11Alive/V103 poll: Mary Norwood closes in on the magic 50 percent mark

11 Alive News and radio station V103 released a new poll of the Atlanta mayor’s race this afternoon, again showing Kasim Reed in second place — but also putting Councilwoman Mary Norwood at 46 percent and within reach of winning the Nov. 3 contest without a runoff.

The poll was conducted over the weekend by Survey USA. Margin of error is 4.2 percent, with 556 registered, likely voters interviewed.

Crosstabs can be quickly viewed here.

In once sense, this newest poll duplicates the WSB-TV/InsiderAdvantage poll of Friday, which also placed Reed in second place, ahead of Council President Lisa Borders.

But anytime a candidate cracks the 45th percentile in a multi-candidate race, you have to seriously consider the possibility that the race could end on the first Tuesday. The WSB poll of last week had Norwood at 41 percent.

The race, according to 11Alive/V103:

– Norwood at 46 percent;

– Reed at 26 percent;

– Borders at 17 percent;

– Undecided at 5 percent.

Among the findings: Norwood leads 6-to-1 among whites, Republicans and independents. Reed leads among black voters. Norwood leads on voters focused on crime. Reed leads among those who think the big issue is jobs.

The key to this poll is the turnout model, and several of its assumptions are debateable, so take it with a dash of salt:

– Male voters outnumber female voters by 53 percent to 47 percent;

– 53 percent of voters are under 50;

– African-Americans make up 59 percent of the voting universe; white voters are 37 percent.

– 65 percent are college graduates.

– 8 percent say they’ve already voted.

– 36 percent earn under $40k a year; 39 percent say they earn over $80k annually.

By racial breakdown, this is a relatively conservative poll. This line comes from the Survey USA analysis:

If African Americans vote in larger numbers than seen here, a runoff is possible. If whites vote in larger numbers than the 37% seen here, Norwood avoids a runoff.

But 65 percent of the Atlanta electorate has a college degree? We know the city’s population has shifted away from its public housing base, but has it shifted that much?

For instant updates, follow me on Twitter.

102 comments Add your comment

Krooked Kasim

October 26th, 2009
4:22 pm

Wait a Min

October 26th, 2009
4:24 pm

46 + 26 + 17 + 5 = 94

who lost their calculator?

Jackalope

October 26th, 2009
4:24 pm

YOU REPORTED IT WRONG JIM.

ACTUALLY LOOOOK AT THE CROSSTABS.

NORWOOD ALSO LEADS AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS

Jackalope

October 26th, 2009
4:26 pm

MY MISTAKE, YOU ARE RIGHT. NORWOOD LEADS AMONG EVERYTHING ELSE ALTHOUGH THEY REPORTED REED LEADING AMONG LOWER INCOME PEOPLE WHICH IS INCORRECT.

These are all Crap

October 26th, 2009
4:26 pm

None of these polls have over 800 people polled. All of these polls are crap!

Blain

October 26th, 2009
4:28 pm

nOrWoOd UnFiLtErEd

October 26th, 2009
4:29 pm

PoliticOracle

October 26th, 2009
4:29 pm

Norwood’s numbers are only as strong as they are because of her 50% hold on the white vote. Once this is a two MAN race, it most likely Borders’ and Spikes’ supporters will go in large for Reed and the race will be more even.

NOTE: JACKALOPE, REED HAS THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF THE BLACK VOTE!

SEE BELOW: ATLANTA — Mary Norwood holds a significant lead in the race to become Atlanta’s next mayor, according to an exclusive poll commissioned by 11Alive News and V103 and conducted by Survey USA.

In a poll conducted between October 23 and 25, 46 percent of respondents said they would vote for Norwood if the election were held today. Kasim Reed followed with 26 percent and Lisa Borders trailed with 17 percent.

Complete crosstabs can be viewed by clicking here. Survey USA made the following observations about the poll:

Norwood leads 6:1 among whites, Republicans, and Independents.
Reed leads among blacks, who make up 59% of the electorate in SurveyUSA’s turnout model.
If African Americans vote in larger numbers than seen here, a runoff is possible.
If whites vote in larger numbers than the 37% seen here, Norwood avoids a runoff.
Reed leads among voters focused on jobs.
Norwood leads among voters focused on crime.
Reed leads among the less affluent.
Norwood leads among the more affluent and the more educated.
8% tell SurveyUSA they have already voted.

