WXIA/V-103 poll: ATL mayor’s runoff a dead heat

The Atlanta mayoral runoff has become a dead-heat, according to the latest poll sponsored by WXIA-TV and radio station V-103.

SurveyUSA, conductor of the poll, gives former state senator Kasim Reed a nominal 49 percent to 46 percent advantage over Councilwoman Mary Norwood, within the survey’s 4.5 percent margin of error.

Norwood is precisely where she was the week before the first round of voting on Nov. 3. Reed pulled 36 percent of ballots in the first round.

You can consider this week the last before voters begin to unplug for the Thanksgiving holidays. So the poll is significant. But its true importance — and its accuracy — is hard to gauge, simply because turnout for a vote five days after T-Day is likely to be so darned small, and thus, volatile.

One caveat: the SurveyUSA poll presumes that African Americans will make up 58 percent of the turnout, and that white voters will be 38 percent.

SurveyUSA has posted the details here. Included in the analysis:

[U]nderneath the surface, the results paint a picture of two different Atlantas. White Atlanta backs Norwood 4:1. Black Atlanta backs Reed 3:1. Wealthy Atlanta backs Norwood. Less wealthy Atlanta backs Reed. College grads back Norwood. Those who have not graduated from college back Reed.

Those who voted for Lisa Borders in the general go 2:1 for Reed in the runoff.

For instant updates, follow me on Twitter.

145 comments Add your comment

Cutty

November 16th, 2009
1:44 pm

Reed supporter

November 16th, 2009
1:45 pm

Look this where it should be Reed is in lead with the polls he gaining more and more votes.I just read the rich is supporting Norwood I bet you that the Republicans are switching over to vote for Mary Norwood.
Mary Norwood is not for the poor people of Atlanta

Donny Fairplay

November 16th, 2009
1:46 pm

Getting my popcorn ready for the race war. Should I bring my marshmellows? Do you think there will be fires?

Reed supporter

November 16th, 2009
1:50 pm

The way Norwood supporters are they will through race in it. Reed will just do a good job by talking about the issues in Atlanta.

Donny Fairplay

November 16th, 2009
1:52 pm

@Reed supporter, apparently the ignorant and illiterate are supporting Reed too.

AH

November 16th, 2009
2:04 pm

Most likely the race is about dead even, but this is a bad poll and I was looking forward to digesting some good polling numbers today. I don’t think there is much to be done for either one of the candidates at this point other then try and get voters to the polls.

In the mean time lets all try and get some help for “Reed supporter”

“1,000 city of Atlanta adults were interviewed 11/12/09 through 11/15/09. Of them, 890 were registered to vote. Of them, 499 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the runoff. In SurveyUSA’s turnout model, 58% of voters are black, 38% of voters are white. If blacks turn out in larger numbers, Reed will outperform the poll numbers shown here. If whites turn out in larger numbers, Norwood will outperform the poll numbers shown here.”

Reed supporter

November 16th, 2009
2:04 pm

Donny you are very ignorant and you probably racist. Wow that why Norwood is losen now because ignorant people like you are supporting her. Reed is coming out strong everything dont have to be about race.
If Norwood have done alot for Atlanta in 8 years I would have supported her but what have she done nothing. I am going to get out the early votes for Reed.

Beth

November 16th, 2009
2:07 pm

Kasim Reed is on fire! The electorate is finally calling Mary Norwood’s bluff

Reed supporter

November 16th, 2009
2:08 pm

AH let get you some help because why are you talking about who coming out in large number whites or blacks it does not matter. Both candidates have mix race voting for them.

Buckhead Bill

November 16th, 2009
2:11 pm

Anyone who votes for Mary Norwood just because she’s white is an idiot. This city is facing some very complex issues and anyone who has heard her speak knows she doesn’t have the intellectual depth to help us.

Midtown for Reed

November 16th, 2009
2:22 pm

Thanks Buckhead Bill even Buckhead resident is waken up to see Norwood is not a candidate for mayor.

Formerly RJ

November 16th, 2009
2:23 pm

A three-point spread with a margin of error of 4.5, and, if you look at the survey results, 5% are undecided. In other words, it all comes down to voter turnout. Fortunately, Mary Norwood’s supporters (black and white) tend to be better educated, more conscientious, and, consequently, more likely to vote.

