Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
JB
November 20th, 2012
10:04 am
And by the way…If we lose to Tech…We don’t deserve to play Bama and represent the SEC East. We will, but shouldn’t…………………Bout like y’all playing FSU for the ACC title…..= Joke
gt4ever
November 20th, 2012
10:05 am
goldenrod is a very funny guy…
gt4ever
November 20th, 2012
10:09 am
@JB
GT can gain some respect if, and only if they beat UGA and FSU… Play a competitive game in the bowl… But if we lose both and are 6-7, we need to stay home. Period.
ylojkt
November 20th, 2012
10:25 am
Go Jackets! Bring home some hedges!
Mark Bradley
November 20th, 2012
10:32 am
No, Crazy Robert, “worst” is correct in that sentence.
Chris
November 20th, 2012
10:39 am
I’d love to see Tech win, but it would be pretty hilarious to see Tech at 6-6 playing in the ACC Championship. And maybe 7-6 in the Orange Bowl. I believe that would be the worst record ever of a team playing in a BCS game. Talk about wrecking the BCS.
Blue Ridge Mountains
November 20th, 2012
10:39 am
Worst or worse? Don’t a tek grad about grammer Bradley. They think they know it all but they are just idiots.
Under The Bleachers
November 20th, 2012
10:39 am
What game is the most viewed this saturday? ESPN’s Georgia vs Georgia Tech or CBS’s Alabama vs Auburn.
One can imagine that Alabama vs Auburn will draw some attention but the Florida vs Florida St game will have many many eyes on it. Georgia vs GT will be head to head with Ohio St and Michigan.
Notre Dame at USC and South Carolina at Clemson will also be the main games to watch on Saturday night.
Gonna be a fun weekend.
Jeff
November 20th, 2012
10:39 am
I’m a Tech fan but this upset is not tenable. Our defense is not effective enough and the kicking game is at best suspect. I like Paul Johnson but you can’t get past Tech’s acedemics and smaller size as an institution. The alumni really don’t chip in like they use to and the nerd like attmosphere does not help recruiting. If you want a football program Georgia has is down, easy to pass the classes, loads of easy women and low standards for entrance. There a parole officer just two doors down; truely a big time SEC program.
Under The Bleachers
November 20th, 2012
10:42 am
http://www.gridirongold.com/college-football-tv-schedule.htm
Phelps
November 20th, 2012
10:44 am
Tech has no advantage over UGA in anything.
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
10:45 am
Blue Ridge Mountains
November 20th, 2012
10:39 am
Worst or worse? Don’t a tek grad about grammer Bradley. They think they know it all but they are just idiots
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
So someone spelled it “grammer” and has the gall to call someone else an idiot? And what is with that second sentence?
Chris
November 20th, 2012
10:46 am
I’m a Tech grad, and I love the rivalry talk when it comes to football. But I’ve never understood why people bring academics into the argument, as both Tech and UGA are pretty good schools filled with their share of very smart students. As for sports, every college team no doubt has players who don’t take learning seriously, but I’m sure there are plenty of players that do well academically too.
Sid
November 20th, 2012
10:59 am
I think georgia’s overrated (topic for another thread) but we aren’t good enough to expose them (barring Lee starting & having game of his life) – sadly, dawgs win but turn into pumpkins in atlanta…
Dawgingatorville
November 20th, 2012
11:02 am
This is a trap game for the Dawgs if I have ever seen one.. The bees will be fired up and the Dawgs D gets gashed by a not so good rushing O all season. So this is playing right to Tech.
If the Dawgs will MAN UP in the middle then they are too fast for bees to get outside and I think they can shut them down, But up the middle is were the Dawgs are too soft, and if you load the middle with an extra player and no blitz this Tech team can suprise you and throw it. HUNKER DOWN HARRY DAWGS!! Be the JUNK YARD DAWGS this Saturday!
