Here’s why the Falcons’ Smith should have gone for two
To borrow from the great Louisianan Joe Dean Sr.: "Tony G. plays a little stufferino." (AP photo)
This post is an adjunct to the Falcons-Saints game column, which can be found here.
1. Mike Smith erred in not going for two after the Falcons cut the lead to 28-23. Smith’s position was that, with 13:57 remaining, it was too early. “You don’t even start looking at the 2-point chart until there’s seven minutes to go,” he said. But a 2-point conversion would have drawn the Falcons within a field goal, and the successful 1-pointer pulled them only within four, which is essentially the same as being down five: You still need a touchdown (or two field goals) to take the lead. And a successful 2-pointer would have left the Falcons within tying range on their final three possessions.
2. You might never see a better duel of tight ends. The Saints’ Jimmy Graham caught seven passes for 146 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcons’ Tony Gonzalez caught 11 passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns. (Gonzalez’s were the 100th and 101st touchdowns of his distinguished career.) Both tight ends played college basketball — Graham at Miami, Gonzalez at California — and both punctuated touchdowns this given Sunday by dunking over the crossbar. Asked if he ever worries about getting too old to dunk, Graham said: “I’m 6-foot-7. I’ll always be able to do that.”
3. The league’s least-penalized team hurt itself badly. Asante Samuel intercepted Drew Brees’ first pass and returned the ball to the Saints’ 12 but was flagged for excessive celebration, a penalty not often assessed in the NFL. Pushed back to the 27, the Falcons wound up kicking a field goal to lead 10-0 after five-plus minutes. As any coach will tell you, there’s a big difference between 10-0 and 14-0. And when the Saints punted inside the final minute, a holding penalty on Lawrence Sidbury moved the Falcons from their 41 to the 31 with 37 seconds remaining — another significant reversal at another significant moment.
Further reading: Bill Barnwell of ESPN’s Grantland on why Mike Smith should have gone for two.
Further still: Chase Stuart of Football Perspective — I really like Football Perspective, by the way — on why Mike Smith should have gone for two.
And even further: Jason Lisk of The Big Lead on why Mike Smith’s bigger error was on the next possession.
And further again: A Football Commentary chart on when you really should go for two.
By Mark Bradley
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197 comments Add your comment
Tuggle58
November 12th, 2012
7:59 am
@Loyal Falcon – great point, I was screaming “hit the legs” at the TV the entire game!
Mark, there is a reason you are a writer and MS is the coach. He made the right call on the conversion. My problem is with Dirk. We running in running formations and passing in passing formations all game. The goal line would have been a great time to mix it up. Deja Vu all over again. We lost because of our inability to gain a yard. Hated that our loss came to the Saints, but we have a lot of season left. GO BIRDS!
nbrdrdnk
November 12th, 2012
8:05 am
UGH… those three haunting words again: fourth and one.
RB for Hire
November 12th, 2012
8:06 am
The weak ground game finally bit us in the backside. This is my fear for when the playoffs start. No QB pressure and no run game. When we play the best of the best in the playoffs those two areas have to step it up. I am pretty sure Turner is washed up, so I am worried. REALLY need to address this during off-season to keep moving forward. For now, doctor it up by using heavy doses of Snelling and Rodgers. Use Julio and Harry Douglas more out the backfield.
Ivan
November 12th, 2012
8:07 am
Of all the negatives to pull away from this game, going for 2 is not one of them.
Turner = 15 yards.
Unable to convert 3rd/4th and short
Allowing the Saints offense to move the ball at will, running over our Defense.
Ivan
November 12th, 2012
8:12 am
At least now we can all agree Mularkey was not the problem on our short yardage woes.
loyal falcon
November 12th, 2012
8:12 am
There is no need to panic because we have plenty of football left to play. I have no doubt that we’ll get things corrected. Dirk definitely has to switch things up a bit. This one only bothers me because of the team we lost to. We just have to put this one behind us and get ready for Arizona. Oh and to all of you fans of the team we lost to talking about yall winning 11 out of the last 13 remember we still are ahead in the series 45-41.
