Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
3:09 pm
Some of the score predictions on here are ridiculous. Georgia is not scoring 60 and Tech is certainly not putting up 50 on our defense. IF anyone hasn’t noticed, Georgia’s defensive coordinator from that ‘08 game, (Willie Martinez), is no longer at the school. Since then, the guys actually know what they are doing.
George Stein
November 19th, 2012
3:09 pm
They have girls – lots of ‘em, in fact – at Ole Miss, but they don’t have many football players, POTF.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
3:10 pm
Ain’t gonna be any Calvin Johnson’s brought in by CPJ…..
Yeah, we were really an elite team when Calvin was here. Never mind that he was surrounded by terrible players.
Beasts of SEC East
November 19th, 2012
3:12 pm
You jacket fans crack me up thinking you’re going to hang 40+ on UGA’s NFL-bound defense! LMAO Basically the same D as last season that smacked tech in the mouth and only allowed 17 points.
Daws Run This State and don’t you maggots ever forget it!
Reservoir Dawg
November 19th, 2012
3:12 pm
harleyman, that was a good one!
Utah Dawg
November 19th, 2012
3:13 pm
Georgia Southern for 300 rushing…so what! If UGA does not pull some of the starters on offense and coasts in running the ball, then they run for 75 -100 yards less. Plus all they do is run the ball so 300 or so total yards is not that impressive when you throw for 25. Perfect to schedule Southern before Tech. Tech losses by similar margin as Southern. Dawgs will not come out flat for a rivalry game with stakes this high. Expect the “A” game.
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
3:13 pm
Beasts of the East, the same defense that got torched by a team that just fired their coach?
dawgfan
November 19th, 2012
3:13 pm
Enter your comments here
DawgieStyle
November 19th, 2012
3:14 pm
Calvin “2 Catch” Johnson – oh yeah Dawg fans remember him well. Asher Allen & co. LOCKED DOWN Calvin to 2 catches every game during his career with the Wreck. AJ Green was a FAR better college player and don’t put all of the blame on Reggie Ball, the Dawgs D flat out shut Calvin down!
IT IS WHAT IT IS
November 19th, 2012
3:14 pm
GT????? YOU suck You suck You suck!!! Why are you Tech fans on here even talking!!! You Suck!!!
harleyman
November 19th, 2012
3:15 pm
Thanks Reservoir Dawg. However, I don’t think the Techies got it. can’t see too many of them knowing how to fish.
CHDawg
November 19th, 2012
3:16 pm
One thing I forgot to mention, and few have brought it up, but the great preparation the Dawgs got last week against the Eagles could make a difference! Tech’s O is so weird that it always takes the Dawgs a qtr to a half to get used to it. This year they have been working on it for two weeks. Our starters and coaches are more familiar than the past, too. Could help the R&B.
bklyndawg
November 19th, 2012
3:16 pm
My first experience with Ga/Ga Tech was the Sanks “fumble” game. Since then, I have a very strict rule: every year, absolutely believe we will lose the Tech game, despite all evidence and scores to the contrary, until the game is over and (preferably) both teams are out of the stadium.
*Then* I allow myself a small glimmer of hope.
C’mon Dawgs! Sic ‘Em!
Hey tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
3:17 pm
Your offense is NOWHERE near as good as the Vols and the Dawgs’ D has been playing lights out ever since being called out by Shawn Williams.
I know your maggots will rush for 250+ yards and still lose the game yet consider that a moral victory to hang your pocket protectors on!
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
3:17 pm
the Dawgs D flat out shut Calvin down!
They double and triple teamed him almost every play, which was a good strategy.
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
3:17 pm
Bradley & Schultz are like tennie boppers. They write emotional short sided articles, but very rarely provide strong critical analysis.
They’ll keep heralding CPJ and they’ll keep supporting Wren.