Unless Kasim starts paying people to vote, or rounding up the vagrants on Pine St. and hauling them to the voting station, my money is on Norwood being the next mayor.

Midtown for Reed

November 16th, 2009
2:27 pm

RJ that was very racist to say look that why we would see if the people chose Norwood

Reuben

November 16th, 2009
2:29 pm

It sounds like the cliquish, rap-loving, V-103 crowd wins again. 4 more years of the ATL.

AH

November 16th, 2009
2:35 pm

NO RS it’s a bad poll due to the methodology used. I don’t dispute the overall premise that it is roughly 50-50 who will win. But this poll told us nothing and it has nothing to do with race, it has to do with the limited data. You ended up with a 58/38 split because they couldn’t get a larger sample size. 1000 to start with and you ended up only using 499 of those. I’m not concerned about black vs white showing up in Dec. because that isn’t what will determine the winner, it will be who the people trust more simple as that.

And Reed Supporter I think you need to look into some adult education classes, check your local library they typically have that information handy.

Jackalope

November 16th, 2009
2:44 pm

So let’s get this straight:
- The poll assumes African Americans will show up 20% higher than whites in the run off (HA! ask Jim Martin)
- Reed went negative and had the help of the GA Democratic party to go Negative against Norwood
-Reed has spent the last 2 weeks racking up endorsement after endorsement

AND NORWOOD IS STILL AT HER 46% OF THE VOTE??!?!!!!!!!!!!

Reed is NOT going to be peeling away Norwood supporters – this will be 100% about turn out. And if history is any judge…Mayor Elect Norwood will be giving her acceptance speech in time for the 10 o’clock news.

That's What I Was Telling You Before

November 16th, 2009
2:47 pm

Kasim will win, unqualified people will continue to run the city, and life will go on in Atlanta, Georgia. Kasim is playing smart because he can’t come out and attack little ol’ Mary. He is too busy greasing the gears of the “Machine,” turning and churning it until Dec. 1!

Midtown for Reed

November 16th, 2009
2:56 pm

Midtown are coming out strong for Reed wow you should have seen all the Reed supporters at Piedmont Park Sunday. Everyone was saying we want Reed. Where was Mary Norwood no where to be found.

AJ

November 16th, 2009
2:57 pm

There is a very simple comparison that each and every person voting on December 1st should be able to form. Place each candidate side-by-side and list the attributes and characteristics of each candidate. If black and white are at the top of your list, you are ignorant. For me, as a voter, I have seen two important characteristics since Nov. 3rd. One candidate is out in the neighborhoods just as she has been for 20 years. The other candidate is collecting endorsements. Dig into the facts. One in five contributors to Kasim Reed are connected to contracts with the Atlanta airport. That connection alone is cronyism at it’s best. As for endorsements, it shouldn’t take any thinking or rational person to remember Roy Barnes and the widely covered corruption (2002) related to land deals involving the Northern Arc. If the City of Atlanta wants to remain status quo or, God forbid, head to the depths of what Detroit or New Orleans has become in terms of lingering and rising poverty joined up with lingering and rising crime, then Reed will be elected. If the City of Atlanta is truly interested in change and moving forward as a best-class city, then Norwood will be elected.

Harry

November 16th, 2009
2:58 pm

This race is ONLY about turnout. No other story to be told.

John Doe

November 16th, 2009
3:06 pm

This is actually good news for Norwood, as her supporters are more likely to show up and vote. It’s funny some of Reed’s supporters are saying only whites are playing the race card, first off the poll shows blacks are 3:1 supporting Reed…How’s that not racial???

Additionally blacks have overwhelmingly supported every black mayoral candidate since Jackson, hence why Massell was defeated for his reelection in the 70s, and why no white candidate has been elected since, thanks to the Jackson corrupt political machine. Now that white flight ended this will no longer be enough, if not this time it’s a matter of time before a white person will once again be mayor. Why can’t both races finally live together and share political power in our city? What happened to the city too busy to hate???

