Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
Steve
November 19th, 2012
8:36 pm
That’s right BigKim! Richt can’t beat ranked teams! Especially as recently as a month ago against the #2, and currently #4 team in the country. Instead of being a little girl and only dating back to 2009, how about you post his record since 2001 against ranked teams? 32-28 since. Doesn’t look as bad does it little girl?
Goldenrod
November 19th, 2012
8:42 pm
I think we have the sexiest coach at Tech!!
E
November 19th, 2012
8:45 pm
He does have a nice pair of moobs, Goldenrod.
JB
November 19th, 2012
8:51 pm
In all honesty, the game has changed a lot since Bobby Dodd. Tech has not. They are at very first a fine Engineering school who suffer few fools, except the Reggie Ball types they baby sit through the academic part. The SEC with our very liberal arts courses attract the type Athlete we need to be BCS material. Add to insult, Tech now employs a coach who tries to “will” them to perform and win. Western Carolina types playing big boy football. You end up 6-6. Saturday will be fun for a couple of Quarters, then the #3 Dawgs wear down a less talented, smaller no depth Tech team and walk away 45 to 21. Go Dawgs.
Inside GTracy's Mind
November 19th, 2012
8:54 pm
FYI…I went to Georgia Tech because I’m not pretty and had tons of time to study in high school. But HEY, guess what?!? My big brother played on the Georgia Tech 1990 team! And if you didn’t know that totally means I was on the team too. Also, means I know EVERYTHING about football. If you don’t believe me just ask……go ahead. Ask me anything! I promise I won’t google it or ask my big brother. O yeah, I hate Georgia fans. All they do is beat us year after year. All the girls that go there are so gorgeous and the stupid guys wouldn’t spit on me if I were on fire. But hey, guess what?!?!? My big brother played for GA Tech! I swear! Do you want a sandwich??? Oh yeah! And if I don’t like how people make fun of me on here I will totally report you! So there!!!
South Georgia Guy
November 19th, 2012
8:54 pm
When Paul Johnson came to Atlanta, he looked at buying my house in Buckhead three times. He purchased a cheaper one in Vinings that backed up to the railroad tracks. Georgia Tech has a class act for a coach.
Wal-Mart Retards
November 19th, 2012
8:55 pm
45-42 again! Say hello to my little friend… you can call him Vad.
Steve
November 19th, 2012
8:57 pm
Sooooo Tech fans are posting the score of the one game they won against UGA that happened several years ago? Wow. Says a lot.
JB
November 19th, 2012
8:58 pm
Big Jim………..I’ve never understood the concept of predicting an outcome of a game of something that happened 1,2,3 years ago. Bama is not the same team in was in 08…and neither is Georgia. I think Georgia is better than LSU this year AT THIS TIME and they almost beat Bama.
Wal-Mart Retards
November 19th, 2012
8:59 pm
yep, says Steve is redneckin’ UGA fan, BUT HE CAN READ!
good one, Steve – way to go buddy!!!!
JB
November 19th, 2012
9:00 pm
Vad, say hello to my two big LB friends….Jarvis and Ogletree. Probably the 2 best LB’s in America…..Don’t know them…………..You will
RealityDawg
November 19th, 2012
9:01 pm
The bug’s defense is complete crap.
Pee Wee Herman could score on them.
JB
November 19th, 2012
9:03 pm
Tech is excited Saturday because they will go up against 7 or 8 future NFL defensive players….Thus they get to live the dream without ever getting there, playing against NFL types.
JB
November 19th, 2012
9:05 pm
What ACC team hung 58 points and 700 hundred yards two weeks ago on Tech?
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:07 pm
“Pee Wee Herman could score on them.”
Sorry, but this is funny! LOL
JB
November 19th, 2012
9:08 pm
Gotta make sure we get Pat Dye half drunk on the radio somewhere SECCG week saying Dawgs ain’t man enough to beat Bama.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:09 pm
“What ACC team hung 58 points and 700 hundred yards two weeks ago on Tech?”
I give up…who?
Inside GTracy's Mind
November 19th, 2012
9:10 pm
Did you guys know the brother was on the 1990 Tech team?
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 19th, 2012
9:10 pm
`
UGA playing Georgia Southern may actually help GT’s preparation.
What ACC team hung 68 points on North Carolina?
Steve
November 19th, 2012
9:10 pm
I guess “Wal-Mart Retards” has that name to describe his family and friends professions? Posting a score from 2009 sure is sad. That would be like a UGA fan posting “26-23″ in reference to UGA winning at Bama in 2007. What a loser.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:11 pm
“say hello to my two big LB friends….Jarvis and Ogletree.”
Provided there’s no drug test prior to the game.
Steve
November 19th, 2012
9:12 pm
“Provided there’s no drug test prior to the game.” Nice sentence! Great education.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:13 pm
“That would be like a UGA fan posting “26-23″ in reference to UGA winning at Bama in 2007.”
Uh, Steve you just did that! That’s like calling yourself the “pot” and “kettle” in the same sentence.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:14 pm
Thanks Steve
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 19th, 2012
9:18 pm
`
If 2-9 Kentucky can almost ruin UGA’s season,
it’s possible that 6-5 Georgia Tech could ruin it for real.
Steve
November 19th, 2012
9:20 pm
Nope, I was simply providing (correct use of the word) an example you idiot.