I read the AJC because there’s not much else to read out there covering atlanta sports. I guess kinda equate reading the AJC to GTBobby on this blog. He’s a nerd with nothing better to do than get on the UGA blogs.
kimmer
November 19th, 2012
3:18 pm
UGA has had a decidedly pedestrian season for a team now ranked #3 in the BCS. Even so I expect they will handle the insects but lose like a big dog to bama in the dome.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
3:19 pm
the Dawgs’ D has been playing lights out ever since being called out by Shawn Williams.
I think the fact that they haven’t played a team with even a decent offense probably helped them more than Shawn Williams.
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
3:19 pm
I think we will lose the game too. I think our offense is as good as UT’s. But we will not be in this game because our defense is so terrible. I think we should have a decent day offensively. Unless orwin is out. Then it might be tough on that side of the ball too.
George Stein
November 19th, 2012
3:20 pm
If we’re going to discuss Calvin, it’s worth noting that UGA was called for several PI penalties against him. Also, UGA was playing with 12 men each of Calvin’s three years.
Mark Richt
November 19th, 2012
3:21 pm
Coach Grantham and I have not been able to sleep thinking about Vad Lee. The only thoughts that keep me sane is my secret thoughts of other men. Ooooops did I say that out loud hehe
Truth
November 19th, 2012
3:24 pm
Ole Miss’ offense is better than tech’s and we all know Georgia Southern’s is as well.
tech’s D is unmentionable bad, looking for 4 TDs from Murray and 2 from Gurshall!
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:26 pm
That Tech win also came against Willie Martinez’s defense who had no idea how to stop the triple option. This will be Grantham’s 4th time (including Ga Southern) facing the triple option offense. He knows how to scheme against it. Georgia wins big. Why is this even a discussion?
BigdaddyJ
November 19th, 2012
3:26 pm
Paul Johnson’s ego will lose this one for Tech…..go for it on 4th down you big bumble bee
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
3:26 pm
The Calvin Johnson point is irrelevant. He was and is still one of the best receivers I have ever seen. When GT had almost no other options, the Georgia coaches were smart enough to put two guys on him at all times and Reggie Ball wasn’t exactly the best quarterback to be throwing to him.
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
3:27 pm
Truth, based on what? Points per game? Yards per game? How about you think before you open your mouth with useless banter that is false and provides nothing to the conversation except for making yourself look bad.
Rooty Tooty
November 19th, 2012
3:28 pm
Just listen to all you arse holes. I suggest the team that scores the most pionts will win. I would like for the dawgs to have to pick the hedges out from their you know what at games end however.
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
3:28 pm
BigdaddyJ we can’t make an extra point. That choice is made because we have no kicking game at all. His hands are tied more or less. Might as well go for it
DawgFaithful
November 19th, 2012
3:29 pm
“gurley couldn’t run for 180 on Georgia Southern… Not gonna happen v. tech.”
GSU loaded the box and run blitzed the whole game. As a result Aaron Murray threw for almost 400 yds and 4 TD’s. You’re going to get one or the other. Take your pick buddy.
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
3:30 pm
Why are Nerds fans the most bitter people out there?
Slayer
November 19th, 2012
3:31 pm
Dawgs whip Tech 41-10 then whip Bama 38-17. Then whip ND in National Title Game 37-0!
GTracy
November 19th, 2012
3:31 pm
I hate UGA and I would love to ruin their BCS title hopes but I just don’t see it happening, Bama will ruin their dreams the following week however. If the pups somehow sneak into the title game, I might just have to move out of this state because the barks would be deafening for years to come.
As for UGAg, I’d rather be lucky than good. And they always get the breaks in the rivalry game. Never seen anything like it!
DawgFaithful
November 19th, 2012
3:31 pm
Bob,
“I think the fact that they haven’t played a team with even a decent offense probably helped them more than Shawn Williams.”
I hear what you’re saying but we beat Ole Miss. Pretty good offense there. They hung 35 on LSU. We held them to 35 yds rushing and 10 points. They scored in the 1st quarter and never scored again. Florida has almost no offense but they were averaging 235 yds rushing going into that game.
billyBobjacket
November 19th, 2012
3:31 pm
Technically, we did not “win the ACC Coastal Division outright”. We were tied with Miami in record, lost to them in the head to head tiebreaker, but get to represent the Coastal in the ACCCG.
