Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
RunninWithTheDawgs
November 20th, 2012
6:26 am
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Dawgs aren’t already preparing for Bama. If we beat the bugs that’s great we win another year of bragging rights, no big deal, but if we beat Bama the prize is considerably higher. UGA –45 GT –38 in a barn burner. GO UGA !
Marietta GT Alum
November 20th, 2012
6:29 am
As far as fellow Tech fans & alums go, DS CE’91, and the individual who picked UGA 45-35, relayed Tech hopes, facts, & trends very well. To which I might add (to DS CE’91 comments), Tech’s strength & conditioning program hasn’t yielded much fruit: in most of our losses, we seem to run out of gas in the fourth quarter and get overpowered then. And yes, we need more studs on defense. A score of 45-35 appears on target, and George Stein also is spot-on about assessing the Jackets. Hopefully, Coach Kelly has the defense prepared & ready. We ABSOLUTELY hold out a little hope & would love a win here!
TEngineer
November 20th, 2012
6:38 am
The university of football beats Tech—alabama beats the university of football easily.
Crazy Robert
November 20th, 2012
6:39 am
Hey Mark, didn’t you mean to say “… his WORSE lost …” as opposed to “…. his WORST loss…”? Iz U a UGA grad???
GO TECH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FAtDOg
November 20th, 2012
6:41 am
mark this down–this game will not be close. The Dogs get out big early and really run it up. The Dog D gets 2-3 turnovers and Murray lights it up. Dogs 44 Tech 16!
Fred
November 20th, 2012
6:46 am
Jackets 45 UGA 42…..for a second time…..Tide and FSU roll in Championship games.
The shame of it
November 20th, 2012
7:03 am
It’s common knowledge and an unquestioned fact that UGA head football coach Mark Richt has brought shame on the state of Georgia and made an embarrassing laughingstock of the state’s largest university. Even the most avid UGA fans understand this even when they won’t acknowledge it, bless their hearts.
The most embarrassing thing is the win-at-any-price mentality of Richt, which has effectively made UGA a football factory, with cheating, recruiting of low-intelligence dummies who can barely read, and tolerating immoral and unethical activities by both players and coaches. Even with all this, he still can’t win the big games.
Richt is a product of the lawless environments of the University of Miami and Florida State University, where he learned well how to conduct himself in the most sleazy way, while pretending to the world to be a saint. Make no mistake about it – Richt is in coaching purely for the millions of dollars that have been wasted on him, and the millions more he will add until someone in Athens has the integrity and intestinal fortitude to run him out of town.
A truly shameful situation, especially since all Georgians, including UGA alumni and fans, have to live under this shadow of infamy.
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
7:14 am
I am hearing “We have bigger fish to fry” quote in the not so distant future. Go Dawgs!!!!!!!
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
7:19 am
When Gtu Fans start pulling for Alabama I know they have hit rock bottom. What little self esteem they once had is now gone. Stick to ACC women’s field hockey nerds!
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 20th, 2012
8:02 am
Can an ACC Sweep ruin some SEC seasons?
Clemson beats South Carolina.
FSU beats Florida.
GT beats UGA.
Wal-Mart Retards
November 20th, 2012
8:09 am
That would be a nice showing for the ACC, Coastal.
Jim
November 20th, 2012
8:17 am
Tech could also spoil Florida state’s season.
Old Dawg
November 20th, 2012
8:28 am
WOW Shame and Plain. You guys must be knowledgable authorities on all things moral, academic, and athletic. I am now so ashamed of my team, coach, and university…….NOT. What other myths do you idiots believe. Oh yeah, your coach is a moral and offensive genius, all your players made 1200 on the SAT and take calculus, your institution of renown would never play ineligible players, everybody graduates with and engineering degree (if they are in the 55%), you surely produce more Rhodes scholars, etc, etc, etc. Go outside for a while and get a freaking life.
Kramer
November 20th, 2012
8:28 am
Lets face it, this is all Tech is focused on for the last 4 weeks. beat UGA and save their season and before you techies start reminding us how you get to play for the ACC championship you best send thank you cards and flowers to The U. They will bring their best on Saturday and want to ruin our season.
gt4ever
November 20th, 2012
8:37 am
I have been watching GT football for 40 years, and I would concede that anything can happen… There are two reasons we wont beat UGA Saturday. Our defense is pitiful, and our offense is going to get stuffed. It’s hard to beat an average team, with the offense we run, and NO talent on defense. It could get ugly, and the only way it’s close is if UGA lays an egg. The odds of UGA laying an egg is close to ZERO.
Alphare
November 20th, 2012
8:40 am
Tech wins this one, 45-42.
But don’t bet your house on it.
COASTAL CHAMPS vs sec east
November 20th, 2012
8:42 am
Big Game for a change.
Alphare
November 20th, 2012
8:43 am
The only obstacle for a Tech win is Paul Johnson. The guy cannot coach, and stubborn as a piece of lumber.
Oregon runs a similar offense, and they are doing just fine.
Dr. Chill
November 20th, 2012
8:44 am
Georgia 47 Gnats 17. And that’s if Georgia’s trombone section gives up a cheap touchdown late in the game.
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 20th, 2012
8:45 am
The offense we run is Powerful.
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 20th, 2012
8:45 am
68 points on the Tarheels in a road game.
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 20th, 2012
8:46 am
68 points.
gt4ever
November 20th, 2012
8:47 am
@Alphare
I would have to agree about Paul Johnson being stubborn… It will get him fired… and the sooner the better…
R
November 20th, 2012
8:48 am
What time is it?
