Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
1:09 pm
So glad GT’s defense “prevailed” in the win against UNC. You can have a poor defense and win. Remember your game against the Vols? That was in spite of your defense; not because of it.
The SEC Rules!
November 20th, 2012
1:13 pm
THE SEC COULD BREAK BCS RULES
THE SEC RULES
I never thought of this before, but if the SEC had the top three BCS teams, Bama, GA and FLA (presuming a potential loss for ND vs USC) then the situation would become one in which the two SEC Division champs, Bama-Ga, would have to play each other for a right to play for the national championship, while the #3 team in the SEC, Fla, would get a ‘bye week’ into that same championship game?! Whut?
http://thesecrules.blogspot.com/
cpj
November 20th, 2012
1:54 pm
UGA 49 – gtu 24, sorry but that is how I see it.
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
1:55 pm
You are also assuming Florida beats FSU. Also, when UGA loses to Bama, they will slide a lot further than #3. Why did I waste time shooting down your ridiculous dream????
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
1:57 pm
Bama vs. ND in BCS title game. UGA vs Big 10 team dujour in a 2nd tier Florida bowl game.
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
1:59 pm
SEC Rules- So you’re saying that when Bama beats UGA on Dec 1, UGA will slide no further than #3 in the BCS rankings???bwhahahahahahaha! You are also making an assumption that UF beats FSU this weekend.
Phelps
November 20th, 2012
2:03 pm
2:01 pm
The ONLY reason Tech is in the ACC title game is because Miami self imposed. Tech did not earn their way into the title game like UGA did. UGA had to beat UF, Ole Miss, Aub and not stumble once to get in and we earned it.
Who has Tech beaten? Let’s see…Presbyterian, Virginia, Boston College, Maryland (who had a LB playing QB), North Carolina and Duke. Wow! And somehow they think they’re going to beat UGA who will be the best team they’ve faced by FAR.
It's not possible either
November 20th, 2012
2:30 pm
But it is a funny title.
Another beatdown coming Saturday, dorks.
BUHUHUHUHWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Max
November 20th, 2012
2:40 pm
No matter how flat UGA looks all season, when they play Tech they always get that burst of energy and play like world champs.
BamaDawg1
November 20th, 2012
2:55 pm
@ Sean Jones…if you are a Bama fan, you must not be much of one. If we are using the same “philosophy” Bama uses to count its “14″ NC’s, then UGA has 5!!! However, we only count 2…unlike Alabama who counts SEVERAL NC’s when they where picked #1 by Helen’s Boy Scout Troup 8!
Phelps
November 20th, 2012
3:06 pm
The difference in this year’s game will be Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall. Last year vs. GT, we had no run game to speak of. Crowell was hurt and out and all we had was 5′7 Carlton Thomas and 5′6 Brandon Harton. So basically the game was all on Murray and he still lit GT up. GT will be facing Gurley and Marshall this time which will make a huge difference
Buddy Landel
November 20th, 2012
3:49 pm
What does Thomas’s and Harton’s height have to do with their ability? Ray Rice? Doug Martin? Darren Sproles
yeller bug
November 20th, 2012
4:10 pm
The problem with having a middle of the road team is that you get run over alot.
yeller bug
November 20th, 2012
4:14 pm
UGA is definitely the best team Tech has seen so far, but not the best team they will face this year.
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 20th, 2012
4:22 pm
“get that burst of energy”
I bet they do. Where’s headley to pound his chest about UGA’s drug test policy?
Toady (no longer reformed)
November 20th, 2012
4:23 pm
Phelps, have you been hitting the bong?
GTVegas
November 20th, 2012
4:32 pm
I just don’t see GT winning this one. Our defense just isn’t good enough and that will put all sorts of pressure on the offense.
That being said, I think GT is capable of winning if they play their best game and UGA is off, and we get some turnover luck.
We can only hope that the UGA players underestimate GT anf that the GT players play beyond their ability level with a serious chip on their shoulders.
Otherwise, we just need to try to keep from getting embarrased.