Betsy

October 26th, 2009
4:31 pm

You need at least 1000 people to really have decent poll numbers. How come all of these polls are shooting towards the low end?

Margaret

October 26th, 2009
4:32 pm

Lisa Borders has over 30 of the most influential preachers in this city supporting her. Lisa, if you are reading this, please know Southwest Atlanta is behind you. I will never forget what your family, starting with your grandfather, has done for us in the city. God Bless!

PoliticOracle

October 26th, 2009
4:44 pm

@Margaret,

Lisa ran a poor campaign and she is now losing as a result. I hope that no bitterness will be carried forward post general election. We must unite behind Reed. Not because he black, white, purple or green but because Norwood is not a leader. She’s a talker, who has accomplished nothing. Reed doesnt seem to be the nicest guy and I honestly dont know him well, but his plans seem the most attainble and he has a REAL record to stand on.

It is so sad that many in Atlanta want to change the color of the leaders so bad that they would resort to Mary Norwood. As a black person, i have and will continue to support substantive candidates and much like Mayor Franklin over my life that has mostly been white candidates but Norwood doesn’t cut the muster. I would’ve had a very hard time supporting Reed if Cathy Woolard, Sam Williams, Cathy Ashe but in all fairness Mary Norwood is a JOKE!!

Don't Be Mad !

October 26th, 2009
4:45 pm

If YOU are from Atlanta and YOU know the people in these neighborhoods, then YOU know that Mary CAN win this race without a run-off…simply put, being pissed off is not relegated to color…Mary for Mayor!

Jackalope

October 26th, 2009
4:49 pm

PolitcalOrical: I correct myself before your post buddy boy.

Reed did an internal poll showing Norwood at almost 50.

Borders people are more likely to RETURN AND VOTE FOR NORWOOD.
Same with Spikes.

Betsy

October 26th, 2009
4:57 pm

Both Jackanape and Political O-Gimme-A-Break are talking out the sides of their campaign staff necks. Is Reed paying you both well enough these days to post these outlandish comments, or have you fallen on hard times, and are now blogging for the other teams?

newA

October 26th, 2009
5:00 pm

I think Reed will get 68%+ of Borders’ support, and 100% of Spikes support. Also, upon reading the crosstabs you will notice Norwood received a large % of the 18 – 29, which will not sustain; Reed will pull a lot of that support.

The race will tighten up between Reed and Norwood in the run-off.

THE REAL Shin Jasher

October 26th, 2009
5:08 pm

Borders may have slipped in the polls, but I don’t think we should count her out of the fight just yet,

mike

October 26th, 2009
5:12 pm

Shirly Franklin just upset because Mary Norwood won’t wear a flower the size of Texas on her chest!

OneChris

October 26th, 2009
5:18 pm

POLLS ARE CRAP … W BUSH never followed the polls and he was a 2 term prez

THE REAL Shin Jasher

October 26th, 2009
5:19 pm

OneChris, I’m actually finding myself agreeing with both you and *gulp* Betsy. Poll more than 1K people and then we’ll really see how it shakes out in Atlanta. These sub-600 people polls don’t mean a hill of beans with such a large and diverse electorate.

Scared to death

October 26th, 2009
5:22 pm

I am black and I am voting for Mary Norwood….I am ready for change! I don’t care if the candidate is poka dot, if they can change the City of Atlanta, I’m ready! Go Mary!!!!!!!!!

Betsy

October 26th, 2009
5:27 pm

Scared to death, how many sides did you get with that meal at The Beautiful? Don’t tell me she bought your vote too…

Dave

October 26th, 2009
5:28 pm

My vote will go to the candidate who promises to put some retail downtown.

THE REAL Shin Jasher

October 26th, 2009
5:29 pm

@Dave: Borders has promised that; she said as much in the APC debate last night.

Politico

October 26th, 2009
5:33 pm

Sorry folks, the sample size is correct for the a city the size of Atlanta. This isn’t a statewide or national race. The question– should there be a run-off– is not how much of Borders’ support Reed will get (not as much as one might think), but how much will return to the polls a second time. I suspect the Norwood base is a more reliable voter and will return with a lot less effort/money expended. Norwood is closing in on 50+ 1, which explains the widespread panic and Mayor Franklin’s post from yesterday. The closer she gets to 50, the tougher it will be to take her out in a run-off… if there is one.

itpdude

October 26th, 2009
5:45 pm

Norwood needs to keep her head down and play conservative football. She’s trending the correct way and Franklin’s anti-endorsement may help Norwood. She absolutely needs to avoid a runoff.