51 to 7!!!!
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 20th, 2012
8:50 am
GT was glad to see how UGA defends the triple option.
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 20th, 2012
8:52 am
68 points on UNC.
Eunice
November 20th, 2012
8:53 am
I want Tech to win so my husband will FINALLY open that bottle of Maker’s Mark with the yellow seal…
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
8:55 am
Hey R- It is TIL, not to.
Buzz2011
November 20th, 2012
8:56 am
@Macon Dawg….The Thugs may ” gun ” this state, but they
will need guns to bring down Jacket backs as they fly past the
slow Thuga secondary.. GT 45 Humpers 22
Buzz2011
November 20th, 2012
9:00 am
@gt4ever…….You don’t even watch the games. The last two
GT wins were won as a result of second half defensive stops.
You are no GT fan… The GT offense is in the top 3 in the nation in rushing
and that alone is enough to shake the Dogs badly…….
DDT
November 20th, 2012
9:11 am
I just can’t see our D being able to keep them off the field and off the scoreboard. Try to stop those RBs and then Murray and that horde of receivers they have go to work. GT is just not anywhere near this UGA team in anything.
DDT
November 20th, 2012
9:13 am
COASTAL CHAMPS
November 20th, 2012
8:45 am
The offense we run is Powerful.
YEAH! Just ask MTSU.
GTMike14
November 20th, 2012
9:20 am
I really love it when Tech and GA fans get on the same blog. Dawgies then learn examples of how to spell and structure a sentence!
GTMike14
November 20th, 2012
9:24 am
By the way, we will lose the game. We aren’t stupid, and CPJ is arrogant.
Tony
November 20th, 2012
9:28 am
I worry because this UGA coaching staff does not have a great record of getting the Dawgs ready for big games.
drew
November 20th, 2012
9:32 am
Yeah…Tech has no chance.
Dawgs have no worries there.
They just need to focus on ‘bama.
gt4ever
November 20th, 2012
9:33 am
@Buzz2011
Just keep drinking the grape juice… I have watched almost every game in the last 40 years… I have played at this level… You and the other idiots need to get a grip.
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
9:38 am
You could have saved the “I have played at this level” card. That is relevant to what?
Doom and Gloom
November 20th, 2012
9:39 am
Who cares about the upcoming game, this loserville State will have two loses (once again) come championship time, but hey, at least someone from this State HAS to win on Saturday….. The Grim Reaper has spoken……
JB
November 20th, 2012
9:40 am
I’m not worried about Tech. They are awful. I worried about us. Richt’s teams can show up with that hung over we don’t care mode easier than ANY team in D1 Ball.
drew
November 20th, 2012
9:40 am
I’m a Tech fan, but I usually pull for UGA unless they’re playing Tech. It’s those chest thumping, woofing, arrogant, loudmouthed, deluded UGA fans that I can’t stand. I hope UGA loses for one reason…to shut up the blowhard fans that spew garbage everyday on these blogs.
As the spread indicates, UGA should win this game easily. But with a turnover or two, maybe a special teams TD, and a ball-hogging running game…it’s possible. All the pressure is on UGA…Tech’s got nothing to lose. Go Tech!
Mask of False Bravado
November 20th, 2012
9:41 am
Doom and Gloom
November 20th, 2012
9:39 am
Who cares about the upcoming game, this loserville State will have two loses
****************************************************************************************
Anyone care to take a guess as to which state can claim the above “scholar”?
Old Dog Class of 80
November 20th, 2012
9:42 am
“I worry because this UGA coaching staff does not have a great record of getting the Dawgs ready for big games.”
Hopefully the coaches are not using the same strategy that they used to prepare us to meet South Carolina.
JB
November 20th, 2012
9:48 am
Don’t think Tech’s D can even slow down Georgia on offense.Lot’s of things to cover in a balanced attack like Georgia’s. Don’t think they can handle it. Tech will get some points and yards.
Jona
November 20th, 2012
9:52 am
buzz2011….You know nothing about football
drew…..alabama does not exist until we give gt our full attention this week
Dirty Dawg
November 20th, 2012
9:54 am
Drew…Tech’s got nothing to lose? How about another loss to your biggest rival – hell, you even got us in that ‘wreck’ song of yours – what will it be, nine of the last ten, or something like that? And as for the arrogant, chest thumping stuff, seems to me you guys have done a little of it in the past – fortunately, very little. One other thing, if you can’t get to young Mr Murray, you’re in for a long day…and if you don’t stop the run any batter than than you have been, it’ll be even longer…sorry, just had to get that little ‘thump’ in.
Goldenrod
November 20th, 2012
9:58 am
We don’thave a freaking prayer!
I think I will be crying loudly on Saturday.
Kramer
November 20th, 2012
9:59 am
Hey didn’t they cancel by TV show?
GO Dawgs
Rodster
November 20th, 2012
10:01 am
No. It is not probable that tech will win. But they definitely can if UGA is not ready to play all out. If UGA players come into this game thinking they’re play a team with 5 losses that can’t possibly be as good as other competition they’ve faced, etc and etc.. They run the risk of getting embarrassed big time. It happens to someone every week in college football. UGA players and coaches, you’ve got a huge target on your chest. This is not going to be an easy game.
JB
November 20th, 2012
10:02 am
Gurley will have 150 rushing, which means few 3 and outs. Murray will pass for 300+ yards and 4 or 5 Touchdowns…………Which all equals Dawgs 45…Tech 21