Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
UGA Fan
November 19th, 2012
4:01 pm
“You’re a gnat on our schedule.” –If Tech is a nat on the UGA schedule then all of the SEC teams on the schedule are microsopic rotavirus reconstructiongrahamc.
GeoffDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:01 pm
Not to ignore the idiocy of blaming approximately half your losses on the refs but the last ten years worth of games wouldn’t produce a 6-5 or 5-6 record unless we played tech in a bowl game I’ve forgotten about.
St Simons
November 19th, 2012
4:01 pm
anything’s possible i guess, brave sir robins
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:03 pm
EVERY YEAR Tech fans claim that this is the year they’ll beat UGA. They said it last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, etc. It’s getting old. Beating Tech is normal.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
4:03 pm
I would not say Auburn is better than tech this year, but Ole Miss, yes.
Based on what? Their best win was against Arkansas. A team La Monroe beat.
Mike S.
November 19th, 2012
4:04 pm
Its hard to say what Auburn or Ole Miss would do to Tech. Fact is MTSU and BYU arent really any better and blew us out here at home. Auburn also was a play or two away from beating Clemson. UT hasnt won an SEC game, just fired their coach, but blew the doors off NC St. Also, UGA is heated and recent rival. That will give Tech an edge to play with they wouldnt have against other SEC schools. I think the game could be closer than people think. My one concern is the fact that overall UGA is by far the best team on Tech’s schedule. Tech has seen nothing like their athletes on either side of the ball since last year’s game. Maybe Clemson’s offense, but nothing close on defense.
How bout them BEES!
November 19th, 2012
4:04 pm
UGA better get the ankle tape ready. Tech will cut block you guys to death. Saban is licking his chops, and may have a bounty out on some ankles.
AntoineFord
November 19th, 2012
4:05 pm
I was at Williams Brice this year and, let me tell ya, the one thing UGA always lacks is toughness. We beat them worse than I’ve seen anybody beat ‘em, and that’s because it’s easy to break their spirit.
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
4:05 pm
@GTBob
Oh give me a break. If UGA and GT swapped coaches then UGA would still be in the top 10 every year in recruiting rankings and GT would still be scrapping to make the top 40. Coaches have little to do with it.
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What an insane remark Bob..Paul Johnson cant recruit flies to a picnic.Georgia would be where Kentucky is in the SEC and Richt would have Tech in the top tier of the ACC in two years..If coaching has nothing to do with it why did Al Groh lose his job?
skeptic
November 19th, 2012
4:05 pm
Refs have most certainly given uga a big advantage on more than one occasion.
Dirty Dawg
November 19th, 2012
4:06 pm
Thanks Mark for posting this. I was afraid that we were gonna forget that ‘Clean, Old-fashioned, Hate’ (thank you Bill Cromartie) meant hatin’ the hell outta Tech. Like my Daddy and Grandaddy taught me, ‘I ain’t prejudiced…I don’t care who beats Tech.’…next up is us.
GeoffDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:06 pm
Ole Miss is probably better than tech this year but certainly not Auburn. Their team is a horror show.
dood
November 19th, 2012
4:06 pm
UGA may win this, but then they have to go back to work in the parking lot to get our cars.
TRUE Dawg Fan
November 19th, 2012
4:06 pm
I love UGA football and have been a fan since I flunked out of 10th grade, but I have a really bad feeling my Dawgs aint gonna pull this one off. The players hate us fans because we always support other teams in home games.
Tree
November 19th, 2012
4:07 pm
Little Napoleons 10
Dawgs 27
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:07 pm
Georgia’s defense was cut blocked last week. Nothing new. Georgia Southern actually runs the option better than Tech does and we succeeded holding them to 14. 7 against the backups. So I don’t wanna hear how Tech’s cut blocking will affefct UGA. It won’t. We’ve practiced already.
Mike S.
November 19th, 2012
4:08 pm
To be honest, if Tech wins, what does that mean? The season was still yet another exercise in futility under Johnson in an ACC that gets and really deserves no respect. I’m torn because I truly think we need a different direction, but I’m afraid everyone will latch onto the win like fool’s gold just like in 2008. Especially if FSU whips us and God forbid we get a Chik Fil A bowl bid likely against South Carolina. That would be a fire hose to the face just like LSU in 2008.
