Can Georgia Tech ruin UGA’s season? (Video added)
The dynamics changed Monday morning. With Miami’s decision to exclude itself from postseason play, Georgia Tech claimed the ACC Coastal Division title. So now, for the first time, Tech and Georgia will meet with both having, to borrow Paul Johnson’s pithy phrase, bigger fish to fry. Win or lose Saturday, both will play for conference championships a week later.
But these two division titlists are not equal. The Jackets are 6-5, and the best they can do is to play in the Orange Bowl. (Not that the Orange Bowl, given that Tech just nosed above .500, would be a bad deal.) The Bulldogs are 10-1, and with two more victories they will play for the BCS crown. Georgia has much more to lose. The Jackets are 14-point road underdogs against an opponent they’ve beaten once since George Godsey ran through Jim Donnan’s crew of NFL-caliber defenders in 2000.
If these teams met 10 times, Georgia would win nine. But the Jackets have only to beat Georgia once to make their season and royally roil the Bulldogs’. Lest we forget, the signature victory of Johnson’s time at Tech came in Athens on a day in 2008 when his team wasn’t supposed to win.
That this game will be staged between the hallowed hedges might actually benefit the visitors. Under Johnson, the Jackets have played better against Georgia at Sanford Stadium than off North Avenue. The worst loss — well, at least until Middle Tennessee — of his Tech tenure was against Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2009, when 10-1 Tech, which was bound for the ACC title game and ranked No. 7 in the land, lost 30-24 to the 6-5 Bulldogs. Last year’s meeting in Atlanta marked the only time Georgia has truly handled the Johnson-coached Jackets, winning 31-17.
Fun with numbers: Georgia has both the better offense (25th nationally to Tech’s 28th) and defense (20th to Tech’s 61st). But the Jackets’ rushing offense is the nation’s third-best, and the Bulldogs’ rushing defense is tepid (49th-best among 120 FBS schools). Twice in the past four meetings (in 2008 and in the frantic 2010 game, which Georgia won 42-34), Tech has rushed for more than 400 yards. And it must be noted that Georgia Southern, which is housed in a lower division, just rushed for 302 yards against these Bulldogs.
That said, it’s revealing that, under two defensive coordinators, Georgia has fared much better the second time around. Tech rushed for 409 yards against Willie Martinez’s defense in 2008; in 2009 the Jackets managed 205. Tech rushed for 411 yards against Todd Grantham’s D in 2010; in 2011 the Jackets managed 243. There are days when Johnson’s option-based spread can shred even a decent defense — North Carolina ranks in the upper half of the ACC in every major defensive category, and Tech stacked 588 yards and 68 points on the Tar Heels — but it’s hard to imagine that happening to a unit that has Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree and Jonathan Jenkins and Shawn Williams.
This Georgia defense hasn’t always played to capacity. Heck, it needed Williams’ pre-Florida “soft” declaration to boot itself into gear. Even so, Tech hasn’t faced a defense half this talented. The Bulldogs’ D would have to have a terrible day for the Tech O to have a great one. That could happen. But even if it did …
Loading ...Tech would still have to stop Georgia, and there’s the mismatch. The Jackets are working under their second defensive coordinator of the season (first Al Groh, now Charles Kelly), and even Tech’s rise to the top of the Coastal hasn’t been paved with shutdown defending. Georgia has scored 37 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and Tech has yielded 40 or more points in five of its 11.
Tech’s best-case scenario: Its offense has that great day and bleeds the clock — this happened against Duke on Saturday; Tech had five 70-yard drives and hogged the ball for 38 minutes — and renders Aaron Murray a spectator, and Georgia’s offense gets antsy when it finally takes its turn and starts turning it over. It’s not unthinkable that Tech could forge an early lead, and in a game of such importance the pressure on a trailing favorite can be immense. Witness formerly No. 1 Kansas State, just beaten 52-24 by the 4-5 Baylor Bears.
But we can forget about Georgia looking beyond Tech to Alabama (presumably) in the Dome. Mark Richt’s history reflects that his Bulldogs have struggled to beat the Jackets only once — in 2005, when Tim Jennings intercepted a Reggie Ball pass with a minute left — in the four times they’ve been bound for the SEC title game. For all the talk about Richt’s too-even keel, he has his men primed for the state championship. Even in 2008, his one loss to Tech, Georgia led 28-12 at the half.
