UGA’s path to the BCS title game? It’s not a straight shot
These are the Oregon Ducks. Georgia wouldn't mind seeing them, er, quack up. (AP photo)
The last BCS title game not to include an SEC representative was staged in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4, 2006, exactly one year before Nick Saban was introduced as Alabama’s new coach. The last BCS title game to include a team from a conference other than the SEC was staged in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 10, 2011, and by now you’re sensing where I’m going with this.
Georgia is No. 5 in the BCS standings. If it wins the rest of its games, it will be 12-1 and the SEC champion. Is there any way a 12-1 SEC champion would NOT play for the BCS title?
Yes, this is putting a wobbly cart before a skittish horse. To get to 12-1, the Bulldogs have to beat Auburn, and then Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, and then would come Alabama. (Provided Alabama doesn’t do something crazy like lose to Texas A&M and Auburn, which it won’t.) Let’s assume Georgia arrives at the Dome on Dec. 1 having lost only once to play the still-unbeaten Crimson Tide, and let’s assume the Bulldogs contrive to topple the mighty men of Saban. What then?
The teams ranked 2-4 in the BCS standings are all unbeaten. It’s possible, if not probable, all will stay that way. Kansas State still must play Texas on Dec. 1, and the Wildcats might have to face TCU this Saturday without quarterback Collin Klein, who suffered a head injury against Oklahoma State. Oregon still must play Stanford and Oregon State, and it could meet USC, which the Ducks just beat 62-51, again in the Pac-12 title game. Notre Dame must play at USC on Nov. 24.
But what if Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame — or two of the three — are still undefeated at the close of business Dec. 1? Should a one-loss SEC champ get the nod over any of the above?
For Georgia: Having taken the past six national championships, the SEC has essentially become college football. Only last year we saw an Alabama team that didn’t win its division play for the BCS title, which it won. The Bulldogs could make the argument that other one-loss SEC champs — LSU in 2003, Florida in 2006 and 2008 — and even the two-loss LSU of 2007 have not only qualified for the national championship game but won the thing.
Against Georgia: Undefeated is undefeated, even if you’re not from the SEC. (Or, in Notre Dame’s case, from any league.) And surely there are folks in other precincts who have wearied of SEC domination and would lobby long and loud that somebody else deserves a chance.
Also against Georgia: Its schedule. The Bulldogs have played only two ranked teams, and they lost to one of those by 28 points.
Georgia’s rebuttal: Alabama would make a third ranked opponent, and if the Bulldogs beat an unbeaten Bama they’d have registered victories over a team ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings and another (meaning Florida) that was No. 2.
For our concluding word, we turn to Brad Edwards, who monitors the BCS for ESPN Insider. His verdict: For a 12-1 Georgia to play for the national title, “two of the three undefeated teams ranked above it have to lose.”
That’s it? No SEC-deserves-a-spot groundswell? Said Edwards: “If (Georgia jumping any of the unbeatens) did happen, it would be because of the SEC’s six consecutive championships … (But) I don’t think even a one-loss SEC champ is going to finish ahead of any of those teams. I don’t think any of the teams in the group is considered a fraud. Notre Dame has skeptics, but people still believe it has a championship-caliber defense.”
About Georgia: “You also have the factor of that one loss. If Georgia’s profile were more like Alabama’s last year, where you lost to a top team in overtime and dominated everybody else you played, it might be different.”
What about those one-loss SEC champs who’ve reached the title game? “The difference is, in every case those teams were beating out another one-loss team, or another two-loss team in LSU’s case (in 2007). If those three teams stay undefeated, I really don’t see many voters putting Georgia higher than fourth.”
Edwards’ salient point: No once-beaten team has made the BCS title game ahead of an unbeaten team from any major conference. For all the griping about this screwy system, that much has been a constant: Undefeated is undefeated. (Although tell that to 9-0 Louisville of the Big East, ranked No. 9 in the BCS standings.)
For these unlucky ‘Dogs, just coming close would be more of the same. In 2002, a 12-1 Georgia finished third in the BCS standings, missing the title game because Miami and Ohio State were undefeated. In 2007, the 9-2 Bulldogs were No. 4 in the penultimate rankings, whereupon two teams ahead of them lost; Georgia, however, was passed in the final standings by three two-loss conference champions. And now, after seeing three BCS titles taken by one-loss SEC champs, this might be the one-loss SEC champ that never gets the chance.
Further reading: If you missed the weekly Heat Check (Georgia is mentioned), it can be found here.
