Could the Falcons really go 16-0? Nobody seems to think so
Is Thomas DeCoud signaling that he feels his team has an 0.5 percent chance to finish 16-0? (AJC photo by Curtis Compton)
The Falcons are halfway to an undefeated regular season almost nobody thinks will happen. Football Outsiders puts the chances of the Falcons going 16-0 at either 0.9 percent or 1.1 percent, depending on which FO index you check. Football Perspective, a more charitable numbers-driven web site, puts the likelihood of perfection at 3.3 percent.
We’ve already seen a slew of articles suggesting the Falcons aren’t as good as their record — I know; I wrote one of them – and the intent today isn’t to revisit that discussion. (But I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Football Outsiders, in its Efficiency Ratings, ranks the 8-0 Falcons only the league’s ninth-best team; Aaron Schatz notes that the Falcons’ Defensive-weighted Value Over Average number is the worst of any 8-0 team ever.) Our focus is on the eight remaining games.
USA Today informs us that the Falcons are the 20th team since 1966, when the first Super Bowl was played, to be 8-0. (From 1966-77, seasons lasted 14 games.) You’re aware that only two teams — the 1972 Dolphins and the 2007 Patriots — completed a regular season unbeaten. USA Today, with help from the busy Football Outsiders, also breaks down the hurdles over which previous unbeatens tripped, Games No. 11 (four teams lost) and 14 (four more) being the most treacherous.
But here we veer from advanced analytics and turn to a rather basic set of numbers — the NFL standings. Of the Falcons’ final eight games, only one will come against a team currently above .500. (The Giants, who play here on Dec. 16, are 6-3.) Three more games feature an opponent at .500. The other four offer sub-.500 opposition.
That’s a slightly toughened version of the the season’s first half, which featured one opponent that currently holds a winning record (Denver); one at .500 (San Diego) and six with losing records. And now we ask: Of the remaining eight games, which looks scariest? (Remember: The Falcons still must play New Orleans and Tampa Bay twice apiece.)
The Saints? They’re playing without their head coach, whose contractual status even while he’s not coaching has become an issue, and they’re on pace to have the worst defense in NFL history. The Cardinals? Once 4-0, they’ve lost five straight. The Panthers? The Falcons saw them already and took what might have been their best shot.
The Giants? They’re good, but they’ve also lost to Dallas and Philadelphia, teams the Falcons just handled. The Lions? They’ve been one of the league’s bigger duds and, with two games against Green Bay and one against Houston to come before they face the Falcons, they could be out of it by Dec. 22.
That leaves, improbably, Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were 4-12 last season, the last of those losses a 45-24 embarrassment in the Georgia Dome. They’re 4-4, having won three of four and not having lost to anybody by more than seven points. Unlike Bucs teams of recent vintage, they’re better on offense than defense — they’ve gained only two fewer yards than have the Falcons — and the 5-foot-9 rookie Doug Martin has rushed for 386 yards in the past two games.
On Sunday the Falcons play in New Orleans, and they well recall Drew Brees and his rub-it-in record. The Falcons would be stoked to play the Saints if both were 0-8. Next is a return to the Dome to face Arizona, which appears to have nothing left. Then it’s down to Tampa the Sunday after Thanksgiving. If I had to take a wide-angle guess at where the first loss will occur, I’d say it’ll happen Nov. 25 in the stadium with the pirate ship in the perilous Game 11.
Loading ...Granted, this all could be moot come 4:10 p.m. Sunday. The Saints could do the deed. (Though I, not being a fan of historically awful defenses, doubt it.) Or the Falcons, advanced analytics be darned, could rattle off another eight and become the worst 16-0 team ever. And here the aging historian in me recalls that, even as the only NFL entry ever to finish as an undefeated champion was going about its business, doubt held some sway.
The ‘72 Dolphins went 14-0 against a schedule that included — see if this sounds familiar — two opponents that finished above .500, and neither of those made the playoffs. They’d lost quarterback Bob Griese to a broken leg against the Chargers in Week 5, and he would return only when Earl Morrall couldn’t muster an offense against the young Steelers in the AFC title game. And even at 16-0, the Dolphins were underdogs in Super Bowl VII against Washington. (They won 14-7, no thanks to Garo Yepremian.)