Given the talent level on each team, it should be no surprise that UGA is a two TD favorite and it should be no surprise if they beat us by more than that. They should and UGA should be the ones embarrased if they don’t.
FOCUS and EXECUTION for GT and lack of focus and execution for UGA are what we hope for. I know, it’s a big stretch, but one can dream.
Meandog
November 20th, 2012
4:39 pm
Dawgs 38 Yallah Flies 12…Make book on it!
The insects are gonna get a healthy dose of Gurshall DDT
BravesFan79
November 20th, 2012
4:43 pm
Being a bigger GT fan than UGA fan id usually go for GT. But with a national title possibly on the line, ill be pulling for the bulldogs this game. It would be awsome so see any team from Georgia in the title game or final 4 (when college football becomes a real sport).
SPURRIER IS IN UGA'S HEAD
November 20th, 2012
4:48 pm
GA TECH need only mention that SPURRIER is in the house, and the puppies will be running for cover.
Straight and Narrow
November 20th, 2012
4:50 pm
Georgia is capable of losing to anyone on a given day. Tech sucks, but an upset wouldn’t surprise me much.
SPURRIER IS IN UGA'S HEAD
November 20th, 2012
4:59 pm
what’s the difference between a GA grad and a GT grad? Oh, about $50k/yr
AFDawg
November 20th, 2012
5:05 pm
I’m hoping Grantham was using a different look against the option versus GSU to throw off Tech’s preparations for this week. Instead of shadowing the pitch man and giving him time to pitch, the Dogs defense needs to take out the pitch man hard and fast on every roll-out.
AFDawg
November 20th, 2012
5:06 pm
Yeah — that’s a $50K advantage for the genetics graduate from UGA.
230gr Full Metal Jacket
November 20th, 2012
5:42 pm
I would LOVE to see Tech win this one, but I’m not overly optimistic about our defense. Our offens is easily just as good as UGA’s, and our running game is vastly superior, but our Defense just flat-out sucks! Tech has basically 2 hopes:
1) The Defense has actually made good adjustments and gotten stronger as the game progressed for the last 3 games, and Vad Lee is finally getting some serious playing time and has pretty much scored at will (and this against the #6 and #7 ranked Defenses in the nation!!), so while we may lose, there will be no blowout by either side.
2) I’ve been a Tech fan for almost 50 years and EVERY SINGLE YEAR we have surprised everyone by jumping up and defeating a high-ranked team that was supposed to crush us. Every single year. BUT, it has not happened yet this season, so the puppies need to be VERY wary of this squad because they are long overdue for a spectacular upset (and I truly expect one within the next 2 games, but I don’t know if it will happen against UGA or FSU).
We can predict all we want, but this is a child’s game played with a deformed ball by a bunch of 18-to-21 year old kids — ANYTHING can happen on any given Saturday (That is what makes college football so much fun to watch!!). This year I honestly expect a good, hard-fought game by both sides with Georgia winning out by virtue of the talent on their roster. Enjoy it while you can because most of that defensive talent will be gone after this season — and Tech has some talent just as good that are all redshirted freshmen this year (I expect the D to be something opponents fear within the next 2 seasons, but unless you avidly follow Yellow Jackets football you have absolutely no clue what I am talking about — but you will see in good time.).
What REALLY matters though, is getting both UGA and Tech into BCS bowl games!!! I was born bleeding white and old gold (4th generation Yellow Jacket!), but I’ll be pulling hard for ya’ll against the Bubbas from Alabama. But until this coming Sunday, I hate ya’ll worse than a loudmouth yankee know-it-all!! So for now, TO HELL WITH GEORGIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
….and best of luck the following week!!!
Neither team is relavent
November 20th, 2012
7:07 pm
love that UGA fans continue to talk mess about GT backing into the ACC title game..
Look the only reason you are even talking about a potential National Title game is because Ohio State is under the same sanctions “tat” Miami is getting ready to face. So don’t call one thing silly and “backing in,” when the same thing applies to your beloved Bulldwags… FACT.
