History may favor the underdog Irish, but Bama is too good
Precedent? This guy eats precedent for breakfast! (AP photo)
Fort Lauderdale – The history of the BCS title game isn’t exactly exhaustive, dating as it does to that long-ago time of January 1999, but even in that small sampling a commonality winds through. Since this “system” was implemented, no school has repeated as BCS champ.
On Monday night, Alabama is favored to annex a second consecutive national title (and a third in four seasons, and the 115th in Tide annals if we go by Bama’s ever-escalating count). The worst thing we can say about this Tide team is that it’s superb, but other superb defending champs have arrived at this juncture only to trip over the final hurdle.
Three times a program has sought to stack BCS titles end to end. Three times it has failed, and each failure came as a shock. Favored by 10 ½ points, Florida State was beaten 13-2 in January 2001 by Oklahoma – the Seminoles’ offense was overseen that night by a distracted Mark Richt, who had already taken a job in Athens – and that was the mildest example. The other two were seismic.
In January 2003, an unbeaten-yet-unassuming Ohio State met No. 1 Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. Almost half the Buckeyes’ victories had been so close that they became known as the Luckeyes, and sometimes it’s better to be lucky than … well, you know. Ohio State, an 11 ½-point underdog, took the Hurricanes to overtime and appeared to have lost when a fourth-down pass fell incomplete, but a late penalty flag brought new life and, in short order, a stunning national championship.
In January 2006, Texas arrived at the Rose Bowl as the designated victim of a team being hailed as the greatest ever. USC actually was going for a third national title, the 2003 version having been awarded by the Associated Press but not the BCS, and its 55-19 thrashing of Oklahoma in the January 2005 Orange Bowl was still fresh in everyone’s mind.
It was so fresh that, on the morning before the Rose Bowl, this correspondent asked Texas coach Mack Brown how it felt to have a team so good that was being given no chance. (The unbeaten Longhorns were a touchdown underdog.) Laughing sardonically, Brown thanked us media folks for providing that goad. Then his Longhorns, Vince Young chief among them, went out and won the greatest collegiate game ever played.
As for the here and now: Notre Dame is unbeaten, but seems the choice of nobody. It has won five games by seven or fewer points, which recalls the Luckeyes of 10 years ago. It is a 10-point underdog to a team ranked below it, which recalls the Oklahoma of 11 years back. It is a program of massive tradition that many view as out of its depth, which recalls the Texas of Vince Young.
Loading ...If you’re Brian Kelly, who coaches Notre Dame, you love these dynamics: To be No. 1 in the land and the school of Rockne and Ara and the Gipper to boot and still to be roundly expected to lose by a nice round number … that’s a better underdog story than “Rudy.” (Which was the tale of a Fighting Irish walk-on who sacked the Georgia Tech quarterback.)
The temptation is mighty to pick an Irish upset – this from someone who picked both Ohio State in 2003 and Texas in 2006 – but there’s an even greater deterrent. None of the defending champs who suffered BCS upsets were from the SEC, and the SEC has gotten so good at winning national championships that it would take a monumental performance by a transcendent player to derail this locomotive. As stout as Notre Dame is, there’s no Vince Young on its roster.
This Alabama team isn’t quite as imposing as the BCS titlists of 2011 and 2009, and its home loss to Texas A&M and its narrow escapes against LSU and Georgia offer cause for Irish hope. (And so, in an oblique manner, do the bowl losses suffered by Florida and LSU of the almighty SEC.) But A&M scored 29 points in beating the Tide, and Georgia would have needed 33.
Notre Dame has broken 30 in only four of its 12 games. It ranks 74th nationally in scoring offense. Its defense is match for Bama’s; its offense is not. The Tide, who rushed for 350 yards against Georgia, might not get half that against the Irish, but Alabama does find ways to score. (It has mustered 30 or more points in 11 of its 13 games, LSU and Texas A&M being the exceptions.)
It would not be surprising to see this championship game finish 17-10. It would, however, be surprising if Notre Dame had the 17. Precedent favors the underdog, but reality, as ever, favors Alabama.
By Mark Bradley
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247 comments Add your comment
atlxman
January 4th, 2013
11:32 pm
texas am lost 2 this year because they moved to the sec
atlxman
January 4th, 2013
11:37 pm
fact finder…that doesnt sound right. manziel is a red shirt freshman so he had a year plus to get the playbook down…plus they run the same 6 plays over and over with him mostly running. they lost 2 because they played 2 really good teams in the sec whos defense matched up with texas am offense
SEC Fact Finder
January 4th, 2013
11:50 pm
atlxman,
New Coaching staff, and Johnny was not the original guy Sumlin had as ‘his” pick at quarterback, not until summer reporting did Johnny get the system down. I have no doubt that those same two good teams would not want to play A&M late in the season after they started playing like a cohesive unit. We saw one of those both of those same teams stink it up in their bowl games.