Yes, strange things can happen in rivalry games, but not often in this rivalry. In 16 tries, Tech has never beaten a Georgia team ranked in the Top 10.(The 1927 victory over the unbeaten Bulldogs predated the AP and UPI polls.) This wouldn’t seem to be the breakthrough. Expect the Jackets to play hard and well. Expect the Bulldogs to win 35-24.
Further reading: Heat Check – hot ‘Dogs face a warm swarm of Yellow Jackets.
Oh, and not to say I told you so: Pigskin’ pickin – Tech wins its division; Georgia takes the SEC.
Say what you will about Mark Richt, but he does own Georgia Tech. (AJC photo by Brant Sanderlin)
By Mark Bradley
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679 comments Add your comment
UGA = Yawn
November 19th, 2012
10:09 pm
E it’s harder to graduate from an engineering school that has few majors that ‘cater’ to athletes. State universities have many more options for athletes to get their degrees.
BigJim
November 19th, 2012
10:09 pm
Hey Steve….way to go with the name calling. Tat’s real mature buddy. Richt won SEC Championships in 2002 and 2005. Since then…not too much. What he has done has become a regular at the 2nd tier bowls like the Capital One, Outback, and Liberty Bowls. He’s also become quite adept at beating DIV II opponents Georgia will schedule and pay big money to beat…although Buffalo almost beat them this year. Guess you’re happy with the status quo, huh buddy. And thanks for resorting to name calling. That says a lot!
E
November 19th, 2012
10:09 pm
Erk, we know how lovely Shreveport is in December. Just ask Texas A&M. Whoa. I just referenced a bowl win from 2009. Which was after the last time Tech beat Georgia.
Erk Russell's Dog
November 19th, 2012
10:09 pm
All Tech fans invited over to CPJ’S house for a fish fry and drink from ACC Coastal Championship Red Solo Cup.
JP
November 19th, 2012
10:10 pm
Under the bleachers. The answer to your trivia question. When has UGA done everything wrong?
answer: South Carolina 35 UGA 7. When has GT done everything right? Answer: GT 68 North
Carolina 50. Not to long ago as we recall.
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
10:10 pm
E
November 19th, 2012
10:06 pm
The site I linked to specifies football. Do they not teach reading comprehension in engineering schools?
When you address me, you shall call me sir or boss!
Jim
November 19th, 2012
10:11 pm
Lets Review — Lets not forget Joe Hamilton
List Mama » Georgia Tech claims spot in ACC title game at 6-5 – USA TODAY
November 19th, 2012
10:11 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
UGA = Yawn
November 19th, 2012
10:12 pm
I think Godhigh is a great player and so is Laskey. Our running backs seem to do really well so we need to run up the yards and points!
Erk Russell's Dog
November 19th, 2012
10:12 pm
Big Jim
If Uga could only drop Tech and schedule a tough school such as Middle Tennessee State.
E
November 19th, 2012
10:12 pm
Show me the majors that your “student-athletes” are struggling with, Mr. Yawn. I’m not claiming that UGA jocks are smarter than Tech jocks. I’m saying that you have no moral high ground. 65% rate to 55% rate is a huge difference.
BigJim
November 19th, 2012
10:13 pm
Facts don’t lie…Mark Richt and the Dawgs are 3-15 against ranked opponents since 2009! As Steve points out…why don’t we look further back? Hmmmm…are coaches rewarded for winning in 2003? Or winning now? That’s a pretty easy answer…just go ask Derek Dooley, Steve! Lose to Bama in the Georgia Dome and Richt will be 3-16 against ranked teams, since 2009…AND…back in the Dawgs’ favorite Bowl–The Capital One Bowl!! Yeah baby!!
Ellijay
November 19th, 2012
10:14 pm
Smokin Joe Hamilton
UGA = Yawn
November 19th, 2012
10:15 pm
I can’t remember what year it was but the game was in Athens. We lined up to kick a field goal at the end of the game to win. I can never tell if the kick is in or just out, but that year, our band was in that end zone. The kick went up and all the band started jumping uncontrollably. I knew we had won. What an ending. I’ll take on just like that Saturday!!!
