11 Alive News and radio station V103 released a new poll of the Atlanta mayor’s race this afternoon, again showing Kasim Reed in second place — but also putting Councilwoman Mary Norwood at 46 percent and within reach of winning the Nov. 3 contest without a runoff.
The poll was conducted over the weekend by Survey USA. Margin of error is 4.2 percent, with 556 registered, likely voters interviewed.
In once sense, this newest poll duplicates the WSB-TV/InsiderAdvantage poll of Friday, which also placed Reed in second place, ahead of Council President Lisa Borders.
But anytime a candidate cracks the 45th percentile in a multi-candidate race, you have to seriously consider the possibility that the race could end on the first Tuesday. The WSB poll of last week had Norwood at 41 percent.
The race, according to 11Alive/V103:
– Norwood at 46 percent;
– Reed at 26 percent;
– Borders at 17 percent;
– Undecided at 5 percent.
Among the findings: Norwood leads 6-to-1 among whites, Republicans and independents. Reed leads among black voters. Norwood leads on voters focused on crime. Reed leads among those who think the big issue is jobs.
The key to this poll is the turnout model, and several of its assumptions are debateable, so take it with a dash of salt:
– Male voters outnumber female voters by 53 percent to 47 percent;
– 53 percent of voters are under 50;
– African-Americans make up 59 percent of the voting universe; white voters are 37 percent.
– 65 percent are college graduates.
– 8 percent say they’ve already voted.
– 36 percent earn under $40k a year; 39 percent say they earn over $80k annually.
By racial breakdown, this is a relatively conservative poll. This line comes from the Survey USA analysis:
If African Americans vote in larger numbers than seen here, a runoff is possible. If whites vote in larger numbers than the 37% seen here, Norwood avoids a runoff.
But 65 percent of the Atlanta electorate has a college degree? We know the city’s population has shifted away from its public housing base, but has it shifted that much?
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