InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll: Gap separating Nathan Deal and Roy Barnes shrinks

Those hard-hitting ads from Democratic nominee for governor Roy Barnes appear to eating into Republican Nathan Deal’s margin. From a new InsiderAdvantage poll for Channel 2 Action News:

The survey included responses from 507 registered voters who said they were likely to or had voted in the race for governor. It was conducted using InsiderAdvantage’s telephone IVR system and it was weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.

It showed the following:

Deal, 45%

Barnes, 40%

Monds, 5%

Undecided, 10%

The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Campaign behavior is the best gauge of whether polls are close to the mark. This afternoon, the Deal campaign began airing the TV ad below as a defense against the Barnes onslaught. It’s the first time the GOP candidate has, on television, raised Barnes’ representation of an accused child molester in court.

The script:

Female narrator: How does Roy Barnes hide his disastrous education record, historic unemployment, and his defense of a child molester?

“With false, personal attacks, and flat-out lies. Roy Barnes. Wrong then. Wrong now.

“As a prosecutor, Nathan Deal fought to put rapists and murderers to prison. As governor, Nathan will keep fighting for us with for education reforms that bring real results, and job creating tax cuts that bring real prosperity.

“Nathan Deal. He’ll get it right … the first time.”

Back to the InsiderAdvantage/Channel 2 Action News poll. Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage, has posted his crosstabs here.

A taste of his analysis:

“It should be noted that it is very hard to anticipate exactly what level Republicans will turn out in Georgia this year. The poll reflects a substantial Republican edge in its weighting.

“This edge could actually be higher but currently Georgia does not appear to be a state where there is frenetic Republican activity or enough hot races (such as Florida, Kentucky, California, etc.) to potentially generate the flood of Republicans that might be expected in those states. This makes it very tricky, given the fact that a flood of Republicans and a low Democratic turnout on election day could easily boost Deal to a 50% plus victory….

“Barnes made progress in other areas in the crosstabs. Deal still leads among Independents, but only by a 45-38 margin, just slightly outside the margin of error. Barnes is slowly creeping up among white voters. He now stands at 26%. The magic number for Barnes is 30% but anything between 27 and 30 could force the race into a runoff if African American voters turn out at a higher than expected level.

“Other areas where there was movement include men, where Deal has a 46 to 39 lead but a narrower one than in some recent polls. Of greater interest is the female vote, where Deal is at 44% and Barnes at 40% with 12% still undecided….”

For instant updates, follow me on Twitter, or connect with me on Facebook.

138 comments Add your comment

Karen Handel Supporter

October 19th, 2010
4:02 pm

I am going to vote for Roy Barnes and I hope all Karen Handel supporters do the same.

Really Red

October 19th, 2010
4:09 pm

1% tax rate? When do I get Nathan’s Deal?

professional skeptic

October 19th, 2010
4:09 pm

Nathan Deal is STILL going around claiming he’ll get it right the first time? After proving himself incapable of filing truthful financial disclosure forms after multiple attempts?

Unbelievable. The sheer arrogance of the man is mind-boggling.

Ralph

October 19th, 2010
4:10 pm

Only Democrats and the COX/AJC/WSB folks pretend to believe this bought and paid for poll.

Best for Georgia

October 19th, 2010
4:12 pm

We can only hope that Republicans can put the interests of Georgia ahead of loyalty to their party and stop short of voting for a snake like Deal. Please, dear Lord, let people wake up and vote for Roy.

yuzeyurbrane

October 19th, 2010
4:15 pm

Ralph, Matt Towery is former exec. dir. of Ga. Republican Party. If there is any bias, which I doubt, that suggests it would be in favor of Republicans. I do think Towery is intellectually honest enough to just be shaking his head and wondering how the Republicans painted themselves into a corner with Deal. In any reasonably educated state, Deal would be totally in the toilet by now.

Bill

October 19th, 2010
4:20 pm

Ralph: Only a polling outfit biased towards Republicans would have Shady Deal still ahead at this point.