Lets Review
November 19th, 2012
10:16 pm
Jan Kemp, Jim Harrick, Damon Evans, …
UGA = Yawn
November 19th, 2012
10:16 pm
Most of out athletes only have a few non-engineering choices for majors. Your school has a dozen or two. Saturday is not about graduation rates though so not sure why you even brought it up. It’s about GT winning at the very end of the game. That would be sweet.
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
10:17 pm
@Lets Review
Player suspended for “eating brownies with pot in them”
Player removed for filing off serial numbers from a gun
Player suspended for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Player 2 suspened for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Player 3 suspened for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Players suspended for a game for hitting woman
Players suspended for over half the season for steroid usage.
Lost to USC for multiple years
Lost to UCF two years ago
Lost to Colorado who fired their coach the same year
Lost 9 out of the last 11 games against top 20 teams
Red Panties by the Dawg Supreme leader
Assistant Coach choke sign to player
Assistant Coach wants to fight a head coach
Want More?
—————————————————————————————————————————–
Still managed to beat Georgia Tech like a pinata 10 out of the last 11 and 25 of the last 32 years.Never lost to Middle Tennesee St..Since Georgia beats Tech like a pinata yearly its fans never have to waste time blogging about non football related issues.Georgia fans also never have to hide behind other teams that beat Tech because our team beats them like a pinata yearly.So we leave the dirty jock sniffing to Tech fans.Want more?
UGA = Yawn
November 19th, 2012
10:18 pm
And I’m not ‘Mr Yawn’. UGA = Yawn!!! UGA is so 1980. lol
E
November 19th, 2012
10:18 pm
Mr. Yawn, those types of memories I can appreciate. No need to tear anybody down. Root for your team. I’ll root for mine.
E
November 19th, 2012
10:19 pm
I brought up graduation rates because Mr. Review brought up graduation rates.
VFP42
November 19th, 2012
10:20 pm
Get your watch out. Undefeeted Nummer One and Nummer Two both just lost to nobodies so surely a One Lost Already Nummer Three can lose again even if there knowbody is just GT (get it knowbody beacuse they so smart on North ave)
Rick James
November 19th, 2012
10:21 pm
@Lets Review
Player suspended for “eating brownies with pot in them”
Player removed for filing off serial numbers from a gun
Player suspended for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Player 2 suspened for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Player 3 suspened for a third of the season for multiple drug test failures
Players suspended for a game for hitting woman
Players suspended for over half the season for steroid usage.
Lost to USC for multiple years
Lost to UCF two years ago
Lost to Colorado who fired their coach the same year
Lost 9 out of the last 11 games against top 20 teams
Red Panties by the Dawg Supreme leader
Assistant Coach choke sign to player
Assistant Coach wants to fight a head coach
Want More?
————————————————————————–
Oh yeah..In spite of all this garbage Tech like always will lose Saturday
DwayneL
November 19th, 2012
10:22 pm
If Tech doesn’t ruin it Bama will soon! UGA overrated as always.
E
November 19th, 2012
10:24 pm
Good God almighty Mr. VFP42. Relax. You’re acting like you’re on al.com. Try some civility.
E
November 19th, 2012
10:26 pm
And Mr. Fake Review, you’re making the real Let’s Review look a genius. Just stop.
DawgTillDeath
November 19th, 2012
10:29 pm
to VFP42 : Stanford and Baylor are not nobodies, GT is a nobody. Also you can’t be very smart if you even walk down North Avenue.
Cobb Dawg
November 19th, 2012
10:30 pm
Anything’s possible in CFB. But a Tech win in Athens, with all that’s at stake for UGA, is pretty unlikely. This is a Tech team that lost to MTSU 49-28. Tech might hang around for a quarter, maybe two. But the Dawgs are now a mean and hungry bunch. Dawgs – 41, Wreck – 17.
