History may favor the underdog Irish, but Bama is too good
Precedent? This guy eats precedent for breakfast! (AP photo)
Fort Lauderdale – The history of the BCS title game isn’t exactly exhaustive, dating as it does to that long-ago time of January 1999, but even in that small sampling a commonality winds through. Since this “system” was implemented, no school has repeated as BCS champ.
On Monday night, Alabama is favored to annex a second consecutive national title (and a third in four seasons, and the 115th in Tide annals if we go by Bama’s ever-escalating count). The worst thing we can say about this Tide team is that it’s superb, but other superb defending champs have arrived at this juncture only to trip over the final hurdle.
Three times a program has sought to stack BCS titles end to end. Three times it has failed, and each failure came as a shock. Favored by 10 ½ points, Florida State was beaten 13-2 in January 2001 by Oklahoma – the Seminoles’ offense was overseen that night by a distracted Mark Richt, who had already taken a job in Athens – and that was the mildest example. The other two were seismic.
In January 2003, an unbeaten-yet-unassuming Ohio State met No. 1 Miami in the Fiesta Bowl. Almost half the Buckeyes’ victories had been so close that they became known as the Luckeyes, and sometimes it’s better to be lucky than … well, you know. Ohio State, an 11 ½-point underdog, took the Hurricanes to overtime and appeared to have lost when a fourth-down pass fell incomplete, but a late penalty flag brought new life and, in short order, a stunning national championship.
In January 2006, Texas arrived at the Rose Bowl as the designated victim of a team being hailed as the greatest ever. USC actually was going for a third national title, the 2003 version having been awarded by the Associated Press but not the BCS, and its 55-19 thrashing of Oklahoma in the January 2005 Orange Bowl was still fresh in everyone’s mind.
It was so fresh that, on the morning before the Rose Bowl, this correspondent asked Texas coach Mack Brown how it felt to have a team so good that was being given no chance. (The unbeaten Longhorns were a touchdown underdog.) Laughing sardonically, Brown thanked us media folks for providing that goad. Then his Longhorns, Vince Young chief among them, went out and won the greatest collegiate game ever played.
As for the here and now: Notre Dame is unbeaten, but seems the choice of nobody. It has won five games by seven or fewer points, which recalls the Luckeyes of 10 years ago. It is a 10-point underdog to a team ranked below it, which recalls the Oklahoma of 11 years back. It is a program of massive tradition that many view as out of its depth, which recalls the Texas of Vince Young.
Loading ...If you’re Brian Kelly, who coaches Notre Dame, you love these dynamics: To be No. 1 in the land and the school of Rockne and Ara and the Gipper to boot and still to be roundly expected to lose by a nice round number … that’s a better underdog story than “Rudy.” (Which was the tale of a Fighting Irish walk-on who sacked the Georgia Tech quarterback.)
The temptation is mighty to pick an Irish upset – this from someone who picked both Ohio State in 2003 and Texas in 2006 – but there’s an even greater deterrent. None of the defending champs who suffered BCS upsets were from the SEC, and the SEC has gotten so good at winning national championships that it would take a monumental performance by a transcendent player to derail this locomotive. As stout as Notre Dame is, there’s no Vince Young on its roster.
This Alabama team isn’t quite as imposing as the BCS titlists of 2011 and 2009, and its home loss to Texas A&M and its narrow escapes against LSU and Georgia offer cause for Irish hope. (And so, in an oblique manner, do the bowl losses suffered by Florida and LSU of the almighty SEC.) But A&M scored 29 points in beating the Tide, and Georgia would have needed 33.
Notre Dame has broken 30 in only four of its 12 games. It ranks 74th nationally in scoring offense. Its defense is match for Bama’s; its offense is not. The Tide, who rushed for 350 yards against Georgia, might not get half that against the Irish, but Alabama does find ways to score. (It has mustered 30 or more points in 11 of its 13 games, LSU and Texas A&M being the exceptions.)
It would not be surprising to see this championship game finish 17-10. It would, however, be surprising if Notre Dame had the 17. Precedent favors the underdog, but reality, as ever, favors Alabama.
