Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
Phelps
November 19th, 2012
6:30 pm
Dawgs will win big.
C from Marietta
November 19th, 2012
6:31 pm
What do UGA fans and Tech fans have in common?
They are both obsessed with UGA football.
a.bishop
November 19th, 2012
6:31 pm
A crap team is still a crap team even when they are gifted a championship bid. Tech loses by 21.
Big time?? Not.
November 19th, 2012
6:31 pm
Four tickets, four hot dogs, four cokes. Nerds sent back tickets. Gonna be a blow out
Give us your lunch money!
dawgs out for blood
November 19th, 2012
6:33 pm
tech will be beat by 25 to 30 in this one they dawgs are to good
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
6:34 pm
@GTBob
Tech doesn’t have a 5 star recruit in their history but if Richt were here they would all of the sudden be coming in in droves. That seems like a logical argument.
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Nobody said they would come in droves Bob..But go to any of the high schooland ask if they would rather play in a triple option offense or a pro style offense.And when they answer pro style ask them why..Tell me the last non Chan Gailey recruit who was a high round NFL draft choice.Answer 0.High school recruits know the answer too.Georgia has nine first and second round draft picks on defense alone.
MT
November 19th, 2012
6:36 pm
Getting out of the SEC and not being a part of what it has become was the single greatest thing Bobby Dodd ever did.
Yeah right. That’s why ya’ll have downsized your stadium,football is an after thought,it has the same appeal among the student population as demolition derby,and you wonder why you can;t compete with Georgia anymore.I t never fails Techies always try to turn football blogs into who has the best academics,totally out of place on a football blog.It strange though other high reguarded insitutions such as Stanford seems to be able to strike a balance between sports and academics. We all realize that football is not as important as rocket science, however Tech needs to realize that even college football is big business,
and to be able to compete they need to put some serious money toward it.I mean GT’s disdain for athletics is laughable, as if college sports was all intermural, I wonder how many millions of dollars former
GT athlete’s have made after leaving Tech and going on to professional sports? Are they less of Georgia Tech grads because they ventured into the world of sports rather than engineering?I wonder how Calvin Johnson’s paycheck holds up compared to some engineering grad’s.BTW when ya’ll were in the SEC you could compete with Georgia and the other SEC schools.What the SEC has become? Who has won the last six NC’s. BTW UGA has had a few Rhodes Scholars,so there no entirely stupid over in Athens.
dawgs out for blood
November 19th, 2012
6:37 pm
and texas am better than uga gt bob ur on crack kid
MT
November 19th, 2012
6:39 pm
BTW UGA has had a few Rhodes Scholars,so their not entirely stupid over in Athens.
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
6:43 pm
@GTBob
If this is the case then why has every GT coach in recent memory been a poor recruiter? What exactly are you expecting Richt to do at GT that no one else has ever tried? Is it the hugging? And no, Richt would have no chance at making GT a top tier ACC team. Richt would have absolutely no idea what to do with below average talent. His whole coaching career he has been surrounded by 5 star morons who wouldn’t be able to get into most other schools.
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I wondered how long it would take before you ducked behind “academics” If Richt’s recruits couldnt get into any other schools he wouldnt have to get into recruiting battles with them.Tech is 68th in the BCS poll because CPJ cant recruit..Even if he were at Georgia he couldnt recruit.He wouldnt be able to recruit at Alabama.He wouldnt be able to recruit at Middle Tennesee St..Why? Nobody wants to play for him..
MT
November 19th, 2012
6:44 pm
Four tickets, four hot dogs, four cokes. Nerds sent back tickets.
They are really dedicated to supporting their team. When the game is in Athens they send tickets back.When the game is in Atlanta, Georgia fans buy GT season ticket to be able to get a seat. The majority of the stadium is wearing red.
blackandwhitestripes
November 19th, 2012
6:48 pm
One thing if for sure, Tech gets to play the game just like the mutts do.
DrC
November 19th, 2012
6:51 pm
@ St. Simons Jacket: 51 -7, 51-7, 51-7!!!
MT
November 19th, 2012
6:54 pm
blackandwhitestripes
One thing if for sure, Tech gets to play the game just like the mutts do.
But of course.
Ed
November 19th, 2012
7:10 pm
Can Tech ruin UGA’s season? I’m hoping so.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
7:11 pm
“What do UGA fans and Tech fans have in common?
They are both obsessed with UGA football.”