Ramguy

October 19th, 2010
4:22 pm

I still think that Deal is going to win. Yeah I know, if it happens I will be the scratching my head like the rest the nation.

Really Red

October 19th, 2010
4:22 pm

Just saw Roys’ “Slings and Arrows” commercial. Loved it! So funny!! Thinking maybe Georgia doesn’t need a Bum Deal after all……

Tom

October 19th, 2010
4:26 pm

the slings and arrows commercial is an old one. Barnes copied it from somebody else

Tom

October 19th, 2010
4:29 pm

If Roy Barnes wins. He will be the Gov. in name only. Casey Cagle will really call the shots

BillS

October 19th, 2010
4:35 pm

It’s a dirty campaign, neither candidate deserves praise for the way they’ve conducted themselves. But Nathan Deal’s complicated, contorted finances and his insider dealings make me have second thoughts about him. I’m an independent who’s thinking about voting for Roy. Not an easy decision.

Drew

October 19th, 2010
4:39 pm

HEY HANDEL SUPPORTERS? WHO DO YOU WANT WRITING CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS? TO HELL WITH ROY BARNES

BillS

October 19th, 2010
4:41 pm

Drew, stop screaming at people. Look more closely at Deal before condemning Barnes. Don’t be a Republican in this case–be someone who uses his brain.

Ralph

October 19th, 2010
4:43 pm

That poll was paid for by WSB which is owned by Cox like the AJC. It has been consistently lower for Deal than other polls like Rasmussen which is ranked considerably higher for accuracy.

Deal has extremely high negatives (higher than Deal), and peaked in polling long ago. He only has a slight chance of forcing a runoff he will surely lose.

Just reading the “cross tabs” of the poll, you can see how they are pulling for Barnes.

Ralph

October 19th, 2010
4:45 pm

Obviously should have read Barnes has the high negatives.

khc

October 19th, 2010
4:48 pm

barnes would run rings around cagle but would likely work with ralston who half way got on his repub colleagues…..cagle….you gotta be kidding

Churchill's MOM

October 19th, 2010
4:53 pm

I am still a Handel supporter & would vote for her again if possible. After all the lies Deal told about her, I will NEVER vote for Deal. As 1 of my friends says Deal has more baggage that Delta Airlines. I’ll vote Monds in the general & Barnes in the run off. I hate Barnes but Deal is worse.

Bill

October 19th, 2010
4:56 pm

Ralph: Insider Advantage is controlled by Matt Towery. WSB radio is home to conservative demagogue talk. (Cox owns lots of media properties both left and right.) Rasmussen is basically the Republican polling company so of course, you would find it most accurate.

The race is tightening because voters are starting to focus on Deal’s shady dealings.

Bill

October 19th, 2010
4:58 pm

Drew: The legislature is responsible for redistricting.

Ga Values

October 19th, 2010
5:02 pm

What is the difference between Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA), Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), & Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)? Deal resigned rather than face trial.

15 MOST CORRUPT CONGRESSMEN

Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA)
Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL)
Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL)
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA)
Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL)
Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV)
Rep. John Murtha (D-PA)
Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY)
Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA)
Rep. Pete Visclosky (D-IN)
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)
Rep. Don Young (R-AK)

Ralph

October 19th, 2010
5:05 pm

Bill,

Rasmussen is NOT a Republican polling company – you are just making that up because you don’t like true results. Maybe some facts won’t get in the way of some others here:

Note that this website dedicated to rating pollsters has InsiderAdvantage only ahead of an internet poll which is certainly not scientific: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

June 06, 2010 http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/06/06/latest_pollster_ratings.html
Latest Pollster Ratings Nate Silver has compiled ratings for every major pollster and finds the Field Poll, Washington Post/ABC News and SurveyUSA to be at the top of the list. On the other end of the spectrum, Zogby Interactive, InsiderAdvantage and American Research Group rank as at the bottom.

Of the most prolific pollsters, Rasmussen has slipped but remains above average while Research 2000 now ranks considerably below average.