VICARIOUS FANS
January 5th, 2013
12:08 am
:Maybe we should just play the game and save the “guessing” of the outcome to those who like to gamble.
Beano
January 5th, 2013
12:24 am
Excited bout this BCS Champ….I’m goin NDAME since Bama getting all the hype and 10.5 favorite.
Big Crimson 75
January 5th, 2013
12:28 am
We’ll be ready.
Our QB will put up his 2nd consecutive MVP effort in the Trophy Game.
Our D won’t give up 2 TD’s.
This is the weakest Bama Unit of the Saban era, aside from year 1.
This was the year to take Us.
Problem is, our Coach is best. He is the Standard all others strive for.
We’re back next year the Team to beat.
Respect to Notre Dame, The 2 Historic Programs of College Football — Bama Rolls.by 20+ Monday Night.
Saban will have a Defensive Game-Plan which will smother ND.
AJ plays well at QB, We Roll.
7576DAWG
January 5th, 2013
1:32 am
One of Notre Dames big wins this year was against Oklahoma which 2 lost Texas A&M destroyed tonight. Alabama will beat Notre Dame 38 to 14. The National Championship game should have been Alabama against Oregon and Georgia should have played Stanford or Notre Dame. Then Florida should have played the team Georgia did not play. Those are the kind of games that would have had packed stadiums.
7576DAWG
January 5th, 2013
1:58 am
10.5 favorite is about right but don’t be surprised if Alabama doesn’t win 24 to 7 or by 17 .
Jim
January 5th, 2013
8:00 am
LSU’s loss to Clemson had just as much to do with poor clock management by the Hatter (who finally got his comeuppance) as it did Clemson actually winning the game.
Dawg Patrol
January 5th, 2013
8:02 am
Bama wins this one by a TD but will not cover the spread. Should be a great game ND is definitly no pushover but Bama will prevail……….Take the points
Athens PD
January 5th, 2013
8:04 am
Clearly, Texas A&M is the class of the SEC. The Cotton Bowl hosted the national championship game last night. The Monday night game is Miami is an afterthought.
furmandawg
January 5th, 2013
8:12 am
I haven’t drunk the kool aid on ND all year. Yes, they deserve to be there but I don’t think they are good. Narrow wins against Purdue and Pitt just don’t excite me. Bama will rout, cover the spread and send ND back to 7-5 next year.
Time and Tide
January 5th, 2013
8:19 am
I know that Dawg Nation will be unanimous in cheering the mighty Crimson Tide on to victory in the big game. Even dawgs have to admire the strength and skills of a well-coached team of scholar-athletes, especially since they see so little of that in Athens, bless their hearts.
Save that leftover New Year’s champagne to celebrate the Tide’s second straight BCS championship!
papadawg
January 5th, 2013
8:26 am
I’m curious how many of the so called BCS Bowls regret their team choices by not selecting the DAWGS. Especially the Sugar Bowl. Florida laid Gator Eggs in that one. I don’t like saban but Nortre Dame played pretty much nobody.
Buckeye
January 5th, 2013
8:33 am
We’re not there – ya, I know, Old news.
The dogs are not there!
HA!
Still cryin’ and a humpin’
Lee Barton
January 5th, 2013
8:36 am
Rudy was offsides.
RGP
January 5th, 2013
8:39 am
ND needs Johnny Manzel at QB to beat Bama. They don’t so they won’t.
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
January 5th, 2013
8:44 am
UGA has hired the defensive line coach from Miss State.
A person SMART enough to know.....
January 5th, 2013
9:02 am
Joe Montana doesn’t even know who Rudy is!
Smug
January 5th, 2013
9:24 am
Notre Dim ain’t played nobody. The only first rate team on their schedule was Stanford & they took them to OT before losing. Bama should roll them easily. All the northern, liberal press that loves the Irish can then go stick their heads back up their backsides.
hit a single
January 5th, 2013
9:24 am
Go with Bama because they can run the football and then hit you with the long deep pass. Very tough to defend.
steve
January 5th, 2013
9:57 am
Manziel is the best player in college football, no question after last night and his season performance. I just wish everyone (all media) would call him what he really is…. RED SHIRT freshman! I guess it just sounds better to say (20 year old) freshman.
stanh
January 5th, 2013
10:09 am
Notre Dame has never seen the likes of Bama….Watch for Bama’s offensive line and Lacey-yeley to eat em up
North Ave. Faithful
January 5th, 2013
10:16 am
Bama and ND had better be glad their not playing Johnny Football monday night.