By Mark Bradley
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247 comments Add your comment
UGABob
January 4th, 2013
1:00 pm
It’s amazing that people still try to respond to GTBob. It’s amazing that GTBob still thinks he knows everything. It’s amazing that GTBob still has no life. Hope to see GTBob on here after Bama wins by 17 + points.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
1:02 pm
The AP poll will likely not agree with the Coaches’ poll. Ohio State might be voted #2 (or #3) by the AP. The Coaches are required to vote the BCS final game winner #1, but at this point I can’t see the reasoning for them to not include Ohio State in the final poll.
catlady
January 4th, 2013
1:06 pm
I think Bama will win. I also predict that the announcers will do all but hail the Second Coming from the ND squad.
You missed one factor. Mark
January 4th, 2013
1:09 pm
Brian Kelley is in his htird year coachin the Irish.l
kimmer
January 4th, 2013
1:13 pm
Common opponents: Michigan. Bama @ neutral site wins 41-14 ND wins at home 13-6.
ND might have played more bowl eligible teams but so what? That includes the likes of 6 wins Purdue and Pitt (which incidentally required 3 OT to beat). Bama beat two teams in the top 5. ND didn’t even play anybody in the top 5. Most of bama’s players have been here before. Many of them twice. Not a bama fan and anything can happen but the bama certainly warrants being a heavy favorite.
dawgfan
January 4th, 2013
1:13 pm
Oregon v. Bama would have been a great game (that I probably would pick Oregon to win). This game not so much. Notre Dame, as usual, is a fraud and it will show. They might not score a point in this game.
Thanks.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
1:13 pm
@ GTBob… but when Vegas sets the original line that is a strong indication of the experts expectations for the outcome of the game.
That’s only part of the equation. Even if every odds maker in Vegas was certain that Notre Dame would win they still would not have Notre Dame favored. There are many other things taken into consideration and if you think the people who set the odds are football experts then you should do a little more research. The entire purpose of setting odds is to even out the betting as much as possible. It has nothing to do with personal predictions of the real outcome.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
1:17 pm
“Notre Dame, as usual, is a fraud…”
The 12-0 record was attained by fraudulent means?
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
1:19 pm
Bama beat two teams in the top 5. ND didn’t even play anybody in the top 5.
Can we stop with this top 5 crap? Florida was supposedly a top 5 team and Louisville destroyed them.
UGABob
January 4th, 2013
1:26 pm
Remember everyone, GTBob is always right and you are always wrong! He is the president of the NCAA and knows everything!
dawgfan
January 4th, 2013
1:27 pm
“The 12-0 record was attained by fraudulent means?”
I didn’t mean that literally Captain Clueless. I’ll leave the baseless accusations of cheating and impropriety to you Techies. Its the only thing you’re good at.
They are a fraud because they have played no one other than some rust belt patsies and media darling Oklahoma. Let’s see them play some big boy football and then I’ll be a believer. Capice?
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
1:27 pm
Hope to see GTBob on here after Bama wins by 17 + points.
If Bama wins by 100 ill be on here. Im not even saying that Bama won’t win, I just think the whole notion that any non SEC team has no chance of beating an SEC team is quite possibly the stupidest thing I have ever read. Especially in this bowl season.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
1:32 pm
“I didn’t mean that literally Captain Clueless. I’ll leave the baseless accusations of cheating and impropriety to you Techies. Its the only thing you’re good at.”
Did I somehow insult you? What baseless accusations of cheating and impropriety have I put forth?
Double Standard?
January 4th, 2013
1:32 pm
Funny how you pups fans are tearing Bama’s and ND’s schedule apart.
The Pups played a non-conference slate of Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, and Georgia Tech.
Your mighty conference slate was full of teams with losing records (several of them firing coaches at end of year). Your best conference win is viewed more like Florida handed it to you than you earning it. Yes, you played Bama close, but you still lost.
Why don’t you look in the mirror first before you instantly start calling other teams frauds and fakes. And some of you get so offended when you can’t figure out why the UGA program is looked upon nationally as it is…
dawgfan
January 4th, 2013
1:33 pm
“I just think the whole notion that any non SEC team has no chance of beating an SEC team is quite possibly the stupidest thing I have ever read.”
I think its pretty stupid too. Good thing I have never heard that come out of anyone’s mouth a single solitary time. It is something that you have dreamed up in your insecure little head. When someone says “the SEC is the best conference” you haters instead hear “no one will ever beat an SEC team in a million years.” No one has ever said anything of the sort. You simply made it up to fit your narrative. Its like when a UGA fans says “our O-line should be pretty good next year” you Tech fans hear “we will win the next 10 national titles in a row.” It is simply delusional. You have voices in your heads.