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
4:08 pm
Better than the nerds: Bama, UGA, FLA, S. Carolina, Miss. St, Ole Miss, Vandy Texas A & M, Missouri, and arguably Auburn and Tenn. They both have more talent and would likely win.
skeptic
November 19th, 2012
4:08 pm
Comparing what happened between teams on August 30th or how teams played then to today is such folly. Comparing that one team beat another so we could beat them is also stupid. Anything can happen on a Saturday. If the refs don’t hand uga a bogus chop block gift against gsu, then they likely go into the game with a 14-10 lead at halftime. Calls like that change the momo all the time and it happens a lot in the ga gt rivalry. Stinks when the refs help dictate who will win.
GTracy
November 19th, 2012
4:09 pm
Let’s be a little realistic here. Auburn is pathetic and would not beat Tech this year. Matter of fact, GT has beaten Auburn the last 2 times they played when Auburn was ranked.
Georgia’s wins haven’t impressed me this year. Their schedule is weak, but you can only win the schedule you’re given and they have.
Think GT plays with nothing to lose and keeps it close. Doubt they pull out a win with such a terrible defense, but there’s always hope. And I’ll be a fan come Sunday no matter what.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:09 pm
And after we smoke Tech on Saturday, they’ll morph into Alabama “fans” pretending to be fans of Alabama on these boards no longer being able to claim Tech as their school. As usual, they’ll hide behind another team’s name. It’s sad really.
Discount DoubleDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:09 pm
The good news is that we will find out Saturday just how these 2 teams stack up… From all the trash talking Tech fans it seems the teams must be evenly matched or maybe Tech is even better. If the last 10 yrs is any indication I think UGA has done ok with Tech, and yes I know, that is not saying much. Again, it will play out Saturday and I am looking forward it.
In all honesty, if we are really going to call this a rivalry game based on anything other than the location of the schools, I would be happy. I would prefer a more competitive match-up…
JB
November 19th, 2012
4:10 pm
First half. Dawgs 21-Tech 17…..Final Dawgs 48….Tech 31
AntoineFord
November 19th, 2012
4:10 pm
I was at Williams Brice this year and, let me tell ya, the one thing UGA always lacks is toughness. We beat them worse than I’ve seen anybody beat ‘em, and that’s because it’s easy to break their spirit.
GeoffDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:10 pm
GTBob, it matters less who Ole Miss has beaten than it does who’s beaten tech. Neither one has a lot of quality wins but tech has more embarrassing losses.
TRUE Dawg Fan
November 19th, 2012
4:10 pm
To be honest, if UGA wins, what does that mean? The season was still yet another exercise in futility under Coach Richt in an SEC that gets and really deserves no respect.
come on
November 19th, 2012
4:12 pm
So I think ugag beats us this week but they lose to Bama next week and Bama wins the NC. My question is are all you UGA(sic) fans going to continuely beat your chests about another SEC team, not UGA(sic), winning the NC. Maybe you can put it together and actually do it, but more than likely you will still be riding the SEC coattails.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
4:12 pm
If coaching has nothing to do with it why did Al Groh lose his job?
Because we were giving up 40 points and 500 yards a game. Even with a group of terrible recruits you should do better than that.
another game
November 19th, 2012
4:12 pm
And after we smoke UGA on Saturday, they’ll morph into Florida State “fans” pretending to be fans of FSU on these boards no longer being able to claim UGA as their school. As usual, they’ll hide behind another team’s name. It’s sad really.
92AdDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:12 pm
Jacket Man- I’m with you- best of both worlds! I’m a UGA grad myself but have always pulled for Tech against anyone but UGA. And I’ll be doing the same against FSU… Most of the haters on here never went to either school- much less graduated. We’ve got Tech and UGA grads in my family- it’s a great rivalry- can’t wait for Saturday!
air of mendacity
November 19th, 2012
4:13 pm
Predicting here Dawgs will look like hell for 2 quarters at least will Tech runs through and over them. Then talent wins out and the dawgs D starts playing the pitch man and Tech can’t score anymore. Dawgs win 38- 24.
air of mendacity
November 19th, 2012
4:14 pm
while – not will
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:14 pm
As long as Jarvis Jones eyes the QB and we have a safety come down and take the pitch man, Tech offense will go nowhere.
MountainDawg
November 19th, 2012
4:15 pm
Not likely but they better not overlook the jackets.
