Rasmussen poll: Roy Barnes has a tough row to hoe

A new, day-after-the-vote poll from Rasmussen Reports:

[R]egardless of which Republican wins the run-off, Democrat Roy Barnes finds himself in a close race as he seeks to reclaim the title of Governor.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds that Barnes earns 44% of the vote if Karen Handel is the Republican nominee and 43% if Nathan Deal is his opponent.

Handel earns 45% of the vote against Barnes while Deal picks up 49%.

The automated poll was conducted on Wednesday, and has an MOE of 3 percent. These may be the more important numbers:

Handel is viewed as politically conservative by 44% of Georgia voters, moderate by 30% and liberal by 14%.

For Deal, those numbers are 54% conservative, 21% moderate and 11% liberal.

Barnes is seen as liberal by 37% and moderate by 44%.

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90 comments Add your comment

lmno

July 22nd, 2010
2:49 pm

It will be close in November. There will be attempts to discredit the GOP Nominee. How successful those attempts are remains to be seen.

Additionally, it always comes down to turn out. I think that right now, its safe to say that GOP voters are more motivated than Democrat, but that too, could change.

No King Roy

July 22nd, 2010
2:59 pm

Nathan Deal beats Roy Barnes 49% to 43%. Karen Handel wins 45% to 44%. Margin of error 3%. For anyone who does not want to see 4 more years of Roy Barnes, it looks like Nathan Deal is your only safe bet.

Icarus

July 22nd, 2010
3:01 pm

Handel has had almost $2 Million in negative ads, robo calls, and direct mail aimed at her over the past two weeks, and remains quite viable. Deal has receieved $0 of negative ads/calls/mail, yet has plenty of fodder available. It’s not how these candidates will stack up today, but how they’ll look after Barnes spends his money. I doubt Deal’s numbers hold anywhere near this level after a few million of negative ads aimed his way. Handel remains the stronger general election candidate.

Go Roy.

July 22nd, 2010
3:02 pm

4 more years of Roy would be a welcome reprieve compared to what has happened under the GOP for the last 7.

Real Georgia Values

July 22nd, 2010
3:02 pm

Insert another generic lie from a paid Handel staffer attacking Nathan Deal. Her staff thinks that if they keep repeating their lies that people might actually start to believe them.

Noo Raw Deal, Noooo King Roy

July 22nd, 2010
3:03 pm

Looks like someone is trying to steal my last name, shame on you.

THE NAME SAYS IT ALL.

Sonny Perdue

July 22nd, 2010
3:06 pm

I endorse Karen Handel and am actually her campaign’s finance chair.

WAW

July 22nd, 2010
3:08 pm

Rasmussen polls have come into question of late and does not subscribe to the standards most pollsters adhere to. The “whoever answers and pushes the button” approach used places a shadow of doubt on the results. True Barnes will have an uphill battle in November but it will be against out of state Republicans not Handle or Deal who will become puppets of the machine.

AH

July 22nd, 2010
3:10 pm

wait till you see the poll after the run off. Who ever wins in the runoff will run away with the race at that point. Barnes is looking at a 66-33 loss in November.

Ivory

July 22nd, 2010
3:24 pm

I am confident that King Roy got the votes that he received to keep Thurbert Baker from the job…….the winner of the run off will be your next Governor…….take it to the bank!

songbird

July 22nd, 2010
3:26 pm

WAW is right about Rasmussen’s polling methods. They are highly questionable. They don’t use life people to ask the questions. Whoever answers the phone can either take the poll or hang up. They don’t call cell phones, only landlines, etc., so they don’t really get a good read on voters. I would wait for more polling from other firms that use better methods to see what the real numbers look like. Real Clear Politics website is a good one for looking at all the polling.

DannyX

July 22nd, 2010
3:26 pm

As WAW pointed out Rasmussen is suspect. They fared the worst leading up to the Georgia primary. Just last Thursday Rasmussen had Handle and Deal tied at 25% each.

The Insider Atlanta poll taken at about the same time had Handle up by 11%. Handle won 33%-23%, a 10% gap.

Rasmussen wasn’t close.

Eric

July 22nd, 2010
3:26 pm

I’d eat a bug before I’d vote for Horrible Handel or Nasty Nathan! Their brand of conservatism is disgusting.

Rob Vinson

July 22nd, 2010
3:29 pm

Amen Go Barnes. I can’t wait until that dolt is out of office. Sharjah embarrassment he has been for the
State. Imalsomdont like how he’s treated the job as part time and kept his personal businesses going. Barnes didn’t do that last time around.

Rob Vinson

July 22nd, 2010
3:29 pm

Amen Go Barnes. I can’t wait until that dolt is out of office. Sharjah embarrassment he has been for the
State. I also don’t like how he’s treated the job as part time and kept his personal businesses going. Barnes didn’t do that last time around.

A CONSERVATIVE

July 22nd, 2010
3:31 pm

BELIEVE YOU ME……AJC WILL TRY TO DISCREDIT THE REPUBLIVAN NOMNEE….AJC STILL SEEKS TO HAVE CLOUT IN GEORGIA..EVEN AS THE PAPER DIES.