UGA = Yawn
November 19th, 2012
10:35 pm
If you knew anything about GT sports – you would know our team is never motivated to play the MTSU’s of the world. I’m not sure why we schedule them. The fans aren’t interested and the team definitely isn’t interested. I would propose scoring 68 on the road at UNC shows that we are a decent team. Saturday if the luck rols our way, it could be an interesting game.
E
November 19th, 2012
10:37 pm
That sound you just heard was the terrible joke going right over Mr. DawgTillDeath’s head.
Ellijay
November 19th, 2012
10:37 pm
Did Calvin Johnson ever finish building that advanced toilet he was talking about? You tech guys are weird talking about molesting children.
gy6
November 19th, 2012
10:38 pm
right thinking people can only hope so.
Craig Boddy
November 19th, 2012
10:39 pm
GT puts up 51 against the Dogs defense? Are you kidding me? If they get 21, I’ll be shocked. I’m not a Dogs fan or Jackets; I just follow football closely. Tech will play hard; Dogs will play hard, but in the end, true talent wins, and in this one, the Dogs will most decisively win again. Take it to the bank.
Peach Fuzz
November 19th, 2012
10:41 pm
Not many teams in SEC have better offense than UNC. Pro scouts evaluate UNC as having better Oline than Bama. Bernard is thought to be first back chosen in draft. UNC receiving corp probably better that UGa’s. And QB Renner is arguably equal to Murray. UNC run defense has been good in every game except Tech game. That said, if Tech plays against UGa as efficiently as it did against UNC, it could be a very good game.
E
November 19th, 2012
10:49 pm
Mr. Peach Fuzz, I went and compared the states of Murray and Renner. You’re right, they are fairly close. I didn’t have a chance to watch the Tech-UNC game, but I noticed that UNC scored 50 points that game. Do you think if UGA scores that many that Tech has a chance?
lol
November 19th, 2012
11:15 pm
E….as long as GT scores 51
SCJacket
November 19th, 2012
11:19 pm
This may have been commented to already, but U(sic)GA also was held to under 37 points by Kentucky.
Mark Bradley
November 19th, 2012
11:30 pm
True, SCJacket. Thanks.
David Sanders
November 20th, 2012
12:01 am
Why even bring this up? UGA will kick their A$$. I mean really?
Kennesaw David
November 20th, 2012
12:05 am
Rivalry game, so UGA needs to show up. And squash the bugs.
Smitty
November 20th, 2012
12:11 am
Dawgs have the most to play for I hope they show up again….Go Dawgs
Kennesaw David
November 20th, 2012
12:12 am
Sometimes you are the windshield, sometimes you are the bug. Yellow Jackets are the bug.
Smitty
November 20th, 2012
12:13 am
Tech Runs a good FCS offense. Maybe they could give Ga Southern a good game….
Smitty
November 20th, 2012
12:17 am
Peach Fuzz….stop smoking the wackie weed….
Kennesaw David
November 20th, 2012
12:17 am
Tech vs Georgia Southern. Now that would be an interesting game.
Smitty
November 20th, 2012
12:21 am
Only problem for Tech is Ga Southern is better than Middle Tennessee State and MTSU beat Tech by 28….
Sargent Carter
November 20th, 2012
12:24 am
Trust me I don’t want this to happen…but view this…Georgia has a number 3 ranking for the first time in a long time…The spoily brat 4 star and 5 star side of the team comes out..pan to Ga. Tech and Paul Johnson…Johnson geeks team up with “no respect” speech…Tech comes out of tunnel with eyes all crazy and hair all static standing out everywhere….UGA comes onto field out of tunnel literally dancing and posing and sashaying onto field…(think Alabama-Georgia and black jerseys)…midway through 2nd quarter…look up at scoreboard…$#@%**)&, Ga. Tech 35, UGA 7…what happens after that? only Nick Saban knows
Smitty
November 20th, 2012
12:27 am
Sargent Carter….you are not smoking dope…you are on something harder…
Georgia Tech claims spot in ACC title game at 6-5 – MiamiHerald.com (registration) | Blog Mas Rifky
November 20th, 2012
2:51 am
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
Just Saying..
November 20th, 2012
4:00 am
Oh, Hell Yes!!
Ellijay
November 20th, 2012
5:26 am
I see a WE Run this STATE sign in the near future. Gooooo Dawgs!