not a threat to us or Israel? My only regret is that we have not taken out Iran also. You do realize that Islamic fundamentalist have declared war on the USA and that they believe as non-believers our only choices are to convert, become slaves or die?

Raul Rodriguez

October 25th, 2010
3:06 pm

PLEASE GOD NO MORE ROY BARNES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

td

October 25th, 2010
3:07 pm

McGill

October 25th, 2010
2:57 pm
I am almost sick unto ill health of thee two gentlemen (loose definition) who are running for governor. With all of the accusations, charges, counter-charges, lies, half-lies, exagerations, and other charges flying I invite anyone truly concerned about the condition of Georgia citizens to explain to us where these two men stand on any important issue!

My friend, this is called mud slinging and it happens in most every race (if you think this race is bad just wait for two more years). What you really should concentrate on is what are the philosophies of the party that the individual represents, because they are going to follow this 95% of the time. If you really research the philosophy, know which one most fits your own beliefs and vote that way then your health will improve.

Ed

October 25th, 2010
3:09 pm

You know, that “paved road” that ran in front of Deal’s business was never paved or extended. I watched the channel 5 broadcast and was left waiting for more, which never came. If that’s all king Roy has on deal, he not got much. Now, can we take a look in Roy’s closet? Second thought, nawww, it’d probably scare me….