Dana Blankenhorn

October 26th, 2009
5:52 pm

People forget Atlanta is not a big city. There are only 500,000 people in the whole city — including kids. So a survey with 800 can be valid. The size of the necessary sample is always related to the size of the total universe.

facethefacts

October 26th, 2009
5:53 pm

face the facts people the next mayor is Norwood and im saying this as a black person. Just get behind her because most of the comments are from people who dont even live in the city and dont even know whos in office were there are in the outside the city

Bwood1906

October 26th, 2009
6:01 pm

I hope all these people being polled are City of Atlanta residents. It will be a runoff come on people! I was a supporter of Norwood but after these debates she has lost me totally. The more she talks and interacts with people the more ground she will lose. Reed has his finger more on the pulse of the residents but I hope he can get people out to vote twice!!!

Voice of Reason #1

October 26th, 2009
6:08 pm

‘Margaret’…Lisa isn’t William Holmes–she’s not her daddy. I think Shirley Franklin’s comments boosted Norwood’s chances. Go Mary!! I really hope Norwood wins this without a runoff; a runoff wouldn’t be to her advantage, I don’t think. I’ve had enough of seeing the present clique of Atlanta politicos. Let’s look at some of Mary’s mess for a while. It can’t be any worse than the past 10 years. And Atlanta is still waiting for its first real woman for mayor. Ask Luz.

GA Girl

October 26th, 2009
6:10 pm

Yea, Norwood all the way!

D. HAIRFIELD

October 26th, 2009
6:13 pm

If Mary Norwood is elected, the city of Atlanta is in deep ____!! Anyone
who would use family tragedies to promote her political agenda has absolutely no class at all!! Those ads showing where tragedies took place are appalling and she should be ashamed of herself. Surely Atlantans could use someone with much more class and integrity. She obviously has none!!

OZZFEST

October 26th, 2009
6:40 pm

Man, I would hate to have to choose from this idiotic field.
Kasim comes across as a bumbles from what I have seen on TV, if he wins I hope he can improve on his seeming “dumbness”.

North Fulton

October 26th, 2009
6:59 pm

White Folk 46 Black Folk 54. That’s the score.
The next mayor is Kasim Reed, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

pap

October 26th, 2009
7:07 pm

To: PoliticOracle, you are surely a hypocrite. I’m sure you voted for Obama. He was just a talker, and still is, and also has not done anything so those arguments show just how bigoted you really are, It’s all about race with you.

Steve Chaudointh

October 26th, 2009
7:20 pm

I am white and I live in Buckhead. I will not be voting for Mary Norwood. The published polls have no way of counting the white voters who will not publicly admit their distain for Norwood, a real Buckhead Betty. I know that Mary was trying to change Atlanta’s building code such that she would limit what I could build on my lot. Since I pay higher taxes than I care to admit, I should be able to build whatever the existing code allows. This is how Atlanta increases the tax base. I have just read Mary’s latest contribution report and see that numerous payments to black activists were paid and the only explanation was “outreach”. I wonder just how much outreach Mary has extended in the black community. Lisa Borders has the qualification to run the city, Mary should stick to the garden clubs.

SWBorn

October 26th, 2009
7:53 pm

If Shirley doesn’t like Norwood…than I LOVE NORWOOD!!!!

Mark

October 26th, 2009
8:06 pm

Has Shirly Franklin or any of the candidates ever visited downtown? Why is every other street light not working or pedestrian side walks left in ruin? Downtown has a begger on every corner and two thirds of the buildings are vacant.

AngryVoter

October 26th, 2009
8:13 pm

Yes, Franklin gave Norwood a huge boost by making it clear Norwood is the anti-Franklin.

Up until this weekend, I wasn’t sure if I was going to vote for Reed or Norwood. The more I learned about Reed, though, the less I thought of him as an agent of change and the more I thought of him as Franklin redux. Like most people just making up their mind, I’m voting for Norwood. Don’t want to, but she is the best of several lousy choices.

