Alan Abramowitz: What happened in New Jersey and Virginia stays there
Despite the gloating from Republicans, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz says gubernatorial losses in New Jersey and Virginia aren’t omens of a 2010 apocalypse for Democrats.
Abramowitz has posted a thick but thorough analysis of Tuesday’s numbers on Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which includes this:
While almost all of those who disapproved of President Obama’s performance voted for the Republican gubernatorial candidates, only 80 percent of those who approved of the President’s performance in Virginia voted for Deeds and only 73 percent of those who approved of the President’s performance in New Jersey voted for Corzine.
It was Jon Corzine’s unpopularity and Creigh Deeds’ weakness as a candidate, rather than a negative reaction to President Obama, that largely explains the Democratic defeats in these elections.
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17 comments Add your comment
Chris Broe
November 5th, 2009
11:17 am
Doesn’t New Jersey have casinos? And so what happens in New Jersey stays in New Jersey.
Jim Galloway stuck in his thumb and pulled out a plum!
What a good boy is he!
Jumbo G, the king on conventional thinking
November 5th, 2009
11:19 am
The democrats are whistling past the grace yard. Let them. I loved what Stretch Pelosi said ” We’ve won!” HAHAHHAHA Let’s face it Democrats losing Jersey is like Castro losing Cuba.
Jumbo G, the king on conventional thinking
November 5th, 2009
11:22 am
Would someone go ask Corzine how that Hope and Change is working out for him?
Rham
November 5th, 2009
11:24 am
Somebody is stealing the white house talking points. Jimbo, you got duped.
Road Scholar
November 5th, 2009
12:24 pm
No matter what the analysis shows, some people will only believe what they want to beleive. This applies to the both extremes.I wish that they would at least consider other arguments/views, but they won’t, because they think that they are always right.
AH
November 5th, 2009
12:42 pm
And I’ve got a bridge to sell Mr. Abramowitz. Is he as deluded as Pelosi?
robin
November 5th, 2009
1:14 pm
Are you and Pelosi drinking out of the same fountain?
Dr. Tenenbaum
November 5th, 2009
1:21 pm
AH and Robin, Dr. Abramowitz is a highly respected political scientist. He is not being told what to write or what to leave out of his analysis by anybody.
I know this is unusual for you…just look at the conservative media. It is hard to separate Fox News and Rush , etc from the Republican party. They are one and the same.
For those of us in academia and in real journalism, like Mr. Galloway and Dr. Abramowitz and myself…we answer to a higher authority: Truth. We work to learn more about the world and share that knowledge with the public.
AH
November 5th, 2009
2:37 pm
Hey Doc. Tenenbaum I’ve got some of that ocean front property in Arizona too if you’re interested.
“The characters just weren’t believable.”
Jumbo G is the king on conventional thinking
November 5th, 2009
4:37 pm
How did that Hope and Change work out for Corizne, there Doc. T? Bash Rush and Fox and Beck or Bush for democrat troubles. I truly hope and pray that the Democrat Party isn’t getting the message.
Diehard
November 5th, 2009
4:57 pm
So the good Dr. can now add “chief apologist for the Chief of State” to his voluminous memo. Hope he gets a State Dinner invitation out of it. Or maybe the President can nominate him for the Nobel Prize next year.
Stephanie
November 5th, 2009
5:29 pm
Abramowitz makes a valid point. Just look at the history of post presidential elections in Virginia and NJ. Since 1985, these states have always voted against the power party in Washington. http://www.newsy.com/videos/gubernatorial_victories_could_be_big_for_republican_party
Jumbo G , Stephanie and that idot professor from Emory are the kings of conventional thinking
November 5th, 2009
5:57 pm
Hey steph, you tool, how ’bout this fact: In 1993 (While BJ Clinton was a new pres.) VA and NJ went for the republicans! Then, in 1994 we had the Republican Revolution. You like history? I’ve know tons more.
Dr. Rev. Obama Al Hussein Carter Sharpton Jackson Frakhan Bin AL-Skyhook
November 5th, 2009
10:23 pm
Hey, Dr. Tennebaum, you aint no Zionist, is you. If you are. EAT MY SHORTS!!!!!
Dr. Rev. Obama Al Hussein Carter Sharpton Jackson Frakhan Bin AL-Skyhook
November 5th, 2009
10:24 pm
DR. T is a self -righteous pompous ass. I know. I’m a doctor and I answer to the truth.
rightofcenter
November 6th, 2009
8:51 am
I really didn’t have to read this to know what Alan Abramowitz would say. He’s the go-to guy when the media wants to get a “Southern political expert” diss the Republicans. Why don’t you interview Charles Bulloch? He’s much more accurate than the liberal.
Blue Dogs 2010
November 6th, 2009
6:34 pm
The GOP will gain 20-39 seats in the House and likely 2 in the Senate (Reid going down in NV and Dodd getting his head handed to him in CT), while Democrats will survive (like the Republicans did in 2002 despite losing VA and NJ to Warner and McGreevey in 2001) by picking governorships in California, Hawaii, Nevada, Minnesota, Alabama, Rhode Island, Vermont, Florida and Arizona and 4 Senate seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and New Hampshire.