You obviously have not been reading this blog. It’s mostly Dog sidewalkers thumping their chest. I don’t care what goes on with UGA. I do hope all goes well for you except this weekend. You guys should really FOCUS on BAMA!
5Dogs
November 19th, 2012
7:16 pm
relax–Dogs roll, win by 20+. Gurley and marshall will run all over that terrible D. Dogs 38 Tech 13—bank on it.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
7:18 pm
MT, Tech fans will always send back tickets. It’s expensive to go to a game in Athens. Four new tires and a new paint job add up to major dollars and you guys never set up a fund to reimburse opposing fans for the vandalism. Add to that drunken fools threatening to beat up children and the constant feeling that your life is in danger make going to Athens the WORST football experience in the Southeastern US if not the whole country. You guys built that. Good job!
TheSaint
November 19th, 2012
7:18 pm
GT is ranked #88 in pass defense.
Aaron Murray is ranked #1 in passer efficiency. In the nation.
The only question is:
How many yards will Murray throw for and how many passing td’s will Murray lay on GT?
TheSaint
November 19th, 2012
7:19 pm
Just sell out against the option, TECH CAN’T THROW, AND THEY DON’T PRACTICE PASSING.
Gorilla Biscuit
November 19th, 2012
7:25 pm
Dawgz win. Not a game by the 4th quarter.
Atlantarob17
November 19th, 2012
7:25 pm
Lets remember fellas UGA has beaten ALA 3 of the last 4 games!
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
7:26 pm
Exactly Mr.Saint! Plus you’ve BAMA coming up!
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
7:27 pm
That’s what I’m saying Atlantarob17. Please get the message to Richt and the team.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
7:31 pm
Gorilla kibble, I assume you mean ALABAMA? You guys have already beat Tech. I realize you don’t play for UGA but the bravado is so strong it’s almost like a lay of musty nicotine smoke. You guys are tough!
MT
November 19th, 2012
7:31 pm
Toady (no longer reformed)
Sounds like my last trip to Atlanta. Tell us again how safe Tech’s campus is.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
7:38 pm
I usually park in a safe spot. Now I’m sorry, it does cost twenty bucks but I can swing it. I can pay over twenty bucks to park in a “safe spot” in Athens but it always turns out not so safe. The security guard (sic) said it was safe but he lied. Never had an issue in Atlanta but I practice safety. Never seen anyone yell obscenities at children while at BDS. Wish I could say the same at Stalin Stadium.
The panhandlers are bad in Atlanta but no more than the ones in Athens. How are the libraries in Athens these days?
RT
November 19th, 2012
7:40 pm
I expect a hard fought close game that will surprise some. Records are not nearly as important in in state rivalry games. Turnovers will be the key for GT ie: UGA will need some TOs and GT needs to hang on to the ball and control as much time as possible. If Georgia gets a two touch down lead it will be very difficult if not impossible for GT to overcome. Georgia is just too talented to give them too many offensive opportunities. I just don’t know if Georgia will be focused or looking ahead, they are playing for a chance to play for the MNC which could put a lot of pressure on them in a close game. I am a DAWG fan but I have a strange feeling about this game. Go Dawgs
MT
November 19th, 2012
7:44 pm
How are the libraries in Athens these days?
Relevence to football? Remember highly reguarded bastions of academics such as Stanford
can also field top rated football programs. To answer your question though, good enough to produce
a few Rhodes scholars.
Buzz 2011
November 19th, 2012
7:47 pm
Triple option.. Faster, stronger than GaSouthern…Georgia may very well
win, but they better leave a lot of points on the Clarke County scoreboard!!
Maybe it will be easy for the Dogs, as they have referred to CPJ offense as “high school”y
Rabbit
November 19th, 2012
7:48 pm
That’s some mighty fine pickin’ you did back in the Summer, Mr. Bradley.
Tech worries me, but if we get past them and right team shows in Atlanta, “this is not Shreveport, this is Miami.”
Gameday
November 19th, 2012
7:53 pm
MT
UGA has intelligent people? Is that your attempt at humor? You are clearly not very intelligent. Your earlier post about Texas A&M not being good and referencing the fact that Florida beat A&M and UGA beat Florida? That isn’t the way football works little buddy. Kinda the way that UGA should have won against SC because Florida beat SC and UGA beat Florida. You’re the king of fools. Do everyone a favor and go to sleep, I’m sure all this reading is hurting your head.
