The case for and against comeback governors in Georgia
A cross-blog discussion on the history of comeback governors in Georgia erupted this morning, making for some good Sunday reading.
Last week, in a piece on InsiderAdvantage, UGA political scientist Charles Bullock described the weight of history that stands against a return by Roy Barnes to the Governor’s Mansion:
In recent generations, only the Talmadges have managed to do encores in the governor’s mansion after an absence. Gene won a third two-year term in 1940, lost in 1942 and then won a fourth time in 1946 although he died before assuming the office. The 1946 Democratic primary actually featured two former governors as E. D. Rivers (1937-40) placed third.
But this morning, Democratic strategist Ed Kilgore posted a rebuttal on fivethirtyeight.com. “As is often the case with such precedents,” he writes, “this one doesn’t withstand much examination.”
Writes Kilgore:
Marvin Griffin’s failed comeback in 1962 had less to do with hostility towards “second acts” than with the fact that it was the first statewide election held after the “one person, one vote” Supreme Court decision in Baker v. Carr, which led to the abolition of Georgia’s county unit system (a heavily rural-slanted and vastly unrepresentative version of the national electoral college). Griffin would have won easily if the old system had remained in place.
Ernest Vandiver’s attempted comeback in 1966 was thwarted not by voters, but by his own decision to withdraw from the race for health reasons.
Ellis Arnall’s attempted comeback that same year occurred after he had been out of office for twenty years; he lost in no small part because runoff opponent Lester Maddox benefited from a large Republican crossover vote (GOPers back then didn’t do primaries, and Maddox was considered the weakest Democratic candidate).
Maddox actually lost the popular vote in the general election, and was elevated to the governorship by the heavily Democratic legislature because neither candidate won a majority; his “comeback” defeat eight years later came as no surprise, particularly since the period of segregationist agitation that made Maddox famous had long since ended.
This leaves just one failed comeback that can plausibly be explained as something other than sui generis: Carl Sanders’ comeback campaign in 1970, when he lost to a guy named Jimmy Carter, a pretty fair country politician.
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© 2009 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
6 comments Add your comment
No thank you
June 14th, 2009
6:53 pm
Barnes deserves to be consigned to the dustbin of history if for no other reason than, rather than address the issues that really compromise education, he demonized teachers for his own petty personal ambition to be a potential political player on the national stage.
We have more than enough of the current crop that puts personal gain ahead of integrity and public service. Why add one more?
Everything Comes Around
June 14th, 2009
6:59 pm
Just as an aside, Ken Hodges, http://www.kenhodges.com, is being supported by Bo Callaway’s family and although not formally announced, probably Bo Callaway as well who was the republican that beat Maddox in Georgia’s first truly democratic campaign for Governor.
Curly Girly-man
June 14th, 2009
11:16 pm
“Segregationist agitation long since expired”?
Well, it’s baaaaack!
GOP = White Power!
frank d
June 15th, 2009
12:54 am
Of course Barnes worshipper Galloway doesn’t link to his own newspaper’s story about the high and mighty Roy’s shady clients like he did with the stories about John Oxendine’s campaign money. For the record, Jim, the people of Cobb are not going to vote to make Dwight Brown’s thug their Governor. And that’s a lot of votes.
Now that I’ve said my peace, Jim, you can now go back to praying in the direction of that temple Roy built himself in Marietta. I’d laugh every time I drive past that thing if my money (by way of Cobb EMC to Dwight Brown to Roy Barnes) wasn’t paying for it.
saltine
June 15th, 2009
8:10 am
As a youthful political enthusiast, I remember the Griffin-Sanders race of 1962 very well. Perhaps my memory is playing one of those tricks that often seem to be its principle function, but I recall that someone did a calculation of the “unit votes” that were no longer being counted in Democratic primaries for the first time, and Sanders actually won that tally, as best as it could be calculated.
Unit votes were assigned by a formula that allocated 2 to each county, 4 to a group of larger counties, and 6 to the largest counties. The reallocation of the units to the larger counties, to have been based on the 1960 Census, was never done because of the legal decision ending the unit system; an exact tally of unit votes was not necessarily accurate.
stuck
June 15th, 2009
11:33 am
You have to remember times were different in the 1970’s and Carter launched a campaign with deep racial overtones against Sanders. The Sanders loss can be explained as easily as the previous four races. I know this historical perspective is contrary to Carter’s current infallibility, but it is what it is.