Could the Falcons really go 16-0? Nobody seems to think so
Is Thomas DeCoud signaling that he feels his team has an 0.5 percent chance to finish 16-0? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
The Falcons are halfway to an undefeated regular season almost nobody thinks will happen. Football Outsiders puts the chances of the Falcons going 16-0 at either 0.9 percent or 1.1 percent, depending on which FO index you check. Football Perspective, a more charitable numbers-driven web site, puts the likelihood of perfection at 3.3 percent.
We’ve already seen a slew of articles suggesting the Falcons aren’t as good as their record — I know; I wrote one of them – and the intent today isn’t to revisit that discussion. (But I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Football Outsiders, in its Efficiency Ratings, ranks the 8-0 Falcons only the league’s ninth-best team; Aaron Schatz notes that the Falcons’ Defensive-weighted Value Over Average number is the worst of any 8-0 team ever.) Our focus is on the eight remaining games.
USA Today informs us that the Falcons are the 20th team since 1966, when the first Super Bowl was played, to be 8-0. (From 1966-77, seasons lasted 14 games.) You’re aware that only two teams — the 1972 Dolphins and the 2007 Patriots — completed a regular season unbeaten. USA Today, with help from the busy Football Outsiders, also breaks down the hurdles over which previous unbeatens tripped, Games No. 11 (four teams lost) and 14 (four more) being the most treacherous.
But here we veer from advanced analytics and turn to a rather basic set of numbers — the NFL standings. Of the Falcons’ final eight games, only one will come against a team currently above .500. (The Giants, who play here on Dec. 16, are 6-3.) Three more games feature an opponent at .500. The other four offer sub-.500 opposition.
That’s a slightly toughened version of the the season’s first half, which featured one opponent that currently holds a winning record (Denver); one at .500 (San Diego) and six with losing records. And now we ask: Of the remaining eight games, which looks scariest? (Remember: The Falcons still must play New Orleans and Tampa Bay twice apiece.)
The Saints? They’re playing without their head coach, whose contractual status even while he’s not coaching has become an issue, and they’re on pace to have the worst defense in NFL history. The Cardinals? Once 4-0, they’ve lost five straight. The Panthers? The Falcons saw them already and took what might have been their best shot.
The Giants? They’re good, but they’ve also lost to Dallas and Philadelphia, teams the Falcons just handled. The Lions? They’ve been one of the league’s bigger duds and, with two games against Green Bay and one against Houston to come before they face the Falcons, they could be out of it by Dec. 22.
That leaves, improbably, Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were 4-12 last season, the last of those losses a 45-24 embarrassment in the Georgia Dome. They’re 4-4, having won three of four and not having lost to anybody by more than seven points. Unlike Bucs teams of recent vintage, they’re better on offense than defense — they’ve gained only two fewer yards than have the Falcons — and the 5-foot-9 rookie Doug Martin has rushed for 386 yards in the past two games.
On Sunday the Falcons play in New Orleans, and they well recall Drew Brees and his rub-it-in record. The Falcons would be stoked to play the Saints if both were 0-8. Next is a return to the Dome to face Arizona, which appears to have nothing left. Then it’s down to Tampa the Sunday after Thanksgiving. If I had to take a wide-angle guess at where the first loss will occur, I’d say it’ll happen Nov. 25 in the stadium with the pirate ship in the perilous Game 11.
Loading ...Granted, this all could be moot come 4:10 p.m. Sunday. The Saints could do the deed. (Though I, not being a fan of historically awful defenses, doubt it.) Or the Falcons, advanced analytics be darned, could rattle off another eight and become the worst 16-0 team ever. And here the aging historian in me recalls that, even as the only NFL entry ever to finish as an undefeated champion was going about its business, doubt held some sway.