By Mark Bradley
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490 comments Add your comment
Ricnic31
November 6th, 2012
8:05 am
ok, that made my head hurt…lol
GTBOB
November 6th, 2012
8:05 am
How do these dillusional Dawgs possibly think the Dawgs will get into a national Championship game with a schedule of patsies and a 35-7 drubbing byt the cocks???
The Professor
November 6th, 2012
8:06 am
Here’s your Bulldog Math Problem of the Week
f(x,y,z) = 36.23x³ + 3.67y•π + √z²
Solve for f(x, y, z), given:
X = the probability that the UGA will make it through a season without another player being arrested and locked up in jail
Y = the number of legitimate college courses that UGA football players have passed
Z = on a sleaze scale of 0-10, with 0 being the sleaziest and 10 being morally and ethically upstanding, where is Mark Richt?
Congratulations if you came up with the correct answer, which is ZERO
rescue dog
November 6th, 2012
8:11 am
don’t fool yourselves dawg dummies…Bama and LSU are the only “elite” teams in the SEC right now…Big12, Pac10 best teams are the equal of Florida, TAMU and Georgia…want to know why Georgia always loses the BCS “beauty contests”…see losing to South Carolina for details…
GTFAN
November 6th, 2012
8:13 am
I don’t see UGA losing any more games, but if they make it the SEC Championship game and play Bama they will get destroyed!
Bulldogs for Muschamp Lifetime Contract
November 6th, 2012
8:20 am
Beat Auburn
Jay
November 6th, 2012
8:32 am
You’re talking about a team with a blowout loss 35-7 for a nat champ? Come on. And what if uga somehow did manage to beat alabama? I don’t see it happening but if they did win say by a td or less. Bama should still go by their loss not being nearly as bad. SC may have 3 losses when the season is over. Then you have all the undefeated teams. Good luck with them all losing. But ga beating bama, not gonna happen. We all know what happens when they play far superior teams. UF was not good. They are like clemson last year. Everyone thought they were for real. Fsu will beat uf by 2 tds. Fsu should go over uga. They didn’t get blown out.
rescue dog
November 6th, 2012
8:41 am
nice job by former dawg Boykin screwing up the lateral on a kickoff return for a TD…never put a former dawg in a position where failure is possible because fail they will…its in their DNA…
I wish my Bees were as good as UGA
November 6th, 2012
8:43 am
GT stinks this yr.
Rooty Tooty
November 6th, 2012
8:44 am
Once the mighty dawgs get finished with their powder puff SEC East schedule, they will get their arss wiped by whoever is the SEC West representative.
old dog
November 6th, 2012
8:56 am
We are doing better, but our Achilles heel (o-line) will be exposed (and quickly) if/when we make it to the SEC championship game. We have won on talent overall, skill players, and our D finiding itself. We have had a good year, and should be proud…..we are #5! However, we do not have the hosses up front for ‘Bama, and Saban will quickly exploit that. We will have to throw quick-outs, screens, etc. and hope the D plays lights out. In the end, though, (for those of us who are realists) our o-line play will be where we fall……
KingGator
November 6th, 2012
9:06 am
What are you smokin’ bro? GA in the national title game? Gimme a freakin’ break!! They beat the Gators, and that was their title game. They did us a favor, because whenever Bama gets done with either one of us, it’s gonna require a fleet of mash units to get our teams off that field. Nobody is gonna beat Bama. LSU stood the best chance, and their coach blew it. He should of let their qb pass there at the end instead of running the ball. Saban and Bama will eventually go down, but I don’t think this is the yr. Once Muschamp can figure out how to beat his alma mater, and not get confused about which side he’s on, we’ll be right back in the thick of the national title game. Richt is not the coach that will GA to the title game. Good guy, but doesn’t have the killer instinct it requires. Besides, the dawgs are gonna have to wait until Spurrier retires before they can get past that game. He’ll be in their heads until the day he hangs up his visor
papadawg
November 6th, 2012
9:06 am
You know everybody wants to see Notre Dame back in the spotlights so the DAWGS will probably need to be at least #3 when they beat the Tide to even have a chance. I think so many are tired of the SEC hogging the title they’ll do anything for other teams to have a chance
Cobb Dawg
November 6th, 2012
9:07 am
Plain and simple. If the Dawgs had taken care of business against USCe, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. In CFB, you don’t get many second chances. The Dawgs are a pretty good football team right now. Who knows what might have been had we not had to suspend 4 defensive players at the beginning of the season. But who can call the Dawgs a great team yet? Barely beat UT and KY (a gosh-aweful train wreck). UGA will likely face Bama in the SECCG. If they beat Bama, we can talk. If not, all of this will be moot anyway and we can hope for a good bowl.