Bill

October 19th, 2010
5:11 pm

See Pollster.com: Rasmussen polls tend to be more pro-Republican than other polls
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201007150003

Aaron Burr V. Mexico

October 19th, 2010
5:16 pm

Saying Rasmussen is not a Republican polling company is like saying FOX news is not partisan.

Yeah, REPUBLICANS might not think that, but Democrats and most independents sure don’t. I mean it is only just a coincidence that 10 out of the 12 current major Republican hopefuls for President in 2012 have media deals with FOX. And the remaining two are millionaires….

Last Man Standing

October 19th, 2010
5:25 pm

You democrats can talk Barnes for the next two weeks. In the end, it will be Governor Deal. Folks aren’t “voting for anyone with an (R) after their name”, they are voting AGAINST EVERYONE with a (D) after their name. Democrats have no one to blame for this except themselves. Democrats gave us Obama, Pelosi and Reed and the electorate is going to express their appreciation on November 2nd and again in 2012!

Joyce M.

October 19th, 2010
5:32 pm

Nathan Deal is going to make a great governor for Georgia!

gm

October 19th, 2010
5:35 pm

Last man Standing” Thats President Obama, Rep are the one that ruined Ga and not the President its shows what a bunch of idiots you conservatives are.

By the way you have no one to beat President Obama in 2012, you and the rest of you idiots know Sara Palin the air head has no chance against him.

Dem are comming out in large no. we have seen those bigot tea baggars at Debates.

Bill

October 19th, 2010
5:36 pm

There could be a backlash this year because the economy is still weak. It probably won’t be as bad for the Democrats as it could have been due to the idiots the Republicans are running. However, if the best Repubs can offer are Deal, Boner, McConnell, Palin, ODonnell, etc., don’t get your hopes up for future election years.

Really Red

October 19th, 2010
5:38 pm

Deal or No Deal?
I want one of those Inside Deals.
Or a Big, Fat Deal for paying a 1% tax rate.
Don’t give me a Bum Deal where I pay the tax rate “the little people” pay
Deal me in, baby–Gimme Nathan’s Deal!!

Ralph

October 19th, 2010
5:39 pm

A poll being “more Republican”, but being more accurate only shows how most polls overstate Democrat voting. InsiderAdvantage is consistently skewed the farthest toward Democrats. They had Deal and Barnes in a dead heat last month. It is garbage, bought and paid for. In less than two weeks there will be a definitive poll, and then we will hear from InsiderAdvantage how hard it was to gauge the electorate and why they were so wrong.

Ralph

October 19th, 2010
5:44 pm

Anybody on here who thinks the Democrats will hold a majority of the U.S. House of Representatives? I don’t mean “hope”, but actually THINK all of the pollsters and legitimate pundits (I don’t mean Obama’s press secretary) are wrong.

Bill

October 19th, 2010
5:46 pm

Ralph: Wa? Most polls exclude cell phone only households that are more heavily Democratic. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1761/cell-phones-and-election-polls-2010-midterm-elections

techengineer

October 19th, 2010
5:48 pm

I’m a homosexual pervert and I desire to teach all the little boys and girls about gay sex during pre school and I prefer Democrats because they support my agenda.. especially Roy Barnes and Jim Marshall. And of my homosexual lover use to be Barry Obama.. Anyone ever heard of him? Tell him I miss him.

Larry Craig

October 19th, 2010
5:53 pm

techengineer – Lots of Republicans feel like you do. Give us a shot.

SICK REPUBLICAN

October 19th, 2010
5:58 pm

WHY IS IT THAT EVERY TIME A NEW CORRUPTION CHARGE COME UP ABOUT DEAL, REPUBLICANS BLAME IT ON THE MEDIA.FOR GOD’S SAKE WAKE UP.THE MAN IS A BONIFIED CROOK,EXCEPT IT.

