InsiderAdvantage poll: Mary Norwood at 45 percent

InsiderAdvantage is out with a poll this afternoon in the Atlanta race for mayor that shows Councilwoman Mary Norwood at 45 percent and within reach of outright victory on Tuesday.

Results are similar to those of a WXIA/Survey USA poll conducted earlier this week. The IA poll puts the contest thusly:

Mary Norwood: 45%

Kasim Reed: 25%

Lisa Borders: 16%

Jesse Spikes: 2%

Other: 1%

Undecided: 11%

The poll was conducted Oct. 29 among 704 registered voters in Atlanta. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6%. The data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.

Says InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery:

[I]f the election were held today, Norwood would likely be within one or two percent of winning the race without a runoff. Her barrage of ads and the apparent decline in Borders’ support suggests that white voters are moving to Norwood. That said, Reed now appears to be the African-American candidate with substantial support from the black community.

IA has included crosstabs for inspection.

In the normal arc of a campaign, candidates like to finish with warm-and-fuzzy advertising that reminds voters that they’re voting for someone, not just against the other candidate. But if the IA numbers are close to correct, then Reed and Borders won’t have that luxury.

Norwood can expect to have the kitchen sink thrown at her over the weekend, in an attempt to keep her under 50 percent-plus-one.

Reed and Borders have been on the receiving end of last-minute endorsements this morning. Reed was endorsed by the group Georgia Independent Voters:

“We’re proud to announce our support for Kasim Reed for Mayor of Atlanta,” said Thyrsa M. Gravely, a long-time independent political organizer and a key player in GIV’s candidate screening process. “Reed has been on the just side of important electoral issues here in Georgia, and in our conversations he indicated a willingness to address our concerns regarding political reform by being a spokesperson at the state and national level.”

Borders was endorsed by Southern Voice, the newspaper aimed and gays and lesbians, with this explanation:

Reed’s track record would have earned him our endorsement except for one crucial issue: He is the only leading candidate who doesn’t support gay marriage.

“Where I am is that like anyone else I have my own personal faith, and I’m working through issues about marriage equality in my own private way, as my own private person,” Reed told us back in May. “I have believed, as I have for a long time, in civil unions.”

Regardless of whether you personally want to marry or where you think the issue should fall on the so-called “gay agenda,” the fight for marriage rights cuts to the core of what it means to truly view our relationships — and therefore, us as human beings — as equal to heterosexuals.

Reed’s “personal faith” is no reason to deny marriage rights to gay couples in a secular government. Deep down, he’s still not sure our relationships are as sacred as his. You may choose to vote for him for other reasons, but LGBT issues shouldn’t be among them.

That leaves Norwood and Borders. Both support marriage equality. Both are familiar faces in the Atlanta Pride parade and other LGBT events — especially Borders. She also helped broker the deal to get Pride back in Piedmont Park, albeit on Halloween weekend.

Back in 2003, Norwood sponsored legislation that would have moved last call in Atlanta bars back from 4 a.m. to 2 a.m. The call to close bars earlier was an attempt at a “one size fits all” solution to violence, in Buckhead Village.

We have also been remiss in not drawing your attention to, at a cinematic level, one of the cooler TV ads, put together by the mayoral campaign of Kyle Keyser:

Editor’s note: Given the impending Atlanta mayoral election, instant commenting has been closed on the Political Insider blog. Readers are invited to submit comments on all posts, which will be published as soon as possible after review.

For instant updates, follow me on Twitter.

43 comments Add your comment

Kendall

October 30th, 2009
12:59 pm

If Norwood and Reed end up in a runoff, expect an all out race war to happen.

VOTE LISA BORDERS!

Krooked Kaseem

October 30th, 2009
12:59 pm

Lisa Lisa

October 30th, 2009
1:01 pm

When asked if she voted for George W Bush, Mary Norwood responded “I can’t remember”. Are you kidding me?