Tech fans sure do seem to have a lot invested in this game. Sorry guys. 42-10 still stands. It isn’t going anywhere. The SEC could have went a big 0-fer in bowl games this year and that score would still be there. Sucks for you.
Thanks.
dawgfan
January 4th, 2013
1:36 pm
“Did I somehow insult you? What baseless accusations of cheating and impropriety have I put forth?”
Good grief were you born in a barn son? I didn’t say you put forth baseless accusations of cheating and impropriety, but if you’re interested go check out the blog on the juco D-lineman that just got cleared to enroll at UGA. You Techies are all full of baseless conspiracy theories that somehow someone did something wrong to get him in. Its pretty typical behavior out of you clowns actually. Denying it will only make you look more foolish than you already do.
Thanks.
Double Standard?
January 4th, 2013
1:36 pm
You mean, Sun Belt?
No, No I’m pretty sure they didn’t.
Vampire Bill
January 4th, 2013
1:37 pm
BAMA will win the cheerleader and hot chick band contest, that’s for sure !!
Alphare
January 4th, 2013
1:41 pm
ND defense is good, but a bit below BAMA good.
ND offense is average, while BAMA offense is good.
BAMA running game is superb, while ND running game is good.
What makes SEC good in NC games is their running game and strong defense. BAMA has both this year as other SEC teams in previous NC games.
USC lost to Texas because they had to rely on a strong passing game, which cannot be a sure thing if their QB happens to have headache that day, just ask Colt McCoy.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
1:41 pm
No one has ever said anything of the sort. You simply made it up to fit your narrative.
According to Mark: the SEC has gotten so good at winning national championships that it would take a monumental performance by a transcendent player to derail this locomotive.
That is about as close as you can get to saying that a non SEC team can’t beat an SEC team. Do you agree with Mark that there is almost no chance that a non SEC team ever beats an SEC team in a title game ever again?
JB
January 4th, 2013
1:42 pm
Bama will win a tough fight. Bama has better coaching, more talent, more speed and a total package of completeness. Bama held off a Georgia team that could also beat ND. I just don’t think looking at the body of play by ND this year they know what they are up against. If ND somehow won, it would be a major upset IMO
Alphare
January 4th, 2013
1:43 pm
I don’t believe LSU or FL would lose their games this year if what they played are an NC game.
DIT
January 4th, 2013
1:45 pm
At first I was saying that Bama was going to beat ND by a large margin. The closer the game gets here I’m starting to waiver on that. I still think Bama will win, but it will be much closer. It could be a field goal in the final minutes.
This is going to be a great game. At least this BCS game will be sold out! Still can’t get over the Sugar Bowl!
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
1:49 pm
I don’t believe LSU or FL would lose their games this year if what they played are an NC game.
This has become the new SEC excuse. They didn’t win because they didn’t care about the game. According to SEC fans the SEC is undefeated in games they are trying to win.
SuperB
January 4th, 2013
1:50 pm
Mark: good ref. to the 2003 Miami game. the call you referred to was one of the worst ever, and NOT made by the closest official to the play, who was looking right at it.
Say whut
January 4th, 2013
1:52 pm
Hey GT Bob: How can a GT fan know much when they only saw one great team all year: the one that beat the crap out of you in Athens– again.
DIT
January 4th, 2013
1:55 pm
Pay no attention to Sponge Bob…….. He lives for the attention he gets on these blogs.
Alphare
January 4th, 2013
1:55 pm
Bob,
you may have a point there, but don’t you think your game would be up a notch when you are trying to win a big prize?
One thing about FL, their players look so small. I am not sure it’s because of their uniform or what, they look smaller than Louisville players. Usually BAMA/LSU players look imposingly big compared to other teams.
UGABob
January 4th, 2013
1:56 pm
Say Whut, don’t waste your time with him. Really. The little kid really does think he knows everything and is never wrong. His life is to come on here and get everyone worked up. Sad I know.
dawgfan
January 4th, 2013
1:59 pm
I AM DAWGFAN. I have been following college football for 20 years, so I know EVERYTHING there is to know about it. The rest of you morons need to shut up and listen to what I say. I AM DAWGFAN, HEAR ME BARK! WOOF WOOF
Thanks
DIT
January 4th, 2013
2:00 pm
You’re correct. Sponge Bob knows it all……… Heck, just ask him!
