History may favor the underdog Irish, but Bama is too good
Precedent? This guy eats precedent for breakfast! (AP photo)
Fort Lauderdale – The history of the BCS title game isn’t exactly exhaustive, dating as it does to that long-ago time of January 1999, but even in that small sampling a commonality winds through. Since this “system” was implemented, no school has repeated as BCS champ.
On Monday night, Alabama is favored to annex a second consecutive national title (and a third in four seasons, and the 115th in Tide annals if we go by Bama’s ever-escalating count). The worst thing we can say about this Tide team is that it’s superb, but other superb defending champs have arrived at this juncture only to trip over the final hurdle.
Three times a program has sought to stack BCS titles end to end. Three times it has failed, and each failure came as a shock. Favored by 10 ½ points, Florida State was beaten 13-2 in January 2001 by Oklahoma – the Seminoles’ offense was overseen that night by a distracted Mark Richt, who had already taken a job in Athens – and that was the mildest example. The other two were seismic.
In January 2003, an unbeaten-yet-unassuming Ohio State met No. 1 Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. Almost half the Buckeyes’ victories had been so close that they became known as the Luckeyes, and sometimes it’s better to be lucky than … well, you know. Ohio State, an 11 ½-point underdog, took the Hurricanes to overtime and appeared to have lost when a fourth-down pass fell incomplete, but a late penalty flag brought new life and, in short order, a stunning national championship.
In January 2006, Texas arrived at the Rose Bowl as the designated victim of a team being hailed as the greatest ever. USC actually was going for a third national title, the 2003 version having been awarded by the Associated Press but not the BCS, and its 55-19 thrashing of Oklahoma in the January 2005 Orange Bowl was still fresh in everyone’s mind.
It was so fresh that, on the morning before the Rose Bowl, this correspondent asked Texas coach Mack Brown how it felt to have a team so good that was being given no chance. (The unbeaten Longhorns were a touchdown underdog.) Laughing sardonically, Brown thanked us media folks for providing that goad. Then his Longhorns, Vince Young chief among them, went out and won the greatest collegiate game ever played.
As for the here and now: Notre Dame is unbeaten, but seems the choice of nobody. It has won five games by seven or fewer points, which recalls the Luckeyes of 10 years ago. It is a 10-point underdog to a team ranked below it, which recalls the Oklahoma of 11 years back. It is a program of massive tradition that many view as out of its depth, which recalls the Texas of Vince Young.
Loading ...If you’re Brian Kelly, who coaches Notre Dame, you love these dynamics: To be No. 1 in the land and the school of Rockne and Ara and the Gipper to boot and still to be roundly expected to lose by a nice round number … that’s a better underdog story than “Rudy.” (Which was the tale of a Fighting Irish walk-on who sacked the Georgia Tech quarterback.)
The temptation is mighty to pick an Irish upset – this from someone who picked both Ohio State in 2003 and Texas in 2006 – but there’s an even greater deterrent. None of the defending champs who suffered BCS upsets were from the SEC, and the SEC has gotten so good at winning national championships that it would take a monumental performance by a transcendent player to derail this locomotive. As stout as Notre Dame is, there’s no Vince Young on its roster.
This Alabama team isn’t quite as imposing as the BCS titlists of 2011 and 2009, and its home loss to Texas A&M and its narrow escapes against LSU and Georgia offer cause for Irish hope. (And so, in an oblique manner, do the bowl losses suffered by Florida and LSU of the almighty SEC.) But A&M scored 29 points in beating the Tide, and Georgia would have needed 33.
Notre Dame has broken 30 in only four of its 12 games. It ranks 74th nationally in scoring offense. Its defense is match for Bama’s; its offense is not. The Tide, who rushed for 350 yards against Georgia, might not get half that against the Irish, but Alabama does find ways to score. (It has mustered 30 or more points in 11 of its 13 games, LSU and Texas A&M being the exceptions.)
It would not be surprising to see this championship game finish 17-10. It would, however, be surprising if Notre Dame had the 17. Precedent favors the underdog, but reality, as ever, favors Alabama.
