History may favor the underdog Irish, but Bama is too good
Precedent? This guy eats precedent for breakfast! (AP photo)
Fort Lauderdale – The history of the BCS title game isn’t exactly exhaustive, dating as it does to that long-ago time of January 1999, but even in that small sampling a commonality winds through. Since this “system” was implemented, no school has repeated as BCS champ.
On Monday night, Alabama is favored to annex a second consecutive national title (and a third in four seasons, and the 115th in Tide annals if we go by Bama’s ever-escalating count). The worst thing we can say about this Tide team is that it’s superb, but other superb defending champs have arrived at this juncture only to trip over the final hurdle.
Three times a program has sought to stack BCS titles end to end. Three times it has failed, and each failure came as a shock. Favored by 10 ½ points, Florida State was beaten 13-2 in January 2001 by Oklahoma – the Seminoles’ offense was overseen that night by a distracted Mark Richt, who had already taken a job in Athens – and that was the mildest example. The other two were seismic.
In January 2003, an unbeaten-yet-unassuming Ohio State met No. 1 Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. Almost half the Buckeyes’ victories had been so close that they became known as the Luckeyes, and sometimes it’s better to be lucky than … well, you know. Ohio State, an 11 ½-point underdog, took the Hurricanes to overtime and appeared to have lost when a fourth-down pass fell incomplete, but a late penalty flag brought new life and, in short order, a stunning national championship.
In January 2006, Texas arrived at the Rose Bowl as the designated victim of a team being hailed as the greatest ever. USC actually was going for a third national title, the 2003 version having been awarded by the Associated Press but not the BCS, and its 55-19 thrashing of Oklahoma in the January 2005 Orange Bowl was still fresh in everyone’s mind.
It was so fresh that, on the morning before the Rose Bowl, this correspondent asked Texas coach Mack Brown how it felt to have a team so good that was being given no chance. (The unbeaten Longhorns were a touchdown underdog.) Laughing sardonically, Brown thanked us media folks for providing that goad. Then his Longhorns, Vince Young chief among them, went out and won the greatest collegiate game ever played.
As for the here and now: Notre Dame is unbeaten, but seems the choice of nobody. It has won five games by seven or fewer points, which recalls the Luckeyes of 10 years ago. It is a 10-point underdog to a team ranked below it, which recalls the Oklahoma of 11 years back. It is a program of massive tradition that many view as out of its depth, which recalls the Texas of Vince Young.
Loading ...If you’re Brian Kelly, who coaches Notre Dame, you love these dynamics: To be No. 1 in the land and the school of Rockne and Ara and the Gipper to boot and still to be roundly expected to lose by a nice round number … that’s a better underdog story than “Rudy.” (Which was the tale of a Fighting Irish walk-on who sacked the Georgia Tech quarterback.)
The temptation is mighty to pick an Irish upset – this from someone who picked both Ohio State in 2003 and Texas in 2006 – but there’s an even greater deterrent. None of the defending champs who suffered BCS upsets were from the SEC, and the SEC has gotten so good at winning national championships that it would take a monumental performance by a transcendent player to derail this locomotive. As stout as Notre Dame is, there’s no Vince Young on its roster.
This Alabama team isn’t quite as imposing as the BCS titlists of 2011 and 2009, and its home loss to Texas A&M and its narrow escapes against LSU and Georgia offer cause for Irish hope. (And so, in an oblique manner, do the bowl losses suffered by Florida and LSU of the almighty SEC.) But A&M scored 29 points in beating the Tide, and Georgia would have needed 33.
Notre Dame has broken 30 in only four of its 12 games. It ranks 74th nationally in scoring offense. Its defense is match for Bama’s; its offense is not. The Tide, who rushed for 350 yards against Georgia, might not get half that against the Irish, but Alabama does find ways to score. (It has mustered 30 or more points in 11 of its 13 games, LSU and Texas A&M being the exceptions.)
It would not be surprising to see this championship game finish 17-10. It would, however, be surprising if Notre Dame had the 17. Precedent favors the underdog, but reality, as ever, favors Alabama.
By Mark Bradley
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247 comments Add your comment
stendek
January 4th, 2013
5:58 pm
Forget overall records! I am far more impressed with the Yellow Jacket finish against USC than the Dawg yawner over Nebraska. Well done! I am one who does not subscribe to the lunacy that the LOSS to Bama should be bronzed then put in a trophy case in Athens! To me a loss is a loss is a loss. Period!
