2013 could be big for Tech, which could stand a big year
One day in the Sun brought much joy to the Yellow Jackets. (AP photo)
For Georgia Tech, many things happened en route to 7-7. The Yellow Jackets barely got bowl-eligible, and then they got bowl-ineligible by losing the ACC Championship game, and then the NCAA granted a waiver that allowed Tech to be invited back to the Sun Bowl, which is where it became the only team ever to beat the preseason No. 1 after losing at home to Middle Tennessee.
When you lose seven games, you can’t say you’ve had a good season. (Unless you’re Duke, which in football nobody aspires to be.) When you win seven games after starting 2-4, neither can you say the whole thing was a total loss. The Jackets took a season going wrong and wrestled it into something that seemed better than mediocrity, even though .500 is the definition of mediocrity.
The sense now is that better days are ahead, but that sensation is largely the result of beating USC in El Paso, and bowl results aren’t always indicative of future performance. (Example: Georgia Tech lost the 2008 Chick-fil-A Bowl by 35 points and went 11-3 in 2009.) The Jackets wanted badly to beat Southern Cal, which didn’t want to play.
Yes, Tech should be better in 2013 than in 2012. It loses three starters on offense and three on defense, and the absence of quarterback Tevin Washington clears the way for Vad Lee, of whom much is expected. The guess is that interim defensive coordinator Charles Kelly passed the audition with his work against Florida State and USC, and he has to be considered an upgrade over Al Groh, for whom nothing worked.
The schedule hasn’t been finalized, but it could be adventurous. Assuming the ACC’s rotation holds in its expansion to 14 teams, the Jackets will play host to Virginia Tech, Clemson and North Carolina. There’s a chance Florida State will play here, and there’s also a chance the Jackets could visit Clemson for a second year running. There will be trips to BYU and Miami, but it’s unclear how stout the Hurricanes will be once the NCAA gets done with them. Plus the Georgia game will be in Atlanta.
If Lee is as good as advertised and the defense is indeed better, the 2013 Jackets could win nine or 10 games. But here’s the sobering part: Tech hasn’t won that many games in a year since the bulk of Chan Gailey’s leftovers departed for the NFL in January 2010. In Paul Johnson’s first two seasons here, his teams were 20-7; they’ve since gone 21-19. Since Oct. 14, 2011, the Jackets are 9-12.
Johnson takes pains to note that his teams have at least tied for the best record in the Coastal Division three times in five seasons, but the Coastal has become the lesser half of a conference that still struggles for national credibility. Yes, the Jackets wound up representing the Coastal in the ACC Championship game, but that came in a year when Virginia Tech was awful by its standards and North Carolina was on probation and Miami chose to step aside.
Credit Johnson and his Jackets for being too stubborn to collapse, but Johnson’s pride has never been in doubt, and his stylized offense remains the best thing Tech has going for it. But the Institute will in the coming weeks make a hire that could have a greater effect on the football program than Johnson’s choice for defensive coordinator.
Dan Radakovich hired Johnson, but first the athletic director had to persuade himself that a run-based approach could win big in the 21st century. Then Johnson made the AD look smart by beating Georgia in Year 1 and winning the ACC in Year 2. Now Radakovich works at Clemson, which means Johnson will soon have a new boss.
Tech’s new AD might see underwhelming attendance as evidence that pitchouts don’t move the ticketing needle. The new AD might be more swayed by recruiting rankings. (At North Carolina State, Debbie Yow cited tepid signing classes as partial cause for Tom O’Brien’s dismissal.) The new AD might ask when/if this program will again be competitive against Georgia.
The nice part about beating USC was that it stirred, pun intended, a bit of a buzz around a program that hasn’t lately raised much ruckus. But that was one game, and an odd game at that. The new AD might, as new ADs do, look hard at a body of work.
Dave Braine hired Gailey as a coach and handed him a new five-year contract in November 2005, but it took less than two years for Radakovich, who succeeded Braine, to decide Chan wasn’t his man. Yes, Johnson has been better than Gailey, but maybe by not as much as you’d think. Through five seasons, Gailey was 37-27. Through five seasons, Johnson is 41-26.
This isn’t to suggest that Johnson could or should be fired. The belief here is that he’s a good coach, but it would behoove him to have a big 2013. Athletic directors find it easier to embrace a coach who’s holding a trophy.
By Mark Bradley
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274 comments Add your comment
Supersize that order, mutt
January 2nd, 2013
4:03 pm
What all you silly mutts forget is that, despite what it is now, Tech once had the largest stadium in the SEC and it was jam-packed every week. UGA even periodically scheduled double headers at Grant Field because nobody was willing to go to Athens.
