Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
Discount DoubleDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:27 pm
Good post Gus… A well thought out post from a real Tech fan is always welcome. The only thing I may disagree with a little bit is that I think Tech can and should be better than they are. Will they ever be ‘world beaters’? Maybe not… But in this state, there is no good excuse to not recruit better than Tech does. I know what the excuses are, I just don’t think they are good ones.
masivatack
November 19th, 2012
4:27 pm
2012 Coastal Division Champion: Georgia Tech*
Too bad for MTSU they aren’t in the ACC-C.
Rock_Eagle
November 19th, 2012
4:29 pm
Tech will get their yards and a good many points. Tech’s defense has actually improved some since firing Groh. They were terrible,… now they are just really bad. I wish the Jackets could pull out a win, but don’t see them slowing down the UGA offense at all. Both will get their a$$es handed to them on a platter next week anyway. Tech backed into the ACCCG on a fluke. UGA has played one team of any real substance and got pounded by them. Florida is overrated. Yeah, they got USC pretty good, but the Chickens were spent after their trip to the Bayou. Watch how the Noles smack the Gators…… Saban’s club got caught napping. That won’t be happening in the SECCG.
Here we go
November 19th, 2012
4:29 pm
Dawgs will hold the bugs under 300 yds.in total offense.UGA will win 52 to 14. If we come out of this game with no injuries,look out Bama we are coming to make a statement to everyone across this country. Let the talking heads keep building up Bama and Notre Dame,we will show them.
masivatack
November 19th, 2012
4:30 pm
Ole Miss Gave ‘Bama a better game than GT gave Middle Tennessee. L.O.L.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
4:30 pm
Who evaluated and signed those terrible recruits Bob? Was it a coach?
The same guy who had no idea how to coach them. I am not arguing that our defensive coaching has been terrible. It has. That is why he was fired. I was arguing that it doesn’t really matter who the coaches are, UGA will always recruit well and GT will always recruit poorly.
Tide Rolls
November 19th, 2012
4:31 pm
Don’t matter who wins because Alabama will absolutely DESTROY the pathetic, overrated Bulldogs who played NO ONE worth a crap this year.
ROLL TIDE!
After further review
November 19th, 2012
4:31 pm
Will the incentive of being able to knock their biggest rivals out of national championship contention be enough to motivate Tech to win the game? Only time will tell. I don’t have a fan’s interest one way or the other.
Personally, my alma mater will be playing in the playoffs in a different division altogether, having won their first-round matchup last week. While I realize the competition level is not the same, I can say that we have been far more dominant than either of the local powerhouses, having won our conference title outright for three consecutive years, and five out of the last six. By the way, we also had three consecutive shutouts in the middle of the season.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:32 pm
Tevin Washington? LMAO
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
4:32 pm
They are SCARED of UGA and so are the players.
Scared? More like apathetic. Most GT fans I know are barely even acknowledging the game at this point.
Elmer Fudd
November 19th, 2012
4:35 pm
I hate to say it Gus but 1990 is more recent that 1980 but I’ll take a unanimous national championship over one split with Colorado any day of the week..
Dang right. They didn’t even win the AP poll. They won the UPI poll ( now defunct ) by one vote
Dubious at best.
Seriously
November 19th, 2012
4:35 pm
As a Tech fan, I would agree with his score UGA 38 GT 24….. our defense would have to get many breaks including turnovers to win and that won’t happen. Our offense should be able to score, but not enough to keep up with A Murray’s arm. I’m just being realistic that UGA should win by 10. I wish it were different but GT’s D is just not where it needs to be….
Elmer Fudd
November 19th, 2012
4:36 pm
Scared? More like apathetic. Most GT fans I know are barely even acknowledging the game at this point.
Frankly….thats worse.
bruce mac
November 19th, 2012
4:36 pm
You poor misguided nerds. Ye of the Gold and White and Blue and cammo and off White and pewter and all the other ugly colors in the rainbow. This ain’t Duke or Maryland with a linebacker at QB. This is the mother lovin hunkerin down Georgia Friggin Bulldawgs. Put your women and children in the closet and prepare for your annual ars whoppin Saturday. Dig it?
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:36 pm
Tech might not even make a bowl game this year at 6-7. They’ll have to get a waiver like UCLA did last year with a 6-7 record. They won’t beat UGA or Florida State so that’ll likely be the case.