BOY THAT DAWG IS UGLY
November 20th, 2012
11:04 am
Phelps….4 national championships in football to Dawgs 1, Academics, Higher SAT scores and most of all RESPECT. Didn’t a UGA baseball player get arrested yesterday for underage drinking? You do have Tech beat on arrests and suspensions.
BOY THAT DAWG IS UGLY
November 20th, 2012
11:07 am
JB….play a schedule for a change. Outside of Gators and Gamecocks the winning percentage of FBS opponents this year was a little over 30%. Oh…and the Gators beat ULL by 7 so was that really a quality win?
madddawg
November 20th, 2012
11:11 am
Anyony who wants to judge a school on here base on a student or athelete getting caught under aged drinking….I mean anyone who even mentions it….IDIOT…Thats all I can say.
These are sport articles and sports blogs.
Big Donnie
November 20th, 2012
11:11 am
UGA 41
GT 16
ALA: 38
UGA: 10
UGA: 44
NORTHWESTERN: 13
GT Morons
November 20th, 2012
11:14 am
Based on the statements I’ve seen…Tech Fans’ IQs are substantially lower than those of their graduates…
johndawg
November 20th, 2012
11:15 am
Reports from Athens indicate that a few players have been suspected of breaking the team’s substance abuse policy. The school is not expected to administer drug tests until after the SECCG. I hope it is not any of our notable players.
Phelps
November 20th, 2012
11:15 am
We’re talking football @BOY, not baseball or basketball. Football. And academics are equal.
Somebody get me a fly-swatter!
November 20th, 2012
11:16 am
Dawgs 55, Buzz 3
Phelps
November 20th, 2012
11:17 am
@ JohnDawg, you’re a damn lie.
Doh!
November 20th, 2012
11:19 am
Reading these comments…getting dumber by the minute.
Can Georgia win against teams with winning records?
November 20th, 2012
11:23 am
Well, if Georgia manages to beat Tech, it will be the rare win over a team with a winning record! Does the country really want to see a team that only beat three teams with winning records (Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia Tech — Georgia Southern doesn’t count) in the National Championship?? that is stupid. Georgia fans, you guys need a reality check. Never have I seen a fan base that gets as high on no reason, and then also gets as low on no reason as this one.
Jimmy Foley
November 20th, 2012
11:29 am
It is sad that UGA fans are so excited about a measly SEC championship game. I hope Alabama beats the tar out of the dawgs. Maybe, just maybe they’ll fire Richt’s sub-par butt.
I don’t even know why I’m posting about this really though. College football suks. It’s a bunch of freaking kids, you perverts. NFL is real football!
ARdawg
November 20th, 2012
11:34 am
By the time Georgia gets through with Tech, they won’t have a winning record
ARdawg
November 20th, 2012
11:37 am
Say all the crap you want, this Georgia team isn’t looking past anyone particularly Tech. They know what this game means and not just a path to Miami. Beating you guys is a priority every year and especially for Richt. The defense has got your number and the offense is looking forward to teeing off on you guys
Mark Richt
November 20th, 2012
11:38 am
BLAH! BLAH !BLAH ! on and on , lets tee it up and see who wins in this “GOOD OLD FASHION HATE ” rivalry game , doesn’t matter what either team has done so far it only matters what happens NOV. 24th at Sanford stadium, yea were favored but we were favored in ” 08″ and you idiot fans saw how that played out and we were preseason # 1 , polls , opinions , speculation, talking heads, blogs, dont matter , just play the game and see who comes out on top . Tech has absolutely nothing to lose and can play lose and on the other hand we are # 3 BCS and playing for a shot of the NC, who is the pressure on , damn right and Murray hasn’t performed all that well in games that we need to win , hell he is usually peeing in his pants and looking like a deer staring at the head lights , hope our D shows up because that option can run you ragged …….see ya Saturday boys & girls ….THWG !!!!!!!!
GTBob
November 20th, 2012
11:40 am
The defense has got your number and the offense is looking forward to teeing off on you guys
How does the defense have GT’s number? Grantham’s complete lack of knowledge of how to defend an option offense is the only thing that gives us hope.
kgtech
November 20th, 2012
11:43 am
As much as this kills me to post,with all the prob TECH
as been on D especially after firing there coordinator.