The ‘72 Dolphins went 14-0 against a schedule that included — see if this sounds familiar — two opponents that finished above .500, and neither of those made the playoffs. They’d lost quarterback Bob Griese to a broken leg against the Chargers in Week 5, and he would return only when Earl Morrall couldn’t muster an offense against the young Steelers in the AFC title game. And even at 16-0, the Dolphins were underdogs in Super Bowl VII against Washington. (They won 14-7, no thanks to Garo Yepremian.)
Because those Dolphins finished 17-0, they’re generally considered the NFL’s greatest team ever. A lot of folks in Miami, however, insist the 1973 edition, which went 12-2 en route to another Super Bowl victory, was superior. So there’s precedent at work: Even winning every game doesn’t inoculate you against criticism. The unassuming Falcons are only halfway through their regular season, and already they know the feeling.
Further reading/viewing: Would the Falcons be getting nitpicked if they were 6-2?
By Mark Bradley
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167 comments Add your comment
Joshua
November 7th, 2012
9:48 pm
First and foremost, you would have to be a fool to think it will happen. But, I would put the Falcons chances at the feat as better than any team has ever had since the schedule went to 16 games, including the 2007 Patriots. Just be aware, those chances still are not very good.
take it from me.
November 7th, 2012
9:51 pm
If the falcons have got to lose,don’t let it be to the Saints!
Bama14
November 7th, 2012
9:54 pm
Not only can the Falcons not go 16-0, they shouldn’t be thinking about it. They’ll be fine at 13-3.
Really
November 7th, 2012
9:56 pm
Bloodsport – Really, if the Falcons beat the Giants, only then will they be legit? Never mind that the Falcons have already beaten two teams that beat the Giants? Please help me to understand the logic. I think the Giants have already lost three times.
tell the truth
November 7th, 2012
10:19 pm
With that schedule? Why not- look at who they play- and more important who they do not play. What a patsy schedule.
Keith
November 7th, 2012
10:58 pm
Falcons won’t go undefeated. It’s a next to impossible thing. Plus, wouldn’t want them to…just ask Kris Medlen what that’s like and to lose in the playoffs. Lose now, win later.
Tommy
November 7th, 2012
11:22 pm
for the 10,000th time. . .
the reason so many of the Falcons’ opponents have losing records is because the FALCONS BEAT THEM. The Chargers are 4-4. They would be 5-3 had they beaten us. Does that make us more legit in the football outsiders matrix???
Also, it’s best that they don’t go 16-0. They will have enough pressure in the playoffs without having to deal with that on top of it. When they win at Tampa to get to 11-0, that should wrap up the division, and they will probably clinch home field with at least one game left. 14-2 is most likely going to be the final regular season record.
xx
November 7th, 2012
11:24 pm
What an AZZHAT you are for even writing this article. The play bad teams and win and then the Eagles are gonna beat them and yet they win, then Dallas is gonna beat them and they win. Screw you and every other sports writer. Win baby win!
Mora less Petrino
November 8th, 2012
12:30 am
The Saints D is really, really bad! The team with the lily flower on their helmets routinely gives up 500+ yards a game to bad teams. The Eagles could only muster 434 or so. I could see the Falcons getting 600+ yards, maybe even 700 against that D.
September 16, 1973: Falcons defeated the Saints 62-7! ATL did not score in the 1st Qt, missed two FG, fumbled the ball six times, losing two! 62 points in three quarters! I remember watching that game that was played at Tulane Stadium. Dick Shiner and Bob Lee played QB, leading the Birds past Archie Manning.
I don’t know if the Falcons will win by 55, but 35+ would not surprise me.
If the Falcons stumble, I agree that TB would be the most likely team. Seems like the Falcons have really under performed against TB in Tampa more than once.
Mr. SaintsFan Jr.
November 8th, 2012
2:02 am
Relax Falcon fans, we don’t have a good team this year, I’m really surprised to read some of your fans scared about this game. We don’t have a defense this year to hang with your offense and I would be very surprised if we even make the game compeitive, your team does remind me of our 09 team that won the Super Bowl, this could be your year. It will be awful to win 16 games and go home in the playoffs.The Falcons are not getting the respect because we have seen you guys shoot out the gate only to stumble in the playoffs, if you want respect earn it in the playoffs and go all the way.