Because those Dolphins finished 17-0, they’re generally considered the NFL’s greatest team ever. A lot of folks in Miami, however, insist the 1973 edition, which went 12-2 en route to another Super Bowl victory, was superior. So there’s precedent at work: Even winning every game doesn’t inoculate you against criticism. The unassuming Falcons are only halfway through their regular season, and already they know the feeling.
Further reading/viewing: Would the Falcons be getting nitpicked if they were 6-2?
By Mark Bradley
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
167 comments Add your comment
Dawgfan
November 7th, 2012
4:09 pm
I don’t want them to go undefeated! Law of averages will catch up and they’ll lose first round in the playoffs like Green Bay did. No, I’d like to see them a solid 13-3 and head into the playoffs clicking at the right time.
Tom houlihan
November 7th, 2012
4:16 pm
Now that you said they will, they won’t
watcher
November 7th, 2012
4:18 pm
16-0 is a tough nut to crack. Great teams can have bad days, and even the worst teams in the league USUALLY win at least one game against someone. The Falcons need to 1) don’t read the papers and 2) Focus on whatever is next.
Sandy Springs guy
November 7th, 2012
4:21 pm
way to early to even speculate about this notion…
LOL at The Aints
November 7th, 2012
4:27 pm
Hiram Taint sighting! LOL!,, where ya been bud!
Lostfan
November 7th, 2012
4:39 pm
I am surprised the team is 8-0 now. Gave up on pro football several years ago, but watched Falcons game Sun. for 1st time in awhile. Could not believe that this team won, let alone all the other games. Does anyone teach how to tackle or defend a pass anymore in Atlanta? Doesn’t look like it to me.
Tman
November 7th, 2012
4:41 pm
No, the birds won’t go 16-0. In fact, they might lose 2-4 games, but that’s OK. Truth be told, the Bears and Texans are probably as good or better than Atlanta, and we won’t really know anything until the playoffs. If you’ll remember, the Falcons were 13-3 two years ago when the Packers got hot and knocked the crap out of them. I’m proud of them, though. Bad teams don’t go 8-0.
I looked up some interesting stats that illustrate how far this organization has come since Arthur Blank bought the team. The Falcons are 94-72-1 since the ownership change, which is a winning % of .566. Projected over the life of the franchise, this would put them fourth (behind Miami) and ahead of Green Bay for highest winning percentage. Under the Smiths, they were 213-327-5, a winning percentage of .394, one of the worst in football. We’re pretty fortunate to have the current ownership
JFKDawg
November 7th, 2012
4:41 pm
The Falcons OL sucks and is among the worst in rushing yards gained. The D can’t stop the run, ranking in the lower third of the league. Its been smoke and mirrors to this point. Still aren’t close to sniffing Green Bay, San Fran among others.
1Falc
November 7th, 2012
4:49 pm
The Falcons are clearly the best team in the NFL, but will probably lose a game or two when they show up flat or overconfident. No big deal—in the playoffs, the ATL will dominate! Mark this down–the falcons beat NY in game 1, SF for the NFC title and beat Houston in the Super Bowl!!!
Brown
November 7th, 2012
4:56 pm
Why do people always make the arguement that they’d rather the Falcons go 14-2 or 13-3 than 16-0?
That really makes no sense. There have only been two teams that have run the regular season table – Miami and New England. One finished it out, the other lost the final game on a crazy helmet catch.
If you go 16-0 then you are obviously clicking on all cylinders and playing hot going into the playoffs. WTF?
I don’t expect the Falcons to go undefeated, but would I rather them go 14-2 or 13-3 than 16-0? Hell no
DawgDad
November 7th, 2012
4:58 pm
Clearly this is evidence the NFL needs a poll and computer-based ranking system, not a playoff system. Just think of all the meaningless bowl-style games they could promote in January!
Green Bay and New Orleans could still have the inside track on those coveted top-two spots, being as how their style points evoke clear superiority. The 49ers and Bears would generate a lot of ink battling to play in the Tidy Bowl. Giants fans could be guaranteed a vacation in Miami or Tampa. And America’s Team – they’d still be battling for Bowl-eligibility!