Dawgs win 28-21 in a close one
ARdawg
November 20th, 2012
11:53 am
“How does the defense have GT’s number? Grantham’s complete lack of knowledge of how to defend an option offense is the only thing that gives us hope.
GTBob
Really? Grantham’s complete lack of knowledge? Seriously Bobby? Grantham led defense has smacked you guys 2 years in a row. A better TO team than Tech just left with a beatdown. Yours is next. Your only hope is that they look past you. I’ve got news, nobody is looking past the wreck from Tech
ARdawg
November 20th, 2012
11:54 am
kgtech
I expect you are probably right but, I have to believe it will be more on the side of a blowout
Phelps
November 20th, 2012
11:58 am
Dawgs win 56-10
USC Lady
November 20th, 2012
12:00 pm
On an given day, any team can win….go jackets, but I think the dawgs will win, unfortunately. Bama will show uga what they don’t have and national championship talk will be over. We will all see thru your pansy schedule. I just hope we don’t play tech in the Chick Fil A bowl. The ACC is horrible this year – all they have to show is FSU and Clemsux. Gamecocks rock Clemsux on Saturday too. SEC will roll for these 2 games and will prove why we are the better conference. Go Cocks!
GTBob
November 20th, 2012
12:10 pm
Grantham led defense has smacked you guys 2 years in a row.
We are averaging 433 yards and 25 points against Grantham. He just gave up over 300 yards to an FCS team. We will lose, but it probably won’t be because of our offense.
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
12:15 pm
What time is it? Well, it is 9:15. Yes 45 to 10.
Reid in EAV
November 20th, 2012
12:15 pm
It’s great to be a Georgia Bulldog.
It sucks to be a bug.
Yes, you play the games for a reason, but teams generally hold serve in this rivalry series. Expect no surprises. Georgia 45, Tech 28.
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
12:25 pm
Ellijay: If it’s 9:15, it’s 45 TIL 10, not “to”. Think of a better pun.
ARdawg
November 20th, 2012
12:25 pm
We are averaging 433 yards and 25 points against Grantham. He just gave up over 300 yards to an FCS team. We will lose, but it probably won’t be because of our offense.
_________________
Then obviously he has some knowledge defending it, you haven’t won. Have you?
GTBob
November 20th, 2012
12:30 pm
Then obviously he has some knowledge defending it, you haven’t won. Have you?
If UGA beats GT 200-199 this weekend is it because Grantham is such a defensive mastermind and he shut GT down? This may shock you but you can play good offense and lose a game. You can play poor defense and win a game. They aren’t mutually exclusive concepts.
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
12:32 pm
Who remebers the one when Champ Bailey caught a couple of passes in the come from behind win?
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
12:32 pm
Who remebers the one when Champ Bailey caught a couple of passes in the come from behind win?
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
12:32 pm
Who remebers the one when Champ Bailey caught a couple of passes in the come from behind win?
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
12:32 pm
Who remebers the one when Champ Bailey caught a couple of passes in the come from behind win?
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
12:33 pm
Trivia question: Who said’ “It’s just a game dog?” Hint: he believes there a 5 downs in a series.
ARdawg
November 20th, 2012
12:44 pm
If UGA beats GT 200-199 this weekend is it because Grantham is such a defensive mastermind and he shut GT down? This may shock you but you can play good offense and lose a game. You can play poor defense and win a game. They aren’t mutually exclusive concepts.
GTBob
Now are you just trying to be ig’nant or does it come naturally? Offense/defense tomato/tamoto. Bobby, if the defense keeps the opposing team to one less point then it was defended. It doesn’t matter if it’s 1-0 or 200-199 the defense prevailed and defended, no?
Doh!
November 20th, 2012
12:55 pm
Dumb and Dumber are making me dumber…
Phelps
November 20th, 2012
12:57 pm
GTBOOB, how many points did you score last year against us?