GT Gus from marietta
November 19th, 2012
4:37 pm
@Rick James
You can call it a split national championship if you want. But Tech was clearly the superior team that year and would have pounded the Bufs. They needed a gift of a 5th down to score a crucial TD and to stay undefeated. That game was really a loss that the refs handed to them. They failed to score the winning TD on 4th down and the refs gave them a fifth. I wish we had played them instead of the very strong Nebraska team we played down in FL. We would have put 50 on Colorado, just like we were doing to everyone else that year. Go back and look at how many we laid on the Dawgs that year….
reality
November 19th, 2012
4:39 pm
I am a Tech fan, but I see the Dogs winning easily…and then FSU putting it to the Jackets anemic defense the following week. Then Tech stumbles into a lower tier bowl with a 6-7 record and CPJ continues his bowl losing streak.
62-39-5 Dawgs vs the Joke by Coke
November 19th, 2012
4:40 pm
Why is it a school like Tech that has been playing football since the 1800’s hasn’t enlarged its stadium,(actually decreased in it size) and is basically playing a step above div 2 FCS level?
@UGA fans delusional.. Again
how about this for reality: 10 of the last 11 and 62-39-5 overall, Go Dawgs!
aiouaw98
November 19th, 2012
4:41 pm
Simple answer: No, Tech cannot ruin a damn thing. Even if Tech beats UGA, the Dawgs are still SEC East Champions and will still play for the SEC Championship….
Nothing ruined about that !!
Old Dawg
November 19th, 2012
4:41 pm
Based on what I seen of Tech’s defense, Murray will have another record day and the running backs should do well. Tech’s offense is always a problem, but they really don’t have the athletes to compete throughout four quarters.
Can the Jackets beat UGA? Sure, but a lot of things have to fall into place for that to happen.
I just don’t see them meeting the challenge!
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:42 pm
Name an impact player on Tech’s defense…….
DIT
November 19th, 2012
4:43 pm
Sure I hope Dawgs win this Saturday, but I will be a huge Jacket fan during the ACC CG. I would love to see them pull it off!
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
4:43 pm
Frankly….thats worse.
It is what it is. Every year there is about a 5% chance that we win. After several years of that you tend to stop caring.
GT Pus from marietta
November 19th, 2012
4:43 pm
oh yea your right, Rick, we did only win half of it…. sorry spoke to soon….
Coach Z
November 19th, 2012
4:43 pm
Just because this still burns me, even worse when it’s brought up, BUT at least GT didn’t need 5 downs to win a game during that 1990 season.
Ali
November 19th, 2012
4:43 pm
UGA defense is SOFT !!!!!!!!!!!
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
4:45 pm
@GTBob
The same guy who had no idea how to coach them. I am not arguing that our defensive coaching has been terrible. It has. That is why he was fired. I was arguing that it doesn’t really matter who the coaches are, UGA will always recruit well and GT will always recruit poorly.
—————————————————————————————————————————–
But part of your agument was that if Tech and Georgia switched coaches things would stay the same at the two schools because the coach plays such a small part of the process.My argument is that statement is hogwash.Georgia is ahead of Tech because of superior recruiting which he would bring to Tech.Paul Johnson is not a good recruiter at that would apply no matter where he coaches.When a kid decides he wants to be in the navy there’s not much recruiting involved so dont try that one.Georgia Southern gets kids that the larger schools wont take so do try that on either..So now its your turn to hide behind the Tech academics..
RLM
November 19th, 2012
4:46 pm
Right and the Saints can’t beat the Falcons. Tech is a well known spoiler.
Elmer Fudd
November 19th, 2012
4:47 pm
They needed a gift of a 5th down to score a crucial TD and to stay undefeated.
Tech got a few gifts that year.
An ACC schedule being the biggest.
Coach Z
November 19th, 2012
4:48 pm
Seems like ruining a national championship dream is enough motivation for the Jackets to play in this one.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
4:49 pm
Georgia is ahead of Tech because of superior recruiting which he would bring to Tech
You are completely insane if you think Richt could recruit as well at GT as he does at UGA. He wouldn’t have a single class in the top 20 and I doubt he would ever win more than 5 games at Tech.
62-39-5 Dawgs vs the Joke by Coke
November 19th, 2012
4:49 pm
Tide Rolls
Yeah, and who did the Gumps play that was all that great? Michigan? Ha Ha.
I hope your poor dismal ESPN over promoted team shows up in Atlanta thinking the Dawgs
are a push over. Ya’ll can go on and play in the CAP ONE BOWL. Maybe ya’ll can send Spurrier a ticket since he thinks can beat a NFL TEAM. LOL. LOL
GeoffDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:49 pm
Gus, if tech was clearly the superior team that year, then why did they need a last second field goal from Scott Sisson to end up tying a terrible UNC team? You then got to play 17th ranked Nebraska for the “national championship”. Don’t act like you didn’t catch your breaks also.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
4:50 pm
Reading these comments make me laugh. I’m surprised the line is only 14 in favor of UGA.