Love the Angry Birds
November 7th, 2012
5:01 pm
LOL at the AINTS – Maybe STB4 finally got his gender reassignment =Pamela…..Go Falcons!
Panic fan
November 7th, 2012
5:03 pm
Ok 8-0 way to go but how did we get here? NFL STATS AT MIDSEASON 4 YA !!
player– (rank nfl ) — stats
Matt (3) 206-299 comp 2,360 yds 68.9%comp 17td 6 int 103 overall
Tony (9) 50 comp 495 yds 9.9 avg 4 td
R white (11) 47 comp 709 yds 15,1 avg 4td
Turner (20) 128 rush 517 yds 4.0 avg 4td 10 comp 83yds 10.4 avg
1 rec td
JJ (24) 40 comp 628yds 15.7 avg 5 td 4 rush 20yds 4.8 avg
Quizz (66) 42 rush 137 yds 3.3 avg 24comp 190yds 7.9avg 1 rec td
Snell (111) 8 rush 17yds 2.1 avg 12 comp 49yds 4.1 avg 1 rec td
Harry (141) 16 comp 149 yds 9.3 avg 1 rush 5 yds
Palmer (294) 3 comp 12 yds 4.0 avg
Davis (317) 2 comp 30 yds 15.0 avg 1 rec td
This group has rank of 8th on pass 25th in run 9th in scoring 10 in td offense line rates as 17th Matt bryant (2) leads in points at 82
he is 20 of 23 87%– long of 55 22 xp at 100%
Matt B (29) 30 punt 46.6 avg 11 inside 20 10 fc 63 long
Quizz (25) 11 ret 294 yds 26.7 avg 77 long
Franks (43) 10 ret 68 yds 6.8 avg 13 fc
I will post defense stats and players below this
Kroy (11) 32 tac at 22 solo 10 ast — 2 sacks
Moore (31) 47 tac 36 – 11 1 sack 8 pd 2 int 2 ff 1 frec
Spoon (39) 52 tac 40 -12 3 sack 1 ff 1 frec
Babbs (45) 22 tac 19-3 3.5 sack 1 ff
Nick (46) 49 tac 37 -12 4 pd 1 int 1 ff 1 frec
Abe (56) 20 tac 20 solo 7 sacks 3 ff
Tdec (57) 39 tac 34 – 5 1 sack 10 pd 4 int 1 frec
Drob (57) 39 tac 32 – 7 0,5 sack 5 pd 1int 1 ff
Dent (87) 27 tac 17 – 10
V walker (100) 14 tac 10 – 4 2 sacks 1 ff
Asam (110) 26 tac 25 solo 1 ast 6 pd 1 int 1 79yd td
Mclain (144) 20 tac 17 -3 4pd 1 int 1 ff
Ray (156) 8 tac 5 solo 3 ast 2 frec
Jerry (176) 6 tac 4 – 2
R james (180) 5 tac 3 solo 2 ast
M pete (192) 4 tac 4 solo
Franks (211) 9 tac 8 – 1
Hope (211) 9 tac 7 solo 2 ast
Owens (219) 8 tac 8 solo
Grimes (240) 6 tac 6 solo
Sid (241) 1 tac 1 solo
Mathews (241) 1 tac 1 solo
Peters massaquai robertson no stats yet
This unit is ranked at 17th pass 24th run 4th in total points allowed
at 17 agame 25 th in tackles 4th in int 13th in sacks
This will give you a quick look at how and who has done what to make us 8-0 so far 2012 is a special yr for these birds RISE UP!!
Clarke Central Gladiators
November 7th, 2012
5:05 pm
You now,why not!!!!For the birds to finish undefeated would be great for the Culture( of sports in this city.I can remember the days when Atlanta was the door for the NBA,and the NFL.People, for them to go undefeated would be one of the greatest thing ever to happen to this city,when it comes to Pro- sports.So,let others doubt us.But for the people that really give a damn about Pro-sport in this city.Support your team,ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE….RISE UP PEOPLE!!! RISE UP!!!
Vulture
November 7th, 2012
5:13 pm
Nola Clap?
Is that contagious?
I am not going to vote on when the Falcons might lose. Just going to enjoy it while it last. Better not be Sunday!