Finally, why is it so bad that the more affluent and educated support Norwood??? The upper middle and upper class is what pays the most in taxes in the city…Why can’t Buckhead ever be recognized as important? Calling Norwood a “Buckhead Betty” is typical of ignorance.

Vote for change, vote for Norwood…
Say no to the Reed-Jackson political machine

Midtown for Mary Norwood

November 16th, 2009
3:08 pm

@Reed supporter – You’re fooling yourself if you don’t think your candidate is not stoking the flames of racism to get the few extra votes. Look at all the churches (who don’t pay taxes) jumping in full force to the political field to support Reed. Just pathetic how reverse racism works in this town. It’d be good to see a candidate pull this town together, but this is the South and racism is alive and kickin.

John Doe

November 16th, 2009
3:11 pm

Sad but true Midtown for Mary….For some reason people don’t see reverse racism which exists here as racism…
Racism is racism period…Two wrongs don’t make a right…
I’m tired of the racism both sides display in Atlanta politics…
Everyone is friends with one another outside, but in the polling booths on election day in Atlanta, everyone (both races) play the race game…
I support Norwood as I want change..>I’m tired of the Jackson political machine ruining our city…

For Real!!!

November 16th, 2009
3:12 pm

John Doe, you do realize Norwood CANNOT win without the black vote. Way to make blacks more inclined to vote for your candidate.

william

November 16th, 2009
3:13 pm

Who are the illegals voting for in this election? How close a race this is without ACORN! I guess the dead will not rise and vote this time around. I am sure there is hope on the horizon! I can see this race tightening up to 49% to 48% then come the racist organiztions out to empty the nursing homes or there will be a sudden burst of abscentee ballots filling the void. Yep, just another day in the arm pits of ATLANTA! You WILL get what you deserve, I have not doubts about it.

John Doe

November 16th, 2009
3:15 pm

For Real, what did I say that was offensive to the black voters??? I said Norwood’s supporters are more likely to go to the polls…Where did I say blacks aren’t likely to go to the polls??? Don’t play that game with me my friend…

For Real!!!

November 16th, 2009
3:15 pm

AJ- Where are the facts to backup your airport contracts statement?

where's jessie spikes & clark howard???

November 16th, 2009
3:15 pm

man – wish jessie spikes were still in the race – he’s absolutely right… both buckhead and south atlanta is being ill-served by the city government… there’s no need for a divide, everyone’s dealing w/ a bad government. also – I wish clark howard had run… yeah – he’s prolly way 2 republican 4 me… and he’d prolly want 2 privatize stuff i am not comfortable privatizing… but I truly think he would know what to do to increase business in the city limits.

J. Mae Buckner

November 16th, 2009
3:16 pm

The big deal about the Atlanta mayoral election is that neither one of the candidiates are the Best for the city of Atlanta. What Atlanta needs in terms of a Mayor is a person that has the knowledge to navigate us out of this mess and I mean mess. The problems are mounting in Atlanta and must be addressed and not feigned off in denial, we are in a CRISIS, look around and you see and ride over pot holes; the sewage line incomplete; the housing crisis; the educational system failures; the parks and recreational facilities; the lack of programs for Seniors, children and families; lack of housing for low income residents; the fire and police departments; City Government daily blunders; fire and police departments; homeless problems; drug brokering and dealings and a host of other ills. We need superman or superwoman and a team of great men and women from all walks of lefe to pull us from this HELL we are steadfastenly falling into. I recommend Councilman KWANZAA HALL. He knows what it takes to pull a team together that are competent and strong to carry out the missions of the city charter and the goals to continue to make ATLANTA the place to be and live and the envy of the world for a governemnt that works for the people.

btw william

November 16th, 2009
3:17 pm

william by the way – it’s not “just another day in the ATL” it’s “another OPENING day in the ATL” coz every day is an opening day.

Lee

November 16th, 2009
3:18 pm

If the Republicans would have came out and voted for Norwood in the primary there would notbe a run-off. However, I still believe Marry wiil pul out with the diversity of voter support she will get. The “old vanguard” of arrogant black contractors really running the city is played out. Black people in Atlanta are finally starting to understand their game. They get rich off tax payer financed minority contracts and they do nothing in return for the residents of this city but flash their money and arrogance to the black community. They are no different than rich whites. The people will decide this election. They are “poverty pimping” the black community of Atlanta. There are no good candidates in this election. I PRAY FOR US ALL IF ANY OF THEM WIN.