By Mark Bradley
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247 comments Add your comment
Thuga
January 4th, 2013
3:03 pm
Poor little bullpup fans. Get all the way to the top just to roll down again. It’s over for you as you won’t get another Tech like schedule next year and some of your horses will be playing in greener pastures. All you have is a fantastic WL record but that doesn’t look so great in a trophy case. Keep trying while everybody that was down catches back up in the SEC. Oh yeah, We Run This State, but not the adjoining states! I guess that Governors Cup should be renamed the CMR/Bobo Cup.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
3:04 pm
I have to go with Saban as well. I don’t think that there is any coach who is meticulous in all facets of preparation as him.
JB
January 4th, 2013
3:05 pm
Tide Roll is the ole Techie ” St. Simon” who use to torment Dawgs on here. He had to go another direction with the failures of Coach Johnson.
Paul in NH
January 4th, 2013
3:07 pm
dawgfan
January 4th, 2013
1:27 pm
They are a fraud because they have played no one other than some rust belt patsies and media darling Oklahoma
——
Who knew that Stanford was a “rust belt patsy”?
The Cardinal is so bad that they are going to end up Top 5 in the final poll.
JB
January 4th, 2013
3:07 pm
See 3:03 for an example. A Techie.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
3:10 pm
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/strength-of-schedule-by-team
Sorry, but take a look at that list. Alabama 3rd toughest? Oregon tougher schedule than Stanford? Wisconsin tougher schedule than Ole Miss? But hey, at least GT is 22nd and played a tougher schedule than Notre Dame somehow.
JB
January 4th, 2013
3:14 pm
Bob, Tech’s got a nice group coming back with a real dual threat at QB. All BS aside, what’a thinking for next year for the Jackets.
Paul in NH
January 4th, 2013
3:15 pm
The team rankings site specifically says that the strength of schedule is just based on games between FBS teams. ND didn’t play a single FCS team – Alabama played Western Carolina
dwagdawg
January 4th, 2013
3:16 pm
So, JB, anyone who says anything negative about uga is a Tech fan? Are you really so stupid that you don’t realize that fans all around the Southeast hate you dwags because of morons like dawgfan who are hell-bent on earning the nickname Cesspool of the South? You really should loosen your tin foil hat, it’s cutting off circulation to your pea-sized brain.
JB
January 4th, 2013
3:18 pm
Nice post dwagdawg……Piss yellow nerd that you are…….Let me go cower and sulk.
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
January 4th, 2013
3:30 pm
It will be interesting to see if PJ expands on the Pistol zone read spread and less of the Bone. He has to explain to recruits the direction and if so the guys will come be apart of the spread. JMO of course.
I am not into the SEC this and that for each member needs to carry their own bags. If we have good results then fine for I will pull for all the teams in the South. The teams from the West and the North can go Clint…GFY.
headley lam
January 4th, 2013
3:37 pm
But hey, at least GT is 22nd and played a tougher schedule than Notre Dame somehow.
That should tell you how fraudulent those rankings are right there.
And I love that since the SEC has lost a couple of bowl games ( Florida didn’t bother to show up ) everyone is down on the SEC all of a sudden.
People have real short memories. The SEC is the best conference and its not really close.
5 yards short
January 4th, 2013
3:44 pm
Notre Dame will expose the SEC as a fraud as already has Louisville and Clemson. UGA struggled with a horrible Nebraska team and South Carolina with Michigan. The Big East is owning the Sugar …First WV over Georgia and now Louisville over the Gators.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
3:45 pm
Wet Willie – It’s interesting that a redshirt freshman can run the highly productive Oregon offense with its 200 plays, whereas the Georgia Tech offense seems to require more experience for its much more limited set of plays. If Tech intends to run more Pistol with zone reads, maybe that will change the requirements.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
3:46 pm
Bob, Tech’s got a nice group coming back with a real dual threat at QB. All BS aside, what’a thinking for next year for the Jackets.
