UGA’s path to the BCS title game? It’s not a straight shot
These are the Oregon Ducks. Georgia wouldn't mind seeing them, er, quack up. (AP photo)
The last BCS title game not to include an SEC representative was staged in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4, 2006, exactly one year before Nick Saban was introduced as Alabama’s new coach. The last BCS title game to include a team from a conference other than the SEC was staged in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 10, 2011, and by now you’re sensing where I’m going with this.
Georgia is No. 5 in the BCS standings. If it wins the rest of its games, it will be 12-1 and the SEC champion. Is there any way a 12-1 SEC champion would NOT play for the BCS title?
Yes, this is putting a wobbly cart before a skittish horse. To get to 12-1, the Bulldogs have to beat Auburn, and then Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, and then would come Alabama. (Provided Alabama doesn’t do something crazy like lose to Texas A&M and Auburn, which it won’t.) Let’s assume Georgia arrives at the Dome on Dec. 1 having lost only once to play the still-unbeaten Crimson Tide, and let’s assume the Bulldogs contrive to topple the mighty men of Saban. What then?
The teams ranked 2-4 in the BCS standings are all unbeaten. It’s possible, if not probable, all will stay that way. Kansas State still must play Texas on Dec. 1, and the Wildcats might have to face TCU this Saturday without quarterback Collin Klein, who suffered a head injury against Oklahoma State. Oregon still must play Stanford and Oregon State, and it could meet USC, which the Ducks just beat 62-51, again in the Pac-12 title game. Notre Dame must play at USC on Nov. 24.
But what if Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame — or two of the three — are still undefeated at the close of business Dec. 1? Should a one-loss SEC champ get the nod over any of the above?
For Georgia: Having taken the past six national championships, the SEC has essentially become college football. Only last year we saw an Alabama team that didn’t win its division play for the BCS title, which it won. The Bulldogs could make the argument that other one-loss SEC champs — LSU in 2003, Florida in 2006 and 2008 — and even the two-loss LSU of 2007 have not only qualified for the national championship game but won the thing.
Against Georgia: Undefeated is undefeated, even if you’re not from the SEC. (Or, in Notre Dame’s case, from any league.) And surely there are folks in other precincts who have wearied of SEC domination and would lobby long and loud that somebody else deserves a chance.
Also against Georgia: Its schedule. The Bulldogs have played only two ranked teams, and they lost to one of those by 28 points.
Georgia’s rebuttal: Alabama would make a third ranked opponent, and if the Bulldogs beat an unbeaten Bama they’d have registered victories over a team ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings and another (meaning Florida) that was No. 2.
For our concluding word, we turn to Brad Edwards, who monitors the BCS for ESPN Insider. His verdict: For a 12-1 Georgia to play for the national title, “two of the three undefeated teams ranked above it have to lose.”
That’s it? No SEC-deserves-a-spot groundswell? Said Edwards: “If (Georgia jumping any of the unbeatens) did happen, it would be because of the SEC’s six consecutive championships … (But) I don’t think even a one-loss SEC champ is going to finish ahead of any of those teams. I don’t think any of the teams in the group is considered a fraud. Notre Dame has skeptics, but people still believe it has a championship-caliber defense.”
About Georgia: “You also have the factor of that one loss. If Georgia’s profile were more like Alabama’s last year, where you lost to a top team in overtime and dominated everybody else you played, it might be different.”
What about those one-loss SEC champs who’ve reached the title game? “The difference is, in every case those teams were beating out another one-loss team, or another two-loss team in LSU’s case (in 2007). If those three teams stay undefeated, I really don’t see many voters putting Georgia higher than fourth.”
Edwards’ salient point: No once-beaten team has made the BCS title game ahead of an unbeaten team from any major conference. For all the griping about this screwy system, that much has been a constant: Undefeated is undefeated. (Although tell that to 9-0 Louisville of the Big East, ranked No. 9 in the BCS standings.)
For these unlucky ‘Dogs, just coming close would be more of the same. In 2002, a 12-1 Georgia finished third in the BCS standings, missing the title game because Miami and Ohio State were undefeated. In 2007, the 9-2 Bulldogs were No. 4 in the penultimate rankings, whereupon two teams ahead of them lost; Georgia, however, was passed in the final standings by three two-loss conference champions. And now, after seeing three BCS titles taken by one-loss SEC champs, this might be the one-loss SEC champ that never gets the chance.
Further reading: If you missed the weekly Heat Check (Georgia is mentioned), it can be found here.