For Real!!!

November 16th, 2009
3:20 pm

John Doe, we’re not friends because you’re using an alias and I have no idea who you are.

You said: “It’s funny some of Reed’s supporters are saying only whites are playing the race card, first off the poll shows blacks are 3:1 supporting Reed…How’s that not racial???”

Galloway’s thorough analysis of the election data from November 3rd clearly showed that more blacks voted for Norwood than whites for any other candidate combined. SO you “blacks will only vote for blacks” analogy is way off. If anything, BASED ON FACTS from the general election, blacks are more inclined to vote for a white candidate than vice versa.

You ask why can’t all races share power in the city AFTER you make the claim that blacks will only vote for blacks. You have your poll of 1,000 voters. I have an analysis of every precinct in the city and how they voted. My friend.

MIchelle

November 16th, 2009
3:20 pm

MY FAMILY SUPPORTS & WILL VOTE FOR ‘KASIM REED’ GOOD LUCK :)

Lee

November 16th, 2009
3:23 pm

If Reed wins this is going to be a BIG embarrassment to Atlanta as if we needed more to be embarrased about …. remember the 1996 Olympics with Bill Campbell at the helm? Even though Obama was elected President, this will show that most African-Americans will simply not go for a white mayor because of the race issue. I hate to know that this election has made the news all across our country and beyond. When will supporters of the Jackson-Campbell-Franklin regime ever wake up? My guess is most won’t.

AH

November 16th, 2009
3:26 pm

HA HA HA HA, I guess Kwanza will be the next BIG endorsement for Reed. If I were him I’d be careful with that.

Midtown for Reed

November 16th, 2009
3:27 pm

Wow look still talking about race card, look Norwood is a nice lady but she is not the best candidate for this job. I dont trust Norwood and like foreal said she can not win the election without the black votes yall better wake up before yall make some of them black voters turn against norwood and starts to vote Reed.

Greg P.

November 16th, 2009
3:28 pm

People of Atlanta want to keep it a chocolate city like New Orleans. The people will never wake up. The Jackson-Campbell-Franklin machine has done nothing for this city. Call like it is..it will be decided on race.It will be a shame if Reed is elected. Borders would never have supported Norwood. Barnes supports him because he needs him, these are same folks that still think Vick should still be with the Falcons. What a friend we have in Jesus

John Doe

November 16th, 2009
3:31 pm

For Real, yes, Norwood will win because people are tired of politics as usual (Jackson Machine). Norwood has never played the race card. She has been out in Southwest Atlanta campaigning hard. But many call her a Buckhead Betty making it sound like she ignores Southwest Atlanta…It’s a non-partisan election yet everyone is labeling her a Repub…

I just want to get you on the record, you don’t believe this runoff sadly has racism from both white and black voters??? I slammed both races in my above post because I think it’s time we all get along…
What say you?

Midtown for Reed

November 16th, 2009
3:32 pm

Greg why all the Bill Campbell and Franklin staff on Norwood campaign staff like Zee bradford ..Do your research Greg.

Formerly RJ

November 16th, 2009
3:33 pm

@Midtown,

There was absolutely nothing racist about my comment. I clearly stated that Norwood’s supporters– both black and white– are more likely to vote because they are educated and conscientious.

Reed, on the other hand, tends to be supported by less well-educated and, consequently, less conscientious individuals. Therefore, he will need to motivate people to vote.

Please refrain from imputing racism where it does not exist.

NotAtlanta

November 16th, 2009
3:34 pm

The ignorance portrayed daily on V-103 (especially the Frank & Wanda show) is an embarrassment to many Atlantans. I don’t trust any political poll in which they are affiliated. I’m not voting for Reed because he’s associated with Shirley Franklin who’s a lousy mayor — for Cascade Heights and all of the city. Mary Norwood all the way!

For Real!!!