Really Red

October 19th, 2010
6:00 pm

Come on, Sick, you aren’t being a very good Republican. Being a good GOPer means not being ashamed to be a good hypocrite! Get with the program!

findog

October 19th, 2010
6:01 pm

Tom @ 4:29
Cagle will only rule until he is taken down for illegal influence to help his neighbor Deal.
If he is lucky he will lose to Porter and the US Attorney in Atlanta will let him crawl away to mend his broken neck…

yuzeyurbrain

October 19th, 2010
6:07 pm

Ralph: kill the messenger!! I don’t know where you get your facts about Insider Advantage but they have been eerily accurate in Georgia elections for as long as I can remember them being in business. Unfortunately to me because I am a Barnes supporter, their track record has been so good that it worries me that they are still forecasting a Deal victory.

Last Man Standing

October 19th, 2010
6:14 pm

gm:

Nothing new there. Same name-calling idiocy usually displayed by this poster.

SICK REPUBLICAN:

Here’s a project for you. See if you can figure out how to disengage the “Caps Lock” on your keyboard. This should keep you occupied for the next two weeks!

Bill:

The 2012 contender has not been selected. It won’t take much to beat Obamalamadingdong!

John

October 19th, 2010
6:19 pm

Matt Towery is as red as they come and even they can’t hide how fast Deal is faltering.

John

October 19th, 2010
6:24 pm

Matt Towery is a hoot.

“The best way I can characterize this race is that Nathan Deal has been sort of the ‘gentleman candidate’ while Roy Barnes has attacked Deal with a continuing parade of issues.

LOL

findog

October 19th, 2010
6:29 pm

Rasmussen made his name by being the only pollster to get the 1994 election correct
He claims to be unbiased, and as Senate Minority Leader would say, I take him at his word…

findog

October 19th, 2010
6:38 pm

Last Man @ 5:25
It is the middle ground independents that determine elections
They gave us democratic congressional majorities in 2006
They extended those legislative percentages while bringing President Obama in to repair the damage that the ideologues you represent have perpetuated upon our nation.
Now if you and td have something to say, then say it, but we really do not need your idiotic cheerleading of an outcome you apparently feel if promulgated enough will come to be; click your heels and say: there’s no place like Georgia, there’s no place like Georgia, there’s no place like Georgia…

Vote split gov't!!!

October 19th, 2010
6:40 pm

Vote Barnes to keep a check on the Republican legislature. They both will equal out and have to keep an eye on each other.

dude

October 19th, 2010
6:50 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/10/06/us/as-incumbents-republicans-hold-advantage-in-18-races-for-governor.html?pagewanted=3

9/30/10: A poll conducted for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution last week gave Mr. Millner a lead over Mr. Barnes of 47 percent to 41 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/10/26/us/the-1998-campaign-georgia-republicans-looking-to-end-126-years-of-one-party-rule.html?pagewanted=2

10/26/10: The most recent independent polling gave Mr. Millner a lead of 45 percent to 42 percent

Barnes would win 52.5% to 44.1%. It’s deja vu all over again, Barnes outperformed his last poll numbers by 10.5%, Millner was just under 45. Deal is at 45 now. Makes you wonder.

dorothy strickland

October 19th, 2010
6:51 pm

My niece in Gainesville says Casey has a “zipper” problem. Is that true?

Bobby Anthony

October 19th, 2010
6:51 pm

Vote Deal to keep Barnes out of the governors mansion.

dude

October 19th, 2010
6:54 pm

There’s a caveat to this poll, it was “a survey conducted Monday night.”

dude

October 19th, 2010
6:54 pm

Vote Deal so Georgia runs out of money faster.

concerned independent

October 19th, 2010
6:57 pm

I am an independent with a conservative leanings and I am very concerned about Nathan Deal as governor. I agree with several of his policies and his plans for increasing employment. However, where there is smoke, there is fire and he seems to be surrounded by smoke. If he can’t handle his own business or personal affairs in a effective and transparent manner, how can he be trusted with ours? If it was one or two issues, we could write it off on the media, but he continues to have issues surface. I believe in party loyalty but we can’t put the well being of the state in jeopardy, especially in this economy.