Gamecock
November 20th, 2012
8:04 pm
You know what to call Georgia? Overrated.
Gamecock
November 20th, 2012
8:09 pm
Has the AJC blackballed Gamecocks?
macrotech
November 20th, 2012
8:26 pm
Who knows….craziest year….ANYTHING can happen! UGA has been looking good, lately….hopefully the Tech players will show up! Either way….GO TECH!!!
wreckmaniac
November 20th, 2012
9:18 pm
UGA will pass until Tech stops it. Just like last year except Tech never stopped it. Tech must sustain long, time-consuming drives to keep the dawg offense off the field. UGA will be going for quick-stike TD passes.
DinoE
November 20th, 2012
9:30 pm
lay off the drugs—GA wins this game in a rout! It will get ugly early with some quick TDs and turnovers. Ga 44 tech 20
Stinger
November 20th, 2012
10:58 pm
Jackets roll in this one. 223-0. Another all time high for scoring points. I can’t see UGA stopping this offense and they will make enough mistakes on offense to lose the game. It could be fumbles, interceptions, or players arrested at halftime.
LSU 42, UGA 10
November 20th, 2012
11:00 pm
I’d say… UGA gets stung. The pressure is too much right now and just like UGA does in most big games, they’ll fold. Now this isn’t a big game, but the pressure is there nonetheless.
As far as historical stats are concerned, they’re pretty meaningless. There was an election this year will most historical trend indicators were demolished.
So, can GT win? I think so. I mean I gave them no chance to beat Clemson last year and they shut them up. I think GT jumps out early and coast to the finish line with an ugly 2nd or 3rd quarter. That’s a gut feeling because I still see UGA as the same UGA we, and Boise, and South Carolina beat down last year. UGA kind of reminds me of Oregon, they feast on bad teams and lose to the first good team they play, and with their wimpy schedule, they’ve only played one in South Carolina. Florida is coming apart since mid season, sure they’re barely winning against nobodies, but that’ll stop cold this weekend with FSU.
I’m going to go with an exact copy of the GT-Clemson game last year, 24-3 at the half in favor of GT, 31 to 17 at the end.
Then Alabama’s passing game, running game and defense mops the dome with GA and they’re back to losing to a Big 10 team on New Years and end 10-4 again. Then fall 1-3 to start next year when we bring Zach back to town. So this is as good as it will get for UGA for years to come, sorry.
GEAUX TIGERS.
LSU 42, UGA 10
November 20th, 2012
11:02 pm
The one thing for sure, a month is a long time off between SEC Championship and BCS NCG.
I don’t see UGA making it a month without half the defense being arrested. But I’m sure Richt will find an excuse as to why they should play anyways “God told me to forgive them and I did.”
But like I said, UGA will easily be 0-3 in their next 3 games.
LSU 42, UGA 10
November 20th, 2012
11:07 pm
Keep this in mind about your Alabama game. They came to our 93,000 seat stadium, at night, played against our defense that’s 40x better than UGA’s and our QB played lights out, and they got their butts handed to them in the second half. .. and still won.
It won’t be close. And I think UGA will be looking past GT this week, and I wouldn’t blame them for doing so, but it’s kind of hard to prepare against a silly triple option offense to pro style played by pros. The only way you lose to the triple option is you don’t prepare for it. And that’s exactly what I expect UGA to do, not prepare for it.
skeptic
November 20th, 2012
11:27 pm
line is 13. i believe it was 14 when they played in 08. and uga was ranked 10th in one of the polls that year i think.
captguitarman
November 21st, 2012
2:24 am
How do you pick a more . . . inconvenient . . . game than this for the Yellow Jackets to win – one out of every ten times? The puppies are truly the better team – they are on their way to an SEC championship game – and if the sun and moon and stars and planets all align, they might even beat Bama and be in the BCS championship. Wow! Who saw that coming – any more than who saw the Jackets playing for the ACC championship? But, was there ever a game more tailor made for the Puppies to lose, to just not to show up than this one? They have everything to lose, and it is already wearing on them. It is already in the back of the Puppie Nation’s mind. Should it happen? Absolutely no bleeping way. It should not even be a contest. But, could it happen? Everyone knows the answer to that one.