Masters Champion
January 2nd, 2013
4:04 pm
The STANDARDS are NOT too High at Tech. They are TOO LOW in America.
Supersize that order, mutt
January 2nd, 2013
4:05 pm
@ Masters Champion……WELL PUT !!!!
UGABob
January 2nd, 2013
4:06 pm
Because Tech and its fans are comical GTBob. Why on Earth do you care so much about UGA and live your life on UGA blogs?
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
4:06 pm
@GTBob – where did I say they have always been world beaters? I’m looking at what they have built and how they are currently recruiting. Vandy and Stanford in particular have created program momentum that isnt likely to die out soon.
Tech Man
January 2nd, 2013
4:10 pm
To Mr. Cattledawg. My daughter went to Stanford and majored in Political Science which she said was fairly easy major. They also have majors in history, education, and Health and Science. Don’t tell me Stanford is as hard as Tech.Also, at Stanford you don’t have to take freshman Calculus as the athletes at Tech have to. Name me one Georgia football player who could pass Calculus his freshman year. So go blow your nose and get your facts straight.
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
4:10 pm
Vandy and Stanford in particular have created program momentum that isnt likely to die out soon.
Vandy has beaten one team with a winning record in the past 3 years. Stanford’s 2013 recruiting class is ranked below GT’s. I’m not sure I would make that statement. These schools are having temporary success. They aren’t turning into football factories. GT has had temporary success at times also.
Supersize that order, mutt
January 2nd, 2013
4:10 pm
@ Mike S……and neither of those schools require calculus (or a survey of calculus) for graduation.
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
4:11 pm
Because Tech and its fans are comical GTBob. Why on Earth do you care so much about UGA and live your life on UGA blogs?
I have devoted my life to annoying UGA fans.
Delbert D.
January 2nd, 2013
4:12 pm
David Shaw and Pat Fitzgerald are likely to be lifers at Stanford and Northwestern respectively. The passion runs very deep for them and their universities.
UGABob
January 2nd, 2013
4:12 pm
Pretty sad. Guess that’s what happens when someone has no woman, life, friends, etc.
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
4:14 pm
Pretty sad. Guess that’s what happens when someone has no woman, life, friends, etc.
Yep. I have none of that and I play world of warcraft, im a terrorist, and I get mugged daily on campus. Im everything you want me to be.
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
4:15 pm
I forgot Syracuse and Pittsburgh join the league next year. Tech will likely be playing at least one of them. So FSU possibly on the schedule + UGA + Clemson + @Miami + @BYU + Va tech + one or both of Syracuse/Pittsburgh + any other improvement in ACC play = the toughest schedule Tech has had in years + this team is going to struggle to stay bowl eligible. We’ve heard about “bright futures” for 3 years now only to see 6-7 win seasons each year. This team needs to do more than just improve in the offseason.
Tech Troll 13
January 2nd, 2013
4:22 pm
@ GT Bob
I believe you have met your goal and I applaud you.
jdatl
January 2nd, 2013
4:23 pm
Johnson isn’t a good overall head coach. He can’t recruit, which is the lifeblood of a program. Two bad hires in a row have helped UGA own the jackets. I wish it were a little more competitive. I did enjoy watching Lane K get embarrased on National TV.
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
4:24 pm
@GTBob & Supersize- ok then. I guess its all a fluke. Meanwhile, We will continue to watch Stanford compete for PAC 12 titles. We will continue to watch Franklin turn Vandy into a program no one wants to play. Trust me. The SEC has taken notice. Vandy is now a place they are happy to escape with a win. Ask Spurrier, Richt, Muschamp, Meyer, and all the others that have had close calls up there the last few years. We will continue to watch programs like Cincinnati and Rutgers turn over coaches and continue to outperform Johnson’s staff. Tech has no excuse guys. Gailey turned the recruiting around. Oleary recruited pretty well and coached them up as good as any Tech coach in recent memory. Johnson has no real excuse.
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
4:25 pm
Two bad hires in a row have helped UGA own the jackets.
UGA has owned the jackets for 50 years. It has little to do with coaching.
To Yellow World
January 2nd, 2013
4:28 pm
10/11 sounds pretty defenseless to meeeeeeee
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
4:30 pm
Gailey turned the recruiting around. Oleary recruited pretty well and coached them up as good as any Tech coach in recent memory. Johnson has no real excuse.