Ed Pilcher
November 12th, 2012
8:17 am
Thanks for giving us the Kiss of Death yesterday, MB.
Stepchild
November 12th, 2012
8:17 am
Problem is and continues to be Mike Smith. He is a deer in headlights when it comes to the Saints. His knee jerk reaction last year to all of a sudden and be aggressive and “go for it” on 4th and short with no regard for field position (deep in your own territory)…just shows how blind and stupid he can get with this rivalry.
Now yesterday he errs on the conservative side and is WRONG again. What would the Falcons do with a competent coach? He is the equivalent of Jason Garrett.
Alfred Jenkins
November 12th, 2012
8:19 am
@ Nativebird…..you hit the nail on the head, whenever he starts calling plays we lose.
Double Zero Eight
November 12th, 2012
8:21 am
No pass rush + no running game = loss
Mr. Hankey
November 12th, 2012
8:24 am
Asante is olde enough to know better but apparently not able to control is juvenile emotions. What a total turd for acting that way. There’s other words that might be considered as slurs that fit his behavior. I was wondering about the 2 pointer myself. Dumb mistake. Look what playing by the “book” got Bobby Cox. 1 world series. Didn’t know you have “no choice” but to go for 1 until you reach the 7 minute mark. News to me. I thought you did what was best for team. That being said se la vis. We tee it up next week. Screw the national talkies. Does anybody reaaly care what Bayless says? I mean he’s as big a joke as they come and I ‘m sure enjoys the occasional golden shower. Skp? Really?
DP
November 12th, 2012
8:26 am
Uh no, being down 5 isn’t the same thing as being down 4 with 13:57 left in the game. If you’re down 5 and New Orleans kicks a field goal you’re down 8 so you need not only a touchdown but a 2 point conversion to tie. Smith is right, you don’t start chasing points with 2 point conversions early in the 4th quarter, particularly in a game where 2 high scoring offenses are going up and down the field. And as usual, Mark Bradley is wrong.
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
November 12th, 2012
8:26 am
The Saints are to the Falcons what the South Carolina Gamecocks are to UGA. Neither team can beat them.
NORRIS CHUCK
November 12th, 2012
8:27 am
Mr Bradley,
Why are you stuck on that 2 pt conversion thing when they had 13 minutes left in the game. Man im really glad you are not the coach!
No matter that the Saints recievers were celebrating EXCESSIVELY the whole game and never got a flag.
No matter that the D couldnt touch Brees.
No matter that the D-Backs couldnt tackle.
The Falcons lost this game because of Fatman Turner. This has been going on for a couple of years now. I dont care how writers try on explian things, the Falcons are not going to get far if their star running back takes 5 seconds to get to the line of scrimmage and then folds up when the team needs a yard!
Red Zone football
November 12th, 2012
8:27 am
The # 1 issue is ineffective red zone offense – we scored 3 TDs in 6 attempts – kicked 2 FGs and turned it over on downs.
And….
The worst defense in NFL history (statistically speaking) was able to…
1. stuff our run game (we had 46 yds) Saints are ranked 32nd in the league vs the run
2. held us to 50% in the red-zone
3. broke up 11 passes!!!
So…As good as Ryan played – 100+ QBR, he’s got to play better in the red-zone AND on the road.
I know Julio was out for half he game and banged up – but we’ve got weapons. Need balls in better positions to keep from getting break-ups…
Offensive line/Turner – just plain awful. Is it time to give Rodgers the job??? Where is the hard- running Snelling in the mix ???
Special teams/penalties – I think I counted 3-4 penalties on special teams yesterday. That’s got to have Smith steamed…Asante’s showboating was a killer as well, knowning how skiddish we can be in the red zone…
Last – The good news. The Giants and Bears looked just awful, and they are in my opinion the NFC front runners, despite our record. We are 8-1. As Herm Edwards says///We are what our record says we are. 8-1 is still very, very good.