Crazy Robert
November 21st, 2012
6:42 am
Yeah, maybe ….
xx
November 21st, 2012
6:53 am
It would set all things right in the world. The hypocritical bible thumper being thumped at home. All those khaki pant wearing pizza delivery majors crying for a year. All the “daddy sent me to college to get a husband” hos whinning for a year. Ahh what a vision.
Ellijay
November 21st, 2012
7:02 am
xx: nice to see you make fun of Christians. Good job. Typical Gtu fan.
Joey
November 21st, 2012
7:33 am
The best thing about the UGA-Tech game?
After the rout, we don’t have to stomach slimeballs like xx and Goldenrod for another 12 months . . .
Honey boy
November 21st, 2012
7:39 am
Paging Thomas Brown, paging Thomas Brown!!
Where is that drivel producing, self righteous snot?
Guess he ran out of faux stats and bloviating..
Anyway, say what you want Buzzduds, don’t bet anything you can’t afford to lose…. Cause it ain’t happening…… Anything else is just delusional… CPJ’s peon to footballs offense is an outmoded tragic joke! Really? Really? One trick pony that’s out of tricks…
Dawgs make it NO contest…. 49-14…. Bank it
why toilets flush backwards
November 21st, 2012
7:52 am
After the Georgia beat down at athens 56-10..GT Fans run home to varisty to figure out what next and that is a wonderfull rout in hands of Florida state 74-6 for ACC championship and end of coach Johnson job…be like auburn coach when he whip 57-14 at auburn….so then Ga will have site on beatin alabama in the georgia dome before 73,242 there..I bet tech wish see that crowd in ACC title game..Two words never happen Ga will Play Notre dame for Natl .championship Game jan 13 and beat Fightin Irish 24-21 in overtime!
Dawgnation
November 21st, 2012
8:03 am
What r the tech fans thinking. The comment uga has not played anyone. Wow! And tech has?……….Maryland,north Carolina, duke……..explain the beating by middle tenn state?those are great teams.rolllllll dawgs
Evansdawg
November 21st, 2012
8:20 am
Tech fans are STILL hanging their joy on 2008?? LMAO! Tech is our doormat! We wipe our feet off on them as we leave the regular season.
BILLY JACK
November 21st, 2012
8:25 am
Georgia is gonna beat tech so bad sat that coach manboobs will be twisting his nipples until they bleed.Georgia 77 Tech 17
BILLY JACK
November 21st, 2012
8:29 am
The way tech recruits it might be 10 or15 years before tech beats Georgia in football.This might be the most lopsided in state rivalry in the country and every year the beatings continue……sad little nerds.
Loser alert
November 21st, 2012
8:43 am
I read a great blog on another site that I haven’t thought about. It said, “if UGa runs the table they will have possibly played 2 teams ranked #1 most of the season (ND and Bama), the # 2 ranked FL (until UGa knocked them off) and were beaten by #3 SC”. That is very impressive……4 teams in the top 3 and all games were on the road!!!! I don’t think any other NC team would be able to say that. Oh yes, and the poster noted that UGa would also have to beat the ACC Coastal champion and possibly the ACC champion on their way to the NC. I guess the doubters need to quit criticizing UGa’s schedule because it is hard to argue with facts!!!
Gurley's gone wild
November 21st, 2012
8:50 am
Gurshall will pound Humble Bumbles.
gt4ever
November 21st, 2012
8:52 am
@Loser alert
Florida is a proven poser… Number 2 my arse… SC is another poser… They smoked your silly dawgs… GT, hey if you can’t beat us, and beat us bad, then your a poser. LOSER. The bottom line is that you have NOT played anybody, until you get to Alabama… UGA, the most delusional fan base in the country! Period. This love affair with the SEC is ABSURD.. ESPN is ABSURD. David Pollack is ABSURD.