Puma
November 7th, 2012
5:13 pm
I don’t want to be negative, and certainly don’t want to give ain’ts fans anything to gloat about, but I think this week could be the week we blow it. Saints have been playing better last couple of weeks and they have kind had our number last couple years in important games. I hope I am wrong, and am still picking Falcons in my office pool.
Although, big difference this year, Saints don’t have all their coaches in place, which could be the difference. They always seemed to game plan us really well.
Billy Bob
November 7th, 2012
5:13 pm
Off topic but…. It always seems Turner gets his big yardage run in the third or fourth quarter. Is this a result of wearing down the opposition defense or calling running plays in those quarters that were not called in the first half? I can’t ever recall him getting many yards in the first half but almost always when we need it he gets that 30 + yard gainer. He is such an odd runner, not that I’m complaining.
mansup
November 7th, 2012
5:16 pm
I think the Falcons are great. But, I’ll bet they lose three to four times in the final eight games. But, 12-4 is an awesome season, and I think they have a great chance to get to the Super Bowl.
DawgDad
November 7th, 2012
5:18 pm
The Falcons do what they need to do to win games. As the stats indicate, they are all about winning their games, not the individual.
We’d all feel better if they were running right over people, getting more sacks, ingon laser-shot passes over the middle. But as-is, they pass their way out of the end-zone with time running out, they kick long field goals with time expiring, they confound Peyton Manning (who still gets a LOT of love, by the way), they win the fourth quarter. They do — whatever it takes. Gotta love ‘em.
hugh
November 7th, 2012
5:20 pm
16-0 means nothing if your goal is a ring
Ben
November 7th, 2012
5:29 pm
They will lose this Sunday. They always soak their pants in the superdome. They arent a bad team, and they have done well, but they also havent beaten anyone decent and have struggled against some really horrible teams. I dont mind them losing this week, then we can finally stop this 16-0 nonsense and move on with the season. Also, a team learns a lot more about itself after a loss than it does a win. See how they react to the beating and you will know what kind of team we really have here.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 7th, 2012
5:34 pm
If they beat the Giants and win both games against the Saints, they absolutely can go 16-0. Their remaining schedule is pretty easy. It speaks to how easy it is that the 3-5 Saints are probably the 2nd toughest team they have remaining.
truedawg
November 7th, 2012
5:39 pm
One thing to remember about the “aint’s” this weekend is they dont have Darren Sproles for the rest of the season and I know that one person doesnt make a team but he sure did have that big play ability to twist the knife…….one thing I have been impressed with this season is our determination to win……we have been down almost every game and came back as a TEAM!!!
Someone else
November 7th, 2012
5:47 pm
Thanks for the kudos Mark…you too Stinger 2!.. Saints end the dream Sunday at 1:00 PM…NO 35 ATL 30…
Really?
November 7th, 2012
5:49 pm
It all depends on when and if the Falcons start resting players in anticipation of the playoffs. I can easily see the taint’s and several other classless teams trying to hurt Ryan or Roddy etc… so why not rest them? We already have the NFC South sewed up, right?
Big Fudge
November 7th, 2012
5:51 pm
The only thing that matters is being healthy come playoff time.
Hillbilly D
November 7th, 2012
6:11 pm
Could they? Yes. Will they? Highly unlikely.
beezit
November 7th, 2012
6:30 pm
Is the topic really worthy of discussion? Would going 16-0 and losing in the playoffs be cool..??..I thinks not…
ML ATL
November 7th, 2012
6:30 pm
This is why the media undersales the Falcons!
I’m greedy I want the Falcons to Go 19-0.
Win the SuperBowl!!
ShutUp Mercury Morris Once And Forall!
