A first round of number-crunching in the ATL mayor’s race
Our number-crunchers are in the process of a full-body analysis of the Tuesday night returns in the Atlanta mayoral contest.
In the meantime, the Fulton County web site has been rather slow – no doubt due to the traffic. I’ve uploaded the precinct-by-precinct results into Google Docs, hoping that it be easier to read there.
Click here to read or download at your leisure.
In the meantime, here are some initial stats:
– One numerologist we know pointed out that vote totals for mayor (all candidates combined) came to 72,012. That is about 9,000 less than 2001 (81,047 votes), the last time the mayor’s office had some serious competition. So this latest contest suffered from serious voter apathy.
– In last year’s presidential contest, 192,000 city showed up.
– Total turnout was 24 percent, down from 41 percent in 2001. In that latter race, the top three finishers were Franklin with 40,715 votes, Rob Pitts with 26,844 and Gloria Tinubu with 12,969 votes). 2 others split 519 votes.
Before the finish of Tuesday’s vote, several strategists said the thing to look for on Tuesday would be Mary Norwood’s performance in precincts with the highest percentage of African-American voters. If she topped 20 percent, they said, Kasim Reed would be in trouble.
A look at the top black and white precincts in fact shows a serious racial split. In those five top white precincts, Reed never topped 7 percent. But in the top black precincts, Norwood ran as high as 28 percent. Prying those voters away from Norwood is likely to be one of Reed’s top priorities in the coming days.
Turnout in those black precincts was also down significantly – and that could be a killer five days after Thanksgiving.
Here’s the breakdown of the black precincts:
–03U (Central United Methodist Church); 96% AA; turnout 4%: Reed, 74%; Norwood 14%; Borders, 8%
– 11A2 (Zion Hill Baptist Church); 97% AA; turnout 45%: Reed, 58%; Norwood, 19%; Borders, 18%
– 09B (Central Hill Health Center); 99% AA; turout 7%: Reed, 59%; Norwood, 28%; Borders, 12%
– 10P (Towns Elementary); 98% AA; turnout 30%: Reed, 56%; Norwood, 24%; Borders, 15%
– 11P (Epworth Towers); 98% AA; turnout 28%: Reed, 62%; Norwood, 20%; Borders, 16%
And here are the white precincts:
–08F (Morris Brandon School); 98% white; turnout 47%: Reed, 7%; Norwood, 78%; Borders, 11%
– 08D (Northside Library); 98% white; turnout 49%: Reed, 5%; Norwood, 81%; Borders, 11%
– 08M (Peachtree Presbyterian); 98% white; turnout 39%: Reed, 7%; Norwood, 84%; Borders, 9%
– 08K (Bitsy Grant Tennis Center); 96% white; turnout 37%: Reed, 7 percent; Norwood, 85%; Borders, 5%
– 08C (Northwest Presbyterian); 96% white; turnout: 37%: Reed, 3%; Norwood, 86%; Borders, 9%
Again, this isn’t conclusive, but it looks like we’ve got a trend building here.
No doubt Norwood’s organization should be credited for much of her performance in African-American dominated precincts. And black voters have had a history of voting for white candidates — more so than the other way around.
But state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond — who is also vice chairman of the state Democratic party — offered another idea to ponder.
“A lot of this is the result of the Obama election,” Thurmond said. Because so many whites voted for Barack Obama last year, a certain reciprocity exists. “Now there are blacks who are willing to consider a white candidate, even over a black candidate,” he said.
“I think that’s a repercussion of the Obama effect that may not have been contemplated. It resets the table,” Thurmond said.
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148 comments Add your comment
Krooked Kasim
November 4th, 2009
12:02 pm
http://www.notkasim.blogspot.com
BPJ
November 4th, 2009
12:28 pm
Those stats are interesting, but I’d really like to see numbers for some precints which are more mixed.
And since District 6 is going to have a runoff for the council seat, what were the mayoral #s for that district?
A Political Demographer
November 4th, 2009
12:36 pm
Please check your turnout calculation. Compare to:
Fulton 72012
DeKalb 6379
Total 78391
Registered (SOS) 258,043
(active)
TURNOUT 30.4%
Deborah
November 4th, 2009
12:39 pm
BPJ, in one 6th precinct, it was 64% Norwood, 18% Reed, 15% Borders. That is about 17th and Peachtree and not mixed racially but heavily Democrat. The party has its work cut out if it dares to tread in again, and I can tell you for certain it won’t be able to sell Reed based on partisanship alone. This is clearly an anti-establishment vote. Placate us with competence, demonstrated competence.
