Posts Tagged ‘Atlanta Falcons’

"There's nothing to sweat, guys. We'll dazzle 'em with analytics." (AP photo by Matt Slocum)

Two sets of numbers are at play in the run-up to Falcons-Seahawks. There are your basic W’s and L’s — quoth Bill Parcells: “In the NFL, you are what your record says you are” — and the Falcons were 13-3 in the regular season to Seattle’s 11-5. But more advanced analytics exist, and nearly all suggest that a road team with a lesser record and a rookie quarterback should win Sunday.

“On a play-to-play basis, Seattle has been a much better team that Atlanta,” said Rivers McCown of Football Outsiders. “That doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to play out on the field.”

“Back in 2010, when Atlanta was the No. 1 seed, all the advanced metrics said Green Bay was the No. 1 team in the NFC,” said Chase Stuart of Football Perspective. “Seattle fits that mold a little bit.”

The Falcons tied with Denver for the NFL’s best record. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average …

Continue reading Falcons-Seahawks: Better record against better numbers »

Here's how it was when last the Falcons were the No. 1 seed. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)

Fort Lauderdale – Owing to the national championship game, our weekly Heat Check emanates from warm environs. We begin, however, with professional football.

FALCONS: It has already started. The No. 1 seed hasn’t yet stuck its toe in playoff waters, and again we’re hearing that it’s out of its depth. The local franchise sits behind five other teams on the odds-to-win-the-Super-Bowl tote board, and it’s even with Seattle, which has to play in the Georgia Dome on Sunday. Technically the Falcons are a two-point favorite over the Seahawks, which is the same tepid betting line the 13-3 Birds faced when playing host to Green Bay two years ago. And they lost that one 48-21. Atmospheric reading: I’ve been saying since August that these Falcons are different. Here’s where they prove me right.

GEORGIA: Won the Capital One Bowl, lost Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree to the NFL, kept Aaron Murray. That …

Continue reading Heat Check: Will the Falcons again feel the January chill? »

The Falcons stopped Doug Martin the first time around, but not the second. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)

This post is an adjunct to the game column, which can be found by clicking here.

1. Offensively, the Falcons were offensive. Matt Ryan’s longest completion — in 44 throws — was for 28 yards, this against an opponent that ranked last in the NFL in pass defense. Their longest run was a 17-yard touchdown burst by Michael Turner, who finished with only 18 yards on six carries. They converted three of 14 third downs. They managed but 278 total yards, their second-lowest yield of the season, and 17 points, a seasonal low. Good thing they played the starters, eh?

2. Defensively, they weren’t much better. The Falcons didn’t muster a sack. They intercepted only one pass by Josh Freeman, who’d thrown eight in the past two games. After holding the smallish rookie Doug Martin to 50 yards in a narrow victory in Tampa on Nov. 25, they saw him rush for 142 yards on 28 carries Sunday, …

Continue reading As for the Falcons’ game itself: It was pretty crummy, too »

Presenting the scariest sight of a mostly sublime regular season. (AJC photo by Johnny Crawford)

For the coach of a team that cannot improve its playoff positioning, there’s no right way to approach a game that doesn’t matter. If you rest your starters, you chance an edge being lost. If you play them, you leave yourself open to the vagaries of football. Mike Smith stated his intentions — the Falcons would play to win — and stuck to his word. Give him that, if nothing else.

With 11:42 remaining in the regular season, the Falcons’ only real pass rusher was helped from the field after getting tangled with teammate Peria Jerry. John Abraham exited with a bad ankle, and right about here folks stopped seeing Smith as the coach who can’t get it right on fourth-and-1 and started castigating him as the guy who’d sacrificed a key asset in a game of no value.

Already cornerback Dunta Robinson had been taken the locker room with an injury — he’d led with his head yet again — and Asante …

Continue reading In losing a nothing game, the Falcons risked losing far more »

Were I coaching, this Falcon stalwart would do a lot of watching in Game 16. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)

Mike Smith, who coaches the Falcons, says he’s playing to win Game 16, even though Game 16 means absolutely nothing. The Falcons know when (two weeks hence) and where (here) they’ll be playing next, and they know they don’t have to leave town to qualify for the Super Bowl.

As much as you can say that winning sets a tone, I’d suggest that tone has been sounded in Games 1-15. And there’s no compelling history on whether winning a Game 16 that doesn’t matter makes one smidgen of difference come the playoffs.

In 2007 the Patriots won their final regular-season game to get to 16-0 … but a month later they lost the Super Bowl to the team they’d beaten in Game 16. Last year the Packers won Game 16 behind their backup quarterback Matt Flynn to get to 15-1 … and lost their first postseason game.

