Those hard-hitting ads from Democratic nominee for governor Roy Barnes appear to eating into Republican Nathan Deal’s margin. From a new InsiderAdvantage poll for Channel 2 Action News:
The survey included responses from 507 registered voters who said they were likely to or had voted in the race for governor. It was conducted using InsiderAdvantage’s telephone IVR system and it was weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.
It showed the following:
The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Campaign behavior is the best gauge of whether polls are close to the mark. This afternoon, the Deal campaign began airing the TV ad below as a defense against the Barnes onslaught. It’s the first time the GOP candidate has, on television, raised Barnes’ representation of an accused child molester in court.
Female narrator: How does Roy Barnes hide his disastrous education record, historic unemployment, and his defense of a child molester?
“With false, personal attacks, and flat-out lies. Roy Barnes. Wrong then. Wrong now.
“As a prosecutor, Nathan Deal fought to put rapists and murderers to prison. As governor, Nathan will keep fighting for us with for education reforms that bring real results, and job creating tax cuts that bring real prosperity.
“Nathan Deal. He’ll get it right … the first time.”
Back to the InsiderAdvantage/Channel 2 Action News poll. Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage, has posted his crosstabs here.
A taste of his analysis:
“It should be noted that it is very hard to anticipate exactly what level Republicans will turn out in Georgia this year. The poll reflects a substantial Republican edge in its weighting.
“This edge could actually be higher but currently Georgia does not appear to be a state where there is frenetic Republican activity or enough hot races (such as Florida, Kentucky, California, etc.) to potentially generate the flood of Republicans that might be expected in those states. This makes it very tricky, given the fact that a flood of Republicans and a low Democratic turnout on election day could easily boost Deal to a 50% plus victory….
“Barnes made progress in other areas in the crosstabs. Deal still leads among Independents, but only by a 45-38 margin, just slightly outside the margin of error. Barnes is slowly creeping up among white voters. He now stands at 26%. The magic number for Barnes is 30% but anything between 27 and 30 could force the race into a runoff if African American voters turn out at a higher than expected level.
“Other areas where there was movement include men, where Deal has a 46 to 39 lead but a narrower one than in some recent polls. Of greater interest is the female vote, where Deal is at 44% and Barnes at 40% with 12% still undecided….”