By Mark Bradley
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490 comments Add your comment
Tide Rising
November 5th, 2012
9:39 pm
Red Stick,
Hey man. What’s up. It was a great game. Could have gone either way and LSU played great. I’ld never seen an LSU team under Miles play with such discipline- no turnovers and only 1-2 penalties I think. He had them well prepared.
Tide Rising
November 5th, 2012
9:42 pm
Its a pipe dream if dawg fans think UGA is getting into the bcs title game ahead of 2 unbeaten teams from bcs conferences. Aint gonna happen. Even if a one loss sec team was to get in it would have to be someone with a good quality loss instead of getting blown out. That and plus UGA had too many close calls against bad teams like UT. The only way they would be considering is if they were a dominant team that lost one close game and blew out everyone else that they played. And that doesn’t apply.
Deep South
November 5th, 2012
9:55 pm
UGa and Clemson wud be a great matchup IMO.
no dawg
November 5th, 2012
10:05 pm
We are waiting.
THE Dixie Redcoat Band
November 5th, 2012
10:06 pm
Should have beaten USC…
Jsonic
November 5th, 2012
10:11 pm
That’s right Dawgnole,
Including that win. We take the good and the bad. And even after all this time inbetween NC’s Notre Dame is still more relevant than the Bulldogs.
no dawg
November 5th, 2012
10:11 pm
The dream ends when we take it from all you mutts.
Tide Rising
November 5th, 2012
10:13 pm
It is kinda funny that we are even having this discussion considering the imminent arse whupping we are going to put on the dawgs. Its going to be a beatdown of epic proportion.
Jimmy
November 5th, 2012
10:17 pm
“For these unlucky ‘Dogs, just coming close would be more of the same. In 2002, a 12-1 Georgia finished third in the BCS standings, missing the title game because Miami and Ohio State were undefeated. In 2007, the 9-2 Bulldogs were No. 4 in the penultimate rankings, whereupon two teams ahead of them lost; Georgia, however, was passed in the final standings by three two-loss conference champions. And now, after seeing three BCS titles taken by one-loss SEC champs, this might be the one-loss SEC champ that never gets the chance.”
The above Bradley quote says everything but this:
UGA wil not get the nod even over one loss teams because of the way they have looked in winning and losing.
PERCEPTION is a huge part of the ranking battle.
This is largely a beauty contest.
There is no computer program that can sift the variables for complete accuracy.
No human being is smart enoughor objective enough to decide who is best.
If a team gets humiliated in every big game…looking like pretenders every time…
They will not get the benefit of the doubt.
Period.
no dawg
November 5th, 2012
10:22 pm
Nov.24,dream ends we are waiting
Jimmy
November 5th, 2012
10:26 pm
“In 2007, the 9-2 Bulldogs were No. 4 in the penultimate rankings, whereupon two teams ahead of them lost; Georgia, however, was passed in the final standings by three two-loss conference champions”
This is the year I have the biggest gripe with the BC$ voting system.
That year, the talking heads justified passing Georgia by saying only conference champs should play in the title game. It was a constant refrain.
Last year, Alabama lost the conference championship and guess what…they play for the title anyway passing over other conference champs. NO CONSISTENCY.
Last year the talking heads justified doing that by saying, “The title game should match the two best teams in the nation.” Conference championships didn’t mean anything. NO CONSISTENCY.
This is why only a true playoff of 8 teams or more will be needed to determine a legitimate champion.
No system is perfect, but that would be better than what we have.
Otherwise, it is just a beauty contest.
7576DAWG
November 5th, 2012
10:30 pm
If an SEC team does not play for the National Championship I hope there will be so many complains that the best team didn’t even get to play , that they will decide to start the playoff system in 2013. Actually they should not only do the playoff next year but they should go ahead and make it an 8 team playoff which is what it will end up being, eventually.
It will be terrible if Notre Dame plays for the National Championship without even having to play a top SEC team, not be a member of a Conference and don’t have to play a Conference Championship. If Notre Dame had to play a SEC scedule this year they would lose at least 2 games and maybe as many as 4. What makes the SEC so Damn hard which other Conferences just can’t admit, is not that they win against a great team and maybe win the Conference Championship but to be able to endure over 8 SEC teams and the Conference Championship can not be matched by any Conference and certainly not Notre Dame.