The bad news. We will see a team like the Saints in the playoffs. (probably the Packers – remember those guys ??) We have got to improve our red-zone efficiency – against the worst defense in NFL history – it did not get done.
At the end of the day, playoff wins define Matt Ryan and this team. That environment is as close as we will get, and we did not get it done.
Saints Aint Bad
November 12th, 2012
8:30 am
Mighty Falcons lose to a 3 win team and can,t score from the 1 yard line on 4 tries, lmao!
Drew Breesus
November 12th, 2012
8:33 am
What’s funny is that falcon fans are acting like this is an aberration! “I can’t believe we lost to the Aints”, “The Aint’s suck and we couldn’t beet this team”? Here is a little history lesson-the Saints have beat the facons 11 out of the last 13 times. One of those falcon wins was due to a missed field goal under 40 yards. The aberration would be if the falcons won! You may not like the Saints (and there are plenty of reasons why you shouldn’t), but let’s be real. The saints have owned this team since 2006 and despite your great starts and record, the story never changes. Until we meet again in a few days or so after we take a trip to the black hole and payback those niners.
Growler
November 12th, 2012
8:33 am
I brought this up on the blog DURING the game right after it happened (Mark B. noted as much and you can go find it there). For those of you agreeing with the head coach — that it was too early to go for 2 — and bashing Mark B. for saying otherwise, please note that — despite the Falcons’ own Red Zone woes that day, they had given up FOUR TOUCHDOWNS by that point. Ironically, the teams did trade FG’s after that — but that was some mighty presumptive logic by Smith, at that point in the game, to think the 2 pt. try wasn’t necessary.
There’s also the larger issue (which I think Mark DOESN’T agree with me on), on Smith’s erratic decisions on when he does or doesn’t gamble,along with clock management and play-calling in specific situations — especially at the end of the half or game. I fear this will come back to haunt them in the playoffs. I hope I’m wrong.
NORRIS CHUCK
November 12th, 2012
8:39 am
This is a post by ivorydorsey, posted earlier this morning from the AJC top page. Loved it so i had to re-post:
“CONGRATULATIONS FALCONS!!! YOU HAVE DEMONSTRATED THAT YOU ARE SERIOUS CONTENDERS. While “undefeated” is not a part of your 2012 mantra, the loss will serve to “sharpen” your contender muscle. Monday morning quarterbacking is a real safe space for those not in the game!! You are in the game!! I BELIEVE YOU ARE IN IT TO “WIN IT!!”
“(YOU DAT)!!” D-determined A-activated & T-trained to WIN!!”
Thanks ivory!
NORRIS CHUCK
November 12th, 2012
8:44 am
The worst defense in NFL history (statistically speaking) was able to…
1. stuff our run game (we had 46 yds) Saints are ranked 32nd in the league vs the run
2. held us to 50% in the red-zone
3. broke up 11 passes!!!
Redzone,
Great observation. David Rogers, Peyton and Eli would eat the Falcons up. And as we saw yesterday, Drew had the Falcons D falling all over the place yesterday. Good to Great QB’s destroy defenses like the Falcons.
And 11 pass breakups is not good either.
Ken Norman
November 12th, 2012
8:44 am
I like Mike Smith as the Falcons head coach, but if the Falcons fail to win a game in the playoffs, especially lose a game like they did yesterday, I don’t think Mike Smith survives another year, because Arthur Blank is a very successful businessman and he’s not going to stand for an underachieving football team. Bill Cowher or John Gruden anyone.
PMC
November 12th, 2012
8:45 am
You’re nuts on the 2pt conversion idea Mark. He played it correctly.
His offense had 2 chances to get it done late and they wet the freaking bed. Matter of fact they wet the bed all day in the red zone.
People kicking themselves today include the GM who found out he’s a RB short, 2 LB’s short at least and still has an offensive line that isn’t remotely good enough.
Yes this is a criticism of an 8-1 team but a team that can’t for the freaking life of them beat it’s biggest rival.