Gorilla Biscuit
November 19th, 2012
7:53 pm
Toady, Alabama may take us to overtime.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
7:54 pm
Oh, I forgot…getting completely drunk and obnoxious is not part of my game day experience. I just like to watch the game. Maybe have a coke and a hotdog/peanuts. I’ve never been able to get them “free” like you people refer to all the time. It cost about as much as parking in Athens. Maybe it’s something to get you people to BDS. I’m not sure. You people seem to be scared of the big city. That’s alright, I understand. Too many big roads and street lights. I understand that you people think violent crime is funny? That’s sad. I find it reprehensible but I guess that’s just me. I would suppose that UGA ball player that threatened to beat up a girl with a baseball bat was a real knee slapper for you people. It sure is strange what happens to you people out there. Maybe you were already like that? It’s hard to say but I’ll keep hoping for the better part of your souls. Good luck and try not to beat anybody up or get thrown in jail.
BOY THAT DAWG IS UGLY
November 19th, 2012
7:55 pm
Here’s the facts Dawgies. Your only national championship ring is either sold on-line or tarnessed. Tech has 4, Bama has 14, LSU 3, Gators 3, Vols 6, Auburn 2. At your current rate you will reach Tech’s 4 …… NEVER!
Delbert D.
November 19th, 2012
7:57 pm
I don’t think I’ll offer an opinion. The game is going to be played in 4 days, and I can’t affect the outcome at all.
BgTimeTECHFan
November 19th, 2012
7:59 pm
hey
K
November 19th, 2012
8:02 pm
There sure are some mighty big BLOWHARDS on this blog.
Are you UGA fans really that stupid or just sound stupid?
TOO HELL WITH GEORGIA!!!!!!!!!!!
Keep fueling the fire!!!!
Wal-Mart Retards
November 19th, 2012
8:03 pm
UGA and Tech grads have something in common – toilets! We use them, they clean them for us and then go home to the outhouse.
Gorilla Biscuit
November 19th, 2012
8:05 pm
Mission Accomplished. ^^^
South Georgia Guy
November 19th, 2012
8:05 pm
It is a crying shame the Jacket nation did not care enough about their team, to purchase the Ga Tech
allotment of tickets. This speaks volumes of how faithful the yellow people are.
Gorilla Biscuit
November 19th, 2012
8:06 pm
Maybe you guys could get a Prius caravan going over to Athens. If you can call 2 a caravan.
ylojkt
November 19th, 2012
8:14 pm
If Tech wins this, Sunday’s gonna be so much fun. I’ll fill up the tank on Saturday just so I can drive around 285 with my Tech flags flying all day!
Vad will be the new Goose!
Wal-Mart Retards
November 19th, 2012
8:16 pm
Knowshon (omg) – don’t diss your mama like that. She’s not THAT bad!
South Georgia Guy
November 19th, 2012
8:17 pm
Has anyone ever met a normal Tech fan? I have been around them for 40 years, and have yet to find one. Not one.
Italian_29
November 19th, 2012
8:19 pm
Tarnessed, that Tech education is serving you well. Just so you don’t have to look it up, it is spelled, tarnished, BOY THAT DAWG IS UGLY.
E
November 19th, 2012
8:20 pm
I would trade a loss to Tech and losing out on a chance to play for the MNC for a win over the fighting Finebaums.
quick fix
November 19th, 2012
8:29 pm
so, are the dogs not going to dress out their punter?
BigJim
November 19th, 2012
8:30 pm
Big wins like Saturday’s Georgia Bulldogs win over DIV II GA Southern get you noticed…by the Capital One Bowl. That’s why Georgia plays there (or the Outback Bowl) ever single bowl season (except for 2010 when Central Florida beat the Dawgs in the Liberty Bowl)…because Mark Richt can’t beat ranked teams!!! Richt is 3-15 against ranks opponents, since 2009! So….don’t hold your breath against Alabama!!!!!!!
Steve
November 19th, 2012
8:31 pm
UGA vs. Tech in Athens, Tech can’t sell it’s allotment of tickets. UGA vs. Tech in Atlanta, half of the stadium is red. Gotta love it. Worst fans in college football. What really makes me laugh is how every year, they come on these blogs acting like they own UGA and keep saying how they are going to win. Then, when they lose, out come the excuses! Enjoy ending up 6-8 after your little bowl game that will be attended by maybe 10,000 people.