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WSB-TV poll: Kasim Reed moves into second place

6:32 pm October 23, 2009, by jgalloway

A WSB-TV poll released today shows Councilwoman Mary Norwood slightly padding her first-place lead and former state senator Kasim Reed moving into second place for the first time – at the expense of Council President Lisa Borders.

The survey, conducted by InsiderAdvantage, has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points; 591 registered, likely voters participated.

The details, according to the survey:

– Norwood at 41 percent, up 3 points from an Oct. 16 by WSB;

– Reed at 22 percent, up 5 points;

– Borders at 17 percent, down 7 points;

– Spikes at 2 percent, down 3 points;

– Undecided voters at 16 percent, up 3 points.

With a runoff likely, who finishes in second place is a crucial matter.

Reed’s rise and Borders descent both fall outside the margin of error, and thus can be considered statistically significant. Spokeswoman Liz Flowers said the Borders campaign wasn’t giving the latest survey much weight.

“Any poll that comes out now is just a snapshot of a moment of time. We still have a fairly significant group of undecided voters who will be making up their minds next week,” she said.

However, there are significant differences in the Oct. 16 and Oct. 23 polls that must be noted, according to cross tabs provided by InsiderAdvantage. We’re not exactly talking apples to apples.

First, the Oct. 23 poll presumes that African-Americans will make up 54 percent of the turnout. In the Oct. 16 poll, the results assumed that black voters would make up 62 percent of the turnout.

The turnout model for the Oct. 23 poll also presumes a significantly older turnout. Here’s the breakdown of ages in the Oct. 16 poll:

18-29: 30%

30-44: 25.1%

45-64: 26%

65+: 18.9%

This was the age distribution in the Oct. 23 poll:

18-29: 20%

30-44: 29.1%

45-64: 27.9%

65+: 23%

Now, IA CEO Matt Towery has already acknowledged that this mayoral race has been exceedingly tough to weight. No one knows who’ll show up on Nov. 3.

Even so, as one strategist suggested, such a shift in turnout models over a single week is somewhat unusual. Feel free to debate the merits of each.

For instant updates, follow me on Twitter.

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50 comments Add your comment

Krooked Kasim

October 23rd, 2009
6:51 pm

http://www.notkasim.blogspot.com

Will Jones - Atlanta Jeffersonian Exegesis

October 23rd, 2009
6:56 pm

Fascist plutocracy is not monolithic but under G-d, by the American Creed, the People must be.

The Norwood yard sign on West Paces Ferry Rd. signals a takeback after the Obama sign was there last year.

With the Public Option back “on the table,” some rich must be worried that brilliant Obama isn’t “under control.”

The noble, patriotic rich have nothing to fear.

Any vote for other than Lisa Borders for mayor condemns the progress made by President Obama’s election.

Bewigged bald troll Towery’s lie is doing a very wealthy person’s bidding.

The corrupt rich stole the White House with ‘Bush v. Gore.”

Shall We, the People of Atlanta, let City Hall be stolen as well, for Mary Bush Norwood?

Betsy

October 23rd, 2009
6:57 pm

How does Norwood continue to worm her way up over Borders and Reed? I know Norwood is buying the Black vote, but Khasim must be doing something…

Donny Fairplay

October 23rd, 2009
6:58 pm

I’m not exactly clear about that info you provided at the end, Jim. Does it mean that this poll was somehow measuring things differently than the previous ones?

Betsy

October 23rd, 2009
7:01 pm

Why aren’t the cross-tabs available? Towery and these polls…I tell you…

Parc

October 23rd, 2009
7:02 pm

Galloway hit the nail on the head when he said that this poll is “somewhat unusual.” Polls and surveys can be manipulated and this smells fishy…

Nina

October 23rd, 2009
7:03 pm

I can’t for the life of me imagine how any of the candidates and the undecided could move that much in so little time. From what I’ve seen on T.V. not much has happened in the past 7 days.

Jackalope

October 23rd, 2009
7:07 pm

The ONE constant in every poll that has been released this year is: Mary Norwood is in first place by a large margin. Period.

Betsy

October 23rd, 2009
7:08 pm

Jackalope: And?

GOPMary

October 23rd, 2009
7:14 pm

To be honest, I never believed that Towery’s polls were that credible. I don’t know how many registered voters there are in the city but 500 or so CAN’T be an appropriate sample. Towery is a known conservative so it’s no surprise that Mary’s been consistently in the lead. She bought Able Mable and Glenn Thomas today. I wouldn’t be surprised if she was buying these numbers too.

