Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
Spike
November 19th, 2012
2:44 pm
Tech lost to Middle Tennesee State. Nuff said.
Ed Pilcher
November 19th, 2012
2:44 pm
Jacket Man….UGA isn’t ‘pass-happy’. We do have a capable running attack.
Jeffrey
November 19th, 2012
2:44 pm
We got to get em on first down. That triple option is too hard to stop on 3rd and 2. We need our line to blow theirs up like Lsu did to them back in that peach bowl years ago.
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
2:45 pm
GTBob, I think it’s time for you to get a hobby and not worry about what UGA is doing. If you concede the game to us every year then maybe you should spend time on the ACC blogs. Oh wait, there’s probably nobody on those blogs, just like they are not at the games…
Hankie Aron
November 19th, 2012
2:45 pm
It would be nice if some of my fellow Dawg fans would show some temperance from time to time also like George Stein does
sean jones
November 19th, 2012
2:45 pm
13 Nat’l Titles for BAMA and 1 Nat’l Tiltle for the DWAGS……jus sayin!
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
2:47 pm
If you concede the game to us every year then maybe you should spend time on the ACC blogs.
Im a fan, not a player or coach. I don’t have the power to concede anything. That said, just like every year UGA has 10-20 times the talent GT has. If it stays close enough to keep it interesting I will be happy.
Can Tech ruin UGA’s season? It’s possible. But probable? – Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) | Blog Mas Rifky
November 19th, 2012
2:48 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
2:48 pm
Some of the trolls here saying Georgia will get beat by 20+ points are delusional. It is certainly possible Tech could give us a close game and even win. But Georgia scoring only 21 or 17 on that defense is laughable. Tech’s offense looks good, so it will not be a blowout. Dawgs 41 Tech 27 Gurley runs for 180 as Georgia melts the clock in the second half.
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
2:48 pm
Techs d is really bad. Even if we’re clicking offensevely, we still can’t find any stops to win this game.
GeoffDawg
November 19th, 2012
2:49 pm
I have to say that I’ve always admired George Stein’s posts as well. He’s thoughtful, articulate, and balanced in his appraisal of the topic at hand. You can also have a meaningful conversation with him that doesn’t include threats or declarations on your mother’s night time activities.
Ed Pilcher
November 19th, 2012
2:49 pm
Sean Jones………Only about 6 of them are legit, if that many. The others are bogus. Just sayin.’
If it was left up to you Bammers, you would claim 144 of them……exactly the number of college football seasons since 1869.
sandiegodawg
November 19th, 2012
2:50 pm
Goldenrod, you’re cute when you’ve been drinking beer for breakfast. Bradley’s right: Dawgs stay focused and beat Tech by the score stated.
GT Joe
November 19th, 2012
2:50 pm
seinfeld: gurley couldn’t run for 180 on Georgia Southern… Not gonna happen v. tech.
GT Joe
November 19th, 2012
2:51 pm
It really does come down to this:
If Tevin Washington plays more than 2 drives, we lose big.
If Tevin plays 2 or less, we have a 50/50 shot at winning.
Vad Lee is key.
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
2:52 pm
Hey GTBob, whose fault is it that we have a coach who values recruiting talent and doesnt have his head stuck up his a** Whose fault is it that you sit on the blogs vs. actually attending the games?
George Stein
November 19th, 2012
2:53 pm
Thanks, Hankie. I try not to be too much of a troll.
Mask of False Bravado
November 19th, 2012
2:54 pm
Just looked at Richt’s picture again on this blog. My God, he does look like Helen Hunt.
Mark Bradley
November 19th, 2012
2:55 pm
We’ll have to cut this off if you folks keep saying nice things about one another. It sets a terrible precedent.
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
2:56 pm
Hey GTBob, whose fault is it that we have a coach who values recruiting talent and doesnt have his head stuck up his a**
Oh give me a break. If UGA and GT swapped coaches then UGA would still be in the top 10 every year in recruiting rankings and GT would still be scrapping to make the top 40. Coaches have little to do with it.
GeoffDawg
November 19th, 2012
2:56 pm
sean jones, if you go by the same type of historic poll criteria that Bama uses to claim thirteen titles, then Georgia would have five. Even using strict current standards, the total would be two or three.
1990_Champs_GT
November 19th, 2012
2:56 pm
UGA 21, GT 17
Closer than expected, but Johnson and that offense “in his head” couldn’t beat Middle Tennessee. Why should we expect them to step?
This loss, along with losses in the ACC Championship game and what ever toilet bowl they go to, will spell out the end of the CPJ error at Tech.
Fire Paul Johnson!
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
2:57 pm
Here are my thoughts. Georgia will win by 10-21 points. Most likely by 14. Tech will come to play, but their offense is not quite as good as ours or at least our defense is good enough to contain them at times. I’ve heard about Georgia Tech rushing for 400+ yards in ‘08 and 2010 on Georgia. As Mark mentioned, Georgia fared better the second time around each time… and facing Southern will provide some experience, even though GT is a better team.
Also, keep in mind that that ‘08 team had more talent on offense than this Tech teams does. Dwyer was a stud running back, and Thomas was their wide receiver. Orwin Smith is good but overall they aren’t as talented at the running back positions as they were then or even in 2010 with Anthony Allen. If they had better talent, I’d be worried. But barring turnovers, we should be fine. And Murray has a very good track record against our rivals, even when we didn’t have the benefit of balance from the running game (Crowell and Samuel did not play due to injuries). What makes the offense so good for UGA is the balance and Tech’s defense is having a bad year.
