Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
Craven Morehead
November 19th, 2012
3:40 pm
What a bunch of idiots. After the South Carolina beatdown, everybody here was calling for Richt’s head. Now, he’s The BEAR!
DIT
November 19th, 2012
3:40 pm
Throw records out the window Saturday. tech is very capable of beating the Dawgs. If the Dawgs come out like the Kentucky game(thinking about Florida) Tech WILL win. If they come out focused like the Florida game, then Dawgs win.
After this past weekend I would not be surprised to see tech play their finest game this year.
Hankie Aron
November 19th, 2012
3:40 pm
GT Alum 98-If it wasnt for the refs over the last ten years the Tech UGA record would be something like 6-5 or 5-6.
Congrat’s, you’ve won the dumbest comment on the blog award today. Let’s see what youv’e won! A 31-10 beatdown come high noon Saturday. Tip your waitresses.
Billy Clyde Puckett
November 19th, 2012
3:41 pm
Look at UGA’s wins. With the exception of Florida, they’ve beaten lots of crummy teams. In the SEC, their wins have come against teams in the bottom half of their respective divisions. (Except Florida.) They’ve only played two high quality opponents, and they lost one and won one. The Dawgs are nothing to brag about.
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
3:41 pm
Ole Miss had a pretty good offense, make no mistake. As someone just mentioned, they put up 35 points on LSU. It says something that the dawgs could hold them to 10 points. The defense may not be dominant, but it’s not logical to suggest that they are the same defense that struggled with UT and Kentucky.
UGA won't have a chance.... sorry
November 19th, 2012
3:42 pm
UGA won’t have a chance…. sorry. UGA will not be prepared. They have played nothing but easy games all season being that they are from the the SEC and will not be prepared for other College Football teams… I do think UGA will beat Alabama because as we can all agree, Bama is very overrated. UGA can win in the SEC but I think they will have tropuble against other teams
Gordon
November 19th, 2012
3:43 pm
Our defense just isn’t good enough. UGA 45, Tech 24.
Tndawg
November 19th, 2012
3:43 pm
I am thinking that any fan of a team that loses handily to Middle Tennessee State ought to just shut up their trash talking.
UGA won't have a chance.... sorry
November 19th, 2012
3:44 pm
If it wasnt for the refs over the last ten years the Tech UGA record would be something like 6-5 or 5-6…. This is what UGA fans hate. The fact that when UGA beats Tech that they barely win.
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
3:45 pm
Billy Clyde, we have not played a schedule of world beaters by any means. But we did beat Florida and beat a much-improved Vanderbilt team. The main thing is not beating bad opponents, but how much we beat those teams by. Ole Miss by 27, Auburn by 38. We didn’t get lucky, we just won because clearly we were better.
Hankie Aron
November 19th, 2012
3:45 pm
Billy Clyde Puckett- #3 in the BCS is something to brag about. And again UGA has no control over their conference schedule. Please contact Mike Slive if you would like to complain further about UGA’s schedule. Ok?
Reebok
November 19th, 2012
3:45 pm
Sigh. And I had such high hopes for this conversation.
UGA won't have a chance.... sorry
November 19th, 2012
3:46 pm
“This is what UGA fans hate. The fact that when UGA beats Tech that they barely win.”… Oh, and also I’m a Dawg Fan. I have always been one and have gone to almost every home game for about 15 years. I don’t think UGA is that good this year. I think we will have to count on the refs like we do every year. :/
GT Joe
November 19th, 2012
3:46 pm
The only good team UGA beat? FL, gave you 6 turnovers and still almost won.
Tech 85-20
DIT
November 19th, 2012
3:46 pm
Say what you want about tech loss to MTS, They have regrouped. PJ should have turned the reigns over Vlad 3 games before. Tech has nothing to lose coming into this game and UGA has everything to lose. Should be a good game.
Hankie Aron
November 19th, 2012
3:46 pm
Tndawg- Not when they are more obsessed with all things UGA than a lot of UGA fans. You know?
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:47 pm
Ole Miss put up 35 on LSU! LSU! LSU has a top 5 defense in the nation. And Georgia held them to 10. Holding any team to 10 points is great defense. Tech can’t hold anybody under 30 and that’s why they’ll lose.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:48 pm
Tech’s mantra this week is that “UGA has everything to lose”. Exactly. Which is why they won’t. We had everything to lose vs. Auburn and Ole Miss too but look how that turned out. Auburn and Ole Miss are much better than Tech and we held both teams to a combined 10 points. Tech will get their yards because they are built to get yardage, but they won’t score much.