AJC: Norwood did well in predominantly black neighborhoods | Fresh Loaf
November 4th, 2009
12:44 pm
[...] Atlanta” narrative for the run-off, consider this: the spreadsheet users over at the AJC say Mary Norwood won a significant number of votes yesterday from predominantly black [...]
Cutty
November 4th, 2009
12:54 pm
Guess the notion of blacks voting only for blacks has been seriously debunked.
DAVID
November 4th, 2009
1:06 pm
Count on the bigoted AJC to bring race into the mayoral runoff race to sell papers..Bet On it.
native Atlien
November 4th, 2009
1:13 pm
AJC turned this into a racial matter, don’t feed into their hype. Just watch as they continue to lay people off, then shut down because of low readership!
Vote Norwood
November 4th, 2009
1:16 pm
Kasim is another candidate bound for jail…
Drew
November 4th, 2009
1:23 pm
“Guess the notion of blacks voting only for blacks has been seriously debunked.”
I wonder what it says of the notion that whites vote only for whites?
Cutty
November 4th, 2009
1:26 pm
@ Drew. The proof is in the pudding.
LegalRebel
November 4th, 2009
1:28 pm
This is not surprising, at least not to me. African Americans have always supported white candidates while the opposite has not been historically true. Because of the imbalance of power, Blacks were forced to support white candidates even when their interests were disparate. Blacks had to choose the lesser of the two evils. However, in recent years we have seen more Black candidates garner white support, i.e., President Obama, but across the board politics is a very segregated part of our society.
I just pray that we all vote for the candidate based upon his or her record and not simply because of race.
there are lies, damn lies and statistics
November 4th, 2009
1:29 pm
Comparing the white to black voting ratio by comparing Norwood to Reed while excluding the African American votes for Borders (and Spikes) is inexcusably poor analysis and journalism. Including just the numebrs for Borders with Reed, the black/white difference isn’t nearly as wide. The white voters voted 18% (versus the 7% reported above) in 08F for an AA candidate, 16% (versus 5%) in 08D, 16% (versus 7%) in 08M, 12% versus 7% in 08K, and 12% versus 3% in 08K. And that is not including whatever percentage Spikes received (probably another 1% or so).
Roekest
November 4th, 2009
1:30 pm
“Guess the notion of blacks voting only for blacks has been seriously debunked.”
“I wonder what it says of the notion that whites vote only for whites?”
Or maybe were just voting for who they thought was the best candidate and not too many people on either side of the racial spectrum felt Reed nor Borders were cut out for the job…….
You Southerners and your quick retreat to the “race issue” in any and all circumstances. Backwards indeed, even in this “progressive” city.
Cutty
November 4th, 2009
1:37 pm
@ Roekest- I’m from Chicago, hardly a southerner. If you read the blog, it was about how the races voted for a particular candidate smh. Know of what you speak before opening your trap.
Norwood for Mayor
November 4th, 2009
1:38 pm
Mary Norwood did a great job last night, and no doubt she will gain more support in the run off to put her over the top. It’s not about race, it’s about which candidate has the clear vision of change. Atlanta needs a fresh start, Norwood can give us that.
We’re behind you Mary!!
deej
November 4th, 2009
1:43 pm
Yes, Dwayne. The politicians AND the people try to leave race out of this contest, but everywhere I turn, it seems the MEDIA is determined to make it the issue.
Kasim is going to attempt to draw VOTERS from Norwood. The “black” voters angle was so unnecessary.
s.h.
November 4th, 2009
1:44 pm
I am a black female and I just think its high time we turn the tables the other way and let’s see what this white woman can do. There has been too much corruption and imbalance in Franklin’s tenure. She was a good mayor however alot of things just got out of hand, like cutting fire departments, cutting police pay and cutting forces down. The crime has risen in Atlanta and its time to get a white woman in there. When crime gets high in Atlanta, white people dont care about anything else but lowering it. They will increase police forces, increase fire departments, increase their pay and they wont stand for all this crime. Of course its gonna clean up a lot of things with our people but hey, dont we really need that. our children cant even walk the college campuses without being raped, robbed, or killed. White folks wont stand for this and I’m supporting this woman 100% as a black woman I’m tired of the corruption. The only thing I do wish is for some white folks to come run down in clayton county on the education board, and government, so we can clean up clayton county which CAN be a nice place to live.