Now, if I could only decide who to vote for in the Governor’s race.

Lou

October 26th, 2009
8:17 pm

I just took a poll of 3 people….2/3 of those polled support Lisa Borders. This last poll is total crap. Mary Norwood is Atlanta’s Dan Quayle.

Ward

October 26th, 2009
8:18 pm

Personally, I can’t believe that any of these losers is about to elected Mayor.

Bubba

October 26th, 2009
8:38 pm

I’m a white male Republican on the north side. I will vote for Kasim Reed because he’s smart, politically experienced, competent, and has good sense. As much as I am tempted to vote for a fellow Caucasian who looks and sounds like my friends and neighbors, I believe that Reed will be the best choice to lead Atlanta.

Kris

October 26th, 2009
8:43 pm

Bill Campbell = Kasim Reed

john

October 26th, 2009
8:48 pm

When Lisa Borders had intruders in her home she was cowering in the bathroom. If she was a person of action and had a backbone, she would have confronted them with her firearm (which obviously she does not really own) and dropped them on the spot if they did not comply. Do we want her as a mayor with no backbone trying to lead this city out of the mess it’s in thanks to squirrely Shirley? I say NO !!! I’m voting for Mary Norwood and while I can’t say what Norwood would have done in that situation of having intruders in her home, I’m saying that I’m NOT voting for Borders because I CAN say that she is not the person of action and backbone that I would like to see as mayor. Norwood IS getting my vote because of all the candidates I have to choose from, I think she is the most likely to break up the Atlanta city government jobs factory infested by incompetent idiots. Maybe also the privatization of the airport will happen under Norwood while it was squashed by squirrely Shirley and Delta. I’d sure like to see those millions of $$$ lowering my property taxes.

tyger

October 26th, 2009
8:51 pm

Norwood is a Maverick!

Keith

October 26th, 2009
8:53 pm

Mark: Have you ever visited downtown? What the h*ll are you talking about?

cletus T Rockafella

October 26th, 2009
8:53 pm

This is pathetic at best. Borders: A waffling liar and a thief. Shirley Franklin: An incompetent POS who has squandered the taxpayers money and belongs in jail with bill campbell. A total loser.
Will Jones: a communist who despises America and prays for it’s demise.

New Zealand looking good. I say put the above trash I mentioned in jail, or expel them from this nation.

shirley

October 26th, 2009
8:57 pm

John, The airport is and has been a private/public partnership for at least 50 years. Of 50,000 people employed at the airport, 49,000 work for private companies not the city. The financial model of Hartsfiled Jackson world reknown for its success. Just 30 years ago the airport was a regional airport, now it is the busiest passenger airport in the world serving the entire Southeast region as the major economic catalyst. It would be a shame to dismantle this successful model and the state’s and SE region’s economy would suffer, meaning hundreds of jobs in small and medium size private businesses would be at stake. Squirrley I’m not. Your idea is squirrely. Shirley

jacko

October 26th, 2009
9:02 pm

omg, I’ve lived here 10 years and this whole time I wondered why Mayor Franklin kept changing her hair color??? Then, it hit me, that was Monica Kauffman. Crazy coincidence, but I’ll still be voting for Norwood. She looks like my neighbors as Bubba, AKA Leroy, said so sarcastically!

Truth be told

October 26th, 2009
9:09 pm

Just like she did in the Fulton County Commission race, where she invoked racial imagery to defeat Lee Morris, so now is Shirley stirring the racial pot to defeat Mary Norwood.

Mary Norwood has plenty of vision, intelligence and integrity, she just opposes Franklin’s autocratic rule and city hall that has run the city into a ditch.

Franklin’s legacy will be, and should be, a total repudiation of the status-quo and the election of a real change agent – Mary Norwood.

Reed and Borders would be 8 more years of Shirley Franklin.

Steve

October 26th, 2009
9:24 pm

I initially leaned towards Norwood but am voting for Borders. Youtube Norwood. She doesn’t even know the MARTA fare and she wants to run this city? Even the local politicians in my zone are “suggesting” Borders. My city council rep hinted to me that Norwood was unqualified and unorganized.

I think we’d be in deep trouble if we fell for Norwood, as she won’t be able to cut it. This city is a mess, and we need strong leadership, not a Buckhead Betty.