Swing State Project, a Democrat-oriented blog, this morning gives its horse-race line on 25 gubernatorial races in 2010: Ten are rated as leaning or likely Republican, nine are likely or leaning Democrat, and six are ranked as toss-ups.
SSP isn’t yet convinced of Democratic chances in Georgia, which it still calls a “likely” GOP refuge:
Democrats have already drawn a pair of credible candidates for this race in Attorney General Thurbert Baker and state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, with ex-Gov. Roy Barnes also waiting in the wings. But despite Barack Obama’s impressive performance here in 2008, Democrats have been dropping like flies at the statewide level in Georgia since 2002, and anyone nominated here will have to run an impressive race in order to overcome the state’s friendliness toward the GOP brand.
Republicans have a crowded primary of their own, with both Secretary of State Karen Handel and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine in the mix. Democrats received a minor lift here with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle’s surprise decision to seek re-election, and this race has a lot of potential to slide toward the competitive column if the Democratic primary can stay clean.
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