GTBobsucksthecob
November 19th, 2012
4:15 pm
We almost beat Middle Tennessee State, that should count for something…
ramblingbuzz
November 19th, 2012
4:16 pm
One sure way to get plenty of blog hits…………..write a piece about the GT & UGA game, The clean old fashioned hate just naturally bubbles to the surface. Kind of like the Hatfields and McCoys.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:17 pm
And after we smoke Tech on Saturday, they’ll morph into Alabama “fans” pretending to be fans of Alabama on these boards no longer being able to claim Tech as their school. As usual, they’ll hide behind another team’s name. It’s sad really.
trueblueeagle
November 19th, 2012
4:17 pm
If UGA gong to the NC better do this year lose to much to NFL next year 7-6
DawgForever
November 19th, 2012
4:18 pm
Even Tech students don’t believe Tech is going to win this game, as evidenced by the 1900 returned Tech tickets.
http://atlanta.sbnation.com/georgia-ncaaf/2012/10/24/3548036/georgia-football-tickets-georgia-tech-georgia-southern
Slayer
November 19th, 2012
4:18 pm
Craven Morehead Dawgs are taking no prisoners and everyone is afraid to play us now as we are by far the best team in the nation! Just wait and see!
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
4:19 pm
No, we don’t think we are going to win the game.
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
4:19 pm
Its highly possible for Georgia for to score 50 points on Tech’s defense if they can stay on the field.It is highly unlikely that Tech’s offense will score 51 points on Georgia’s defense.Georgia is at home,its senior day and they have a chance to beat an in state rival who is also the the ACC Coastal division champion.I think there is too much at stake here to look past Tech…Georgia wins!!
GT Gus from marietta
November 19th, 2012
4:20 pm
Seen way too many GT v UGA games (all the home games since 76 and some of the ones in Athens) and the sad story is that UGA almost always beats us. We don’t compete for the best athletes in recruiting anymore and it shows up huge in this game. Georgia usually wins because it has the better team, loaded with much better talent, year in and year out. Sometimes, an inferior GT team will beat a more gifted UGA team. But not very often. The victories over the hated Mutts since 1976 (my first of this series, a heartbreaking loss in Athens) have been few and far between.
The old-timers remember the days when it was the other way around, when GT ruled this state and much of college football. But the rise of the NFL has put an end to that. Most superstar HS players, who are thinking they might have a realistic shot at the big money in the NFL, don’t want to be bothered with a school like GT. They mostly would prefer to go to a school that allows them to focus more on football and less on calculus. So unless the NFL goes away, we “nerds” will never again experience the sort of dominance that our prior generations of GT fans enjoyed. This is the new reality and there is little chance it will reverse itself.
My major consolation is that UGA has fewer National Championships and Tech even has one (1990) more recently that UGA’s. It is not much consolation, but it is all I have left…
Westdawg
November 19th, 2012
4:20 pm
Keep stirring that pot MB…that’s why you’re employed by the AJC -right?
Seriously, if NC scored 50 on GT’s “defense”,how much can UGA score if they play an above average game?
I think 50+, but only if GT scores at least 21…otherwise Richt takes the peddle off the gas.
52-21 DAWGS
List Mama » Can Tech ruin UGA’s season? It’s possible. But probable? – Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)
November 19th, 2012
4:21 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
4:23 pm
@GTBob
Because we were giving up 40 points and 500 yards a game. Even with a group of terrible recruits you should do better than that.
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Who evaluated and signed those terrible recruits Bob? Was it a coach?
Stinger 2
November 19th, 2012
4:24 pm
Charles: What is sad is you. If you can`t make a more meaningful comment than your @4:17, you would be smarter to say nothing.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
4:25 pm
Deep down on the inside, Tech fans and students alike don’t believe they are going to win this game. They are SCARED of UGA and so are the players. It’s in their heads that they can’t compete with UGA. They say all the right things but they just can’t play with UGA.
GTracy
November 19th, 2012
4:26 pm
“GTracy is a female for sure. Knows nothing about college football. It’s cute that she comments several times but sad at the same time.”
Dang straight I’m a female. Isn’t that just cute? I’m a GT alum from ‘06 and I’ve been following college football since I was 5 when my brother played on the 1990 GT national championship team. I’ll put my football “smarts” up against your misogynistic comments any day.
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
4:26 pm
@GT Gus from marietta
My major consolation is that UGA has fewer National Championships and Tech even has one (1990) more recently that UGA’s. It is not much consolation, but it is all I have left…
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I hate to say it Gus but 1990 is more recent that 1980 but I’ll take a unanimous national championship over one split with Colorado any day of the week..