Tech will need their best game of the year to have a chance. Try and keep the offense on the field as much as possible. Hit some passes to pull back the safeties. I’m sure there will be a couple of trick plays. I hope they are successful. Use up as much clock as possible. Keep it close going into the fourth quarter and Tech has a fighter’s chance.
If UGA opens up a two score lead it’ll be pretty much over.
Those that discredit Tech’s 1990 MNC should research it. Colorado received many favors. I’ll just go with what Tom Osborne said. Paraphrasing: We played Colorado and Georgia Tech. Tech is the better team. But then again what does he know? Right dogs?
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:51 pm
Tech will finish the year 6-8
Elmer Fudd
November 19th, 2012
4:52 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1990_upi_cropped.jpg
That is the trophy Tech got.
NOT the AP National Championship which is considered the standard.
Tech counts Championships sort of like Alabama does.
GT Dude
November 19th, 2012
4:53 pm
Hate to say it, but have to agree that if these teams played 10 times, this Tech team would beat this UGA team once, maybe twice.
Just hope that this weekend is the once!
GO TECH!
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 19th, 2012
4:54 pm
UVA was #1 in the national when we beat them in 1990. Geez
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:54 pm
How ironic that Tech and UGA always play around Thanksgiving. Tech’s coach even looks like a turkey!
GTracy
November 19th, 2012
4:54 pm
@fingerbang You are clearly a troll or more than that a total class A jerk-off. Most definitely a UGA fan. I know the difference between the SEC and the ACC. I’m a GT alum you dumb-butt. Don’t call me a sweetheart you leg humper. People like you are the reason I consider UGA fans obnoxious jerks. Why don’t you ask me something about football or you can continue to patronize me.
RAMBLE ON!!!
November 19th, 2012
4:55 pm
GT 68 UGA 50.
GT Gus from marietta
November 19th, 2012
4:57 pm
@ GeoffDawg
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:58 pm
3 more wins for UGA and they’re national champs.
Elmer Fudd
November 19th, 2012
4:58 pm
I’ll just go with what Tom Osborne said. Paraphrasing: We played Colorado and Georgia Tech. Tech is the better team. But then again what does he know? Right dogs?
Right.
Cant find a quote anywhere from Osborne on that. Link please.
Osborne did have a vote in the UPI poll and voted for Tech.
You dont think he just might have wanted to keep Colorado from winning do you ? Being in the same conference and all.
I did find the following on a message board which I think more accurately reflects the situation.
1990 Colorado vs. Georgia Tech. This way Tom Osborne couldn’t vote for Georgia Tech as number one in the final coaches poll and abandon his Big 8 brothers. Does anyone remember anything about this Georgia Tech team? They’re maybe the least known national champions in college football history.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:59 pm
Awwww GTracy we didn’t mean to hurt your feelings baby. If you wanna cry, go get a tissue and come back after you whipe all your teams away.
ATLWmn
November 19th, 2012
4:59 pm
Oh, @TechFalcon fan, you’re right, UGA hasn’t played much of anybody. But then again, Middle Tennessee isn’t much of anybody either, right? At least we beat our cupcakes. Bulldogs by two touchdowns, though the bees will give a fight on offense.
And btw, the redneck insult is trite. UGA has become an elite public university featuring some of the country’s top programs. The average fan has never set foot on campus, so enlighten yourself before making generalizations and stick to basketball.
GT Gus from marietta
November 19th, 2012
4:59 pm
@GeoffDawg
We beat at least 4 ranked teams that year, including the No. 1 team at the time. In addition to that, we beat the Hokies of VT and beat the daylights out of UGA. That was no easy schedule. We only played two SEC teams that year (beat them both)…
BOY THAT DAWG IS UGLY
November 19th, 2012
5:01 pm
I’ve learned that in FBS anything is possible. Maybe not probable but possible. Dawgs struggled against Kentucky and opposing FBS teams winning percentage minus Gators (who beat ULL by 7) and Gamecocks (who dismantled Dawgs) is a little more than 30%. Baylor over Kansas State, Central Florida over Dawgs in Liberty. Point is that all bets are off.
it is what it is
November 19th, 2012
5:02 pm
one thing you forgot to mention Mark is UGA’s schedule in 08 that included Bama. This year, they didn’t play much of anybody. It is the same team. GT has a chance.
GeoffDawg
November 19th, 2012
5:02 pm
I don’t deny that they beat a pretty mediocre Georgia team that year handily. I also remember that the #1 Virginia team that you beat completely fell off the map the second half of the season. Tech had a very good team in 1990. However, I don’t agree with your assertion that they were clearly better than Colorado.