I see somewhere between 8-5 and 10-3. 7 wins or less would be a let down. I think the offense will actually be better than this year. With Vad getting all of the snaps with the first team, and a lot more practice, I think he will cut down on turnovers a lot. He should be pretty dynamic at QB. On defense, im not sure what to expect. We have some promising recruits that will finally play and we will have a new defensive coordinator. There is reason for optimism but its the real unknown of our team for next year.
Hamad Meander
January 4th, 2013
3:46 pm
It’s nice to compare points scored against both defenses, but why not couple that with offense points scored? It appears ‘Bama has averaged about 38.46 points a game vs. 26.75 for Notre Dame. That’s a huge difference in offense considering also ‘Bama played 4 top 20 defenses.
I’m picking Alabama, though Notre Dame has been able to do some crazy things this year.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
3:48 pm
People have real short memories. The SEC is the best conference and its not really close.
If a #3 SEC team that only lost 1 game in the SEC can get dominated by a barely ranked Big East team then its pretty close.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
3:49 pm
Frauds and conspiracies seem to be the hot topics today. I prefer discussing football.
GeoffDawg
January 4th, 2013
3:52 pm
GTBob, for a hypothetical game, no one’s betting yet. It’s not amazing that went over your head.
Taggert
January 4th, 2013
3:54 pm
“People have real short memories. The SEC is the best conference and its not really close.”
It’s not short memories, everyone knows most SEC teams are football mills for the NFL. You could call them NFL lite.
The new name change is much better headley, just add an “e” after “lam”.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
4:04 pm
Alabama has Lacy, Yeldon and McCarron. I think the rest of the two offenses are comparable, except that Notre Dame may have an edge at TE with Eifert.
HamptonDawg
January 4th, 2013
4:13 pm
I’m no Bama fan but I’ve watched both teams this year and while neither offense is very impressive I think ND will have to get lucky to beat them. The Irish are typically awash in luck but you just don’t see Saban coached teams give games away. I think the battle with the Dawgs was perfect preparation for Bama and I’m pretty confident they will steamroll the overrated ND defense.
Aldo Raine
January 4th, 2013
4:16 pm
I wouldn’t call 2 Big East wins “owning” the Sugar Bowl?
Gator Mike
January 4th, 2013
4:17 pm
Guys, my Gators lost because they stunk up the Super Dome, and they did not show up to play. They were classless and undisciplided plus our QB continues to be very average. Plus Muschamp and his staff did not have the team ready. L’ville showed up to play, and they were well coached.
Charlie Strong did a great job, and he will be a coach of an SEC team in the near future.
I hope Bama shows up because if they do not they will look as bad as my Gators.
Well done by the Dawgs in beating the Huskers and SCe in slipping by Michigan. Dawgs looked great while the gamechickens got lucky – but they hung in there.
Happy New Year to all
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
4:17 pm
I’m no Bama fan but I’ve watched both teams this year and while neither offense is very impressive I think ND will have to get lucky to beat them.
Would you say that Texas A&M got lucky?
dawgfan
January 4th, 2013
4:30 pm
“Would you say that Texas A&M got lucky?”
Would you say Notre Dame has a freaking Heisman winner playing quarterback? LOL @ GTBob.
I digress. Another reason Bama wins this game: The SEC Championship game. Look it up. Teams with long lay offs before the BCS title game do not fare well. Notre Dame has not played a football game since November 24th. While Notre Dame was sitting on the coach munching on cheetos Bama was slugging it out in the Dome against UGA in a classic football game. Saban probably chewed their butts out over several things that happened in the UGA game. Who do you think is going to have more of an edge? Who do you think will be better prepared and more focused? My vote goes with Bama.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
4:38 pm
A summary of Alabama’s offensive production in their 3 tough games (decided by 4, 5, and 4 points):
McCarron
14/27 135 Yds 1 TD 1 INT 1 Sack – LSU
23/31 253 Yds 2 TD 1 INT 2 Sacks – Texas A&M
13/21 162 Yds 1 TD 1 INT 3 Sacks – Georgia
Lacy/Yeldon
22/169 Yds 1 TD – LSU
26/125 Yds 2 TD – Texas A&M
45/334 Yds 3 TD – Georgia
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
January 4th, 2013
4:42 pm
Delbert…I would like to see GT get back into the hunt. These kids today want to be in Sportscenter and the Bone will not get there. GT needs some excitement to get the ball rolling. It appears all my smart and rich GT fans/grads just as soon live with 7-5 teams instead of spending money send PJ packing. I can respect that. This situation only makes it easy for Richt to continue to have success at UGA because he has no competition from GT for recruits. Nick takes a few and Auburn makes a living out of Georgia players. If GT could take the recruits Auburn gets then Auburn would be much worse than they are today. Richt gets a free ride no doubt and that is the only reason he has survived this long.