James, T.

October 23rd, 2009
7:14 pm

Why would he change the measurement standards from one poll to the next? That’s like changing field goals to 5 points and touchdowns to 3 and declaring a new winner. Is this how WSB-TV operates?

Jasher's Back!

October 23rd, 2009
7:18 pm

I heard about Mary Norwood’s press conference on the news this afternoon. I can’t believe she got both Able Mable and Glenn Thomas’ endorsements. Thomas has been super quiet since he dropped out; why he would pick now to get back in the race (and endorse a candidate who is opposed to his own campaign platform). This poll throws a total wrench into things. I seriously doubt the race’s momentum is changing THAT fast.

RT

October 23rd, 2009
7:27 pm

Why is it big news who is in 2nd. Why wouldn’t it be bigger news who is way out in front?

Politics At Its Finest

October 23rd, 2009
7:28 pm

The plot thickens…..

realdem

October 23rd, 2009
7:48 pm

Mary Norwood gets endorsed by an ex state rep who gave up her seat to take on John Lewis and a nobody that dropped out of the race, big deal.

Audrey in Georgia

October 23rd, 2009
8:23 pm

Mable Thomas and Glen Thomas endorsed Norwood. Those two may not be related, but
they are definitely from the same plantation. Articulate, intelligent, highly qualified, and bi-
partisan. These are the character traits for Lisa Borders, not Mary Norwood.

Truth be told

October 23rd, 2009
9:04 pm

The only place Reed and Borders can compete is on this blog. Mary out worked and out manevered them, and all you creeps can do is try to divide and critisize.

If you want to know why Reed and Borders are losing, all you need to do is listen to their supporters – arrogant, angry, racist losers who can’t understand that you have to earn peoples votes.

Borders and Reed can’t just talk their way into this office, when they have an opponent who has been working hard to earn peoples votes. Deal with it.

Angry Taxpayer

October 23rd, 2009
9:18 pm

Speaking for a mass of Angry Tax Payers that has figured out that both north and south Atlanta have been underserved, it is refreshing. So much rhetoric has been cast on the south getting this and the north getting that – not true we have all been shinola.

The thing about Mary – she is pure of heart.

Dave Dawg

October 23rd, 2009
9:23 pm

If it were up to Kasim Reed, the ill-conceived city of South Fulton would be battling Atlanta for resources. Yes, it was Reed who introduced the incorporation bills for the proposed cities of South Fulton and Chattahoochee Hills Country. (Voters denied South Fulton, but CHC did become a reality – so Reed is basically the founding father of that town.) Furthermore, you may remember that there was quite a battle in the Sandtown area, where South Fulton supporters were pitted against Atlanta supporters, with each group wanting the area within their city limits. In other words, Kasim Reed created a competing interest to Atlanta. And now he wants to be mayor of Atlanta. Go figure.

Will Jones - Atlanta Jeffersonian Exegesis

October 23rd, 2009
9:39 pm

As a Voice Over actress Mary learned to be whatever her employer wished.

Notice her “bobble-head” mannerism: She is nothing but a scripted, empty vessel/empty head, “on cue.”

The meaninglessness of the audit of the Watershed Dept. she demanded is proof of her lack of authenticity. Read it yourself and recall how big a deal she made of it.

Tell us of its statistical or financial significance, AT.

Childless and “inviolate,” apparently, she may be viewed as “pure of heart” by those of the deviant “Madonna” cult/pedophile priesthood, but like Liddy Dole, she is no woman…and that is what G-d gave her a chance to be in this life.

Be fooled if you wish. Atlanta must have better.

Mary Bush is bought and paid for – no pure heart there.

Truth be told

October 23rd, 2009
10:02 pm

More blacks and whites both choose Mary, and she polls higher than Reed and Borders combined. Atlanta knows Mary and they like her. It’s time for a mayor that spends more time in the neighborhoods that the boardrooms.

Reed and Borders can be mayor of downtown, but Mary is the mayor of Atlanta’s neighborhoods.

Love never fails

October 23rd, 2009
10:41 pm

It’s very interesting how someone has the time to create a blogspot website to discredit a candidate. It seems as if other candidate supporters are getting so scared/anxious that they will put just about anything untruthful to make their candidate seem more popular and accepted than the other. The person who said “Reed did not support the legislation that funded ending the furloughs and he often panders to voters by decrying how the measure raised their taxes.” Is totally NOT TRUE!! Senator Reed supported the legislation and he also led a petition to stop the furloughs.