November 16th, 2009
3:37 pm

These people talking about the ‘Jackson Machine’ act as if this is Chicago or New York. The Daley Machine of Chicago is a MACHINE. People like myself are implants and have a vague idea who Maynard Jackson is, other than being the first black mayor. A MACHINE as some like to call it, has the goal of getting people to “vote early and vote often!” In Chicago, the alderman can make the call and get out votes in their district. No one has that kind of clout or street money to hand out in return for votes so just end the ‘Machine’ noise.

Roy Barnes and Jim Martin must be racists too then since they endorsed Reed?

Mary Norwood is not the best candidate, period. I’m still waiting for a supporter to described ONE substantial piece of legislation she was written and had passed in her 8 years on the city council. Just one, thats all. Talking to constituents is well and good, but what concrete actions has she accomplished in 8 years? No one has yet to answer that simple question.

For Real!!!

November 16th, 2009
3:38 pm

John Doe….. Campaigning in SW and getting things done in SW are two entirely different things. Of course she campaigns there because she needs the votes.

Voter

November 16th, 2009
3:39 pm

You’re all idiots!!!

FALCONS SORRY

November 16th, 2009
3:40 pm

MARY NORWOOD CAN NOT BE MAYER OF ATLANTA. HOW CAN A WOMAN THAT DRIVE A OLD HOOPTEE MAKE ME THINK SHE QUALIFIED TO BE MAYER? MAYNAR JACKSON WOULD BE ROLLING IN HIS GRAVE RIGHT NOW IF HE WASN’T CRAMMED SO TIGHT IN THAT COFFIN ! ATLANTA IS A CHOCOLATE CITY AND WHITE CHOCOLATE IS NOT AS POPLAR !
JUST LIKE MATTY NOODLE ARM RYAN IS A BUST SO WOULD NORWOOD IF ELECTED.
CAN YOU SEE IT NOW, MARY NORWOOD HOOPTEE BRAKING DOWN ON THE WAY TO CITY HALL? SHE NEED TO RIDE CLEAN IN A PIMP MOBILE LIKE KISSEEM REED !

william

November 16th, 2009
3:41 pm

Hey Atlanta is the scene for CNN is it not? Why did they fire Lou Dobbs? Was it a kind of racist thing too? No one seems to be discussing it. Why?

Midtown for Reed

November 16th, 2009
3:43 pm

For Foreal these are Mary Norwood ignorant supporter you can not explain to them that Norwood have done nothing like you said what have she pass since she been in cith hall for 8yrs nothing. Her commercial stated what she going to do but it dont take 8 yrs to fix the crime , fix pot holes and to reopen recreation center back up. Norwood why did you pass the furloughs in police dept.

Concerned about Atlanta

November 16th, 2009
3:45 pm

I know everyone has divided into their opposing camps, but is it really possible that Atlanta may elect a man who has made his living working to deny civil rights to minorities, women and gays?

Has it really come to that in the birthplace of MLK? This is a travesty.

Where are the King Family and Joseph Lowery.

BREAKING: Reed Fought Workers for Corporations as Attorney –

http://www.atlantaprogressivenews.com/news/0546.html

Puhleeze

November 16th, 2009
3:48 pm

An empty Business skirt= Norwood

Marc

November 16th, 2009
3:53 pm

I find this poll a bit dubious. 23% of its likely voters either did not vote on November 3 or aren’t sure whether they did or not. The survey isn’t detailed enough to see how individuals who voted for Keyser or Spikes are likely to vote, but if you look at voters who actually voted on November 3 for one of the top 3 candidates, Norwood would lead in this poll 50-46. For people who did not vote, weren’t sure, or voted for a non-Top 3 candidate (Non-Top 3 Voters), they would have to favor Reed 55-34 to make the poll’s results work. While I can’t figure our how Keyser/Spike voters said they are liely to vote, they only make up 14% of Non-Top 3 Voters, As a result, this poll’s results are greatly affected by people who didn’t vote on November 3 or can’t remember whether they did or not who support Reed by an overwhelming majority.

In all, it points to the key finding, Reed can’t win with the electorate that showed up on November 3 and must get out more people. This “within-the-margin-of-error” poll shows that he barely wins if 23% of the voters are new (assuming he can hold on to the same percentage of November 3 voters as Norwood does). I doubt this will happen based on historical trends and see this poll as a good sign for Norwood.