Gailey had one decent recruiting class. Other than that he was significantly worse than CPJ is. O’Leary was given much more lee way in his recruiting and he exploited that, eventually getting us into academic trouble and causing flunkgate. O’Leary will forever be the coach who made GT recruiting even harder than it needed to be. With new APR rules and a school administration who isn’t messing around, the recruiting numbers are not going to improve.
Seriously????
January 2nd, 2013
4:35 pm
Well congratulations. We are the best of the worst – “lesser half of a conference that still struggles for national credibility.” Hire an AD so he can hire a football coach. Beating an unmotivated team lead by a 2nd string quarterback is nothing to celebrate about. I think Lame Kiffin wore the sunglasses hoping no one would recognize him in El Paso. I repeat – Hire an AD so he can hire a football coach.
Just Saying..
January 2nd, 2013
4:36 pm
blackandwhitestripes
Fun-Ney!!
TTT
January 2nd, 2013
4:37 pm
With new APR rules and a school administration who isn’t messing around, the recruiting numbers are not going to improve.
==
This is the crux of the problem. Tech can’t adopt the UGA model (extremely low standards) so we go for the basic low standards model of admissions.
Everyone – Tech and UGA fans alike – knows that the bulk of these kids aren’t doing university level work. But, we all love talking football, fall Saturday afternoons at the stadium, etc. so we ignore what our lying eyes tell us.
JPS
January 2nd, 2013
4:38 pm
If Tech is going to win 9 or 10 games they need to keep Middle Tennesse State off the schedule and only play ACC teams.
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
4:42 pm
@GTBob – Gailey had two good recruiting classes. His 08 class was top 20, but fell apart after he got fired. The most telling part of that is he had momentum. Recruits saw the success guys like Calvin Johnson, Tashard Choice, and Phillip Wheeler had here…players Johnson would never be able to recruit. If his recruiting was so bad, how do you explain Johnson’s success with his recruits and lack thereof after they left? Outside of Bobby Ross’ staff, Oleary’s staff is the best we’ve had at tech in decades.
85jacket
January 2nd, 2013
4:44 pm
CPJ has done a splendid job at getting kids that can play ball and get a degree. Tech just had the one of the best class graduation rates and that is to Johnson’s credit. Tech is a tough school on par with MIT. MIT does not try and compete Division one football. Tech has to recruit kids that can take the academic rigors along with the athletics. This is totally foreign to a Dawg fan but it is the Tech reality and always has been. It is not whining to point out the facts and defend the school that you support.
Bumblers
January 2nd, 2013
4:47 pm
Tech holding a trophy in 2013? Come on man lay off the meds……
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
4:47 pm
Outside of Bobby Ross’ staff, Oleary’s staff is the best we’ve had at tech in decades.
Sorry but O’Leary was pretty much scum at GT. He brought in players that weren’t fit to attend GT, loaded their early class schedule with entry level classes, watched them fail later, got us in trouble with the NCAA, caused flunkgate, left for Notre Dame and was fired almost immediately for forging a resume. Why anyone holds that guy in high esteem is beyond me. Chan Gailey wasn’t the greatest coach, or a good recruiter but at least he tried hard with what he had and didn’t embarrass the institute.
Delbert D.
January 2nd, 2013
4:51 pm
For anyone who may be interested, here’s a re-post from one I did a little over a year ago on how the Ivy League handles student-athlete admissions:
Part of the college football scene actually has a reasonably-level playing field for admissions. Here is some infomation that I condensed from an article by Bill Pennington on the NY Times web site on Dec. 24, 2011 titled “Before Recruiting in the Ivy League, Applying Some Math.” A version of the story was in print on Dec. 25th.
The Ivy League does not offer athletic scholarships. In order to evaluate prospective student-athletes for academic scholarships, the Ivy League has a formula called the Academic Index. All prospective Ivy League student athletes for 280 teams in 35 sports are evaluated by it. Each school has varying academic standards, so what works for Brown doesn’t necessarily work for Harvard; The A.I. requirements are several points higher at Harvard. The A.I. process is aimed at student-athletes in all sports fitting into the standard deviation of all students.
The minimum A.I. for any Ivy league school is 176 (up from 171 in previous years), which roughly translates to a B student (3.0 on a 4.0 scale) with a score of 1140 on the old two-part SAT. However, there are other factor for admission. Student athletes have been rejected with an A.I. of 210, which translates to a 4.0 GPA with roughly a 1,300 on the 2-part SAT for a variety of reasons including the interview performance, a poor essay or lack of advanced placement courses. To put this in perspective, the the average student atendding college in the U.S. would have an A.I. of about 150.