Sally

July 22nd, 2010
3:31 pm

Of course, this far out in the primary John Oxendine was a shoe in for the Republican nomination according to the polls. We all know where that landed him on election day. November is a lifetime away in the political world so I wouldn’t read too much into any polls being done right now. I won’t be voting for Roy, but I assure you Roy is a tough opponent when he is energized. And he is energized for this race.

RUKiddingMe?

July 22nd, 2010
3:32 pm

It’ll be a close vote, granted. The question will be do we want more of the same – improved fishin’ holes with cushy jobs for cronies or improved infrastructure and jobs for everyone else. None of them can be considered truly free of ethical issues, and one does stand out in the shady Deals.
Having a governor that has the gonads to do what he/she thinks is right, instead of making lists and ignoring them would be a breath of fresh air. I wonder which one(s) would go so far…

If they get involved in personal religious and social issues, it’ll make the state look even more backward, and thwart business from coming here!

Ben

July 22nd, 2010
3:32 pm

Those numbers are shocking considering the shape Sonny has put our state in. Why would anyone want more of the same? It’s madness.

A CONSERVATIVE

July 22nd, 2010
3:34 pm

BLACKS in ATLANTA WILL FOLLOW THE AJC blindly…..& vote BARNES…DEMOCRAT….IT NEVER FAILS..

RUKiddingMe?

July 22nd, 2010
3:35 pm

Hey “A” – are all conservatives as racially motivated as you? I sure hope not.

dawg

July 22nd, 2010
3:36 pm

Does anyone know of a solution that will remove Roy Barnes’ lips from the butts of the school teachers union ??

Uncle Jessie

July 22nd, 2010
3:39 pm

The key swing vote in this hyar govs race gonna be them good ole boys down below the gnat line if you wants to pull ‘em yore way I suggest you make a stop down in Dexter at the Possum Hollow fair and gets yore picture made wit the Gen Lee and Daisy Duke. Ya’ll missed out on the RedNeck Games in East Dublin last week, You could a got a lot a exposure and sent the right message,
Yee Haw

bart

July 22nd, 2010
3:48 pm

Nathan Deal is a crook, plain and simple. He resigned from Congress to escape ethics violations charges and was named one of the 15 most corrupt members of Congress. If we elect him Governor, we’ll get what we deserve.

Rickster

July 22nd, 2010
3:50 pm

The poll may have a moe of 3 percent, but it has a curly of 5.2%, a larry of 13.5%, and a shemp of 47.1%. :-)

JDW

July 22nd, 2010
3:51 pm

So would Georgia voters really elect the most corrupt congressman in Washington Governor?

http://www.crewsmostcorrupt.org/node/2057

Or would they elect possibly the only Governor in the US with no college education?

Roy is looking better and better.

yo dawg

July 22nd, 2010
3:52 pm

FYI – there are no teachers unions in Georgia.

Get informed or do everyone else a favor and don’t vote.

Dave Dawg

July 22nd, 2010
3:52 pm

OK, now let Handel and Deal spend all their money beating each other up (just like Cox and Taylor did in 2006), then let Barnes begin spending real money to get his message out, and we’ll see where those number stand in three months…

Roy Barnes- the Grover Cleveland of Georgia

July 22nd, 2010
3:55 pm

I wonder if GDOT saved the “Roy Barnes, Governor” placards from the welcome signs. If he gets re-elected, it will save the state millions!

Tosh.No

July 22nd, 2010
3:56 pm

Agreeing with Bart, Deal is a corrupt POS and if he gets elected I will move.

Good ol Gal

July 22nd, 2010
3:57 pm

I’m surprised you’re quoting pollsters Jimmy. Didn’t we learn anything from all the earlier polls that showed Oxendine with a commanding lead vs. all comers. Ha ha, we all know what happened there.

Good ol Gal

July 22nd, 2010
4:04 pm

What is Rasmussen anyway? I think I used to it for a cough- or was it Robocalls?

November will bring a shock

July 22nd, 2010
4:06 pm

November will be unpredictable. The GOP has done a horrible job in Georgia in the last eight years. Now the GOP in Washington is playing a game to help win Congressional seats in November with the unemployment extension. The unemployed are not Democrats, they are a mix of people from all walks and are smarter then the GOP is expecting. 10% of the country is unemployed plus the at least that many are UNDER employed. If you look at it as 15% of the country falls into that category then there is a HIGHLY motivated block of voters that will remember this game that was played with their lives. You have to be foolish if you think this group wont come out in force to vote against any GOPer they can. The Republican party may be on the ropes and don’t know it. They have the Tea Party eating them from within and now the debacle of the Bush years followed by the handling of the unemployment extension and they seem as obtuse as can be. Too bad both parties have done all they can do to keep independents from running, independents more than anything is what this country needs. The 2 parties care for their own power and wealth nothing else.

Danielle

July 22nd, 2010
4:07 pm

To A Conservative-
You are racist and disgusting. What do you know about Blacks? We are intelligent enough to vote for
the best candidate. You people vote otherwise.