SOVO

October 30th, 2009
1:04 pm

Borders has now gotten the endorsement from both the LGBT community (Georgia Equality and Southern Voice) and the Police Union. In lieu of the recent Eagle raid and other LGBT issues in the community, I’m impressed by Borders’ ability to build bridges across the city. We’ve had too much divisive politics in this election. It’s time to elect a unifier. Polls be what they may, I am voting for Lisa Borders.

crazy finish

October 30th, 2009
1:05 pm

wow, it’s amazing how Borders has crashed in the last week. It’s clear Kasim will be in the runoff against that goofy Norwood. Seems like there might be a major shift when it comes down to those two

James, T.

October 30th, 2009
1:09 pm

No really surprised by these results. No one has moved significantly. The question now is: with the Reed camp completely out of money, will his last push and short lived momentum be enough to carry him into the runoff, or will Borders’ storehouse of money help her regain control over the weekend with a flood of media buys. We shall see.

Scared

October 30th, 2009
1:16 pm

I just don’t understand how 45% of Atlantans could possibly believe Norwood is the best candidate for the job. These people clearly have not listened to her message or given her platform a good once over. She keeps saying she wants accountability and transparency but won’t release her tax records. She keeps saying the city’s finances have to be fixed but she can’t read a budget. She doesn’t understand the basic needs of the city, how to provide those needs, or how to fund those needs. If she wins the entire city will be privatized. She won’t have any other option. I wish I could afford to move.

A World (Atlanta) Without (Lisa) Borders

October 30th, 2009
1:19 pm

My handles says it all.

Kendall

October 30th, 2009
1:19 pm

Look at a radio ad that John Lewis, Shirley Franklin, and Andrew Young made to support John Eaves when he was running for Fulton County Commission chairman back in 2006:

“This is Congressman John Lewis.”

“And I’m Mayor Shirley Franklin”

“And I’m Andy Young”

Lewis: “On November 7th we face the most dangerous situation we ever have. If you think fighting off dogs and water hoses in the ’60s was bad, imagine if we sit idly by and let the right-wing Republicans take control of the Fulton County Commission.”

Franklin: “The efforts of Martin and Coretta King, Hosea Williams, Maynard Jackson and many others will be lost. That’s why we must stand up and we must turn out the vote for the Democrats on Election Day.”

Young: “And especially for John Eaves for Fulton County Commission chairman. Unless you want them to turn back the clock on equal rights and human rights and economic opportunity for all of us, vote for John Eaves as Fulton County chairman.”

Lewis: “Your very life may depend on it.”

Eaves: “This message paid for by the committee to elect John Eaves.”

Dogs and hoses? ‘Your very life may depend on it?’ Kasim will take this to a whole ‘nother level if he gets in the runoff with Norwood. Don’t let that happen if you helped vote Barack Obama into office and TRULY believe in change.

VOTE LISA BORDERS!

Angry

October 30th, 2009
1:22 pm

Anyone but Kasim! Atlanta will crumble under the corruption his administration will bring. His campaign has been funded by airport contractors, many of whom likely won their airport bids thanks to Tracy Reed. Kasim won’t fire his brother if elected, which is obviously a conflict of interest. He is the only candidate to pay fines for ethics violations. Does this not concern anyone else? If these are all public examples of his lack of moral character, just imagine what voters don’t know!

Hello

October 30th, 2009
1:25 pm

This race is turning into a racial issue. All the whites are voting for Norwood regardless of what she represents. If she is a Democrat, then why are republicans voting for her? Looking at he polls, people are only voting for Norwood because she is white.

Donny Fairplay

October 30th, 2009
1:26 pm

A Norwood administration will pave the way for economic interests that have been chomping at the bit to get into City Hall. The woman knows nothing about running anything and her answer to that is to hire people?! Let’s hope that she’d be a better judge of skill and character than she is at reading a budget. If not, we’re screwed.