Ivy league football teams are allowed to support an average of 30 recruits a year, with the evaluation of prospective student-athletes in four A.I. bands spaced 10 points apart. Last year Penn was given 2 spots in the lowest band, 8 in the 2nd band, 12 in the 3rd and 8 in the highest. for all sports the low end last year was Brown, with 7 teams with average A.I.’s of less than 200. Yale had 1, and Harvard and Princeton had none.
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
4:51 pm
@GTBob – I’m talking about what his coaching staff did on the field, and dont mistake what I said for esteem. That’s as much an indictment of the program as any that his tenure is one of the best we’ve had in decades.
root4au
January 2nd, 2013
4:52 pm
You do realize GT beat a crappy USC team. Both teams were crap this year.
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
4:56 pm
@GTBob – speaking of esteem that is “beyond me”, how do you keep making excuses for Johnson like he’s the best we will ever get? Every point made about him is valid…recruiting, lack of success without Gailey’s players, coaching, defense, poor records in a bad ACC, stubborn reliance on an option that clearly isnt fooling anyone any good…on and on. Yet you keep making excuses like he’s doing just as good as everyone else. I hate to break it to you, but the program was better off with Gailey and Tenuta running the D. At least then we competed with SEC title competing UGA instead of rolling over like we were some kind of paycheck game. At least we owned Clemson, beat Miami/Va Tech, and could beat good out of conference competition (ND and Auburn).
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
4:58 pm
@GTBob – I’m talking about what his coaching staff did on the field, and dont mistake what I said for esteem.
His actions hurt future GT teams though. Not only did Gailey have scholarship reductions to worry about, but its pretty well known that the admissions standards got drastically higher after that. He may have permanently altered the GT football program in a negative way. The few years of good results, which really weren’t even that great, really weren’t worth it.
Supersize that order, mutt
January 2nd, 2013
5:01 pm
@ root4au….you do realize that UGA beat a team that gave up 63 points to Ohio State and lost to UCLA (not exactly a world-beater). Nebraska was obviously a better team this week than was USC, but they weren’t exactly great either.
TheDude
January 2nd, 2013
5:02 pm
“(At North Carolina State, Debbie Yow cited tepid signing classes as partial cause for Tom O’Brien’s dismissal.)” Yes, yes, lets all cite Debbie Yow on being an AD 101, of whom John Feinstein famously said,”Debbie Yow’s ego wouldn’t fit inside the Comcast Center,” and that Shaka Smart’s position on her when NCSU tried to hire him according to Feinstein was “‘I would rather work at VCU for a million dollars less than come and work for you, which is what he basically said two days ago,” or who has changed seven coaches in just over two years and had a rather frosty, to say the least, reputation with some of her big name coaches while at Maryland, or the state of her former employer’s finances. Come on Mark, you know you are better than that. That was lazy.
GTBob
January 2nd, 2013
5:05 pm
Yet you keep making excuses like he’s doing just as good as everyone else.
He had the best first 4 years of any GT coach in history. He has won an ACC championship, beaten UGA, and now even won a bowl game. He is significantly improving the academic performance of our players. Is he perfect? No, of course not, but to me that resume earns him a couple of years to turn things around. Expecting 10 win seasons and wins over UGA every year is just going to cause GT fans to keep running coaches off, bringing in new coaches who have the same recruiting issues and have to rebuild a program in 4 years which seems to be how long GT fans are willing to wait. Its getting old and I would like to see if a coach can actually build something here.
TheDude
January 2nd, 2013
5:06 pm
Oh no you didn’t, did you really just cite Debbie Yow on running an athletic Department 101. WOW! That was either lazy because you just needed a quote from someone or you had an agenda or both.
CFBFan
January 2nd, 2013
5:06 pm
The Jackets could be twice as good next year, and the Dawgs could be half as good… and the Dawgs would *still* wax them.
ignition
January 2nd, 2013
5:24 pm
What I’ve noticed about CPJ is that for all his arrogance and stubborness he is adaptable..
When Vad was in the game he ran majority Pistol formations and had all kinds of movement going on in the back field. Definitely will be more fun to watch the passing game develop as I’m learning he is also looking at recruiting TE in his next class.
The defense is the MAIN concern, Tech would have won at least 2 more games if the defense was better, honestly, if Tech could get a top 40 defense (which is mediocre) they should be able to win 9 games consistently.
DAMN GOOD JACKETS
January 2nd, 2013
5:29 pm
I think CPJ shouldn’t stop with just the one firing of Groh. Recruiting could be much better. Where’s the next Dwyer or Derrick Morgan? At least one or two NFL guys.
Jamal Golden can return punts without a specials team coach who took over half the season to figure out Tanner was the man for the job in Field Goals.