Paul
November 7th, 2012
6:31 pm
Folks, that’s why you play the game. I do think this year’s team does take it one game at a time. It has worked perfectly so far. On any given Sunday, blah, blah, blah. Eight more like the past eight, and voila, 16-0! Anything is possible, though throughout NFL history, probably improbable. That’s why you play the games…
Rise Up # 19
November 7th, 2012
6:37 pm
Not 16-0,
but 19-0.
jim
November 7th, 2012
6:39 pm
Way too early to even have this discussion. Celebrate their great start but Pu-Leeze, stop the endless speculation. Oh wait, that is what columnists do, isn’t it?
retired
November 7th, 2012
6:42 pm
TODAY THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IS 9-0
Go Falcons
playmeortrademe
November 7th, 2012
6:48 pm
I would trade losses in week 9, week 11, or week 16 for just one win in week 21 in my lifetime
okeetee
November 7th, 2012
6:56 pm
This Falcon team WILL NOT run the table. That being said, I don’t see the aints beating us this Sunday. There defense is as bad as any in the league. Arizona, like most NFL teams this year, are a train wreck! They won’t beat us at home, that’s for sure. Our first loss will more than likely come at the hands of the Tampa Bay Bucs in Tampa. I mentioned in an earlier post that after hitting the bye week at 6-0 we would all be happy with a 5-5 record the rest of the way, which would give us an 11-5 record, the Division title, and a home game in the first round. Well, we won our first two games coming out of our bye week and that means if we split 4-4 the last 8 games we end up 12-4 and that will give us a bye week and a home game in the second round of the playoffs! With our weak schedule remaining, 4-4 is the least we will do. More than likely it will be 5-3, which will give us 13-3 and home field advantage throughout the playoffs! Lot of good it did us a couple of years ago when we got MCHammered by Green Bay in the Georgia dome! This team is definitely more talented offensively than that team and certainly better in the secondary defensively as well. Unless Ryan (the quarterback) gets hurt, we are in very good shape for what lies ahead! I know we’ve only beaten one team with a winning record so far, but that’s true of just about all Division leaders this year. Hardly anybody is over .500 so who else are you suppose to beat??
Dodge Carithers
November 7th, 2012
7:03 pm
The Falcons is a good team but not as good as their record indicate-they need a good running back-Turner and Rodgers cannot get 2,3 and 4 yards when you need it-they can’t get outside the pocket and that is going to hurt them before the season is over-if Turner say he can do the job then what is he waiting for-Falcons should try using one of the reserve receivers and see what can be done.
okeetee
November 7th, 2012
7:03 pm
“Off topic but…. It always seems Turner gets his big yardage run in the third or fourth quarter. Is this a result of wearing down the opposition defense or calling running plays in those quarters that were not called in the first half?”
…obviously, Turner is going to get more yardage on the ground in the 4th quarter because all those big fat 300 pound lineman are plum tuckered out by then…..and Turner is a 230 pound bowling ball hard to tackle when your tired! His thighs are the size of tree trunks, which means he’s not going to go down with an arm tackle, especially late in the game! He’s no spring chicken anymore, but still a load to tackle when he gets a head of steam!
Panic fan
November 7th, 2012
7:09 pm
This is our chance with coaches(new) using all the players on both sides of the ball in a play to the strength of that player scheme has us in great place at 8-0 2nd half is all of div games that will set us apart or set us up ENJOY THE RIDE GO BIRDS
Doug
November 7th, 2012
7:29 pm
16-0 is nice. A Super Bowl win is better. Hopefully they will win homefield and a bye to start the playoffs. Thus an undefeated season is meaningless since The Falcons should be resting most if not all starters. I am a lifelong fan, we are so DUE!!! Go Birds!!!
BooBoo
November 7th, 2012
7:30 pm
The 2009 Colts were worried about going undefeated and losing in the playoffs, so they pulled Peyton Manning after he had them a lead in game 15 and then sat him in game 16, and they finished 14-2. They lost to the Skanks in the Super Bowl. If a perfect record was meaningful, then the Colts would have gone 16-0 that year … probably still losing to the Skanks. Who knows?
As for this year, it is doubtful that the Falcons will beat New Orleans twice, and they have a tendency to always have to come from behind against the Bucs and Panthers. I imagine playing the Giants in the regular season will be like playing the Green Bay Packers and Discount Double Take Rogers … meaningless if you win then and can’t beat them again in a home playoff game. The point is making it to the playoffs, then beating whoever you play there. Having an 8-0 record means they make the playoffs splitting the last 8 (at 12-4). Tampa could tie that record, but if the Falcons beat them once, then the Falcons are in the playoffs.