Canopy

October 30th, 2009
1:26 pm

Reed and Norwood are both destructively polarizing figures. Lisa Borders will do more to bring our city together (North, South, East, West, Black, White, Gay, Straight, Young, Old) than any other candidate in the race. The discourse throughout this election has shown that we desperately need this in Atlanta. We need Lisa Borders in Atlanta.

Jackalope

October 30th, 2009
1:28 pm

Mary Norwood’s new ad addressing the negative ads is already up (she has, by far, the best media team in this race) and is going to squash this so it can’t even become an issue in the run off (if there is one).

joe joe

October 30th, 2009
1:30 pm

Kendall,
I still have the mp3 of that racist commercial.
They thought they would be slick & only run it on urban stations. Well a few people (outside of their circle) found out about it & they immediately took it off the airwaves.
However I was too quick for them. I was able to save it before they got it off the air & have saved it. I’ve been waiting for 2 years for the next opportunity to send it viral when those racists start opening up their filthy mouths again.

Chris Murphy, Atlanta, GA

October 30th, 2009
1:42 pm

Right now, if Norwood doesn’t say another word or run any ads until the election, she will improve her chances: the other inept campaigns, plus the malicious efforts of Shirley Franklin and the Democratic Party, keep making themselves look like complete fools- at best- or code-word racists at worst.

Samatva

October 30th, 2009
1:51 pm

The Robo Calls are still very annoying, especially since I’ve move outside of the city limits AND I’ve already send my number and a stop request to all the offenders. It would be much more acceptable if it was a live campaign volunteer calling, I would ask (nicely) to be removed from the list. Seeing the last annoyance is pulling 2% in the polls doesn’t make it any easier…

Andrew Young

October 30th, 2009
1:57 pm

SAY NO TO WHITEY !!!!

well

October 30th, 2009
2:05 pm

@joe joe

you should send it out on the web now

jconservative

October 30th, 2009
2:05 pm

I am an outsider & the comments posted prior to mind indicate that the race is already racist. Too bad. There are enough critical issues to have a good fight over without resorting to racial name calling.

Stupid endorsementf

October 30th, 2009
2:07 pm

I just got a campaign mailer with John eaves endorsing Amir Farohki for city council. I have been reviewing the candidates and was truly undecided. I will not vote for mr. Farohki since he is attached to John eaves. The democrats have screwed up.

Rev. Jesse Jackson

October 30th, 2009
2:08 pm

Do the right thing on election day, Atlanta. Keep the Cracker in Buckhead. Keep hope alive !

Kendall

October 30th, 2009
2:11 pm

@joe joe; Both Shirley Franklin and Andrew Young endorse Kasim Reed. You can expect a similar commercial or radio ad to air should he make it into the runoff. Avoid the inevitable race war Atlanta. We’ve elected a Black president, and have come way too far to lose.

Blue Fox

October 30th, 2009
2:28 pm

If folks voted simply on accomplishments in office, brains and Dr. King’s dream of “character instead of color of their skin,” Kasim Reed would win without a runoff.

Roekest

October 30th, 2009
2:31 pm

@ joe joe…..

Release the MP3…..NOW!!!!! Don’t let them get away with their racism. Would we let Hitler do the same?

Carrie

October 30th, 2009
2:36 pm

why can’t the blacks see past their racism???

Miguel

October 30th, 2009
2:37 pm

The recent “vote black memo” allegedly sent out by two college professors have tainted my perception. I like Lisa Borders and have from the start….but those made me want to vote white!!! I’m starting to edge back toward Borders, and will probably vote that way….despite the “memo”

Reign

October 30th, 2009
2:38 pm

Wow, I can’t believe Atlanta is going to let Reed or possibility Norwood win this thing. Buckhead and MidTown had better wake up and get Borders elected…those other two aren’t very diverse in their thinking

Brad

October 30th, 2009
2:44 pm

Voters are only voting for Norwood because she’s white?? Hummm…. I guess it has nothing to do with her standing up for those of us who pay $6,800 per year in property taxe for 0.18 acres in Buckhead. Just because you all vote based on color doesn’t mean we do.

cletus T Rockafella

October 30th, 2009
2:50 pm

looks like galloway likes to discriminate on comments allowed.