GT
November 6th, 2012
9:07 am
This team is far more legit than the one playing last year, in resume and reality. If Georgia beats Alabama, and has only one loss to a USC team that had Latimore at full steam, had to play South Carolina there and play them early before film was available on Clowney as the stud end in college football, they deserve to be in the national picture. How can you leave them home thinking you have a championship game and the champion may be sitting on a sofa watching it? Even in that Florida loss Latimore was injured, USC played the LSU game very close there the week after Georgia. I just hope Georgia is not judged by a depleted team now that was a full house when they played them. This is the best team Richt has had since he has been in Athens, now he needs to finish the drill.
rescue dog
November 6th, 2012
9:13 am
next Sunday, the Saints will hang a loss on the Falcons…for the 11th time in 13 games, Saints win…in other news, Bulldogs fans still in fantasyland with BCS title talk…
sldasdf
November 6th, 2012
9:13 am
Beat our rivals and that’s all I’m worried about which is to say I’m not too worried. College Football is a broken system no one wants to fix because it’s a cash cow. The only thing I like about it is watching my alma mater beat the alma maters of the people I know who made unfortunate matriculation choices.
Red Stick
November 6th, 2012
9:15 am
Mark,
Bama has Saban, Nussmeier and Smart.
Georgia has Richt, Bobo and Grantham.
This should put things in layman’s terms for those wondering if the Dogs can beat the Tide.
blue
November 6th, 2012
9:17 am
“About Georgia: “You also have the factor of that one loss. If Georgia’s profile were more like Alabama’s last year, where you lost to a top team in overtime and dominated everybody else you played, it might be different.” That hits the nail on the head. If you absolutely fail to show up in a game (the SC game qualifies) and the other teams DO take care of THEIR business…the SEC thing goes out the window. Champions show up every week, don’t get manhandled by anyone, and certainly don’t quit in a game.
GatornDC
November 6th, 2012
9:19 am
This weekend game is setup perfectly for an upset. Gene Chizik has to rally his team and Auburn will play as if they have nothing to lose.
That said, I am not sure I want UGA to lose. Bama would rather play Gators than UGA. Gators would rather skip SEC CG this year than play Bama.
Every time Bama went to SEC CG, it played Gators. Who knows…
THEOBGYN
November 6th, 2012
9:22 am
Buckeye,
How’s your record in bowl games Vs. the SEC again? Shut it.
Howard
November 6th, 2012
9:37 am
I think you have too much idle
time on your hands
DwayneL
November 6th, 2012
9:47 am
UGA has absolutely ZERO chance of beating Bama in the SEC championship so don’t get all fired up….it will just be a bigger let down for you. GEAUX TIGERS
Preston
November 6th, 2012
9:53 am
UGA needs to play a perfect game and beat an undefeated Bama in the SECCG to have the right to play for the MNC. I’m a Bamma fan til then as well as a Dawg fan! A & M might give them a tough game this week after such an emotional game vs LSU who exposed some weaknesses that were unforeseen prior to the game. Dawgs need to focus on each individual game because, after all, Auburn only lost by 2 to LSU!
FalconDawg
November 6th, 2012
10:31 am
Whos better than who? One day we will find out on the field
Quarterfinals- highest ranked home game
#1 Alabama vs #8 South Carolina
#4 Notre dame vs #5 UGA
#2 KSU vs #7 LSU
#3 Oregon vs #6 Florida
Semifinals-
#1 Alabama vs #5 UGA (sugar bowl)
#2 KSU vs #3 Oregon (fiesta bowl)
BCS Championship game- (orange bowl)
#1 Alabama vs #3 Oregon
Rotating BCS bowl games locations- (rose not in this year, but of course still has a game)
A man can dream right? One day we will look back and
Say what the heck were we thinking!? Fans would LOVE the
Above system, but as long as everybody gets PAID that gets paid now, it ain’t
Gonna change soon. All about the allmighty dollar my friends. Playoff is obvious,
As we know every other sport in the world has playoffs!
4 team playoff is only a start and scratches only the surface of
What will eventually happen. Just hope it’s in my lifetime so I can say
“Told you so!!!!!!”