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:59 pm
Oregon seemed to be charmed with those 3 or 4 no-calls on out of bounds hits on K-State last night. The refs must have gotten their Kellys mixed up.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
6:04 pm
When you’ve given up 68 and 70 points in games in the same season, one being the championship game against a team you beat earlier, Huskers fans were prepared to yawn as well.
NCDawg
January 4th, 2013
6:08 pm
Notre Dame struggled with USC which LOST to Ga Tech. Yes, Ga Tech of big offense and NO defense. Unless Notre Dame can suddenly throw the ball 2 or 3 X as well as they have they will have extreme trouble scoring on Bama. The question is whether Bama can score on ND’s defense. ND hasn’t seen any team that has the balance Bama has. And there is the kicker. If you play teams that have nearly one dimensional offenses, you will have some pretty good defensive numbers by the end of the year. Ask and Michigan player off the record who has the better D and I will bet the farm they say to a man that Bama D is the best they have ever faced. Ask them which team was harder to defend and they will say Bama universally.
ND has to have more than luck, they need a different offense and no amount of preparation can change their personnel. Golson is an ok QB… their receivers are pretty good, their backs run hard… that just doesn’t get it done against Bama.
Bama covers the spread and if ND scores more than a couple of TD’s I will be shocked.
JD Hater
January 4th, 2013
6:12 pm
Enter your comments here
JD Hater
January 4th, 2013
6:14 pm
Bradley has been doing the same thing since ND’s last national championship.
What a loser………………………………….
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
6:24 pm
“ND hasn’t seen any team that has the balance Bama has.”
I agree. Stanford was the closest, but they played Notre Dame before they benched Nunes and went with Hogan at QB. Michigan was too early in the season with Alabama and mid-season with Notre Dame, and Notre Dame was still experimenting with Golson and Rees when they played Michigan. That doesn’t change the perception, though; Alabama’s defense is excellent by this year’s standards. They can’t let down and let a team get up by 21, though.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
6:33 pm
By most pundits’ opinions, this Alabama team is not as strong as last year’s. Last year LSU held them to 1 TD in 2 games. However, since Notre Dame’s defense has been strongest on the compressed field near the end zone, Alabama can win this one with field goals.
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
January 4th, 2013
6:46 pm
Speaking of LSU their entire group on outstanding JR’s are taking it to the NFL!!! The Tigers will be in trouble in 2013. That UGA and LSU just tilted toward the Dawgs.
concern
January 4th, 2013
7:13 pm
Notre Dame NO MATCH for AL. Current and past National Championships rather meaningless until playoff of at least 10 teams. Case in point, this week several highly favorer team i.e. USC, LSU, UF, … lost in BCS games. Until the top teams play head to head in playoff, its a guess as to which of the teams is the best.
Who would have thought that Texas A&M could competed at the level they did in the SEC?
So lets do the play off right with a significant % of teams being involved. That is the way of the professionals (NFL, MLB, .NBA ..). with 25 to 30 % of their teams participating to determine the champion. Even College Football Divisions , other than D1 follow the Professionals example.
So lets eleminate the guess work and crown a meaningful champion. Other wise just take the SEC Champion as the National Champion.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
7:14 pm
Coach Johnson and I will be watching the game together in a hot tub!
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
7:25 pm
LSU ought to be okay on defense, which is less than really good. Scoring on a rebuilt Georgia defense will be the big problem they way I see it. Aren’t there any available QBs in the state of Texas? Do they all not like LSU?
Dawgie
January 4th, 2013
7:26 pm
Looks like all the Tech Nerds posing as Bama fans when the Dawgs played them are now stating the Bammers will lose. The hatred for your daddy sure runs deep in the state of GA doesn’t it Nerds?
F. Sinkwich
January 4th, 2013
7:27 pm
ND is getting lots of luv from all the national media. All in all, they hate the thought that the SEC is so much better than everyone else.
Tide rolls, big time.
I hate ‘em, but facts is facts…
Flat Tire doesnt live in Delusionalville Ga.
January 4th, 2013
7:39 pm
GT Bob
The SEC won the ACC championship this year; I guess you forgot that
Flat Tire doesnt live in Delusionalville Ga.
January 4th, 2013
7:39 pm
GT Bob
The SEC won the ACC championship this year; I guess you forgot that
Techster
January 4th, 2013
7:39 pm
Bama will win by 10 points.