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
2:57 pm
GT Joe, I have a feeling that we will need Vads playmaking skills to have a shot in this game.
GT Joe
November 19th, 2012
2:58 pm
GTBob: maybe CPJ needs to sing happy birthday to recruits, or do some high dives into the pool like Mark Richt.
A good spray tan doesn’t hurt either.
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
2:58 pm
Nerd theme song: All the Way Turnt up, all the way reverse the co-sign through the tangent, All the Way study and don’t attend games, All the Way Nerd up
George Stein
November 19th, 2012
2:59 pm
I’d say y’all are making me blush, but I have an aversion to all things red this week.
GT Joe
November 19th, 2012
3:00 pm
Seinfeld: you talk about GT’s offense having more talent in 2008. What about UGA? Stafford, Moreno and AJ Green? best UGA team ever in terms of talent.
Also most underachieving team in UGA history…
harleyman
November 19th, 2012
3:00 pm
Mark, I do not anticipate UGA having any trouble with Tech for the simple reason that Georgia Southern is a better football team than Tech and you see how that one worked out.
ScoutDawg
November 19th, 2012
3:00 pm
This game will remind Yech fans all over again of that great day when “we run this state”, was first coined. Gurshall pounds the rock 35 times this game, controls the clock, and wins 35-14.
1990_Champs_GT
November 19th, 2012
3:00 pm
Richt does look like Helen Hunt. Weird!
And Paul Johnson looks like Oscar the Grouch!
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
3:01 pm
Hey I like wershing my red ford truck, spray tanning, shades that don’t fit, and obsessing about my nest. I especially like building huts too
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
3:01 pm
Bob is right on one thing: It is much harder for Tech to recruit talented player to their school than Georgia. It’s the same deal with Mark Fox being a good coach but he can’t get more talent to come to Athens.
DOGFORCE
November 19th, 2012
3:02 pm
GT Was admitted into the Southern Conference today.
Congrats!
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
3:02 pm
GTBob, Chan Gailey had highly rated recruiting classes and he got owned by Birdhair EVERY YEAR.
Dumpster fire
November 19th, 2012
3:03 pm
Nov 24 is 5 days away……..
over by half time, the dawgs are focused and tech is not ready for what is awaiting them in Athens……
Bama will suffer the same fate as tech………
DOGFORCE
November 19th, 2012
3:04 pm
FCS here we come buzzing!
Discount DoubleDawg
November 19th, 2012
3:04 pm
I have to say, it is so much more fun when both teams have a postive vibe. The fact Ga Tech is going to the ACC Championship game only makes things more interesting… The fact UGA needs to beat Tech in order to keep National Championship hopes alive makes this game more important than it has been in a long, long time.
DOGFORCE
November 19th, 2012
3:04 pm
NEWS FLASH….
Southern Conference debating lack of security and mugging problems on campus.
BILLY JACK
November 19th, 2012
3:04 pm
Since Mark Richt is a christian I know he wont do it but I would like him to not let up this time-Georgia 77 Tech17
tooltime234
November 19th, 2012
3:05 pm
Here we go again. Chan Gailey did not have better recruiting classes than PJ Birdhair. He had 1 good class. His average classes were the same as PJs
Jerry Seinfeld
November 19th, 2012
3:05 pm
Seinfeld: you talk about GT’s offense having more talent in 2008. What about UGA? Stafford, Moreno and AJ Green? best UGA team ever in terms of talent.
Also most underachieving team in UGA history…
Yes, offensively it did not get much better than that at the skill positions… but the offensive line started three freshmen. but more important was that team had a horrific defense led by a horrific DC (Martinez) and on top of that, Georgia’s defense is a heck of a lot better than it was that year. I’m not saying UGA’s offense is better than ‘08 but Georgia’s defense is much better and Tech’s defense is pretty bad right now.
POTF
November 19th, 2012
3:06 pm
It’s harder for Tech to recruit because most recruits like girls and there has always been a lack thereof at Tech. But in order to get girls, you gotta have guys that can play football. Thus, the neverending cycle continues.
BILLY JACK
November 19th, 2012
3:07 pm
Going to the ACC championship with 5 losses- thats funny.If tech had any honor they would decline to save embarrasment.FSU 68 Tech 14
Keep Paul Johnson
November 19th, 2012
3:07 pm
The Bulldog Nation LOVES Paul Johnson! Please tell us that tech backing into the WEAK ACC Coastal Champions via Miami’s forfeit means that GT athletics will keep Bigger Fish to Fry for at least 5 more years. The Dawgs and Coach Richt LOVE whipping the Jackets every November!
Keep Paul Johnson! WE RUN THIS STATE!
Birdhair's Nest
November 19th, 2012
3:08 pm
PJ looks like an angry puppet from some 1980’s horror flick involving killer clowns.
Reservoir Dawg
November 19th, 2012
3:08 pm
This blog is hilarious
MB, this has to be your favorite week of the year. BTW, Happy Thanksgiving!
Birdhair
November 19th, 2012
3:08 pm
Ain’t gonna be any Calvin Johnson’s brought in by CPJ…..
GTBob
November 19th, 2012
3:08 pm
GTBob, Chan Gailey had highly rated recruiting classes and he got owned by Birdhair EVERY YEAR.
toottime234 beat me to it. Chan Gailey’s average recruiting ranking was actually lower than CPJ’s.
harleyman
November 19th, 2012
3:08 pm
Actually, PJ looks like a big bream.