Ted M
November 8th, 2012
3:21 am
Resting players late in the season is a sure fire recipe for failure in the playoffs.
The Mighty Quinn
November 8th, 2012
3:42 am
What do you call the worst team to go 16-0?
Undefeated.
gbal
November 8th, 2012
6:42 am
odds definately against it. Only happened twice. Why would this be a strange prediction and worthy of writting about
gbal
November 8th, 2012
6:44 am
ATL writers seem to be printing the majority of negative spin… dropp it guys and enjoy the rest of the season with the fans
gbal
November 8th, 2012
6:46 am
ND WHAT A STUPID CAPTION UNDER THE PIC OF TD….. WHAT WOULD MAKE ONE SUGGEST THAT THIS IS WHAT HE IS THINKING???
Ackshun
November 8th, 2012
7:30 am
You mean the same Saints that got be at home by the worst team in the league? Now I know this is different, its the Falcons and these games are always wars. Bottomline is ATL is better in every category. Plus there is the whole payback factor for running the score up so Brees could get the record against us last year. There is no Sproles and a leaky secondary. If the Falcons are who they appear to be, the mop up crew will be in by 2:30 mleft in the 3rd quarter.
okeetee
November 8th, 2012
7:30 am
“Hey okeetee, or what ever name you say,Turner will never be the back you say he his.He does have huge thighs.but no huge brain.Always choose wrong hole to hit and 97% gets 2-3 yards at the most on each carries THats sick man.Theres no way i would have him carry on 3rd down and 2 for a first down.”
I never said Turner was the answer to our running game! And I agree with you, if we need 2 yards we MUST pass to get them! Turner is aging and our offensive line simply does not open big enough holes for an aging runner to bust through them. But, Turner is all we got right now and he does still have moments of brilliance when we seem to need them. We can’t cut Turner or trade him at this point. So we use him as often as he can be effective. It’s a passing league anyway and we run just enough to keep the defense honest. Frankly, there are so many bad teams in the NFL this year and left on our schedule that I’d be surprised if even Turner can’t average 100 yards a game the rest of the way! Our offensive line does a better job of pass protecting than opening holes for a runner, agree?
Ackshun
November 8th, 2012
7:32 am
But on the upside this will be great practice for winning the Super Bowl at their house this year. We should even spot Brees and Payton box seats next to each other so hey can get their man-love on.
DatWho
November 8th, 2012
7:58 am
The Saints are back—look for a huge upset over atl and a roll to the playoffs. Falcons–overrated–they’ll go out in round 1 again. book it!
Esquire
November 8th, 2012
7:59 am
The Mighty Quinn
November 8th, 2012
3:42 am
What do you call the worst team to go 16-0?
Undefeated.
********************************************
Post of the day!
Doc Dawg
November 8th, 2012
8:04 am
Undefeated is irrelevant as mentioned above. Establish a Patriots style dynasty and win 3 super bowls THEN you will get national respect. Of course you’ll get the inevitable “they used the New England blueprint” asterisk.
namssip
November 8th, 2012
8:24 am
I think the Falcons will go 19-0, not because they are so good but because most of the teams in the NFL are n shambles.
extremus
November 8th, 2012
9:46 am
As much as I’d love to see the Falcons run the table on an undefeated Superbowl championship season, I’d readily see the former aspiration end as long as the latter happens. This team is already under more than enough critical pressure; any more and I belleve it would become seriously detrimental to their focus. Would it be the same if they had won any of their previous playoff games under Smith/Ryan? Very likely not; this seems to be the issue most sports writers can’t get past, whether it’s fair or not. Nobody expected 8-0, so expecting them to duplicate that feat during the second half of the season would be unreasonable even from the most dedicated fan; let’s just enjoy what we have right now, because if Atlanta’s sports history tells us anything it’s that success and celebration are fleeting experiences.