Georgia
November 12th, 2012
8:45 am
Look, half the eight Falcon victories were ugly wins. It’s the play calling. It’s the execution. It’s the arrogance of a team so undisciplined, that they celebrate in the first quarter? and if Smith doesn’t understand why the two point conversion was necessary in THAT situation, then we don’t have a playoff team.
It’s not monday morning quarterbacking. It’s the game we all know and love. I can’t believe they lost that football game just as much as I couldn’t believe they won some of the eight victories.
Atlanta has another also ran football team, folks. Accept it.
Stepchild
November 12th, 2012
8:46 am
Ivory nice post….it really makes us feel good that we lost that game – - – Falcons choke off another game to the Saints and our soft fanbase who head for the exits quickly (like at the Carolina game this year) offer up feel good nonsense.
Meebo_is_the_Devil
November 12th, 2012
8:47 am
Given the utter ineptitude on 3rd/4th and short, I doubt they would’ve converted the two-pointer anyway. Also, Smith was right about the amount of time left in the game. There were several more possessions after that point, so there were many different ways things could’ve gone after that point. The primary issue was ATL’s inability to score TDs deep in the red zone and therefore settling for fgs… something you cannot do against an offense like NO’s. I don’t think a two-pointer just a couple of minutes into the fourth qtr is what lost the game.
PMC
November 12th, 2012
8:47 am
If you’re going to kill them for anything kill them for keeping 2 safeties that have no freaking clue that they are the last man, the last line of defense and yet they ALWAYS EVERY FREAKING TIME Jump the slant and take bad angles. Great ballhawks, with horrible technique.
Beat Mike Smith up this week for his team playing largely terrible against the Saints everytime and being absolutely totally and completely unprepared for the playoffs.
Turner burned out
November 12th, 2012
8:48 am
Michael Turner deserves a lot of credit, but his time as an elite RB is over. Much like Priest Holmes, Tomlinson and others, the window has closed. Can he still be effective? Yes, but coming off the sidelines instead of being a 1st and 2nd down back. The Giants use Brown and Bradshaw. Time for Atlanta to make Quizz the No. 1 runner and alternate between Snelling and Turner. Wouldn’t you rather have 8 yards every third play than 1 yard, 1 yard and 2 yards on three straight.
Meebo_is_the_Devil
November 12th, 2012
8:49 am
If you want to blame anything specifically, how bout an O-line that is simply incapable of generating ANY push forward in 1-yd-to-go situations. That’s what lost that game.
Stepchild
November 12th, 2012
8:50 am
Mike Smith deserves some blame for all of these big game flops. This is becoming a habit around here. . . playoffs are around the corner and an early exit might cost him his job.
tooltime234
November 12th, 2012
8:50 am
Yeah I agree with some of the folks here. It’s too early to go for two and it always seems like leaving points on the board does come back to bite you. They couldn’t get one yard to win the game. Roddy stoped running or we would have won the game. This was not the reason we lost the game. If he goes for two here and we didn’t make it, we are all blasting Mike Smith for going for two so early in the 4th quarter.
Robert
November 12th, 2012
8:50 am
Look…., here is the stat the sums this all up.
If you take out Turners one big run against the cowboys(43yds). He is averaging 2.72 yards per carry over the last 5 games. 2.72!!!!!!
You can’t tell me Quizz or Snelling wouldn’t do better.
We cut Polite after 1 missed catch and bad blitz pickup, but Turner keeps going, does Turner offer anything inthe passing game? Snelling and Quizz from here out and our run games becomes at least adequate
PMC
November 12th, 2012
8:51 am
It’s not playcalling, the playcalling has been awesome. It’s talent.
This team is playing vastly better because the coaching has been better. The talent is still substandard.
The LB’s on the field yesterday are probably the worst set of linebackers in the league. Without Spoon, they aren’t very good. The defensive ends, are very average. Beirmann has been awesome this year. Ray Edwards is a waste of a roster spot not to mention millions of dollars of wasted cap room
Bum is too nice a word for Ray Edwards. The offensive line is better because of coaching. The talent is still WAY off where it needs to be and we are in dier need of a young talented RB with some size. Quizz is a great 3rd down back he’s not a starter.
