SurveyUSA, conductor of the poll, gives former state senator Kasim Reed a nominal 49 percent to 46 percent advantage over Councilwoman Mary Norwood, within the survey’s 4.5 percent margin of error.
Norwood is precisely where she was the week before the first round of voting on Nov. 3. Reed pulled 36 percent of ballots in the first round.
You can consider this week the last before voters begin to unplug for the Thanksgiving holidays. So the poll is significant. But its true importance — and its accuracy — is hard to gauge, simply because turnout for a vote five days after T-Day is likely to be so darned small, and thus, volatile.
One caveat: the SurveyUSA poll presumes that African Americans will make up 58 percent of the turnout, and that white voters will be 38 percent.
SurveyUSA has posted the details here. Included in the analysis:
[U]nderneath the surface, the results paint a picture of two different Atlantas. White Atlanta backs Norwood 4:1. Black Atlanta backs Reed 3:1. Wealthy Atlanta backs Norwood. Less wealthy Atlanta backs Reed. College grads back Norwood. Those who have not graduated from college back Reed.
Those who voted for Lisa Borders in the general go 2:1 for Reed in the runoff.
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