The Falcons under Smith have been a clock controlling winner. I think he shudders when the Falcons score quickly, because it means his defense has to be on the field longer and the longer the defense is on the field the fewer the lucky breaks come (droppped passes, fumbles, penalties, etc.). A rested defense can occasionally stop a drive, given those lucky helpers. A tired defense cannot stop a team like New Orleans. That means the offense has to play shootout football, and that is where they excel. Smith has to also get that throat stomping mentality, which he lacks. He will NEVER try a fake punt or field goal, and will only try for an onside kick if losing in the last 2 minutes of a game. He likes to let his quicksdraw offense get a lead and then revert back to his “Turner for 1 yard, Turner for -1 yard, Ryan to Jones for 10 yards” offense.
The last 8 games need to be the “pre-season” for the playoffs, where the goal is to score 50 points a game. If they go that route, they will be fine tuned for the playoffs, regardless of having lost 2-4 games.
Sick & Tired Of Being Sick & Tired
November 7th, 2012
7:30 pm
Like the other bloggers, I don’t really care about an undefeated record this year. That is definitely not the priority. Just win for home field advantage for the playoffs. GO FALCONS!!!!
pb
November 7th, 2012
8:02 pm
Mark, you are a writer not a statistician. Please give us something to think about. We miss Louis, Jesse, and Ron.
JASon
November 7th, 2012
8:24 pm
“We’ve already seen a slew of articles suggesting the Falcons aren’t as good as their record”
Mark, this is the national media making up excuses for not covering the falcons. Can you imagine how wet their pants would be if this was dallas, pittsburgh, or new york?
Jay
November 7th, 2012
8:40 pm
Funny how u used a lot of stats from my posts last night on ur blog. Kudos to me
techmule
November 7th, 2012
8:41 pm
We do not have the q.b. nor do we have the right coach.Atlanta should be 5-3 maybe 6-2 at best.LUCK ,LUCK ,LUCKY.MATT we like you very much.YOU have shown us you have no Manly toughness in you(guts).Have show us fans once you get hit hard you become nerves .WE all see you fall down to take a sack and have to punt.Never have seen you take a hit and get back up be the q.b. we (thought) you were..When we need a first down and its 3rd down and you start to run you slide down way before the first down marker cause your scared you going to get hurt.BE a man and play like a man not a youngen.Hey mr.Smith you dont get respect when you set down and hope you win once you get a 1 point lead dummy.Guess what it ain”t going happen this weekend Them aints are going to rub it you Falcons come SUNDAY.hope not but i see coming big time.YOU play sit down ball with a lead and your going to be laughing stalk of the NFL .8-1 come MONDAY MORNING.I am D-MAN.
WeBurn
November 7th, 2012
8:45 pm
The real question is can the Falcons go 14-2 or 13-3, especially when we’re resting the starters the last 2-3 games of the season.
JasonR
November 7th, 2012
8:48 pm
Really interesting comparison between ‘12 Dirty Birds and the ‘72 Dolphins. If we somehow managed to go undefeated until the Super Bowl, I can almost assure you we would be underdogs, too. Would that make this team the 2nd greatest team ever???
techmule
November 7th, 2012
9:09 pm
Hey okeetee, or what ever name you say,Turner will never be the back you say he his.He does have huge thighs.but no huge brain.Always choose wrong hole to hit and 97% gets 2-3 yards at the most on each carries THats sick man.Theres no way i would have him carry on 3rd down and 2 for a first down.Thats like asking Matt to run the ball and go out of bounds a feet short cause he want take a hit for us fans that are paying his salary.Sick man; grown men the whole offense cant get 2-3 yards
Bloodsport
November 7th, 2012
9:12 pm
Win a playoff game first and then lets talk. The Falcons haven’t played a legit team as yet. Enjoy the ride until Giants come to town and you know what kudos to the Falcon to be at 8-0.
DIEHARDFALCONSFAN!!!!
November 7th, 2012
9:28 pm
Im tired of people saying we haven’t beat some teams above .500. They cant help it that those teams are garbage. Dont hate them cuz there r good! So what we haven’t won a playoff game yet. All that sxxt will change in january! RISE UP!!!!