Goldenrod
November 19th, 2012
3:48 pm
“Tech can’t hold anybody under 30 and that’s why they’ll lose.”
You haven’t seen our defense that played against Duke! We dominated!
UGA won't have a chance.... sorry
November 19th, 2012
3:50 pm
“I am thinking that any fan of a team that loses handily to Middle Tennessee State ought to just shut up their trash talking.” -Do you really think UGA will do better than Middle Tennessee State against Tech? Seriously? …Middle Tennessee State is not from the SEC. Middle Tennessee Stat is a much higher caliber team than UGA, they come from a better conference than UGA does and I would expect Middle Tennessee State to have a better final score than UGA. Anyone disagree?
Nick
November 19th, 2012
3:50 pm
Anyone who calls Paul Johnson’s offense a “gimmick” has no understanding of football.
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
3:50 pm
Won’t have a chance… maybe against Alabama, but they should win on Saturday for sure. Don’t tell me Tech has played the world’s best schedule themselves.
GT Billy
November 19th, 2012
3:51 pm
Sadly, Tech’s defense, IF able to hold, won’t be able to for a full 4 quarters.
DIT
November 19th, 2012
3:51 pm
“You haven’t seen our defense that played against Duke! We dominated!”
___________________
I’m sorry my friend, but we are talking about DUKE!!. Dominating Duke is like dominating Auburn!(This year) Just does not hold much water.
Hankie Aron
November 19th, 2012
3:51 pm
DIT is right that Tech has righted the ship after that 41-17 beatdown by the Fightin Romneys but some of you other folks like GT Joe, 85-20? Let me know when you come back to earth , Buzz Lightyear. Still Tech doesn’t have anything to lose for sure and should play loose. Still think there is too much for UGA to play for to lose this game. Our defense having seen basically the same offense 2 weeks in a row and should be very motivated going into the game.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
3:51 pm
Ole Miss put up 35 on LSU!
An FCS school scored 22 on them. Ole Miss getting 35 isn’t that amazing.
CC
November 19th, 2012
3:51 pm
GO DAWGS!
Mike S.
November 19th, 2012
3:53 pm
Anything could happen, but I think it would be a shame for Richt to miss out on a NC. I’m a Tech grad, but have to say there isnt a more deserving coach in football to get a NC. Say what you want, the guy is a class act and is always under fire for not winning the big one. If he loses to Tech, that fire will rage to the point that beating Bama for the SEC title wouldn’t even put it out. That’s more of an indictment to the fanatics that follow UGA football than Richt, but a NC is the only reason Richt isnt spoken of nationally with the coaching elite.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:53 pm
GoldenRod, giving up 24 points to a Duke offense that is 53rd in points per game, 88th in total yards per game, 108th in rush yards per game, and 45 in pass yards per game is nothing to brag about.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:53 pm
GoldenRod, giving up 24 points to a Duke offense that is 53rd in points per game, 88th in total yards per game, 108th in rush yards per game, and 45 in pass yards per game is nothing to brag about.
Goldenrod
November 19th, 2012
3:54 pm
Matt Chernoff on 680 The Fan just said on-air that Georgia Tech loses to both UGAg and Free-Shoes University. Uggggh! I HATE him now. Add him to Coach Johnson’s list to pound after we are BCS bound!
DIT
November 19th, 2012
3:54 pm
@Mike S. – Thanks, class post my friend!
Chicken George
November 19th, 2012
3:54 pm
And so it’s come to roost…….. every Georgia fan’s VERY WORST nightmare. Since 1980, for the first time, Georgia has a chance to win the GT game, plus two more, and FINALLY get their 2nd championship. Unfortunately, they must do so by beating a rival coach who can match their collective arrogance with results (see 2008). You WORRY about getting behind early by one score. You are TRULY SCARED that if you slip up and turn it over early and get behind by double digits, you won’t have the opportunity to get it back. In the back of your head, you REALIZE that Vad Lee just very well may go 4-0 against you and make it a rivalry again. All this concern, all this emotion. All of this is true.
You SHOULD be concerned, you SHOULD be worried, you SHOULD be nervous. Even if you do win (and it will be MUCH CLOSER than the Vegas 14 points – believe that), you will have faced two straight weeks of cut blocks – playing with your hands below your waist trying to ’shuck’ offensive linemen. Then, one week later, comes arguably the nation’s TOUGHEST – SMASH MOUTH offensive line right at you in your own state! You thought Boise State’s game plan was tough?!?!?! Bama will absolutely dismantle you – and you’ll all crawl back under your collective rocks.