Note…Bama has a 27 year old former major league BB player enrolled to play safety. LOL The guy had offers from most everyone and selected Stanford but took the baseball money instead. I can hear Nick now trying to coach this guy in the spring…”Sir, you have to get that head turned to the ball”
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
4:44 pm
Would you say Notre Dame has a freaking Heisman winner playing quarterback? LOL @ GTBob.
No, but they have the Heisman runner up on defense. Florida, LSU, and Louisiana Tech all gave Texas A&M a tougher game than Alabama did on their home field.
Paul in NH
January 4th, 2013
4:47 pm
“Another reason Bama wins this game: The SEC Championship game. Look it up. Teams with long lay offs before the BCS title game do not fare well.”
Let me see, in 2011 LSU played in the SEC championship game and Bama didn’t.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
4:54 pm
These kids today want to be in Sportscenter and the Bone will not get there.
Yeah, GT was much better when we were trying to be a pro style team.
Rogeriter
January 4th, 2013
4:57 pm
I never thought I’d ever agree with GTBob, but Alabama and the SEC is not an automatic. If I HAD to wager, as a Dawgs fan, I’d take Bama. But I heard many people say Georgia did not stand a chance…but they almost pulled it off. But that Almost means nothing. But I would not count ND out of this.
CFBFan
January 4th, 2013
4:58 pm
Re: DwagDawg: “So, JB, anyone who says anything negative about uga is a Tech fan? Are you really so stupid that you don’t realize that fans all around the Southeast hate you dwags because of morons like dawgfan who are hell-bent on earning the nickname Cesspool of the South? You really should loosen your tin foil hat, it’s cutting off circulation to your pea-sized brain.”
I will bet anyone any amount of money that no one other than a GT fan has ever used the terms “dwag” and “cesspool of the south” when referring to a UGA fan or Athens, GA. Using that terminology reveals your identity, and the “yellow”-eyed envy is palpable. It’s not healthy to hate others because you made bad life choices. You shouldn’t equate every UGA fan with the guys who stuffed you into a locker in high school. Let it go… for your own sake.
dwagdawg
January 4th, 2013
5:02 pm
Once again the inimitable dwagfan makes a complete jackass of himself. Priceless. Good thing he’s been following college football for 20 years, huh?
RT
January 4th, 2013
5:03 pm
Forget trying to reason with Bob he is as subjective as they come. I do think this will be a hard fought contest and don’t forget the Irish have had a long time to prepare. Good coaches can always come up with good game plans when given that much time. Trying to compare losses and wins from other teams and then trying to project that to other games rarely works. Each week is different and teams have different strengths and weaknesses that can be unique to their opponent to be played. That’s why they play the game.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:04 pm
Interesting point about Manti Te’o. Alabama may not run many crossing routes across the middle. In addition to his 7 interceptions, he led the team in passes defended and tied for 2nd in breakups. From the games I watched, he doesn’t crowd the line at ILB, he plays back. As the running play develops, he smashes the hole.
Paul in NH
January 4th, 2013
5:05 pm
CFBFan
January 4th, 2013
4:58 pm
‘I will bet anyone any amount of money that no one other than a GT fan has ever used the terms “dwag” and “cesspool of the south” when referring to a UGA fan or Athens, GA”
——
How much are you willing to lose? I don’t think this video was posted by a GT fan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bI9i4IqeOcY
dwagdawg
January 4th, 2013
5:12 pm
CFBFan, I don’t think this is a Tech site either…….
http://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/p/30893609/Go-Dwags.aspx
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:30 pm
Some other info on Notre Dame.