Bruno
January 5th, 2013
10:18 am
There should be an over and under on how many times ND gets across the 50. Based on LSU game last year maybe put it at 1. Saban and Kirby with a month to prepare, forget it, go with the under!!!!
WayBack
January 5th, 2013
10:18 am
A score of 17-10 that involves Notre Dame in a bowl game? Doesn’t that chime a little memory
bell???
DAWGIE DOO DOO
January 5th, 2013
10:26 am
Why so much interest in some black dopes throwing a football around?
D man
January 5th, 2013
10:30 am
Bama will ROLLLLLLLL like a pack of elephants….
wooooo
January 5th, 2013
10:46 am
It amazes me to read how so many people expect a blowout. “They ain’t never seen a team like bama” I bet most of you haven’t even watched a single half of ND football.
There is a reason why most of America can’t stand the $ec and it’s not because you are the best football conference, everyone admits that.
It is because of the stupid, arrogant fans who for some reason feel the need to take the easy route and cheer for their conference over their actual team.
I have read comments from UGA fans for weeks cheering on Florida? Bama? LSU? Seriously? A Georgia fan is cheering for Florida?
You people watch your game and then cheer for UF. If they lose, you shut up, safely avoiding the ribbing that actual fan would have to endure. If they win then you latch on their victory like a parasite and somehow feel that your rival winning makes you look better. Here’s a newsflash, winning football games makes you look better.
I can’t stand ND but apparently they have an inferiority complex and don’t need a bunch of other teams winning to make them feel good about themselves.
At least their fans have earned some respect.
BBQ MAN
January 5th, 2013
11:15 am
Dawglasville SEC fans, for the most part, go around claiming no one can beat an sec team. that’s why it’s a big deal when they lose out of conference
wooooo
January 5th, 2013
11:33 am
God forbid that there is another team outside of the $EC that can actually play football. Then come the ridiculous excuses that “well, they couldn’t get excited since it wasn’t a national championship game.”
Oregon, Stanford, ND, Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, and other teams could compete and challenge for a title if they were in the $EC.
milco
January 5th, 2013
11:42 am
Alabama wins this game easy—mark it down. ND’s overrated and barely beat a mediocre Pitt team. Saban will be dominating the SEC for years–he may have 10 BCS titles before he leaves Alabama. Title #15 for alabama is coming monday night–bet the house.
larry's trailer
January 5th, 2013
12:18 pm
alabama will beat noter dame like a rented mule—book it. alabama may be even better next year.
FarTrain
January 5th, 2013
12:31 pm
Excuse me, Mr. MB, but didn’t Texas A&M beat Alabama? AND didn’t Texas A&M lose to Florida and LSU? Nothing is a sure thing, and I don’t think I would be making these bold, ridiculous statements! Another thing, what was FL doing sitting at #3? Shows how screwed up the BCS is after their loss to Louisville!
SawThat1nce
January 5th, 2013
12:47 pm
Alabama will defeat Notre Dame, just like Georgia would have beat N.D., IF, GA. had a head coach smart enough to spike the damn ball, and give them 2 or 3 plays to try and win the SEC Championship Game and advance to the national title game.
Would Nick Saban spike the ball in that situation?
What percentage of the top 100 coaches in the NCAA would have spiked the ball?
I would say 99%, if you include Mark Richt in the list of top 100 coaches.
Am I bitter? Yes.
Crying over spilled milk? I guess so.
I don’t care, he should have grounded the ball, and used the 2, of maybe even 3 plays to get the win.
Tide Rising
January 5th, 2013
1:00 pm
The key is turnovers and mistakes. Alabama had 3 turnovers vs Texas A&M and they were up 20-0 before you could blink an eye. They scored 9 pts from the 2nd qtr through the 4th qtr. Same with LSU. We only scored 21 but we fumbled the ball as we were about to put the game away down on LSU’s goal line. We had more turnovers and that kept LSU in the game. As for Georgia they got a 10 pt swing on one play(blocked fg for a td runback) and we threw an int at the goal line. That game was close but statistically it was a blowout.
Bottom line is the only chance ND has is if Bama committs a series of turnovers and definitely more turnovers than ND. That’s the only way Alabama can be beaten or even played close.
captguitarman
January 5th, 2013
1:05 pm
The Irish certainly have had their lucky moments, and not just good fortune in general, but very specific and unlikely events that won games, like both Pitt and Stanford both missing easy field goals that would have knocked the Irish from their perch. From the having good luck in general standpoint, USC’s starting quarterback was out that entire game with an injury.