If Middle TN State can win at Tech easily, Tech has no chance in Athens, as usual.
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
9:20 pm
Player suspended for “eating brownies with pot in them”
Player removed for filing off serial numbers from a gun
Player suspended for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Player 2 suspened for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Player 3 suspened for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Players suspended for a game for hitting woman
Players suspended for over half the season for steroid usage.
Lost to USC for multiple years
Lost to UCF two years ago
Lost to Colorado who fired their coach the same year
Lost 9 out of the last 11 games against top 20 teams
Red Panties by the Dawg Supreme leader
Assistant Coach choke sign to player
Assistant Coach wants to fight a head coach
Want More?
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:32 pm
“Nope, I was simply providing (correct use of the word) an example you idiot.”
Steve, are you drunk? It’s becoming difficult to follow your thought process.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:34 pm
Steve, layoff the PBR and Old Crow. You’re getting incoherent. Save it for game day.
Steve
November 19th, 2012
9:39 pm
Plays in a high school stadium
Has zero hot women on campus
Has lost to the only team they care about 10 out of the last 11 years
Can’t sellout games in a small stadium
Has tickets returned from Athens
Lost to Middle TN State – 2012
Lost to Kansas – 2010
Had 2009 ACC Championship revoked
Has lost 7 bowl games in a row
Want more little boy?
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:42 pm
I wonder if any of the really awful comments go to moderation? Dang! I forgot dogs can post whatever they like.
Kim Bassinger
November 19th, 2012
9:43 pm
UGA wins Tech looses end of story.
Steve
November 19th, 2012
9:46 pm
Forgot:
AD leaves BY CHOICE for a rival school
Worst defense ever
Has schools wanting/deciding to leave their pathetic conference
Has a fishnet on their helmet as a uniform
E
November 19th, 2012
9:47 pm
Of course he’s drunk. It’s the only way comments on this site make sense. You have Georgia fans yelling in all caps, Tech fans crowing about a victory from 4 years ago, ‘Bama fans crowing about a 4 year old game, and Florida fans talking junk about a team they’ve lost to twice in a row. Being drunk is the only way to make sense out of the idiocy that we all post.
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
9:54 pm
Players do not graduate
Students who do graduate work for rival school graduates.
Mom and Dad allow children to be part of the Thuggery
Jan Kemp
Jim Harrick
Bad Hip
Can’t Keep a Mascot long than one season- whoops “Temporary” title removed
Fraternities and Sororities shut down multiple times
Clark County Jail is now an active dorm for athletes
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
9:55 pm
Rival School has won a National Tilte since their last in 1980….
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:56 pm
“UGA wins Tech looses end of story.”
Steve, what’s your take on this sentence?
mambo
November 19th, 2012
9:56 pm
Dawgs 42 Jackets 21
mambo
November 19th, 2012
9:56 pm
Dawgs 42 Jackets 21
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
9:57 pm
AD FORCED out for being with a woman not his wife, drunk with her undergarments between his legs after posting videos on the jumbotron about drugs and drinking….
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
9:59 pm
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
9:56 pm
“UGA wins Tech looses end of story.”
Steve, what’s your take on this sentence?
______________________________________
UGA education …..
” I bet we we get more lose balls than Tech’ or is it ” I bet your daddy looses his”
UGA = Yawn
November 19th, 2012
10:00 pm
I agree with Mark – it’s possible. Why not? Stranger things have happened. A fumble, an interception, a run back for a TD. GT could do it – we would need a bit of luck. But like in 2008, we were down by 16 at half and won. So you never know. I know, very deep down, Johnson does want to win this game and will do anything he can to win it. Vad will be a super star at GT – 3 more full years with him so I am excited about the future. None of us thought we would have any type of year worth remembering after being 1-3 in the conference. But now, why not? Nothing to lose. Play like there’s no tomorrow and win GT!!!
E
November 19th, 2012
10:01 pm
“Players do not Graduate”? I assume you’re talking about Tech’s graduation rate of 55% and not UGA’s graduation rate of 65%.
http://stanford.scout.com/2/1183346.html
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
10:02 pm
Rules of Basketball
E
November 19th, 2012
10:04 pm
???
Erk Russell's Dog
November 19th, 2012
10:05 pm
ACC should cancel Championship Game and declare FSU league champion. Otherwise Tech will go bowling with a 6 and 7 record.I hear Shreveport is lovely in late December. Vandy may be available as an opponent Nerd Bowl 2012.
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
10:05 pm
The University of Georgia announces that ALL fans are invited to WAFFLE HOUSE to have their picture taken with SEC EAST CHAMPIONSHIP BELT.
E
November 19th, 2012
10:06 pm
The site I linked to specifies football. Do they not teach reading comprehension in engineering schools?
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
10:06 pm
Erk Russell’s Dog
November 19th, 2012
10:05 pm
ACC should cancel Championship Game and declare FSU league champion. Otherwise Tech will go bowling with a 6 and 7 record.I hear Shreveport is lovely in late December. Vandy may be available as an opponent Nerd Bowl 2012.
Yeah that has been UGA’s winter get a way for multiple years- Shreveport
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
10:08 pm
Take out the walk ons. the PE, Recreation, and Special Studies graduates and UGA stands at 9.2%