All I'm Saying Is...
November 4th, 2009
1:47 pm
What is also interesting to me is that there were four candidates running for Mayor and only one was not African-American yet by far Caucasian voters felt their interests aligned most with the only non-African-American in the race yet I don’t recall anyone saying that Lisa Borders, Reed’s, and Spikes’ positions were interchangeable.
Makes you wonder if the voters that did care enough to vote really assessed the positions of the candidates on the various issues or assumed that all the black candidates had the same policies (which they may have I don’t know) so I, a Caucasian voter, would be best served to vote for the individual that most resembles me.
When African-Americans vote in a bloc, they are accused of being racists yet when Caucasian voters exhibit this trait most people suggest it was for other reasons.
Roekest: In terms of being cut out for the job, if you have seen any of the YouTube videos showing Norwood struggling to speak coherently and intelligently in terms of unscripted remarks, then you would know how idiotic your comment was.
ATLGApeach
November 4th, 2009
1:48 pm
I’m not surprised at all by the racial breakdown of the vote. This is the south and even though we are in ATL which is supposedly “diverse” many whites are still holding to racist beliefs and continue to allow those beliefs to determine their actions.
ATLGApeach
November 4th, 2009
1:50 pm
@All I’m saying is.. Your comments are right on the money. Thanks for spelling it out.
All I'm Saying Is...
November 4th, 2009
1:52 pm
s.h.: Your comments are sad in that they reflect what is often called a ‘plantation mentality’ in that you think only Caucasians can correct whatever issues, in this case, Atlanta faces. You clearly show your complete ignorance of the facts in terms of previous African-American Mayors of Atlanta time and time again (because crime has a long history) confronting and overcoming the issue of crime with statistics to back them up in terms of it being reduced through their effective actions and that of the Atlanta Police Force which is typically led by an African-American who also comprise the majority of the police force (not that race matters when it comes to local government confronting and overcoming societal ills but that is what you seem to think).
A World (Atlanta) Without (Lisa) Borders
November 4th, 2009
1:53 pm
The AJC turned the Mayoral election into a racial issue?
Really? As I recall it was a couple of Morehouse professors who kicked off the call for the black community to support a black candidate. Do you guys drink that much Kool-Aid?
Take off your tin-foil hats. Its nice outside.
larry
November 4th, 2009
1:55 pm
Go Mary.
You are the best candidate!
Nolefan
November 4th, 2009
1:56 pm
“All I’m Saying Is…” and “ATLGApeach” = why there should be IQ tests for voting eligibility.
PatrickB
November 4th, 2009
1:58 pm
Mary has done a good job trying to ensure people don’t judge her based on color. She has done a lot in southwest Atlanta neighborhoods over the years, so this election should not come down to color.
Jackalope
November 4th, 2009
2:00 pm
Nightline aired a piece on the Mayor’s race last night. It was pretty good.
Just Saying....
November 4th, 2009
2:01 pm
Why is the AJC turning this eleciton into a “black versus white” thing? Can we see some demographics for voters besides race? We may find that a certain economic group (regardless of race) is going for either candidate. We may find that a certain age group (regardless of race) is going for either candidate. There are many ways to slice the pie. So while I don’t fault the AJC for giving the race breakdown, I do fault them for giving ONLY a race breakdown. Don’t feed into their agenda!!!
All I'm Saying Is...
November 4th, 2009
2:01 pm
“Nolefan” = why the Voting Rights Act of 1965 was necessary and still is because Nolefan doesn’t truly believe in democracy (i.e. one person, one vote) and the American way of life unless someone votes exactly like them (which is a Communist tenet by definition).
ATL Native
November 4th, 2009
2:06 pm
Add to all of the above comments that Mary Norwood’s campaign gave $1500 and $1000 bucks to Able Mable Thomas and Dave Walker for “consulting services” and “outreach”. She just also happened to get an endorsement from Thomas.
For all of the folks bemoaning corruption…these transactions provide a baseline for it. It’s the same as paying Jesse Jackson/Operation Push a “consulting” fee and then having him swoop in and campaign for you.
Disgusting…..