willdave
November 8th, 2012
10:04 am
Look, I love the Falcons, man. I want them to win every game. So I’d be thrilled to see them go 16-0. However, with so much parity in the league, I’m at the point now where I will believe that the Falcons or any other team can go 16-0 only after it actually finishes 16-0. In other words, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Keep in mind that some of the Birds’ eight wins so far have been somewhat miraculous. Well, what if the usually reliable Matt Ryan happens to throw an interception the next time he attempts to conduct one of his famous last-minute drives? What if the usually reliable Matt Bryant happens to miss on the next crucial field goal attempt? And what about injuries to key players? Any one or more of these possible occurrences could foil a 16-0 season for this team.
And even if the Falcons can somehow manage to finish the regular season 16-0 this year, I’d still be worried about them losing their first game of the postseason, which would render the perfect regular season absolutely meaningless.
So, let’s just take it one game at a time. Savor each victory. Celebrate it. But don’t ever take it for granted. Always realize that next week could be the end of this fantastic run.
GO FALCONS!!! 16-0!!! (maybe)
Peter
November 8th, 2012
10:22 am
Sure we can 16-0 and end up like the Patriot’s did, and lose in the playoffs at some point…..It can snow in North GA at some point.
What I would like to see is the Falcon’s have the best record so all teams go through Atlanta…..
I beleive we are better then the team of a few years back when we had that scenario, and got burned by Green Bay.
I am hoping for a team that gets to the NFC title game first.
D-Falcon 4 ever
November 8th, 2012
10:27 am
Real Talk you need to look at more than last week’s sports page and check the whole schedule. The Cowboys beat the Giants un week 1.
Rodster
November 8th, 2012
10:40 am
Well, if they did have any chance, you just put the whammy on them. Don’t bring it up again.
P Rose
November 8th, 2012
10:56 am
I’ll try to leave this comment here, since I’m apparently not welcome on the bow tie dude’s blogs. Everything I post there, including this, gets filtered.
He titled his article today “Falcons have no ‘Bounty Gate’ sympathy for the Saints.”
There is not one single quote by a Falcon in his article to support the claim in the title that the players have no sympathy for what the Saints are going through.
It’s bad enough when a player says something that gets cut out and pinned to the bulletin board in the other team’s locker room, to fire them up. It’s even worse when it’s unwarranted.
The provocative but misleading title of the bow tie dude’s article was apparently cooked up by the writer to stir the pot.
19-0!
November 8th, 2012
11:30 am
who can beat the falcons??? with ryan lighting it up and the falcons D, they may run the table. These falcons are for real. Super bowl–on the way!
missDirtyBird
November 8th, 2012
11:40 am
Mine as well wear yalls paper bag face covers you Aints fans! Y’all going down this Sunday! Dirty Bird Nation fixing to RISE UP!
Democratic Plantation Dweller
November 8th, 2012
11:44 am
The Falcons need to be more generous and spread the wins around the league. No team should have all of the wins.
Rise Up # 9
November 8th, 2012
12:45 pm
Atlanta Falcons 62
New Orleans sAints 7
BD
November 8th, 2012
1:32 pm
Even talking about going undefeated is not smart and will likely lead to a loss very soon.
aprilglaspie
November 8th, 2012
2:04 pm
Julio will drop a game-winner in the endzone.
Ivan
November 8th, 2012
2:09 pm
Nobody’s raining on my parade. Never have I been able to say my Falcons are 8-0….
LET’S GO 19-0 FALCONS!!