Please check out each candidate for yourself, check their websites, and attend forums and debates. Don’t listen to everything you hear second hand or believe everything you read. Just as President Obama prevailed…so shall the right person for mayor of Atlanta prevail!!!

Experienced Mayor Wanted

October 23rd, 2009
10:51 pm

Skewed and unreliable polls might be making Norwood feel good right now but votes are going to determine who is elected, not a phone survey.

As for me, I want to see a mayor with actual experience and a track record to look at. Atlanta is a major, international city and we need someone who can work with the multitude of parties a Mayor is going to have to deal with. Kasim is the only candidate with a strong track record. What has Norwood done beyond putting in face time while campaigning in neighborhoods. She’s introduced two pieces of legislation since 1998 and keeps talking about how she has “tried” to do various things. Atlanta doesn’t need a bake sale Mayor to deal with the world’s busiest airport. Atlanta needs a mayor with a history of getting things done. In other words, Atlanta needs Kasim Reed for Mayor

sammye

October 23rd, 2009
10:56 pm

Not sure what Towery will announce next since he’s changed his weighting by age, race and gender with every poll. Not certain any of these polls make much sense. I agree with Flowers that they are a snapshot. Good news is Norwood hasn’t hit 50% yet but she’s inching closer every day. A runoff election might sharpen the focus on more of the issues (economic recovery, jobs, education, water, infrastructure repair) and away from personalities.

ATL

October 23rd, 2009
11:25 pm

What’s the deal with the obnoxious anti-Kasim blog? That’s an obvious surrogate for one of the other candidates.

reason

October 23rd, 2009
11:26 pm

Will Jones, such is blowing a lot of hot air out there.

Will Jones - Atlanta Jeffersonian Exegesis

October 23rd, 2009
11:46 pm

Use “reason” to review the audit Mary Bush cites to appear to have accounting acumen. Tell us of its import as there is none. She is a sham bought and paid for by very Big Money. Kasim Reed is no better.

reason

October 24th, 2009
12:04 am

Don’t know any of the ladies running for office, but surely they must have a few skeletons in the closet.
There is no such a thing as a is Lilly clean politician, so making accusation of one being better than the other is pure inconsequential, and without basis. Once they become elected they open their hand to all new supporters with big money. Big money is what help get them elected, they get money one way or another,it doesn’t matter who they are or where they come from. Remember Angels don’t run for office, and if they did this would be a lot better world.

RSC

October 24th, 2009
5:32 am

A runoff will happen. Norwood will not beat Kasim. Mary’s supporters should split their votes to ensure a runoff with Lisa. This is Mary’s only hope.

NO_OBAMA

October 24th, 2009
7:25 am

Just like all the black people that voted for a man with no experience to be president because of his skin color, I would vote for Norwood because of her color. However, she DOES have experience and would be great mayor of Atlanta, not just a vehicle for getting all her cronies city jobs like past mayors.

Will Jones - Atlanta Jeffersonian Exegesis

October 24th, 2009
7:29 am

Displaced by the awakening around the world of Individualism, the “Global Revolution,” as Dr. King named it: followers of Jeffersonian Whiggism and the ideals established by the American Revolution against colonialism’s Old Sectarian Order of caesaropapism, America has been the “refuge” for foreign false “elites,” fascists who now among us have coalesced around the Gay Old Pervert party (recall the Nazis who were discovered in Reagan’s and GHWBush’s campaign organizations http://www.amazon.com/Old-Nazis-Right-Republican-Party/dp/0896084183 ).

Our City’s Metro Area has now been marked as the preferred “retirement” refuge for the aging echelon of Americans who permitted, or wished, Mafia-front closet-queen J.Edgar Hoover and the Knight of Malta-led Roman Catholic CIA to reign over Our Nation through JFK’s assassins Richard Nixon and George Herbert Walker Bush after their Vatican-banker and Big Oil-through-”Murder and Arson” Rockefeller overlords and the Roman Anti-Christ used Prescott Bush to finance Hitler’s rise, and Auschwitz, with impunity.

Ronald Reagan was an actor hired to front for American fascism in his turn: his line, like “new hire” actress Mary Bush’s was also cut off.