7576DAWG
November 5th, 2012
10:44 pm
One way the rest of the country could make sure that another team won the National Championship, not from the SEC is to pick two team not in the SEC. It would certainly cheapen the Championship when everybody knows Kansas State , Notre Dame or Oregon could not beat Alabama or L.S.U. And Notre Dame couldn’t beat Texas A&M, Georgia or Florida. And Kansas State or Oregon probably couldn’t beat Florida or Georgia if the right defense decided to show up for Georgia.
Can’t wait to start the playoff so crap like this will not be an issue but knowing how sorry the BCS is they will probably figure a way to restrict the SEC from participating. Like right now if their was a 8 team playoff the SEC would have 5 teams in the top 8. Does anyone really think they will let the SEC take up 5 of the eight slots. No matter what we do the SEC will end up getting screwed over one way or another.
funny....
November 5th, 2012
10:52 pm
You know if the cards fell in place for Georgia and they managed a trip to the BCSNCG, Georgia better hope for an injured KSU or Notre Dame.
I see no way Georgia can stop Oregon. Heck, Alabama is going to have a tough time with Oregon.
Here is a crazy “what if” scenario:
Georgia (12-1) beats #1 Bama, Notre Dame loses at USC, Oregon drops a game, and KSU loses to Texas. The computers love Florida, they have them at #4
Could the NCG be a Georgia/Florida rematch?
Cccp
November 5th, 2012
10:55 pm
Does it even matter. College football is a joke because of the lack of a playoff system. It’s arbitrary and illegitimate. Alabama couldn’t win their division or conference yet claim a national championship…pretty sure that can only be the case in a playoff system, not exhibition games sponsored by corporations. Until college football gets playoff’s, any talk of champion is moot.
Jsonic
November 5th, 2012
10:59 pm
At 7576DAWG,
The SEC is the strongest divison but that doesn’t mean that the NC goes through them. As of right now there are 7 ranked teams in the SEC, out of that 7, 4 are in the top 10. Yes that proves that the SEC is strongest division this year but any other team on their way to the top or that is ranked higher should be disqualified because they didn’t play an SEC team?????? What kind of arrogant BS is that? Since you called out Notre Dame specificly justify it. Why not Notre Dame? Because they won some close games?? Only 1or 2 teams in the SEC could handle the Irish defense! Certainly not the dogs. Yes, the Irish offense is shakey but they’ve proven they can hang with anybody. Woulda shoulda coulda does not an argument make. Notre Dame’s record speaks for itself just as Bama’s or the Bulldogs does. All schedules are roughly the same as far as strength and everybody is where they should be for the moment.
Notre Dame Irish
November 5th, 2012
11:10 pm
So, it seems everyone expects USC to beat ND? Are these the same people that said we had no chance against OU? I am looking forward to seeing us play the Dawgs in the Sugar/Orange bowl.
Tide Rising
November 5th, 2012
11:10 pm
“Alabama couldn’t win their division or conference yet claim a national championship…pretty sure that can only be the case in a playoff system, not”
Perhaps you’re not aware of this but rematches for championships are not unusual. Happens all the time in the NFL, NBA, MLB, and the NHL. Sometimes in the NFL you have a team play another team for a 3rd time in the playoffs after already having beaten that team twice in the regular season. The goal of the BCS is to match the 2 best teams in college football. And it did exactly that last year as Bama proved in the rematch. And btw that’s not the first time there has been a rematch in college football for a national title. Just ask Steve Spurrier and Florida in 1996.
Notre Dame Irish
November 5th, 2012
11:14 pm
And for all the people that are talking about playoff. It simply is not going to happen in this lifetime. Money rules this country and the networks need the bowl system in order to make money.
Red Stick
November 5th, 2012
11:29 pm
Tide Rising, good to hear from you. It was a great game and a great effort by both squads. Our rivalry has gotten to be huge and is college football at it’s best as demonstrated by being the most watched game, by far, on any network this season.
Not sure if you know this but the 10 rating easily beat the 3.1 CBS has been averaging on Saturday nights with their non-sports programming. The game had more than 3 times as many viewers as the USC-Oregon did on Fox. This reflects the national appeal of both programs.
I can’t wait until we visit TTown next season. We always have a good time there.
Good luck the rest of the way. Nick has your program on a roll.
Geaux Tigers
Go SEC
Athens Tider
November 5th, 2012
11:32 pm
“Also, how many SEC teams really care about the National Title Game more than the SEC Championship game?”
All of them. It’s only the fans that think their team can’t win a National Title that say they prefer an SEC Title. You don’t think LSU would have rather won the National Title last year? If you don’t think so, ask them.