Having said that, the SEC has not been a dominant force in the bowl season. It would be one thing if only Vanderbilt lost, but LSU and Florida lost too — with Florida not even bothering to show up for the game at all. And, as someone noted, Alabama barely escaped Georgia — but Georgia had a great team this year.
But, all things considered, it is hard to see how the luck of the Irish will prevail agains the hard reality it will be facing with Alabama, and it all goes back to Saban. Bama will show up for the game, and it will be completely and totally ready to play. Not always a given with guys like Richt or Muskamp at the helm. And, there will be no quirky, loose cannon, WTF, someone slap that guy in the face before he does it again, coaching moments with Saban, like with Miles, who ordered three incomplete pass plays in a row (his weakest hand), stopping the clock each time, and giving Clemson the ball back with just enough time to score. And, despite its good defense (Georgia had great defense too), when that running game juggernaut gets rolling with that offensive line and those two big horses Bama has in its backfield, Notre Dame will succumb, just like Georgia did.
Bama’s Geno Smith went the wrong way on UGA’s last play | Mark Bradley
January 5th, 2013
1:55 pm
[...] BCS background: History may favor the underdog Irish, but Alabama is too good. [...]
Stinger 2
January 5th, 2013
1:57 pm
SawThat1nce: Get over it man. It was a great game and a tough loss for UGA.
You have a coach that many other major schools would love to have. You had a very good season at 12-2. UGA will probably end up in the top 5 rankings on Tuesday morning.
This GT fan thinks that every UGA fan should be thankful for the program you have.
I am thankful for the ending to GT`s season as it played out. Not a good one but the team did not quit and came out better than most predicted after a 2-4 start.
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
January 5th, 2013
2:10 pm
#Stinger…Mark Richt is a fine person no doubt and a above average football coach but ends right there! If not at UGA Richt would be a 7-5 coach at best. No other schools have ever came after Mark and will not. The talent level of the high school players in Georgia is for the most part the reason for success. If Nick Saban were at UGA then you would use all the lumber at Home Depot trying to enlarge the trophy case. Instead you have a great big room with one dusty old trophy. Now the room beside the trophy room is where they keep all the banners for Next Year’s Best Team….now that room is full.
My-Guy
January 5th, 2013
11:46 pm
I honestly think Alabama will pull out the win against Notre Dame, but don’t expect the national championship to be a blowout like last year. Alabama beat Michigan by lots of points in the beginning of the season, while Notre Dame only beat them by a touchdown, but you never know what happens in football games. South Carolina BARELY beat an improved Michigan team! So when teams are the underdogs, they play lights out and a lot of teams in bowl games this year are angry at the SEC this year. Nebraska gave us a game, but we eventually pulled it out in the fourth quarter. Louisville was told that they’d never had a chance against Florida, but Florida got killed and embarrassed the SEC in the Sugar Bowl. Out of all the non-SEC teams in bowl games this year, Notre Dame will be the most motivated one out of all! Notre Dame will be FIRED up, ANGRY, and ready for Alabama. This year the SEC is in danger of the winning streak ending. I really hope Alabama doesn’t overlook Notre Dame… the National Championship this year will be a close game!
SawThat1nce
January 6th, 2013
10:52 am
Stinger 2……I don’t have to “get over it”, I have been a Richt supporter since he came to UGA, but I now have my doubts,
I think that someone else could do a better job.
I really would not mind if one of the “many other major schools” had him.
SawThat1nce
January 6th, 2013
10:54 am
I think that Alabama will demolish Notre Dame. That’s my opinion.
Bama-Notre Dame? A big game. Nick Saban? Even bigger | Mark Bradley
January 6th, 2013
12:11 pm
[...] Further reading: History may favor the underdog Irish, but Bama is too good. [...]
Speak Out: Notre Dame vs. Alabama—Who Will Win? | east cobb
January 7th, 2013
7:55 am
[...] Despite its number-two ranking, several prominent sportswriters are picking Alabama to win. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Bradley points out that since the BCS era began, no team has repeated as champ. While that historical fact favors the Irish, Bradley says reality backs up the favored Tide. [...]
Speak Out: Notre Dame vs. Alabama—Who Will Win? | Acworth
January 7th, 2013
12:41 pm
[...] Despite its number-two ranking, several prominent sportswriters are picking Alabama to win. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Bradley points out that since the BCS era began, no team has repeated as champ. While that historical fact favors the Irish, Bradley says reality backs up the favored Tide. [...]
Live from the BCS title game: The Irish have landed! | Mark Bradley
January 7th, 2013
6:50 pm
[...] as taking the Tide to win 17-10, but I’ve covered a few of these BCS title games and I know the favorite doesn’t always win. (Exhibit A: USC in January 2006; Exhibit B, Ohio State in the desert the next [...]