Last year, Cierre Wood rushed for over 1,100 yards. Theo Riddick and George Atkinson III combined for 90 yards.
Riddick caught 35 passes this year; Wood and Atkinson only 4 each.
This year, although Wood missed 2 games, Riddick rushed for 880, Wood 758 and Atkinson 361. They scored 5, 4 and 5 TDs respectively.
Another factor is Golson. Last year, Notre Dame’s 3 quarterbacks (Golson did not play in 2011) rushed for minus yardage. This year, Golson rushed for 305 and 5 TDs.
If the situation demands it, Tommy Rees will replace Golson. He contributed in a couple of big situations earlier this year in the red zone, and he was the starter in 2010 and 2011. Kelly won’t hesitate to use him. Rees passed for over 2.800 yards with 20 TDs and 65.5% in 2011.
stendek
January 4th, 2013
5:40 pm
So moderate it Mark. Nothing amiss here…
stendek
January 4th, 2013
5:40 pm
Which words do you find offensive now? Please explain.
stendek
January 4th, 2013
5:43 pm
Hi Mark. Belated Happy New Year friend. So the heavily favored Dawgs utilized two late scores to defeat a weak Nebraska team. Am I impressed? No! I just thank my lucky stars it is Bama not the chokers of Saint Mark Richt playing the overrated Irish. I cannot bear the thought of UGA ending the SEC national title streak. In my heart I KNOW they would have! Just as I know the Crimson Tide will send those pretenders back to South Bend utterly defeated. Thank God MOST SEC teams possess pride! No tough Erk R and Vince D men in Athens! Wish Aaron “Pick Six” Murray well in Canadian Football League. Hope he has nice career. Yellow Jackets crushed my most hated college football squad. Thanks fellows! As for Dawgs? Once in a lifetime opportunities are just that! Peace.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:45 pm
“I wouldn’t call 2 Big East wins “owning” the Sugar Bowl?”
Michigan “rented” it from the BCS last year, beating Virginia Tech in OT. Can’t trust the selection committees anymore. 2014 can’t get here soon enough.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:50 pm
stendek – One of my earlier posts didn’t get through. I guess “Saban’s meticulous preparation” freaked out the censorbot.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:51 pm
Testing testing. Meticulous
After further review
January 4th, 2013
5:52 pm
On paper Bama has the edge, but they dcon’t play the ggame on paper. I beleive it will be a closer game than many think, and an Irish win would not surprise me.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:52 pm
stendeck – one of mine got blocked because I used the word m-e-t-i-c-u-l-o-u-s in a sentence about Saban.
Escaped from Email Purgatorh
January 4th, 2013
5:53 pm
As Jimmy Johnston (then the University of Miami coach) often said – “If you play Notre Dame at South Bend, NEVER let the outcome of the game come down to a decision by the ref.”
Not a direct quote, but the sentiment is on point.
Is this ND’s one chance at national relevance for a generation of Irish faithful?
Clearly, the college football nation has SEC fatigue. Refs prove time and time again they are susceptible to the same blatant subjectivity we fans flaunt.
Will Notre Dame’s goal line suddenly become elastic again? Will incidental contact between an Alabama DB and a ND WR at a critical juncture of a close game be deemed interference?
Alabama ain’t Stanford. Alabama aint’ Pitt. But refs are human and I wonder if they can suppress any urges they might have to give Irish glory a helping hand.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
5:53 pm
Nefarious. Just testing
stendek
January 4th, 2013
5:58 pm
Forget overall records! I am far more impressed with the Yellow Jacket finish against USC than the Dawg yawner over Nebraska. Well done! I am one who does not subscribe to the lunacy that the LOSS to Bama should be bronzed then put in a trophy case in Athens! To me a loss is a loss is a loss. Period!