If the Falcons beat the Buccaneers 45-24 today — that was the score in Game 16 last …

Continue reading Live from Falcons-Bucs: A mighty tough game to manage »

In 2012, there was much cause for football celebration in these environs. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)

For a while there, I had to ask myself, “Old son, did you really change your first name to ‘Homer’?” Because that’s what I was getting called by many of y’all. Prompting this charge was my stated belief that Georgia, Georgia Tech and the Falcons would all win divisions. But with 2013 near at hand, this Homer must confess that he considers his prognosticating work of 2012 a triumphant odyssey.

Because Georgia won its division. And so did Georgia Tech. And so did the Falcons. And who called it way back when?

The jinx of all jinxing. The archduke of addled thinking. Dumb ol’ MB.

Usually the annual Accountability Scoreboard serves a three-course dinner of Crow Soup, Crow Mignon and Humble Pie. Not this time. And yes, I’m as surprised as you are.

I predicted every Georgia regular-season game correctly. I did miss on the bigger part of my UGA prediction: The Bulldogs will not …

Continue reading UGA, Tech and the Falcons as division champs? I called it »

How the last 14-2 Falcons fared. (AJC photo by Marlene Karas)

Our weekly Heat Check commences with a team that just aced its final regular-season exam.

FALCONS: Beat the reigning Super Bowl champion 34-0, which, according to Elias, is the worst shutout loss ever suffered by a reigning Super Bowl champion (Elias also notes that only three previous teams in NFL history had been shut out the week after scoring 50 points. You mightn’t be surprised that the Falcons, who beat the Saints 62-7 in 1973 and then lost to the Rams 31-0, made that list.) Atmospheric reading: The Falcons can finish the regular season 14-2. Every single Falcons team to finish a regular season 14-2 has reached the Super Bowl. (OK, so that’s a grand total of one.)

HAWKS: Were briefly tied for first place in the NBA Southeast before losing here to Golden State by 22 points. Atmospheric reading: At hand is a case of extremes — tonight the Hawks play in Washington, owner of the league’s worst record, and …

Continue reading Heat Check: History says 14-2 Falcons would be Super lock »

Meet cornerback Asante Samuel, Eli Manning's not-so-favorite receiver. (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)

I understand, sort of, the temptation to underrate the Falcons. Their numbers — well, apart from 12-2 — aren’t gaudy. They’re seventh in total offense, 20th in total defense. Of those 12 wins, eight have come against teams currently under .500. Of those 12 wins, seven have been by a touchdown or less. They really didn’t whomp anybody any good until Sunday, and even then …

On cue, Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders posted Monday on ESPN Insiders that the Falcons’ 34-0 drubbing of the Giants was nothing special. Wrote Verhei: “It was just one game in a long season, and a clear outlier at that, not a new standard of excellence.”

Again, some of this I understand. To watch this team week by week — though not this past week, I should stipulate — has been to wonder how it wins so many games. But we’re at the point where the Falcons have amassed a substantial body of work, and in the …

Continue reading A Super sign? The Falcons have flummoxed three elite QBs »

Good coverage, but a better throw by Matt Ryan and catch by Tony G. (AP photo by Rich Addicks)

This post is an adjunct to the game column, which can be found by clicking here.

1. Stem to stern, that’s the most impressive Atlanta Falcons regular-season performance I’ve seen — and I’ve been following them since 1984. My standard for prove-it games has long been the 41-10 road thrashing of the Patriots on Nov. 8, 1998, and the 1998 Birds wound up in the Super Bowl. This year’s victory in Philadelphia ahead of Hurricane Sandy was the most comprehensive I’d covered since, but that one paled alongside this, which featured domination literally from the first. The Giants’ David Wilson chose to return the opening kickoff from six yards deep in the end zone, and reserve defensive end Cliff Matthews tackled him on the 13. Two plays later, the Falcons had the ball. Four plays after that, they had the lead.

2. That’s why the Falcons wanted Asante Samuel. Not only did the cornerback jump …

Continue reading The Falcons’ domination, adroit Asante and one great play »

"Yeah, baby! Why don't you take that 24-2 and give my regards to Broadway?" (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)

So now we know: In addition to being a darn good football team, the Atlanta Falcons are the world’s best sandbaggers.

In working 13 games of varying quality, they’d dropped the hint that this team was no better than before and was, ergo, bound for the same one-and-done postseason fate. Turns out the Falcons were just being sly. “Go hyperventilate over somebody else,” they were saying, “while we win enough games to put ourselves in position. And then you can tell us again how we can’t beat anybody any good when it matters.”

On Sunday this unassuming crew dropped a 500-pound sandbag on the collective noggin of the reigning Super Bowl champions. Forty-nine weeks ago, the Falcons were overpowered 24-2 in the Meadowlands. But these Falcons, as was made manifest Sunday, are not those Falcons. These Falcons not only beat the haughty Giants by 34 points but pulled off a deft bit …

Continue reading By crushing the champion, the Falcons show they’re Super »