Kasim’s and Mary Bush’s “status,” vis-a-vis Divine Providence, is the same: barren. Where is Grace?

Regardless of Reed’s future, his past defines him, on margin, as a tool of power protecting corrupt privilege in an historically racist society.

So Rome, identified by America’s two prophets, Jefferson and King, as “the real Anti-Christ,” and “the wrong side of the Global Revolution,” and its American “Fifth Column,” is now to succeed, through hype and fabricated polling by an accursed bald troll, conquering Atlanta through phony electioneering (which gained power for NSDAP in Germany by the same faction) where ultimately Rome’s 2,000 years as the “Wall Street of Slavery” and Roman Catholic William Tecumseh Sherman failed?

Just as it is we who must “cast the Beast into the Pit,” it is the Atlanta voter who must go to the polls and make sure the Obama Revolution is not reversed in this Cultural Capital of True America.

Supporters of Rockefeller-fronts, Nixon and the Bushes, are witting or unwitting fascists serving the historic “engine for enslaving mankind,” threatened by Whig America and the anointed Barack Obama. There is open police corruption in at least one county next to Atlanta.

If Metro Atlanta is now to be the refuge for corrupt wealth in retirement it is necessary that the urban center – Our City – be “conformed” to fascism: Mary Bush Norwood and Kasim Reed are the candidates to effect that transition away from the Power of the People and the discomfort that citizen sovereignty presents to the corrupt rich.

DeTocqueville, a “titled,” wealthy Frenchman, noted a distinctive trait among our ancestors in 1830’s America: “common” workers who walked along the highway and believed themselves inferior to none but G-d. What could they possibly have been thinking?

“Sovereign” was an alternate term for “citizen” in America.

Now with Obama’s election and restored awareness of G-d’s covenant with America, fascist plutocracy needs to bring Atlanta “to heel,” and gaslighting us into voting for their candidates is the way to do it.

As our numbers overcame the lies and evil to make Obama Our President despite “Satan’s” desire for inbred whitetrash Sarah Palin and Married to the Mob McCain, We Atlantans must now overtop the evil being foisted off on us to make Lisa Borders Elect as our next mayor.

G-d will sustain the New Jerusalem of Atlanta. Only the good are tested.

Let’s “pass the test,” Atlanta, for this is the Best City in the World and the “last ditch” in the fight against the Beast of perdition.

Obama is Atlanta’s President. Let’s make Lisa Borders Atlanta’s Mayor and let the Devil take the hindmost.

dgroy

October 24th, 2009
8:17 am

Will Jones – Atlanta Jeffersonian Exegesis

October 24th, 2009
7:29 am
WOW……that’s quite a diatribe, Will Jones. You sound like a person who knows it all and should be the one running for mayor of your great city…….”A city too busy to hate”????? Racists come in all colors and by your remarks, you sound darker than most. You know, you can support a candidate without making all the other candidates sound like they’re straight from H***. With supporters like you, your candidate doesn’t need many enemies……you make up for more than he/she/it needs. You should have taken your sedative before you wrote the above.

SpaceyG on Twitter

October 24th, 2009
8:41 am

Mary Norwood – the bobble head candidate. That works. “Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat. “Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.”Hi, I’m Mary Norwood!” Grin. Shake. Move on. Rinse. Repeat.You get the point.

SpaceyG on Twitter

October 24th, 2009
8:44 am

Will Jones should not type while smoking crack at the same time.

Norwood for Mayor!

October 24th, 2009
8:46 am

Norwood Unfiltered…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS0ekhf6PHM

Black Latino Council

October 24th, 2009
8:58 am

I think the undedcided is mauch larger than whats reported and with the expected low voter turn out. Who knows what will happen..
I like to ask Ms Norwood who did she vote for President and Governor.MMMMmmmm

ATL Handicapper

October 24th, 2009
9:03 am

Everyone seems to be producing a poll these days, but there is only on Vote-O-Meter. It agrees with Insider Advantage in only one respect: As Election Day nears, uncertainty about who to vote for is growing. The Vote-O-Meter now forecasts that if the election were held today, the votes would be Mary Norwood 38%; Lisa Borders – 29%; Kasim Reed – 25%; Jesse Spikes – 4%, Kyle Keyser – 4%; Peter Brownlowe – 0%. Norwood’s lead continues and her strategy of laying low is working. Borders remains a strong second, with Reed needing a solid finish. Spikes and Keyser are keeping their small but committed followers, and Keyser is picking up some protest votes.