Stepchild
November 12th, 2012
8:52 am
Struggle to win against Carolina, Lose to the Saints…..Tampa Bay??????? Oh boy.
colelinski
November 12th, 2012
8:53 am
If you cn’t block tou can’t run.
bobbie brooks
November 12th, 2012
8:53 am
Maybe your team needs to quit boasting that they are better than everyone else, and prove it.
PMC
November 12th, 2012
8:53 am
Write a column about Ray Edwards Mark, maybe you can find out which injury he’s nursing this season as an excuse for why he’s awful.
tooltime234
November 12th, 2012
8:53 am
PMC I agree with you. Quizz is like a Sproles mold kind of player. Not an every down back.
Ted M
November 12th, 2012
8:57 am
I can’t think of a team in the league that has a worse starting running back then the Falcons.
If the don’t find a ground game they won’t win in the playoffs.
Answer This
November 12th, 2012
8:58 am
A few things first…..
1. 8-1………….enough said I could stop here but let me go on!
2. Lead the division
3. Aints 4-5……….stop celebrating……….
Now for the truth!
1. The two points did not matter! Would not have mattered if we missed it hind sight is 20/20…..half dozen in one hand 6 in the other…..who knows, I know you can say you dont know if you dont try. Lots of arguements both ways.
2. What matters is that we trusted MT33 to take the ball and ram his fat angus up in the hole to get one yard and he could not do it……like last year. Did anyone else notice that in the last 4 minutes of the game he did not see the field!? Hey Coach Smith, stop being loyal and start playing to win! MT33 let us down in a situation like that last year and when he did not get it the first time you gave him the opportunity he DID NOT DESERVE a 2nd TIME! PERIOD! Wise up!
3. Yes Samuels hurt us on the penalty, but emotions run high! Who knows if we would have scored or not? Remember half dozen, 6 in the other hand!
4. We had three more opportunities to scorea touchdown and had to settle for a field goal! Cant do that against the Aints, as much as I hate to say it!
5. Ryan you had a beast of a day! INCREDIBLE day; but I ask one thing and one thing only, you got to get the ball out just a little quicker and in front of the receiver when you take shots in the end zone from the 5 yard line. Those guys play on the receivers hip, and sometimes you got to make your receiver go get it a yard in front………but hey I cant say nothing about you really YOU HAD A BEAST OF A DAY!
6. Roddy next time dont look for the jump ball run through the route and you break these Swamp Rats hearts!
7. MT33 never gets another shot with-in the 10 yard line…….PERIOD. Any line that can hold up for the QB to throw for 400+ yards is not the problem! The problem is getting 13 touches and having 16 yards! MT33 I cant keep bashing you but your time has come and gone.
8. Yes our D got trucked in the first half but we made adjustments and gave up only 10 points in the second half, 3 points in the 4th quarter! No one has said our D was world beaters but we have a Coordinator that is smart enough to stop the bleeding and make adjustments and keep us in the game with in-game adjustments………o year Ray Edwards, MT 33 and you have a free plane ticket at the end of the year waiting on you, thanks for wearing black every month to pick up your check. Way to hold up and not fold D! You made the adjustments you had to make to keep yourself standing up! You know that every week you will get a full dose of a running game, so prep yourself and get ready!
9. We still RISE UP around here! We still show you all that the Nation does not die we just multiply! I wanted it bad on Sunday but we move on to the Cards and we will see you AINTS again, trust me!