Bill
November 4th, 2009
2:09 pm
African Americans showed a willingness to vote for the white candidate in this election. White voters showed their willingness to cross racial liness in the last presidential election.
I am white and a lifelong democrat. Early on, I was quite undecide. As the race progressed, I was leaning heavily toward Kasim Reed. The events of the last three weeks moved me away from that position.
1) Mayor Franklin declared that Mary Norwood was not qualified. I believe that is up to the voters to decide. I was irritated.
2) The state democratic party injected itself into a nonpartisan race, and essentially encouraged atlantans to vote for anybody but Norwood. I was outraged.
3) Kasim Reed launched last minute negative adds, again focused on party affiliation. I voted for Norwood.
Now, we have a runoff, and as far as I am concerned, a clean slate. Whichever candidate runs the best positive and issues oriented campaign will likely earn my vote.
I agree with an earlier poster that much of the vote was antiestablishment. Reed and Borders have close ties to the current administration, and I think people are yearning for a change.
I believe that the smartest and most capable candidate was probably Jesse Spikes, unfortunately, he had no public experience and his campaign never got off the ground.
ATLGApeach
November 4th, 2009
2:09 pm
Nolefan= sad, pitiable person who has to resort to personal insults/attacks because he/she/it has no valid arguments to dispute the facts being pointed out
Rod
November 4th, 2009
2:11 pm
Interesting how Norwood obtained higher percentages in white precinits that Kasim and Borders combined in white precinits. I voted for Norwood in the Joyce Shepard part of town yesterday but with writers like you basically saying black people will be to full from Thanksgiving dinner to get out and vote I may change my mind next time. This nonsense writing and the fact I just found out according to a flyer which I have to confirm stating Norwood attended the Republician Convention give me pause!I have met and talked to Norwood but as a black man I have to wonder why she is an independent
CWILLI
November 4th, 2009
2:23 pm
Atlanta voters should focus on the process at hand, who is the most qualified for the job, not who can get your attention the best and not follow through after getting your attention, case and point Lisa Borders failed to do damage control after that incident involving that professor at Morehouse, Mary Norwood really don’t know anything, but I did look at her this morning on television when asked a question she looked directly into the television like the newcasters weren’t even there, when Kasim Reed came out he was comfortable and relaxed as to who he was. Jessie Spikes seems to be a very nice man but not intuned to what Atlanta needs. I don’t live in the city of Atlanta but it wouldn’t make a difference in color at all people in this day and time should be beyond that. I feel like Norwood works behind the scenes and that’s where her directives come from, if she were in office she would be a body in place with somebody else running the city, Lisa Borders would have been like I said a good contender but failed to do damage control, so in my opinion the best person for the job would be Kasim Reed.
Bill
November 4th, 2009
2:25 pm
Rod,
The comments you refer to are indeed divisive and uncalled for. The bit about Norwood attending the Republican convention is true. But, this is also meant to be divisive. That is the last thing this city needs. Please vote for whomever you think will do the best job.
Dee
November 4th, 2009
2:26 pm
Wow S.H. so all the corruption that has taken place in Chicago must have been when they had an African-American mayor right? NO, it was the Dailey Machine. Come on Baby Girl, if you want to support Mary Norwood because you think she will do for the City then that’s fine. But don’t drag all African-American politiicians in the dirt for the sake of voting for her. I won’t go as far as to say it is “plantation mentality”, but it really is a skewed way of thinking. I love local politics, as such, I read alot on local political history. Chicago is the easiest example, but New York for decades fits the same bill. Now if you really want to look at corruption and do a race analogy, then let’s look into all of the small cities and townships plagued by corrupt government officials. Now that alone will kill your argument.
Vicious Truth
November 4th, 2009
2:37 pm
Folks…There’s a reason he state democratic operation jumped in this contest. Kasim Reed has been giving them money for years as a state senator. Go read the campaign disclosures for the state. It was pay back. Reed has always been an opportunist – he served his south Fulton district poorly. He’s taken money from the same folks who tried to disable his district but has gone out of his way to carry water for Shirley and the city of Atlanta.
I can not with good conscious give a dime or support Reed. I have never voted for him and I’ve live in his district since he was a state representative before becoming a state senator. Two words – background check!
Norwood come get your check!
drunk dawg
November 4th, 2009
2:38 pm
Norwood baby! Clean up this mess. Is she related to Jerious??