Erk Russell's Dog
January 4th, 2013
7:57 pm
A&M and Oklahoma on FOX , Speaking of Fox ,Erin had her naughty librarian look going on the pre-game right down to the eye glasses.
Turfy Brooks
January 4th, 2013
8:17 pm
Mark
Lay off the crack pipe u Sec homer. Tech rocks
Woofy One
January 4th, 2013
8:21 pm
Golden Domers vs. Mobile Homers. I will take the mobile homers. Long live all of us in the redneck SEC. LOL
brandonlee49
January 4th, 2013
8:38 pm
who are we Kidding here, ND’s Toughest game of the year was against Unranked Pitt ??? !!! Where it took THREE Overtimes to beat this Pitt team, who otherwise had a very unassumming Schedule itself, almost Upset the Mighty Irish ??? !!! C’mon, gimme a Break there is No Balance of Comparative Scheduling with the BCS Rankings… Pitt ends up playing Ole Miss, a fith place finisher in the SEC, against a One Game-Schedule Pitt… similar to ND who only played two top 20 teams all year…. Oregon belongs at # 1, Bama #2, ND at no. 15.
DUCK NATION
January 4th, 2013
8:58 pm
Oregon would wax ether one these teams GO DUCKS
DUCK NATION
January 4th, 2013
9:01 pm
Don’t forget Stanford got screwed by ND by refs
Castle pines canine
January 4th, 2013
9:06 pm
As far as the SEC. Sec #2 beat Big10#2. Sec#3 beat bigten#3. Sec# 4 lost to BigEast #1. Sec# 5 lost toAcc#2 Sec#6 Leading Big12 #2. Sec#7beat Acc#4 Sec#8 lost to big 10 #4 Sec #9 plays later
So glad Tech won
Glad Dogs won
Muschamp proved why he is a coach in waiting
Miles proved that you don’t pass when you are trying to run out the clock,
He also proved that defense can win but that they can’t play 42 minutes of a 60 minute game
Dado proved that blind squirrels can indeed find acorns, and that winning the Peach Bowl is just like winning the MNC
So the question, how long til Clemson hits probation again?
Mark
January 4th, 2013
9:06 pm
I am so sick of hearing about the SEC and how superior they are to the rest of the country! Alabama had an easy schedule this year, not every SEC team is ready to join the NFL. MSU, kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss & Vandy are not powerhouses, LSU got outplayed & out-coached by an ACC team, Florida spanked by a Big East team that lost to Uconn and MSU crushed by a mediocre Big Ten team. Irish are undefeated & #1 and they will be on Tuesday as well! Roll Tears Roll!
Castle pines canine
January 4th, 2013
9:08 pm
Brandon Lee 49. Ole Miss is the 5th best inSec west
Castle pines canine
January 4th, 2013
9:08 pm
Brandon Lee 49. Ole Miss is the 5th best inSec west
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
9:09 pm
Maybe, but Stanford is still going to end up in the top 5, even though the other loss was to Washington.
A person SMART enough to know.....
January 4th, 2013
9:23 pm
Bama will Lose by 3+
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
9:23 pm
The B1G #1 was unranked, so that kind of muddles things as to who B1G #2 and #2 really were. Northwestern had to be in there somewhere.
Dawg Fan
January 4th, 2013
9:30 pm
GTBoob=Earnest T Bass
Sopwith Camel
January 4th, 2013
9:30 pm
Mark, I’m not read or heard any sports writers speak to the issue of who they think would have been playing in the championship game if Ohio State had been eligible to play. Given each team’s record, do you think it would have been Ohio State and Notre Dame in the championship since Alabama has one loss? Or given the opponents played, do you think it would still be Notre Dame vs. Alabama? Or would it possibly have been Ohio State vs. Alabama? Curious as to your thoughts.
Castle pines canine
January 4th, 2013
9:34 pm
Good one Dawg Fan
James
January 4th, 2013
9:35 pm
There will be a lot of disappointed people here when the Fighting Irish win this game…..
Dawg Fan
January 4th, 2013
9:35 pm
Notre Dame only won all its games cause Pittsburgh can’t kick a gimme field goal,refs missed the Stanford score, and USC had no QB. Luck was on their side but the luck has run out now. SEC dominates!
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
9:36 pm
Then the coaches and computers said that Florida was #3 in the nation (the media had them #4), and they will be feeling the welts from the Louisville sluggers for a few months.
I say, what the heck, the actual game is on Monday, meaningful or not. If ND loses, the AP may vote them #1 as the only undefeated team left standing.