10. 8-1 and we lead the division! NOW WHAT?!?!?!
colelinski
November 12th, 2012
9:00 am
Did anyone notice how the Saints o-line blew the Falcons d-line of the balll? I’ll even bet M.Turner
could run behind that line.
groundedbird
November 12th, 2012
9:00 am
falcons sucks,they will not make it too the superbowl. no running game=no passing game.saints have a 3 headed monster @ running back which opens up the pass & defense gives up 2 many big plays.hate it for A.blanks
Georgia
November 12th, 2012
9:03 am
Also note how the excessive celebration unhinged Coach Smith. He became unfocused and subsequent play calling suffered. That call, after the excessive celebration, and it was third and short in the red zone? Please. A straight ahead off tackle run? Easily defended. I mean look closely at THAT play because that was where we lost the game. It was a fatal momentum shifter: the entire episode of the penalty for excessive cabbage patching, (which I hate worse than the devil), the unscrambling of Coach Smith as he turned red as a beet, and then the absolute worst play call of the last fifty years in all of football including high school, pop warner, college, the lingerie league, and of course, the canadian football league.
Mike from the Coast
November 12th, 2012
9:07 am
I agree with going for 1, again as many have said. There were two opportunities to score later, the one point kept us in a situation where had we scored a TD, then another one point gives us a 3 point lead.
The problem is Michael Turner, he seems to think he is Ladanian Tomlinson, he doesn’t have the moves. How many times did we see Ivery pound the ball in and move the pile another two-three yards. Turner needs to pound the ball in there and use his legs to move the pile.
Third and one is killing us whether we are on the goal line or in the middle of the field.
PMC
November 12th, 2012
9:09 am
The other thing is that even though Tuner can still play a little, he’s completely the wrong style of back for Koetter’s offense. He’s a hammer, and he needs a fairly large hole to get going, Koetter needs a quicker, back that can catch the ball and get through the line, like MJD, or Forte.
Turner is not that guy. We’re a DE, LB, and RB short right now.
Georgia
November 12th, 2012
9:11 am
Playcalling? Did someone say it’s not the playcalling? Look, every game is different. The playcalling has to evolve as the game progresses. What’s appropriate in the first quarter, is inappropriate in the second or third, even though the down and yards to go is identical. It depends on the score. It depends on what you did in a similar third and short in the first quarter, second and then third. It’s not really a gut thing, it’s an experience thing. And throwing away timeouts is a sacrilege. There must be coaches’ souls burning in purgatory for the sins they committed on third and short with thirty seconds to go, the score tied, no timeouts left……..
falcons fan
November 12th, 2012
9:11 am
this team will not go far in the play offs until they run the ball, which means stop calling tuner up the middle for no gain
Najeh Davenpoop
November 12th, 2012
9:11 am
Y’all stay blaming Mike Smith for these close losses when the problems almost always lie with personnel. If you are one yard away from the end zone, you need to be able to power it in, period.
If Mike Smith deserves any blame, it is for the penalties, which killed the Falcons in this game and are generally a reflection on the coaching staff’s ability to prepare the team.
TN Jeff
November 12th, 2012
9:13 am
Thanks for pointing out what needed to be pointed out – 2 point conversion vital. This stupid chart that coaches live by if in fact advised NOT to go for 2 is for the birds (or in the case NOT for the Birds). Down 4 points or 5 points still necessitates a TD. Nothing to lose and a chance at NOT losing (which under Smith I hear the Falcons have done 7 out of 9 chances). Not sure if this poor judgment was more irritating or the moron announcers urging the Birds to run rather than fly to the endzone.
Noles Fan
November 12th, 2012
9:15 am
Turner should have been gone at the beginning of the year. Need to start Rodgers more. Turner stops and falls down too much, just Run!!
Georgia
November 12th, 2012
9:17 am
No. Smith should have known to go for 2. Were were Blanked in the third quarter. Points were becomming scarce. That’s the way this particular game was evolving. You have to play the game and take the points you’re given. Especially if the end game boils down to going for a tie with a 3 pointer. It’s everything in the game of football. Everything. Smith failed this crucial test. There is one other reason we lost. The Saints cheated, man. Those horrid saints beat our falcons by cheating. They cheated!! They were holding and biting and kicking in the clinches. Their cheerleaders went commando in the second half. That’s why we didn’t score till the fourth quarter. I want a review by the NFL commissioner!!! It’s not fair.