Wutehvah
November 8th, 2012
2:33 pm
I don’t care what the Saints current record is, this will be a tough game. Vick was running for his life last week. They will be coming after Ryan all day. Go Falcons!!!
gLENN
November 8th, 2012
3:19 pm
If I was a gambling man I would take the Saints this week to atleast cover . If ATL does get past that Tampa is really starting to put it together . You didn’t even mention Detroit . As a life long Pats fan I can tell you the sweetest Superbowl was the 2001 season . No one even thought we would have a winning record . The one we played for with a perfect record ……not so much . BTW , we were given the Baltimore W .
GT
November 8th, 2012
4:15 pm
Too much to think about, though they have good regular seasons, it is the playoffs that count.
David Puddy
November 8th, 2012
4:32 pm
What idiotic talk. Roddy needs to just catch balls and shut up. So far,they’ve run through mostly mediocre teams. In fact, I highly doubt they could beat the Broncos now. So now they’ll look like idiots when they lose against the first decent team they play.
Roswell Falcon
November 8th, 2012
5:16 pm
Don’t care about 16-0, just want to get home field advantage. But I DO NOT want to see aints end our streak, and would LOVE to see us be the one to stop Breesus streak for consecutive games with TD pass, we certainly owe him that and it would be so sweet. Maybe there could be a statue for that!
C’mon D, Rise Up and shut him down.
A True Fan
November 8th, 2012
7:07 pm
Dallas beat the Giants opening weekend
DinoE
November 8th, 2012
7:09 pm
The falcons will probably go 14-2, but will roll through the playoffs with huge wins over chicago and SF to get to the super bowl. Atl v. NE — Falcons win by 6.
SCFalcon
November 8th, 2012
8:00 pm
Forget about all other games but Sunday’s. If they do that, they will go far. Anyone remember Dan Reeves getting caught up the the Super Bowl hype about his troubles with Shannahan and the Broncos? That might have had more to do with the Falcons loss than Eugene Robinson.
The team just needs to forget about the talking heads and focus on the next game. Who cares what the record ends up for the regular season. Just play good football and win some playoff games!
xx
November 9th, 2012
12:16 am
Pamela, its you getting hit in the face with falcon nutz dat is who.
Rocky's DAD
November 9th, 2012
4:51 am
I have been aching to say this somewhere: forget football when you think about this football team. I mean it does not feel like any other football team or season. To this far a way fan (I live in Japan), it feels more more like the BRAVES in the early 90s as they began to turn things around.
The late SKIP Carey made fans believe the unbelievable as he would say something like: “Well, another routine Braves win.” The commentators can’t believe it, now with the FALCONS, even as they must believe it. It is real. And, I think Smitty preaches one game at a time, but too the playoff wins have to be more important than the regular season wins.
This IS a more joyous ride for the fans than the DAN Reaves Super Bowl run-up.
RunninWithTheDawgs
November 9th, 2012
5:50 am
I’m more concerned with how far we go in the post season than I am about going undefeated. If we lose two or three games and win the SB I’ll be happy. GO BIRDS
Morning Reads for Friday, November 9, 2012 — Peach Pundit
November 9th, 2012
6:09 am
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need for speed
November 9th, 2012
6:57 am
If Denver can shut the monkey down we can. Brees is scary but he can be shutdown. the key is applying presure and shuting down his middle options.
Honey boy
November 9th, 2012
7:27 am
I keep sayin…”It ain’t how it’s how many!”
Playoffs are the only things that matters and it appears they will have dome field advantage in them.
So you Saint fans can rest assured you won’t be in them anyway so stop the hand wringing! Your defense couldn’t stop a high school teams so what’s to worry?
Crawl back into the cave, put your thumb securely in your grill and Forget this season..it’s over guys….
CamiloAtlanta
November 9th, 2012
7:29 am
Thank you Mark for the great read, as always.You’re the best. I forgot what you predicted for the Falcons this year. I’m glad that isn’t going to happen (I still hope.. not). But your research is helpful and it helps me put things in perspective with all the other articles out there. Your voice is clear makes me wonder what could be if the Falcons could keep doing what they’ve been doing, something magical, and maybe you’d win a Pulitzer for the article you write about that one.