Enjoy the next week and a half – you may lose TWICE and I’m going to enjoy every single second of it!
Hankie Aron
November 19th, 2012
3:55 pm
UGA Chance guy- Everyone disagrees, MTState is average at best.
gt45
November 19th, 2012
3:55 pm
Eleven? Thanks, Mark, for being so kind!
GTFAN
November 19th, 2012
3:55 pm
I am so sick of overrated UGA!!!! The only reason they are ranked so high is because they haven’t played anybody worth a crap. The SEC East sucks!!!! The conference is weak. We may not win, but I don’t see UGA rolling over us as some of the typical UGA fans have predicted. UGA will get spanked by Bama, and the typical UGA bandwagon fans will jump off like they always do!
Go DAWGS!
November 19th, 2012
3:55 pm
I’m a huge Dawg fan but I don’t think UGA has what it takes to beat Tech. We need new coaches that actually respect our fans instead of making fun of us.
Atlantan
November 19th, 2012
3:57 pm
Uga 51 – banner day for Murray & Gurley
GT 31
Frodo
November 19th, 2012
3:57 pm
Based on comments here, Tech fans should all be psychologically evaluated upon graduation in order to determine whether they capable of functioning in the real world. “If it wasnt for the refs over the last ten years the Tech UGA record would be something like 6-5 or 5-6″? Is that a real thought? Or are you trying to stoke the fire here? We don’t care if we beat you by 1 or 50. You’re a gnat on our schedule. You can’t accept that can you? You’re nothing. Your program is nothing. And the stadium is a joke.
Crimson Pride
November 19th, 2012
3:57 pm
Georgia is a good, but not a great team. Their offense is very good. But Tech has lost five games, let’s be reasonable people. I’m not saying they haven’t improved, but they seem to always lose to UGA. Georgia wins, as usual.
Mike S.
November 19th, 2012
3:57 pm
Johnson’s offense isn’t technically a gimmick, but it by default gambles on the fact you wont be disciplined enough to play it properly. He can’t recruit the kind of players that can line up one on one with the top schools and blow them off the ball. He needs them to be out of position. If they arent, he loses. its just that simple. That’s why he hasnt won even a low level bowl game yet. When teams have more than a week to prepare for Johnson, they show up in the right mindset. UGA just played GA Southern which is a bad thing. They have been in option mode for over a week now.
GTracy
November 19th, 2012
3:57 pm
“Auburn and Ole Miss are much better than Tech and we held both teams to a combined 10 points”
LOL Are you kidding me? Everything you say has now been discredited. Auburn has won what, 2 games this year! Some UGA fans really are stupid.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:58 pm
UGA doesn’t have what it takes to beat Tech huh? 10 out the past 11 games speak otherwise. Or is it 11 out of 12? I’ve lost count.
AntoineFord
November 19th, 2012
3:58 pm
CPJ uses his superior intelligence and phenom Vad Lee to stun the Dawgs 38-35 in OT. Then Tech and UGA both get beaten like yellow yard dogs in their conference championships.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:58 pm
@GTracy, if you put Auburn and Tech on the same field, Auburn would win. No doubt.
62-39-5 Dawgs vs the Joke by Coke
November 19th, 2012
3:59 pm
42-45 a fluke
Tom
November 19th, 2012
3:59 pm
What? Are you delusional? If they played 10 times, they would win more than once and this comes from a uga fan. I’d guess it’s more like 3 or 4. Look how ga struggles every year with teams. Add in having to defend the triple options 10 times with different plays and schemes and there’s no way they would only win once.
UGA fans delusional.. Again
November 19th, 2012
3:59 pm
Auburn or Ole Miss would not beat Tech.. They are not good teams.. At all.. SEC patch on the shoulder does not change that FACT. SEC patch on the shoulder will not win the game on Saturday.. This game will be the deciding factor on ACC vs SEC this year.. FSU will cruise over a WEAK UF team,, Clem over a WEAK S Carolina team (that monkey stomped UGA).. Wake will lose
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
4:00 pm
Like many have said on these blogs, Georgia basically had two weeks to prepare for this game with the option being similar to what Johnson runs. Tech throws the ball more than Southern, but that extra practice has to help.
DIT
November 19th, 2012
4:01 pm
I would not say Auburn is better than tech this year, but Ole Miss, yes.