Kem
November 4th, 2009
2:40 pm
To the Norwood supporters(especially the African-Americans) who want a change:
The last time I checked, Ms. Norwood is a city council person who has had a hand in this mess during the last couple of terms. Can you tell me some tangible positive things she has done? I still cannot get any of her supporters to tell me. They always come with the “she’s real” line.
She seems like a nice lady who is willing to come into some neighborhoods, but that does not make her qualified to be mayor of Atlanta. Perhaps Mayberry! Atlanta does not need Jane Hathaway (from the Beverly Hillbillies) to be mayor. Change for the sake of change does not make any sense.
kelvin
November 4th, 2009
2:44 pm
Regarding S.H.: a black female had called into v-103 basically stating the same opioion. she said she would never vote for another blk woman for mayor because of shirley franklin. of course frank ski, nor ignorant wanda smith challened her on this notion. maybe the next time S.opinionH. goes to apply for a job – she will not get hired because the last black female who challengedheld the postion wasnt good or her husband/son will get arrested when he walks through macys because the last black position wasn’t black man who walked through shoplifted.
Dave
November 4th, 2009
2:46 pm
“A lot of this is the result of the Obama election,” Thurmond said” what a bunch of horse hockey. Could it possibliy be because these folks actually thought she might be the best candidate? And it’s because of Obama’s election that the Gov’s of VA and NJ are white, well maybe that one might be valid.
kelvin
November 4th, 2009
2:50 pm
Regarding S.H.: a black female had called into v-103 basically stating the same opinion. she said she would never vote for another black woman for mayor because of shirley franklin. of course frank ski, nor ignorant wanda smith challenged her on this notion. maybe the next time S.H. goes to apply for a job – she will not get hired because the last black female who held the position wasn’t good or her husband/son will get arrested when he walks through macys because the last black man who walked through the mall shoplifted.
Joan
November 4th, 2009
2:55 pm
But wasn’t Kasim Reed Franklin’s campaign manager? Seems like some blacks just don’t want any more of the same.
Voter
November 4th, 2009
2:56 pm
Okay…is it just me or from watching her campaign tv commercials, does it seem like Mary Norwood is the only white person she knows?
emack06
November 4th, 2009
3:00 pm
Well this video sums it up about how the mayoral race turned out lastnight. Of course its about race. Reed is the best candidate for the job but there are those who dont want to see another black mayor in atlanta because they want to feel “safe”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUC2pgTFSac
DAVID
November 4th, 2009
3:01 pm
AJC & the liberal bloggers are so, so concerned about the racial breakdown of the votes..So, so, so concerned abour which areas crossed the racial barriers.
Gwen
November 4th, 2009
3:06 pm
OMG — reading all of this is so sad.
Morehouse College
November 4th, 2009
3:07 pm
As a Morehouse alumnus, I would like all commenters to stop refraining from the race memo authors as “Morehouse professors”. The two authors of that memo were from Clark Atlanta University.
Reid in EAV
November 4th, 2009
3:08 pm
I realize my experience can hardly be generalized, but I started from a blank slate looking at all the candidates, and as a white male, I decided that Jesse Spikes was the best choice. Now that he’s out of the runoff (due to a poorly-run campaign, which was a disappointment), I look at the choices before me and feel no enthusiasm. While Norwood has eight years of talking a good game and doing very little, Reed is obviously the “machine” candidate, with endorsements from what’s left of Maynard Jackson’s compadres.
So that leaves me, a white male, left to unenthusiastically pull the lever for the white candidate (even though I’d vote for Jesse Spikes over her in a heartbeat, were he in the runoff). Does this make me a racist? I don’t think so. I’m just trying to vote for the least bad option. I don’t expect a miracle from anyone, but I am curious what Norwood would do with something besides a single vote on Council. As for Reed, I think the last eight years of his pal Shirley Franklin (who was very good in her first term, remember) have demonstrated how he’d govern. No surprises there.
My thinking is that there may be some unreconstructed white racists out there, who would never vote for a black candidate, but I have hard time believing there are more than a handful of them inside city limits. (Marietta? Kennesaw? That’s another story.)
Kasim Greed
November 4th, 2009
3:17 pm
Black mayors have done nothing for Atlanta’s communities in 36 years of power. Why should we vote for another?
Maybe it’s time to vote for an outsider in hopes of cleaning up Mechanicsville, West End, Vine City, Oakland City, Pittsburgh, Peoplestown…