‘t ldn
Tide Rising
November 5th, 2012
11:33 pm
Notre Dame Irish,
They’re already setting up for a 4 team playoff which is fine. If we go back and look throughout history sometimes there is a 3rd team like Auburn in 04 that got left out and has a legitimate beef. Sometimes there may even be a 4th team that has a legitimate beef about not getting into the title game. But if you finish ranked 5th you really don’t have much of a beef about whether or not you deserved to be in the title game. So to me the top 4 is a good cutoff point for a playoff. And if things hold for the rest of the year this year for instance would be a good year to have a 4 team playoff. An 8 team or 16 team playoff just aint ever gonna work. Too much interference with the bowls at that point so people can quit dreaming about that.
Strat Cat Dawg
November 5th, 2012
11:36 pm
As they say in AA, one day at a time and keep it simple, stupid. How about we concentrate on getting ready to step our game up another notch against Auburn and let the BCS take care of itself?
Notre Dame Irish
November 5th, 2012
11:38 pm
I agree that anything (including a 4 team playoff) is better than the current system. However, lets pretend for a minute that Ohio State was eligible this year and there were 5 undefeated teams in the FCS. What happens then?
Red Stick
November 5th, 2012
11:43 pm
Tide Rising, good to hear from you. It was a tough fought game by both squads.
What a great rivalry this has gotten to and with national title implications on the line.
Good luck the rest of the way!
Bobo
November 6th, 2012
12:04 am
NO WAY is Georgia beating Bama. They just can’t play with them, so this scenario is pretty much all for naught.
Mark, speaking of bulldogs, in a related development, do you think Maureen Downey looks like a man wearing a wig? SHE’S A MAN BABY!
KJ
November 6th, 2012
12:19 am
“However, lets pretend for a minute that Ohio State was eligible this year and there were 5 undefeated teams in the FCS. What happens then?”
The Suckeyes should get left out regardless, given they have done nothing but soil the bed in big games against God’s conference for the last few decades.
Knockahoma
November 6th, 2012
1:18 am
Any UGA fan that would accept a SECCG loss in the hopes that the SEC retains the championship is a loser. I love that the SEC has had this streak, but in no way would I ever choose the conference over my team.
UGA shouldn’t have the mentality of the small kid in high school with a Napoleon complex who is friends with all the popular jocks and leans on that fact like it makes him one of the jocks.
I don’t see it working out for the Dawgs anyway, but I would much rather UGA beats UA and the streak end so UGA could gather a little momentum over Alabama in recruiting kids from this state.
KISSBridges
November 6th, 2012
1:19 am
Bobo: Have they played? How do you know this to be true?
najeh dappenfart
November 6th, 2012
1:21 am
KJ…lmao Gods conference?!!!!! U deserve kudos!
7576DAWG
November 6th, 2012
1:43 am
jsonic
I guess it would be to each his own opinion but in my opinion Alabama would beat Notre Dame by 2 to 4 touchdowns. L.S.U. would beat them by 10 to 17 points. Florida would beat them 10 point , Georgia would beat them by 10 to 14 points if the good Georgia defense showed up and if the bad defense showed up Georgia would still win by 3 points, and last Texas A&M would beat Notre Dame by 7 points if A&M’s Quarterback plays.
If Notre Dame plated in the SEC they would even make it to the Championship game there are so many teams in the SEC who are better. The 4 games that Notre Dame barely won would have all been losses in the SEC.
7576DAWG
November 6th, 2012
1:50 am
sorry, should have been If Notre Dame played in the SEC they wouldn’t even…… Can’t wait for a playoff so the want a bee’s like Notre Dame will have to beat real teams to win a Championship. The idea that Notre Dame even has a chance of winning a National Championship without even possibility playing one of the SEC power teams just about make me sick that the BCS is so inadequate at times.
Jsonic
November 6th, 2012
1:51 am
50/50 on Alabama or LSU.
The other SEC teams you listed aren’t good enough to beat the Irish.
7576DAWG
November 6th, 2012
1:57 am
Notre Dame schedules one of the hardest teams in the Pacific-12 and the Big 12 and Big -10 usually but when they schedule an SEC team it usually is the first game of the season and against one of the middle ranked teams. Play one of the power teams about the 5Th or after game and then Notre Dame will get my respect but they are not going to do that because it will tell everybody just how good or bad they really are.