Be careful

July 22nd, 2010
4:10 pm

Teachers did the right thing years ago when they created a block to get King Roy out of office. It doesn’t matter how many empty promises King Roy is making to teachers now…..he remembers whose giant middle finger was responsible for removing him from office, and he will give one right back if he is voted Governor again.

kinsi

July 22nd, 2010
4:13 pm

uh, this is kind of a misleading headline, no?

Handle-Barns is 45-44 ? Thats a tough row to hoe? Thats well under the margin of error, and come on, a 1 point race isn’t a tough row to hoe.

Deal-Barns is 49-43, 6 point spread, which although bad isn’t the world’s most terrible.

I clicked on this article because of the headline…which is just frankly misleading when looking at the data you present.

samiam

July 22nd, 2010
4:14 pm

The Ox was a classic case of someone being in position to blackmail folks for money(insurance industry)but you can’t control them when they go into the voting booth.Turnout in November will ultimately be decided by that days weather.Minorities classically won’t go vote if it’s raining.It’s a well known fact,like it or not.

Not impressed

July 22nd, 2010
4:14 pm

I’m not impressed with Georgia Teachers based on their students record when compared nationally. Then their biggest claim to fame is the fact that they formed block to oust a governor who supported doing away with tenure and pay based on results of student performance.

To samiam

July 22nd, 2010
4:17 pm

That’s probably why they chose November to hold elections to keep the rif-raf away.

Good ol Gal

July 22nd, 2010
4:22 pm

Breaking News: Sherrod offered job as Mayor of Chicago.

khc

July 22nd, 2010
4:24 pm

unfortunately there are a lot of goat ropers in ga’s population

First Sergeant

July 22nd, 2010
4:24 pm

A CONSERVATIVE

July 22nd, 2010
3:34 pm
BLACKS in ATLANTA WILL FOLLOW THE AJC blindly…..& vote BARNES…DEMOCRAT….IT NEVER FAILS..

So, what do you suggest? Voting Republican? You must be sick or mentally ill!

Captain

July 22nd, 2010
4:25 pm

The GOP playing politics with unemployment? Yeah, right. All Obama had to do was agree to move $38 Billion from his Stiumlus Slush Fund or agree to a 1% cut in His and the Democrats Budget. Instead they pushed for MORE deficit spending and chose to politicize the process. The GOP was never opposed to extending unemployment, they opposed more deficit spending with $300 Billion of slush fund stimulus money sitting around.

AS to the Governor’s race, I certainly hope whomever is the Republican nominee will remind voters and taxpayers in this state about Roy Barnes lawsuits challenging the Voter Identification law. Ms Handel was Secretary of State thus she is very familiar. For those who don’t know, Mr Barnes sued the state alleging the requirement to produce a valid photo ID in order to vote was discriminatory, even though the State of Georgia law provided that those without a driver’s license would be furnished (at no cost) a photo voter ID. Mr Barnes felt it should be easier to vote in Georgia than to buy liquor, or cash a check, or borrow money (photo ID required on loans), or board an airline. Does it make sense to a reasonable person that it ought to be more difficult to buy a bottle of liquor than to vote? What did King Roy’s lawsuit cost us? Is it true Roy favors allowing convicted felons to vote?

I also have to wonder, are there any Mercedes Benz automobiles rolling off the assembly line at the plant Roy broke ground on 10 days before he was beaten in his re-election bid? You do remember that don’t you? Down around Savannah, Roy made a big production out of it, but the plant never was built. Now a Kia plant was built in West Point, but Roy had nothing to do with it.

The Goobernator

July 22nd, 2010
4:25 pm

The tag line should read ‘a tough ho to tow’

Chris

July 22nd, 2010
4:25 pm

Not sure the “experienced” approach will work. What did they accomplish before?

Mugwump

July 22nd, 2010
4:26 pm

I just don’t think shady Deals name will be on the November ballot. He hasn’t dazzeled anyone with his brilliance and most voters have wisened up to his BS. Handle or Roy for Govenor of Georgia, OMG. If so, perhaps we should rename the gold dome to Pee Wees Playhouse.

The Real Politico

July 22nd, 2010
4:26 pm

Drill down.:27% have a very favorable opinion of Barnes as opposed to 15% for Handel and 12% for Deal.
That row can and will be howed.

The Real Politico

July 22nd, 2010
4:28 pm

Anyone who thinks Barnes will lose 66-33% is from New York and should go back!

Don't understad

July 22nd, 2010
4:28 pm

I will never get why so many people from Georgia who make less then 50k a year, who don’t attend church, who are under educated are so beholden to the GOP. These are the same people who are going to rely heavily on Social Security as part of their retirement Medicare for health care and all kinds of City, County and Sate funded programs, facilities and assistance. How can you be foolish enough to think Republicans want you to have any of those things? Why can’t you see that they do all they can to block all of these type programs and then vote for those same people. It’s either a statement of stupidity or just doing as those around you are doing because you just don’t know what you are saying yes to.

CHIEF OF SMOKE

July 22nd, 2010
4:30 pm

Too Bad that Roy lost the case to outlaw voter ID’s in Georgia.

It will be an uphill battle for him now that voters actualy have to show identification to vote

He preferred the old fashion way of paying liberals to vote multiple times