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
2:05 pm
@dawgster “You Techies are all full of baseless conspiracy theories that somehow someone did something wrong to get him in. Its pretty typical behavior out of you clowns actually. Denying it will only make you look more foolish than you already do.”
I suggest that you not paint everyone with the same broad brush. I also think that your positions with respect to the Georgia-Georgia Tech rivalry are not universally shared by all Georgia fans.
Delbert D.
January 4th, 2013
2:07 pm
Sorry; that was meant for “dawgfan”, not “dawgster.” I didn’t mean to offend anyone.
AtlSteve
January 4th, 2013
2:07 pm
Pulling for Bama since they are SEC. I’ve seen too many uopsets this bowl season to say Bama is absolutely going to win.
Moist Dog @ 12:26 – Strength of schedule goes to Bama. Teamrating.com shows Bama at the 3rd toughest schedule, and Notre Dame at 27. Bama played 6 bowl teams during the regular seaon. They played 5 teams who are currently listed in the Top 10 for strength of schedule. Notre Dame played 1 team currently listed in the Top 10 for strength of schedule.
Mark Bradley
January 4th, 2013
2:13 pm
Talking over lunch with some fellow writers, and they’re kind of like me: They can make a case for Notre Dame, but a better case for Bama.
After further review
January 4th, 2013
2:19 pm
On paper, Bama probably has the edge, but the game is paid on the field, and the ball can bounce funny sometimes, so we’ll see what happens Monday night.
GTBob
January 4th, 2013
2:20 pm
Teamrating.com shows Bama at the 3rd toughest schedule
That website doesn’t seem to exist, but if there is some site out there that actually thinks Bama played the 3rd toughest schedule in the country then you should probably ignore them.
Alphare
January 4th, 2013
2:27 pm
Bob, it’s here:
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/strength-of-schedule-by-team
Mora less Petrino
January 4th, 2013
2:29 pm
Roll Tide, Go Falcons!
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
January 4th, 2013
2:31 pm
Barrett Jones and the SR’s called a team meeting due to they didn’t think the practice sessions were going that well for Bama and the young players weren’t as intense as they should. Humm…. Bama is running up hill in this game with all the pressure for the repeat. The 1st 5 minutes will tells us a lot about ND. If they can run the ball then it’s game on. ND will put 8 men in the box and make AJ beat them throwing the ball just as teams have done since 2008. AJ will be the MVP or the goat.
other forums are posting Jarvis has declared to the NFL but I don’t see anything on the AJC. LSU is losing many folks to the early route to the NFL.
LakeDawg
January 4th, 2013
2:31 pm
I think Bama is counting a couple of NC’s awarded by the Tuscaloosa News.
DIT
January 4th, 2013
2:34 pm
I read Jarvis declared today as well.
History may favor the underdog Irish, but Bama is too good – Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) | GoogleITV.com
January 4th, 2013
2:45 pm
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JB
January 4th, 2013
2:49 pm
For the Haters of UGA on here ( most if not all Techies) Dawgs go 12-2, win the SEC East, Play Bama,( the measuring stick for all of college football today) to the final whistle, and win their bowl game, and will likely finish in or near the top 5……………..Yet, still you come on here and trash the Dawgs………I would think from ANY open minded college football fan ANYWHERE in the country, they would say, Good job and very good team. Tech would KILL to present that resume…..Kill I tell you.
A person SMART enough to know.....
January 4th, 2013
2:51 pm
Who played the WEAKER Schedule? Bama or Notre Dame?
JB
January 4th, 2013
2:51 pm
DIT…….Yep, we all knew that was coming……We need more like him in Athens. Maybe with Garner out the way, we will.
Old Dawg
January 4th, 2013
2:52 pm
I’m not a fan of either team, but I do recognize Saban’s ability as a head coach, so I go with Alabama.
A person SMART enough to know.....
January 4th, 2013
2:55 pm
JB you sure a Conspiracy Theory kind of guy, right?
If there were that many TECH fans on the BLOGS, then don’t you think We would FILL that lil stadium in Atlanta better?
JB
January 4th, 2013
3:02 pm
There are about a dozen on here, and none use anything Tech in their moniker to give themselves away, due to of course to the utter decay of the Tech football program the last 2-3 years and the disdain they have for anything UGA and any success they have, which just drives them up a wall. We have been told all our Lives that Techies are the happiest, most successful people on the planet.
JB
January 4th, 2013
3:03 pm
apologizes to GTBob