Tea 4 2

October 24th, 2009
10:43 am

The first 1 to promise to cancel all of the no bid contracts to the Maynard Jackson family has my vote.

booger

October 24th, 2009
11:04 am

Looks like Jay Bookman’s endorsment of Reed yesterday had an impact. And this after the AJC’s declaration last Sunday that they would no longer endorse political candidates.

Base

October 24th, 2009
11:09 am

If Mad Matt did the poll it probably is manipulated.What a bunch of crooks.

Brad

October 24th, 2009
11:24 am

Mary Norwood wants no part of Kasim Reed in the runoff. Kasim will blow her away one on one.

Lis

October 24th, 2009
1:50 pm

Damn, Borders camp must be horrified…they got a week left, better do something…Kasim Reed looks like he’s headed to the Mayor seat..,,I believe both Borders and Reed will easily defeat Norwood in a runoff

Truth be told

October 24th, 2009
2:19 pm

Reed and Borders’s supporters are pinning all their hopes on racial-bloc voting. You should realize that Mary has earned the votes of blacks and whites alike through years of hard constituent service work. That’s why more blacks support Mary than Reed and Borders combined, because they have done squat. Come election day, those voters are going to remember who did their job without regard to race, and vote without regard to race.

Atlanta truly is a city too busy to hate and Mary’s election will prove it.

To those who say Norwood is inarticulate, I challenge you to listen here and compare with Reed and Borders:

http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/wabe/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1565340/Atlanta/Mary.Norwood..candidate.for.mayor.of.Atlanta..talks.with.Steve.Goss.(Part.1)

http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/wabe/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1565343/Atlanta/Mary.Norwood..candidate.for.mayor.of.Atlanta..talks.with.Steve.Goss.(Part.2)

Lee

October 24th, 2009
2:51 pm

LISA BORDERS IS THE KEY TO OUR CITY GETTING BACK TO RESPECTABILTY AND RUNNING WELL. The other candidates re playing moke and mirror games with the uneducated voter who do not know their background. THIS IS A SEVERE WEAKNESS IN THIS CAMPAIGN SEASON. No candidate utilized their position to show some drastic weaknness in the other candidate. Weaknesses that the voting public, black and white, should know about. I am more than confident that the intellegent voters will let their voices be heard come November 3rd.

While

October 24th, 2009
2:57 pm

I don’t know Lee, looks like Borders is yesterday’s news. To drop 7 points in a week is mystifying. Norwood is probably trying her best to figure how to stop Reed from overtaking her.

PolitOracle

October 24th, 2009
11:43 pm

@Truth be told

Mary Norwood has not served Atlanta communities. She has pandered to and bought SOME neighborhood leadership, who can be as selfish as any politician.

Any INSIDER watching Norwood’s Beautiful restaurant video can spot many of Atlanta’s neighborhood “leaders”, Most of these people are good people, but some are power-hungry folks that are disgruntled that the city, county and any other gov’t entity doesn’t bend over backwards for every demand they make, no matter how far-fetched they may be.

I am a smart voter and will tell you that Mary WONT be our mayor. Not because she’s white, or a woman, but because she’s an ambulance chaser and reactor not a forward thinking or smart leader. Did I mention she’s a major panderer? She really doesn’t do well in the room with smart, independent people (white, black or other).

FINAL THOUGHT: For every disgruntled, so-called neighborhood leader, there are 20 smart Atlantans that will vote for the best and brightest candidate. This person will have a proven record and they will be smart enough not to promise the world to folks when they haven’t delivered on much of anything.

I am coming to know this person to be Kasim Reed. I was skeptical at first, but he has run a smart campaign and has stuck to the issues – all while challenging his opponents on substance.

Nice try Norwood, but voters are smarter than you (think).

Rathburh

October 25th, 2009
8:50 am

For years Norwood many voted Republican, but since she wanted to run as a Democrat as the Mayor of Atlanta, she changed her voting pattern.

Another flip flopping panderer…

http://www.sundaypaper.com/More/Archives/tabid/98/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4652/The-uninformed.aspx

October 25th, 2009
10:40 am

Atlanta’s Uninformed and Undecided.

http://www.sundaypaper.com/More/Archives/tabid/98/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4652/The-uninformed.aspx

October 25th, 2009
10:41 am

Enter your comments here

newA

October 25th, 2009
8:56 pm

Looks like Reed and Norwood in the run-off…