Jsonic
November 6th, 2012
2:03 am
You have drank to much SEC kool-aid. Your just a hater and won’t look at the facts. Thats fine. ND will end the season in the top 5 and the Dogs won’t because they are not focused. The Irish have proven that they can overcome this season and not fold like the Dogs did against SC.
7576DAWG
November 6th, 2012
2:07 am
Jsonic
I love Georgia because I graduated from there and I hope they beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game but I am a realist and I don’t think Georgia’s Quarterback is good enough to control his emotions or has the leadership to be able to beat Alabama . That being the case I hope Alabama and Notre Dame play in the National Championship game . The line will be 10 to 15 points in favor of Alabama and will be a steal for anyone wanting to take Alabama and the points. They will beat Notre Dame 17 to 24 points. Notre Dame has barely beaten 4 teams that are not even that good. The best team you all beat was a down Oklahoma team. Alabama beat teams they are suppose to beat like a rented mule. We will see, but don’t put a lot of money on Notre Dame unless the line go’s to 24 points.
greg
November 6th, 2012
2:50 am
The SECCG is the nearest thing to a NC game until we have playoffs
greg
November 6th, 2012
2:54 am
If you asked any of the top teams who they want to play it would be ND. Easy win for Tide, Dawgs, Ducks etc, etc
7778realdawg
November 6th, 2012
3:05 am
Apparently you have no faith in our D as well. Enjoy your Alabama vs NotreDame Bcs game, naysayer!
asDumbas7576Tideboy
November 6th, 2012
3:06 am
If you were a Dawg…haha
What do you expect?
November 6th, 2012
5:58 am
And if UGA loses the SEC Championship Game to Alabama, they won’t even make a BCS Bowl game, while UF probably would with only one loss? Need to look past the records every once in a while to think about something logically. Many would vote UF in with one loss when not even winning their division, etc. Kind of like Alabama being voted into national championship game last year when not winning their division, Nebraska making national championship game against Miami when they did not win their conference, etc.
Of course, no one ever said that those who vote on rankings were too smart, or not without huge bias
THWGT
November 6th, 2012
6:39 am
Well, if Richt was putting his foot on opposing teams instead of coasting to the “kind” win it might be difference. That dawg has no real fight in him.
and TO HELL WITH GEORGIA TECH!!
Fair n Balanced
November 6th, 2012
6:42 am
This talk is premature. We gotta beat Auburn this week. Go Dawgs!
RGP
November 6th, 2012
6:48 am
Forget about the BCS title game just beat Auburn this Saturday.
Beatdown!
November 6th, 2012
6:49 am
after an alabama beatdown, GA will be 10-2 and end up in a minor bowl like last year, somewhere in florida. Alabama—heading to Miami for title 3 in 4 years!!!! RTR!!!!
SEC Fan
November 6th, 2012
7:00 am
What some folks don’t seem to understand is that the SEC hasn’t won the past six BCSCGs because they were the SEC, but because the SEC happened to host at least one of the two best teams in the nation.
When the SEC Champion is not one of the best two teams in the nation, then they won’t get to play for the National Championship. It is not a conspiracy being promoted by ESPN. Georgia has already established the fact that they are not one of the top four teams in the nation this year with their stunning defeat at the hands of South Carolina. That loss won’t disappear, even if they did win their remaining games.
Is it possible for Georgia to play for the BCSCG in 2012? Yes, it is. In order for that to happen, Georgia needs Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State to each lose at least one game. Then they would only have to defeat Alabama in the Dome. It’s possible.
Vegas Vic
November 6th, 2012
7:34 am
Awbarn 24, Georgia 21
John
November 6th, 2012
7:59 am
If Bama was “exposed” by LSU, what did Kentucky and Tennessee do to Georgia?
Buckeye Reality Check
November 6th, 2012
8:01 am
@Buckeye – Your program is known as the biggest fraud in college football over the past ten years to EVERYONE not associated with OSU….beat up on a bunch of cupcakes and then get DEMOLSIHED by the SEC in the only competition you play. With that in mind and the fact OSU is on PROBATION for CHEATING, I suggest stay on the Buckeye blogs. People lost respect for OSU the year your linebacker deliberately choked an opposing quarterback so badly that he could not stay in the game and the OSU linebacker was not tossed out of college football BY OSU. YOU have a program that will do ANYTHING to win and still cannot.
REALLY GUYS
November 6th, 2012
8:02 am
Why is this even a conversation??? UGA will NOT beat ALABAMA and will not even have an opportunity to participate in a BCS bowl!