Bob LaBlah
November 19th, 2012
3:32 pm
This is a pride game for Tech. Nothing else. This is a 32 year wait for UGA. They keep saying “wait til next year’. Well, here it is. The dogs have EVERYTHING to lose. It was an accident they got this close. They won’t get another opportunity like this for a long time.
Truth
November 19th, 2012
3:32 pm
I knew you nerds would blame all of Calvin Johnson’s failures in Reggie Ball.
2 things are constant: you’re pathetic & predictable!
We’ll pat you on the head little brother, nice try!
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
3:32 pm
Ole Miss’ offense is better than tech’s and we all know Georgia Southern’s is as well.
lol. Well since we are making up nonsense I will claim that UNC and Duke are much better defensively than UGA.
Reebok
November 19th, 2012
3:33 pm
Generally I would think that it helps Tech somewhat that Georgia has to prepare for 2 QB’s, but since we play pretty much the same game with either Tevin or Vad in there, I guess it doesn’t much matter. Tevin’s less likely to turn the ball over, but Vad’s more likely to make a big play…I assume CPJ will give each QB a couple of possessions and go from there. Hopefully by then we won’t be down 28-0.
Craven Morehead
November 19th, 2012
3:33 pm
Slayer? A better name would be Stupid!
St. Simons Jacket
November 19th, 2012
3:33 pm
45-42! 45-42! 45-42! hahahaha!
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
3:33 pm
I hear what you’re saying but we beat Ole Miss. Pretty good offense there.
They are ranked 53rd in the country. I’m not sure I would call that pretty good.
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
3:33 pm
DawgFaithful probably both will happen. The tech defense is as bad as you think it is. Murray will light it up and the backs will have big days too.
Charles
November 19th, 2012
3:34 pm
Name one player on Tech’s defense that is an impact player….yeah that’s what I thought.
Georgia is just better than Tech. Simple. Tech won’t be able to stop Gurley or Marshall and if they load the box, Murray will just shred them with his weapons. It’s that simple. Tech’s offense won’t get much push against Georgia’s big D-line and that’s why UGA will win.
GT Alum 98
November 19th, 2012
3:35 pm
If it wasnt for the refs over the last ten years the Tech UGA record would be something like 6-5 or 5-6.
LowndesJacket
November 19th, 2012
3:35 pm
err YES AND WE WILL GO JACKETS
Hankie Aron
November 19th, 2012
3:36 pm
If UGA had less to play for then I see Tech with a shot at possibly winning this game. But the fact that this is the first time under Richt that UGA has a clear path to the Nat’l Championship game provides too much motivation for them to lose to the Jackets.
TeeDawg
November 19th, 2012
3:37 pm
You idiotic Jackets fans, all you have to hand your hats on is the 45-42 game, one measly win out of 11 tries during the Mark Richt era!
Enjoy your ACC Coastal Championship that Miami’s thugs handed you, that will be your last win of the season.
3 words - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE!
AMG
November 19th, 2012
3:38 pm
My bet on the final score is GT 70 UGA 66 if Tech scores less than 70 They will lose and lose bad, UGA will have close to 600 yards offense , the only question is weather or not Tech will have 600 Yards of offense.
Nativebird
November 19th, 2012
3:39 pm
Firstly, thank you for not calling first place in a conference division a “Championship”. That’s not a championship of anything. Secondly regarding the chances my Jackets have of beating Georgia on Saturday; let’s see…hmmm… how should we put this……oh yea…NO WAY NO HOW.
Goldenrod
November 19th, 2012
3:40 pm
You leghumpers STOP bringing up that Midd Tenn St loss! Since we fired Groh, the Jackets are unstoppable!
You guys underestimate Vad Lee, the best college prospect in the state of Georgia since Johnathan Dwyer!
45-42