I have a feeling that the 4 team playoff is going to be unsatisfactory.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
9:38 pm
Error! “AP may vote them #1″. Ohio State, that is.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
9:40 pm
Maybe Schultz’s dog should be on the playoff expert brain trust committee to choose the 4 teams.
Castle pines canine
January 4th, 2013
9:46 pm
Manziel looks like Buck Belue before he broke.his leg
Castle pines canine
January 4th, 2013
9:57 pm
How about every coach gets a weighted vote. Weighted like this. A point for every win minus every loss. So MarkRicht would have weight of 9 after the sec champ game. He would cast a top 9 #1 gets 9 votes on down to # 9 which gets 1. After all the coaches have voted, the top 4 go to the playoff
wth
January 4th, 2013
10:10 pm
2 Bama players sent home for curfew violations…one of them is Dillon Lee..
72 Dawg
January 4th, 2013
10:12 pm
By a dawg that has no love for Alabama (roll OVER bama)…Alabama will beat Notre Dame by at least three touchdowns! Not even close.
72 Dawg
January 4th, 2013
10:12 pm
By a dawg that has no love for Alabama (roll OVER bama)…Alabama will beat Notre Dame by at least three touchdowns! Not even close.
Paul in NH
January 4th, 2013
10:49 pm
“Sec #2 beat Big10#2. Sec#3 beat bigten#3. Sec# 4 lost to BigEast #1. Sec# 5 lost toAcc#2 Sec#6 Leading Big12 #2. Sec#7beat Acc#4 Sec#8 lost to big 10 #4″
The best team in the Big10 is sitting it out this year and the #4 team is sitting out the next 4 bowl years. NCSU was worse than 2 ACC teams that sat out the bowls.
SEC #2 beat Big10 #3, SEC #3 beat Big10 #4, SEC #8 lost to Big10 #6, SEC #7 beat ACC #7
SEC Fact Finder
January 4th, 2013
10:49 pm
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
12:19 pm
Quick rundown of points scored by Notre Dame’s opponents:
10 – Navy
17 – Purdue
3 – Mich. St.
6 – Michigan
3 – Miami
13 – Stanford (OT)
14 – BYU
13 – Oklahoma
26 – Pitt (3OT)
6 – BostonCollege
0 – Wake Forest
13 – USC
_______________________________________________
Delbert, Hope you are doing well, kept away from the blogs during the season due to my association with the league during the season.
I look at your list and see teams like Oklahoma who do not have a power running game and run a spread offense, the same for Michigan. The teams that run the ball hard and hit you with controlled passes are the teams Notre Dame has problems with.
I just have a hard time visualizing Notre Dame stopping Alabama at any level while Alabama is on offense, and wearing down due to lack of depth. This year the best teams were in the SEC and teams like Oregon are shown not to be able to match up with ball control defensive teams.
Have a Great Year!
Roll Tide and Go SEC!
Paul in NH
January 4th, 2013
10:51 pm
I just remembered why Bob Stoops nickname is “Big Game Bob”
01HAWK
January 4th, 2013
10:56 pm
I guess Dillon got lonely for his Brother. What a shame when your Parents were going to be at the game and now you do a bone headed curfew violation.
Oh well, he was noit going to play anyways.
Freshmen linebackers Dillon Lee and Ryan Anderson have been sent home from BCS national championship preparations for violation of team rules, a source has confirmed.
Alabama coach Nick Saban issued a brief statement.
“We sent two players home due to a curfew violation,” Saban said in the statement.
01HAWK
January 4th, 2013
10:58 pm
How did TX A&M lose 2 games this year ?
rudy
January 4th, 2013
11:26 pm
I think given the fact that this Bama team has been in this situation 2 out of the past three years, and the fact that Saban has had over a month to plan, and the fact that Barrett Jones and Bell are healthy again, The Tide will win this game. Now by how much, who knows. I’m predicting a somewhat low scoring game. 24-14, 27-17, something like that. Bama will win this game. ND has had an outstanding season, but their mojo will end against the top rated defense in the country.
SEC Fact Finder
January 4th, 2013
11:30 pm
01 Hawk,
According to many around the A&M program, the losses were early in the year when Manziel had not fully gotten the play book in his grasp and his OC ( now HC at TT) kept him from audibles and making plays to avoid him getting hurt and making mistakes. They are ten times better in November and December. If they were not losing so much on their OL they would be a top 5 team in 2013, they will still be a top 10 team in my humble opinion