Wet Willie...keep on smiling
November 6th, 2012
10:37 am
I would like to see a 6 team playoff with 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 right after the conference champs games. The winners will play 1 or 2 on the weekend of New Years, and the final 2 play as now setup. This gets us 6 and motivates the teams to finish 1 or 2 to get that bye. 3,4,5,6 are like the wildcard teams but still have that shot but have to play that one extra game.
Coach Bryant used to say expect the unexpected and plan for it. UGA has a chance at the NC game but needs some help just like Bama did last year with several team losing so called easy games. If Murray were to get hot as Mettenberger was Saturday then they can beat Bama. UGA can get up and play a big game but due to Richt’s style they can’t win every week no matter the talent level.
Take A&M and the points and bet the house. If Bama wins it will be around 7 points. We’re a tired and beatup football team. Get used to A&M and winning for they will join Bama,LSU as the three teams in the West every year as the best teams.
UGA Insider
November 6th, 2012
10:43 am
BCSNCG- Bama vs Oregon and or Notre Dame
Georgia could play KState in a BCS game which woul be fun to watch.
UGA Insider
November 6th, 2012
10:46 am
Word is CMR wants to do some showing off this weekend on the plains….
Get a little respect.
UGA 55
Auburn 10
Dawg '80
November 6th, 2012
10:50 am
The real NC is played every year in Atlanta anyway, so if Georgia beats Bama there’s no doubt in my mind they should go. Oh, and Buckeye, cry about the opponent’s w/l record all you want. When quality plays quality, which rarely happens with your team, somebody’s gotta lose. When you play in a conference where every game’s a rivalry, it’s always tough to get a win.
Time
November 6th, 2012
11:00 am
Only a complete fool could look at that ND team and think National Champion. They have maybe 2-3 players that would start at places like Bama, LSU, and yes UGA. KSU and Oregon may have a few more players, but I don’t want to hear about any supposed weak UGA schedule. The SEC counts 4 teams in the top 10 of the BCS. 2 of which UGA has played. Oregon gives up a million yards to a 3 loss football team. KSU plays in the Big 12 or 10 or whatever they call themselves now. The best team from that conference now plays in the SEC.
The 3 teams in front of UGA are all frauds. Good thing for UGA is typically the regular season exposes these teams before the end of the season. Remember, most of these media types were ready to hand the title to USC before the season even started.
RTR15
November 6th, 2012
11:18 am
Alabama 37 Ga 13 — bet the house
kip
November 6th, 2012
11:40 am
If Georgia didn’t get embarrassed by South Carolina in Columbia, they would have an argument. Go Dawgs, but cry me a river if you get left out of the BCS title game because some teams ahead of you are undefeated. STOP LOSING TO SOUTH CAROLINA!
MFranklin
November 6th, 2012
12:15 pm
Here’s a good example of the bias:
On ESPN’s CFB main, there is the following poll:
Which of these teams would you most like to see win the BCS National Championship?
Alabama
Kansas State
Notre Dame
Oregon
Several years ago, UGA was way up in the BCS but had 2 loses. The sports jockys at ESPN cried that a team with 2 losses can’t be considered a National Champion so Georgia got the congeniality award (The Sugar Bowl) where they annihilated an unbeaten Hawaii team.
Okee dokee. We have 1 loss this year and the ESPN desk’perts say that we can’t be considered for for the National Championship, even if we were to beat the #1 team, Alabama, in the SEC champ game.
Like I said on the other thread… the Dawgs need a genuine miracle to make the BCS game… one from a place higher than ESPN.
Ed
November 6th, 2012
12:17 pm
Let’s focus on the real championship, the SEC. If that works out (a big if, we’d have to beat Alabama), then we can focus on mythical “BCS” titles.
rescue dog
November 6th, 2012
12:30 pm
MFranklin, America knows Georgia is a paper tiger…no backbone…choke up on the big stage…a “C” student trying to get into Harvard…THEY ARE NOT A CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER PROGRAM…UGA should just stick to country club sports…
rescue dog
November 6th, 2012
12:32 pm
and why is that?
UGA Bob
November 6th, 2012
12:41 pm
The BCS matters nothing to many dawg fans. Most of us realize it is just a popularity contest and a farce. I gave up on the BCS in 2004 when Auburn got hosed. The SEC is what matters to us and, while the odds are quite long, I will be there rooting for my dawgs to upset the mighty Crimson Tide. Win or lose. I’m a dawg for life.