There is still room for tweaking. Hope CPJ will seriously consider doing more.
Casual observer
January 2nd, 2013
5:33 pm
“The jackets MIGHT win 10 games in 2013.” Firstly, does that count the Sun Bowl? And, the dog MIGHT have caught the rabbit if he hadn’t stopped to take a sh*t.
DAMN GOOD JACKETS
January 2nd, 2013
5:33 pm
now that Chan Gailey era is over at Buffalo, is Giff Smith available? Anyone think CPJ should give him a call?
Casual observer
January 2nd, 2013
5:42 pm
The jacket’s victory over the mighty USC Condoms happened in 2012. My bad.
jfreak13713
January 2nd, 2013
5:58 pm
Lifelong Tech fan but this program won’t be much more next year than it was this year because football has changed so much over the past several years. I love to watch this system work and think if there was a really good defense to support it MIGHT be a top 25 team most years but that is about it. The PROOF is in the record and on the field. I hope I’m wrong because I really like to watch this offense work well but todays players are so big and fast the good school can limit what Johnson offense can do most weeks. Just below or just above .500 is my prediction.
V-Tech = L
Georgia = L
Clemson = L
Florida ST = L
Then Tech will find a way to lose 1 or 2 more games along the way they always do.
Sorry, but this is their recent history.
skiatl
January 2nd, 2013
6:10 pm
birdhair, the stupidity of your comment is very indicative of the school you choose to support. If coach paul johnson had the talent of many SEC teams, he would have done no worse than 10-11 wins each season. If Richt had tech’s players and tech’s acc schedule this year, they wouldn’t have gotten to 6 wins.
Ben
January 2nd, 2013
6:41 pm
I think Paul Johnson should read the book, “How to Win Friends and Influence People.”
Is it necessary for people to like a coach? Not at all. But his rudeness and sarcasm and belligerence often embarrass me as a Tech fan.
UGABob
January 2nd, 2013
6:52 pm
Posted by some nerd on a Tech blog at 6:39 tonight. Like I said, Tech fans are comical!
CPJ is the smartest guy in the room, any room. We will win the ACC next year and finish in the top ten . Vad Lee is awesome and will be a heisman front runner by his senior year. We just steamrolled a team that was ranked #1 early in the year. The D is on track now, too bad we can’t play UGA right now but we’ll see you on The Flats in Nov. The Flats will be a scary place next !
SOWEGAGT
January 2nd, 2013
6:57 pm
To Dawgfan: Long live the memory of Jan Kemp!
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
7:04 pm
@GTBob – so who’s asking for 10 win seasons? Johnson hasn’t won 8 yet with mostly his own players. he won an ACC title with Gailey’s players. He beat the worst UGA defense in memory with Gailey’s players.
I get that we shouldn’t be switching coaches every few years, but we are now headed into year six with Johnson. I’d like to see someone build something here too…oh wait…that’s what Gailey was doing and we fired him. We fired him because he couldn’t beat top 10 UGA squads. He could compete with them, just not get that one play or two to win. Never mind is recruiting had gotten significantly better. He was able to get players in here Johnson could never dream of. Never mind he was competing in a better ACC than the mess its in these days.
Well, now UGA is back in the top 10 and we cant even stay on the field with them. The ACC has gotten progressively worse, and we can barely manage to stay above .500 in conference play. What exactly to you think it being built here? At some point, you have to look and realize its not working. Johnson has had five years, and the program is clearly headed in the wrong direction.
Mike S.
January 2nd, 2013
7:09 pm
I hate to play the “I told you so” card, but this is exactly what I said would happen with Johnson. I said he might win the first 2-3 years until Gailey’s players graduated and teams got used to playing his triple option. That’s exactly what has happened. I said he would never be able to recruit the same level of players, or players good enough to do more than maybe upset a good team here or there. That’s exactly what has happened.
I cant say hiring Johnson was a mistake. It broke the UGA losing streak which seems to be all people care about at Tech. Extending him with this contract without seeing what he could do with his own players was definitely a huge mistake.
SlimG
January 2nd, 2013
7:21 pm
Funny Mark, must have gotten a nice Xmas gift from CPJ? Just kidding buddy. CPJ has been exposed and things will not get better. Count the losses first Mark: 1. GA 2. VaTech 3. Miami 4. BYU and that’s just the people we know. Oh forgot 5. Clemson……Sounds like another great year on the flats. Who will Paul blame next year? Let’s see kids didn’t play hard enough, we made too many mistakes but the offensive scheme was awesome. Give me a break.