SAY NO TO WHITEY, BUT NO SAY NO TO BLACKY

Shame on you jimmah

victor

October 30th, 2009
2:50 pm

@Hello,

You’re a moron, the same damn thing can be said about black people.

Eric

October 30th, 2009
2:53 pm

We never have good choices in local races and this time is no different. Shirley sucks and whoever her successor is will suck too. I can almost guarantee it.

Neal Boortz

October 30th, 2009
2:56 pm

THIS IS PAYBACK FOR OBAMA ! WHITEY’S REVENGE !

kornfeld-5

October 30th, 2009
2:56 pm

The racism continues – lovin’ it!!!!

Atlanta

October 30th, 2009
3:22 pm

We all want a better Atlanta. Vote Lisa Borders on November 3rd if you want this divisiveness to end.

ATLshirt.com

October 30th, 2009
3:27 pm

1:16 pm
I just don’t understand how 45% of Atlantans could possibly believe Norwood is the best candidate for the job. These people clearly have not listened to her message or given her platform a good once over. She keeps saying she wants accountability and transparency but won’t release her tax records. She keeps saying the city’s finances have to be fixed but she can’t read a budget. She doesn’t understand the basic needs of the city, how to provide those needs, or how to fund those needs. If she wins the entire city will be privatized. She won’t have any other option. I wish I could afford to move.

these same 45% also think Obama is doing a wonderful job LOL

ATLshirt.com

October 30th, 2009
3:30 pm

This race is turning into a racial issue. All the whites are voting for Norwood regardless of what she represents. If she is a Democrat, then why are republicans voting for her? Looking at he polls, people are only voting for Norwood because she is white.

you are voting against her because she is white, double standanrd ??

RaceCop

October 30th, 2009
3:40 pm

This poll is racist becacuse the white girl is winning.

Angry Taxpayer

October 30th, 2009
3:47 pm

So who do you think is funding the hit pieces that are designed to force a runoff? Could it be Mayor Franklin’s campaign contribution “residuals”?

Given that the mailers came out just after the 25th of October (a filing deadline for local races and campaign sources and uses of funds), for which Franklin would have to file – I’ll make a big wager on this one – Franklin is funding the hit pieces!

So why would Franklin do it – she doesn’t want Mary opening the books after she is gone.

Hello

October 30th, 2009
4:19 pm

Race should not enter into the equation here. From the debates and each candidates record, it should be clear to all who is qualified and is not qualified. There is no way this race should be as polarized as it is now.

Hello

October 30th, 2009
4:21 pm

Race should not enter into the equation here. From the debates and each candidates record, it should be clear to all who is qualified and who is not qualified. There is no way this race should be as polarized as it is now.

joe joe

October 30th, 2009
5:52 pm

Let me be perfectly clear. I don’t care about race. I care about about political philosophy.
The candidate could be of purple or orange skin color for all I care.
I live in Midtown amongst the most liberal people intown.
What a lot of them don’t realize is that results of their beliefs have given us the most inept combination of financial, educational and safety mismanagement.
We’re just flat out tired of it & those feelings are now crossing all political lines.
I won’t even get into what I pay in property taxes for my small condo.
I’m not particularly thrilled with any of the 3 choices. None of them have the vision, knowledge & most importantly the balls to knock down the corruption that has been built up over the years.
As far as the mp3 tape that I have of the racist commercial that Shirley Franklin, John Lewis, Andrew Young & John Eaves made, I will only release it when I see fit and certainly not to some stranger online. It will only go to someone that I know personally and trust.

[...] late-October opinion polls were notable chiefly for revealing that Reed had surpassed City Council President [...]