BullCrapShowdown
November 6th, 2012
12:49 pm
I am a die hard dawg fan, but I SERIOUSLY doubt Uga will play for the BCS. Even IF (big if) we can beat the Saban evil-empire of Allerbammer, we would need Notre Dame to lose and we all know that ain’t gonna happen. ND is the darling of ESPN and week-in-week-out the officials have seen to it that they will be undefeated. It’s shameless really.
NoWayND
November 6th, 2012
12:51 pm
The powers that be and especially espn will go to any lengths to put ND in the championship game and send the Heisman trophy their way in the process. Mark my words.
7576DAWG
November 6th, 2012
12:52 pm
Some fans sound like they are afraid Georgia will overlook Auburn. If Auburn beats Georgia they will deserve it. Auburn doesn’t even come close to Georgia comparing the Quality of players on the field. Auburn doesn’t have a great Quarterback like Georgia does. The only problem Georgia’s Quarterback has is confidence in the real big games. Murray has a big mouth and may seem he can handle it but his lack of production and multiple mistakes in the big games tells a different picture.Murray will never be an NFL Quarterback unless he can PROVE he can control his emotions and anxiety.
Murray will have no problem with Auburn , he probably won’t even lose any sleep which I bet he did with Florida and South Carolina.
In the SEC the first earmarks of a great team is a great Quarterback. Without one you can not compete in the SEC then you move on to a great defense and running backs. Then a great defensive and offensive line and the other thing is to have great special teams. Auburn has none of these and their lack of depth and not having an SEC quality coach will give Georgia a win ,let’s say Georgia 31 – 10.
old dog
November 6th, 2012
12:52 pm
@kip,
Unfortunately, you are dead on. We got our butts handed to us by South Carolina, because when Spurrier says “boo” the ‘Dawgs panic (his record against us, cumulitively says so.) Had it ben a well-fought game, it would be different. We paniced and got hammered. I kinda hate it, really, but it is what it is………
Rick James
November 6th, 2012
12:57 pm
@John
If Bama was “exposed” by LSU, what did Kentucky and Tennessee do to Georgia
————————————————————————————————————
If Kentucky and Tennesee “exposed” anything about Georgia why didnt Florida see it?
benb
November 6th, 2012
1:12 pm
BCS??? Georgia??? What are you smoking or snorting??? Never in my lifetime!
7576DAWG
November 6th, 2012
1:16 pm
I played a lot pf organized team sports growing up and I can assure all those who are saying let’s take care of Auburn first before taking about Championships just haven’t been close to what the players at Georgia are going through right now. The only thing they are thinking about is Auburn. They are not 5 years old. Our players know they are 8-1 in the hardest Conference in America and they know that Auburn stands in their way of becoming 9-1. Way to much senior leadership on this team to lose to a team who is now getting their comeuppance for selling themselves to the dark side a few years ago .
Dog>tide
November 6th, 2012
1:55 pm
Alabama is overrated–it took a miracle to beat lsu, the only good team they played all year. GA’s D will be all over mccarron and the Dogs will get the upset–20-13! Dogs to the BCS!!!!!!!
pb
November 6th, 2012
1:57 pm
REALLY GUYS is right! We are getting ahead of ourselves here. UGA has to win all the rest, and convincingly do so, which they have not done in some games this year… And then they are still behind the unbeatens… Odds just aren’t in their favor of getting to National Championship Game. Too many what ifs. Nice to dream, I suppose.
Artie
November 6th, 2012
2:01 pm
Why even worry about something that won’t even happen?!?! LMAO
pb
November 6th, 2012
2:02 pm
National Media is biased towards Notre Dame… Kind of disgusting. Win a few games this year, and ESPN says they are “back” ! To me, highly over-rated. They have some kind of unexplainable appeal to some coaches and sportswriters who vote in the polls. The Notre Dame “mystique” myth needs to be crushed. Who cares how good they were way back when?
ThisThatnTheOther
November 6th, 2012
2:21 pm
Although I am neutral when it comes to the dawgs, I would love to see them play for the BCS championship. Then we wouldn’t have to listen to the fans yapping anymore after the dawgs are exposed as a good but not great football program with an inflated record due to beating up on cupcake teams and dodging the big boys.
DawgNole
November 6th, 2012
2:30 pm
Jsonic
November 5th, 2012
10:11 pm
That’s right Dawgnole,
Including that win. We take the good and the bad. And even after all this time inbetween NC’s Notre Dame is still more relevant than the Bulldogs.
______________________
It’s been more than a few years since ND was relevant at all–much less more relevant than UGA.